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90 seconds at 9 am: NZ$ down to 81 USc after weak US and European jobs data hits recovery hopes; NAB passes on only 32 bps of RBA's 50 bps cut

90 seconds at 9 am: NZ$ down to 81 USc after weak US and European jobs data hits recovery hopes; NAB passes on only 32 bps of RBA's 50 bps cut

It's great to be back. Many thanks to David Chaston for doing 90 seconds at 9 am while I was away on holiday in France.

Here's my morning briefing of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including a fall in the New Zealand dollar to near a four-month low on signs of weak economic recovery in both the United States and Europe.

The New Zealand dollar fell to an overnight low of 80.89 USc and is trading around 81.1 USc in morning trade. It tends to rise and fall in line with hopes for global economic activity, given this often drives commodity prices and those currencies seen most exposed to sharp rises and falls in commodity prices. See more in our currencies section and check out our interactive chart below.

The ADP Employment report for private sector jobs in America showed just 119,000 jobs were added in April, which was less than the 177,000 forecast on average by economists, Reuters reported.  The main US jobs report for April, known as Non Farm Payrolls, is due out late on Friday night New Zealand time. It is expected to show 170,000 jobs were added in the month, which is not expected to be enough to cut the jobless rate there from 8.2%.

Meanwhile European jobs figures for March show unemployment across the 17 nation Eurozone edged up to 10.9% from 10.8% in February, emphasising again how weak the European economy is. Even Germany's unemployment rate, which had been at a two-decade low, rose to 6.8% in March, Bloomberg reported.

Essentially, the developed world remains mired in no-to-slow growth as it tries to muddle through four years into a global financial crisis caused by debt growing much faster than the underlying economy for the previous decade. This deleveraging is pressing down on global economic growth and commodity prices, frustrating hopes for a 'normal' recovery.

All this weak economic data on both sides of the Atlantic dragged global stocks lower. The S&P 500 was down about 0.3% in late trade, while European stocks fell 0.7%.

Meanwhile, in Australia, National Australia Bank was the first major bank to cut its floating mortgage rate after the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise 50 basis point cut in its official cash rate on Tuesday. NAB, which owns BNZ here, cut its mortgage rate by just 32 basis points but cut its deposit rates by a full 50 basis points, SMH.com reported.

The Treasurer Wayne Swan, labelled NAB's move an 'insult to hard-working Australians.'

ANZ NZ, which owns National Bank, reported a 13% rise in half-year underlying profits to NZ$684 million, partly powered by a 12 basis point rise in its net interest margin over the last year. This suggests there could be little justification for New Zealand banks not passing on all of any cut in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank here. See Gareth Vaughan's article on ANZ's profits on our site here.

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14 Comments

Hi Bernard, like the tan.

Hers Hugh Hendry on Europe

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hugh-hendry-europe-you-cant-make-how-bad-…

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wow.....thanks

regards

 

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Hendry is very credible and with a track record to prove it. I have always thought the death of the US dollar was greatly exaggerated. Those immigrants buying overpriced AKLD proerty won't be able to exit when the crash occurs.

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Nice one. Cheers.

Didn't get much time in the sun. A short blast in Singapore on a one day stopover. Weather in France (Strasbourg/Vannes/Paris) variable.

But a lot of fun with the family living the French lifestyle.

cheers

Bernard

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Hendry - "We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class - and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond - and it terrifies them."

 

That's what I said about Key et al the other day. They know the problem but are paralysed with fear about reform. Better to tinker and go down with everyone else than risk failure and censure by going out on a limb with "unconventional" non-mainstream ideas.

If we kick the can long enough surely everything will go back to the way it was before!

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The death nell of NZ's dairy industry?

"Stay away from milk. It is nature’s perfect food—but only if you are a calf."

"It was actually the skim milk that had the strongest risk for acne. In other studies of over 10,000 boysand girlsfrom 9 to 15 years old, there was a direct link between the amount of milk consumed and the severity of acne."

http://drhyman.com/blog/conditions/do-milk-and-sugar-cause-acne/

Quite a lot of references to studies at the bottom....

regards

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Is it really as dire as these writers make it out to be? What would be the possible impacts to NZ?  What would be the likely impact on the average citizen such as myself?

Giant Sucking Sound as Demand for Credit in Europe Collapses:Pritchard Misses the Boat - Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34384.html

Financial Tsunami Alert: Send in the Bond Squad - Ty Andros

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34347.html

U.S Financial System Still Facing Armegeddon? - EWI

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34388.html

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Watch the video embedded in andrewj's link above...

regards

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Interesting article in the NZ Herald

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10803130

Locals trying to buy houses being outbid at auctions must be getting angry knowing that the no end supply of cashed up immigrants just keep on coming.

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Cue Phil Best and Hugh on why the new immigrants are not the cause of a bubble in Auckland. Surely its those pesky urban limits

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Well they would be right.  If immigration was really the cause of high house prices then Houston, Dallas and Atlanta would have had sky-rocketing house prices over the past 10 years when their populations each increased by more than a million people (almost the population of Auckland).  However, their prices barely budged, due to their responsive land supply.  As Hugh and PhilBest have documented, inflated fringe land prices cause prices to rise throughout the city.

 

Contrary to what you seem to think, Chinese are not stupid.  They're not going to pay $2 million for a house that other bidders would only pay $200,000 for, hence why "Chinese buyers" haven't caused massive house price escalation in these affordable American markets (if you think Auckland is the only international city wealthy Chinese are moving to you're delusional).

 

However, blaming "the Chinese" is a lot easier than taking a good hard look in the mirror and understanding how New Zealand has inflicted high house prices on itself.  If urban limits are NOT the problem then why not get rid of them and see what happens?  In a country that is only 0.6% urbanised, why is it ok to force people to live crammed in like sardines?

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Meanwhile, in Australia, National Australia Bank was the first major bank to cut its floating mortgage rate after the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise 50 basis point cut in its official cash rate on Tuesday. NAB, which owns BNZ here, cut its mortgage rate by just 32 basis points but cut its deposit rates by a full 50 basis points, SMH.com reported.

 

Is this sufficient to describe the sentiments of NAB's actions?:

I want this and I want that, I want it all and I want it now, but most of all I want it paid for by you, with taxes ripped outta your greedy mean-spirited ass, by the gov't I voted for to steal from you on my behalf, because I'm entitled. From Shorty.

 

Back home we face the misery of the government borrowing NZD 480 million today to fill the coffers of Southern Response Earthquake Services Limited.

The Government has taken ownership of the entity responsible for settling claims by AMI policyholders for earthquake damage incurred prior to today. This follows Reserve Bank approval for the purchase by IAG of a new company, to which all existing AMI earthquake business and CLIC car insurance has been transferred, and which will trade under the AMI name and brand.  Read more.

 

 

 

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Typical.  Bernard's back for one day and the Top 10 at 10 is late. 

 

:)

 

Welcome back sir!

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Hey Berno, you forgot to cue the 90 at 9 musical jingle!  It has been great having the 10 at 10 on time in the last month,  perhaps you may consider having another month off?

 

Na good to have you back ;-)

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