90 seconds at 9 am: On sidelines

90 seconds at 9 am: US stocks flat ahead of US election; European stocks fall on Greek bailout fears; NZ$ firm vs US$ and A$; Markets eye Australian rate cut on Melbourne Cup day

6th Nov 12, 9:00am by Bernard Hickey

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news US stocks were marginally lower in late trade as investors settle on the sidelines ahead of the US Presidential Election later tonight. See more here at Reuters.

The US services sector expanded in October, albeit at a slower rate, in another sign of subdued recovery in the US economy. See more here at Bloomberg.

European stocks fell 1% after weak earnings results and on fears Greece may not get its latest bailout. See more here at Bloomberg.

There are two parliamentary votes scheduled before a key European summit next Monday night and the tension is rising.

Talk has risen again about a 'Grexit' of Greece from the euro. See more here at Reuters.

Elsewhere, the HSBC Markit PMI measure of activity in the Chinese services sector showed an expansion in October and indicated China's economy may have bottomed out. See more here at Bloomberg.

Signs of Chinese recovery helped boost the Australian dollar. Investors will be watching the Reserve Bank of Australia later today shortly before the running of the Melbourne Cup.

Financial markets see a 55% chance the RBA will cut its official rate by 25 basis points to 3%. See more here at SMH.com.au.

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13 Comments

by moa man | 6th Nov 12, 9:15am 1352146537

SMH seem to be having a bob each way, quite apt for Melbourne Cup Day.

Also published this morning in the SMH.

'THE Reserve Bank is expected to leave rates on hold, making this the first Melbourne Cup day in six years it will have done so.'

http://www.smh.com.au/business/westpac-urges-rate-cut-to-lift-confidenc…

by Kunst | 6th Nov 12, 9:29am 1352147361

Is a stock-market collapse imminent ?

by Stephen L | 6th Nov 12, 10:32am 1352151151

The technical people seem to describe the current situation as right on the cusp of key support levels. If the Dow goes below 13000, then it will likely head lower and take everyone with it. If the ASX goes below 4400, then it will likely head down 10%. But if they respect these positions, then there is upside by another 10%.

The fiscal cliff being solved would be positive; not so would be very difficult. China gives mixed messages; the Telegraph reporting that they could be heading back to a very conservative path, but today's news suggesting they've bottomed. And they are as key as the US.

Europe muddles along not very well.

Am not sure Obama or Romney makes any difference; but look for signals that Congress, the Senate, and the President will either work together; or are determined not to. Working together good; not doing so, bad.

So that's a completely non committal answer.

Watch the levels in the next couple of weeks after the US election. Could then head quickly one way or the other.

by Wolly | 6th Nov 12, 10:15am 1352150137

It's 2012 but fathead laws remain....

"However, the Department of Internal Affairs warns that office sweepstake prize money cannot exceed $500 and those who breach the rules could face the long arm of the law."herald

Somebody tell me why do we need a dept of Internal Affairs....exactly what good do they do....how much of our taxes do they consume enforcing stupid law made by idiots!

by scarfie | 6th Nov 12, 10:52am 1352152371

They keep the country safe from agitators like you Wolly.

Edit: Oh and Walter.

by splineman | 6th Nov 12, 11:00am 1352152839

Incredible how literally trillions of dollars of credit lent into world markets since 2008 have not stimulated a lasting solid recovery. Best game in town is still to be a bank lending on housing.

Cheers

by starfish1 | 6th Nov 12, 11:46am 1352155608

I have been advising people to take profits off the stock market at the beginning of last week. We can expect a correction of 15-20% ( a normal correction). After US elections things can get a bit ugly as we go into 2013. Don't forget to get your bets on for the Melbourne Cup - TAB received $8 million of bets last year on this one day. No surprises with Greece, maybe go for Mount Athos for the Melbourne Cup its got a kind of Greek sounding name to it.

by andyh | 6th Nov 12, 12:56pm 1352159779

Still no comment on the issues at Ross Asset Management? Apparently 900 investors on the hook for up to $430m according to stuff.co.,nz. Not small beer. All the staff have resigned and nowt been paid out for months. Wonder what sort of scheme this was, apparently used to deliver spectacular returns, sound familiar?

by iconoclast | 6th Nov 12, 1:34pm 1352162060

Ross Asset Management

The value of the internet - 21 September 1999

Amazing progress for an outfit that didn't advertise, flying under the radar, no web presence, 900 investors, $430 million under management.

Due Dilligence?

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/937858941/end-of-an-era.html

Following the purchase it dumped Ross Asset Management as the manager and has had to write down the unit price by 23 per cent because of tax problems.

by iconoclast | 6th Nov 12, 1:45pm 1352162746

Deja Vu

David Ross currently in hospital of unknown causes

In the news last week the collapse of Banksia Securities - followed by this

http://www.theage.com.au/business/untimely-death-clouds-banksia-probe-20121101-28mr4.html

Shades of Kenneth Lay of Enron, and Alan Hubbard of South Canterbury Finance

by Mike B | 6th Nov 12, 4:52pm 1352173966

My gut feeling tells me

There will be NO Grexit

The DOW will hit 14K next year (2013)

Just my gut feeling

by Gummy Bear Hero | 3rd Feb 13, 4:05pm 1359860756

No Greek exit , and the Dow at 14000 ...... 2 from 2 ! .... well done ...

...... and Walter Kunz was totally wrong , there was no liniment collapse on the stockmarket !

by Mike B | 6th Nov 12, 5:12pm 1352175161

Oh! if you can't get the Greeks to overthrow their government then you are dreaming if you think it will happen here or anywhere else in the Western world