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Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: John Key's huuuge specs; 'Stealing' from Lombard; Australia's boomtowns; Dilbert

Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: John Key's huuuge specs; 'Stealing' from Lombard; Australia's boomtowns; Dilbert

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 past 4 pm, brought to you in association with New Zealand Mint for your reading pleasure.

I welcome your additions and comments below, or please send suggestions for Thursday's Top 10 at 10 via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

Remember that registered commenters can more easily include links out in their comments. Use the box in the right hand column to register. We're turning off unregistered comments from September 12.

I'll pop any surplus suggestions I get into the comment stream under the Top 10.

1. 'It was so cheap we almost stole it' - Remember Lombard Finance?

It was the Wellington-based property financier that imploded under the weight of its European sports car driving CEO Michael Reeves and former National big wig Chairman Doug Graham.

Now the Brooklyn Rise townhouse development that was its biggest exposure has been sold to two very happy chaps. Here's Hank Schouten at the Dom Post with this rollicking yarn.

A developer and a real estate agent borrowed some money to buy the development for 6% of the amount Lombard lent to the project. They're thrilled.

Lombard Finance investors may not be.

A big part of the trouble-plagued Brooklyn Rise housing development, on which Lombard Finance is owed more than $40 million, has been sold by Lombard's receiver for just $2.25m. And the delighted buyers – developer John Mouroukis and his real estate agent partner Peter Barzukas – are set to recoup almost all their investment within a few months just by finishing off and selling six nearly complete houses.

Ironically, the aversion that bankers now have to investing in distressed property helped the pair pick it up for what looks like a bargain.

"I don't want to say I stole it, but what helped was that there is no money available from the banks, so we got it for a very attractive price," Mr Mouroukis said.

It took four months to raise the money and he had to get it from a second-tier lender – a finance company.

2. Did Forsyth Barr do very well? - Forsyth Barr are the Dunedin based investment banking and broking operation that recommended many investors put their money into South Canterbury Finance and were also advising Allan Hubbard on the potential sale of the Timaru finance company near the end.

There are now questions about how much Forbarr knew about the very lucrative opportunity to buy South Canterbury bonds cheaply and then be paid back in full by the government almost immediately. James Weir has the story in the DomPost. Forsyth Barr deny any wrongdoing.

There would have been a killing in the NZ$125m tranche of SCF bonds that expired after the guarantee in December 2012, which were selling at 73c with a face value of $1 recently. Anyone who bought at 73c will get a payout of $1, which a source said was a "spectacular return" in a short time.

Market sources pointed out that Forsyth Barr's custodian companies for investors appeared to have bought millions of South Canterbury bonds between the end of June and the end of July, according to market trading figures.

However, Forsyth Barr's Mr Paviour-Smith said that while the figures appeared "intriguing", they were not right. There was little change between the holdings at the end of May and the end of July. In other words, the June figures "appeared to be in error", he said.

"It is curious and frustrating and it is misleading." It appeared Forsyth Barr did some "smart buying", getting the bonds at a big discount and then getting the government bailout to make the investment up to $1, but that was wrong. "We just have not been active buying millions of bonds in these securities," Mr Paviour-Smith said. Any actual changes were "pretty small".

3. 'Oops. Cover up the papers Sandy!' - Adam Bennett at the Herald has some very sharp eyed contacts on an Air New Zealand flight who spotted the details of who might have been the bidders for South Canterbury Finance.

On Tuesday evening, a Herald source saw Mr Maier on an Air NZ flight leafing through a document which the source was able to identify as an "agreement for sale and purchase to sell South Canterbury Finance Ltd to Permanent Investments Ltd ".

The source said the document indicated a sale price of $2.65 a share, which is equivalent to $1.57 billion - more than the amount Mr Maier yesterday said the company might fetch if sold as a going concern.

4. 'The market's wrong about likely sovereign default and is usually wrong'- The IMF has written a paper saying that "Default in Today’s Advanced Economies is Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely.

The risk of debt restructuring is currently significantly overestimated. Although it is generally wise to assume that market developments reflect economic fundamentals, market overreaction does occur from time to time, with adverse implications for countries’ borrowing costs and debt dynamics.

For example, considering data on sovereign bond spreads over the past decades, markets sounded false alarms in the vast majority of episodes.

5. This is not a bank you'd want to work for - A German bank, Nordbank, is being investigated for doing amazing things to get rid of a senior employee, Der Spiegel reports.

Child pornography planted on a work computer, a house break-in and illegal wiretapping: The leadership of Germany's HSH Nordbank stands accused of going to great lengths to rid itself of unwanted senior officials. Prosecutors in both New York and Germany have launched investigations.

6. It smells like a bubble - A harbourside house with six bedrooms in Sydney has just sold for A$52 million. It was previously bought for NZ$14 million in 2001, the Sydney Morning Herald reports. Even the gardener has a bathroom.

SYDNEY'S prestige property market has woken from its hibernation with the reputed $52 million record sale of a Point Piper harbourfront property, Villa Veneto. The bullish deal almost doubles the highest sale since the onset of the global financial crisis in September 2008.

The grand five-storey Italianate villa owned by recruitment entrepreneur Andrew Banks and his wife, Andrea, was finished in 2004, having taken two years and $15 million to build on its dress circle Wolseley Road location.

Designed by the architect Michael Suttor, the six-bedroom house comes with a 21-person lift, home theatre, butler's pantry, glass-roofed dining room, sauna, art gallery, gym, linen chute and library. It comes with nine bathrooms - including one for the gardener.

7. Ouch - Yahoo Finance briefly showed the gold price hit US$3,400 an ounce yesterday, Infowars reports. It was wrong of course, but caused a ruckus nevertheless. HT Nicola via email.

Investors were briefly panicked yesterday when the Yahoo Finance website indicated that gold had soared to over $3400 dollars an ounce, an instant jump of 175 per cent. Possible reasons for the shocking spike ranged from a simple mistake to a secret signal being communicated to insiders as to where the commodity was really heading.

Just after 11am eastern time, the Yahoo Finance website gold graph indicated that the precious metal had jumped from $1235.60 an ounce to a whopping $3401.50 an ounce in the space of minutes. The commodity then quickly returned to its previous level almost immediately.

The only event that could precede such a massive and instantaneous jump in gold would have to be something on the scale of a nuclear war or a sudden and total collapse of the U.S. dollar.

8. Boomtown - Bloomberg reports, the medium house price in Karratha in remote Western Australia is A$775,000 and the average rent for a four bedroom house there is three times that of an average apartment in Manhattan.

“During ballots people would literally yell out ‘bingo’ if they got a block of land because instantly they knew they’d made A$100,000 ($90,100),” Eaton, 43, said in between monitoring workers at a building site in the town of 20,000 people.

“They’d build a house on it and their profit would go up to A$250,000.” The housing shortage in a region that’s one of the world’s biggest suppliers of iron ore and natural gas is driving up costs for companies such as Chevron Corp. and BHP Billiton Ltd. as they mine raw materials to feed China’s industrialization. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, was forced to lease seven-year-old cruise liner MS Finnmarken to house 350 workers at its A$43 billion Gorgon gas project.  

9. Totally irrelevant video - Here's a video from 1987 with a 25 year old John Key. The glasses he wears are huuuge. It's well worth watching to the end to get a feel of what our Prime Minister was like at 25.

10. Totally relevant video - Here's what US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was saying about the US Housing market in 2006. No bubble. Nothing to see here. No worries. HT Gertraud.

"This is a localised problem and not something that's going to affect the economy," he said then of the US housing market.

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25 Comments

LOL Ben Bernanke. What a winker - and folk (and the markets) still take him seriously?

Re: Forsythe Barr - they may have done their clients in the know a favour with the SCF bond buying play but no doubt they will wish to forget they were principle hawkers of the 2006 SCF preference share issue which has cost investors a cool $100m.......

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The Key video  speaks volumes about the path and the man.......a long way from dealing in NZD  forex........... now the man manipulates it as well.

The one thing that is constant about this character type is that the appetite to control and capitalise is without boundary.

 Politics ...as he will find out does not always play to the rule of predictability .

No disrespect to his achievements are intended when I say I often perceive mock sincerity and a lack of genuine humility.

Still you don't get to the top without treading on a few bugs along the way....eh..? 

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#2  This lovely little add-on in xtra today:

"Some businesses have wasted no time in capitalising on the receivership of South Canterbury Finance.

Investors are covered by the Government's deposit guarantee scheme and they'll be getting a cheque soon which will result in a sudden cash injection into the economy.

Forsyth Barr has taken out an advertisement in the Christchurch Press today specifically targeting SCF investors.

It's holding a seminar in a couple of weeks advising them on where now to re-invest."

 Good of them. to put themselves out like this for Ma and Pa Schmuck. So fast after the receivership and payout news.

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Anon ......cute and clever he may be.........but have no doubt he is ruthless and self serving.

Is that a crime.......? ....no..... it is an asset in the world of sharks he was teethed in.

Bit when I tell you he would sell the ground beneath your feet and tell you he was doing you a favour............you can bank on it...........he would.

difference between Key and a use car salesman.......a giant leap in acumen. 

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FYI here's the IMF report which says NZ's fiscal situation is much healthier than other nations.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2010/spn1011.pdf

"The probability that Greece, Italy, Japan, and Portugal have additional fiscal space is low. Next are Iceland, Ireland and Spain, where the probability that these countries have at least some additional fiscal space is about 50–70 percent (rising to more than 80 percent for Spain using the model-implied interest rate). For the United States and the United Kingdom, the probability of any remaining fiscal space is about 70–80 percent. Australia, Denmark, Israel, Korea, New Zealand and Norway have the highest probabilities of some additional fiscal space."

Bill English says here this confirms NZ's prudent approach to debt

http://beehive.govt.nz/release/imf+confirms+govt039s+prudent+approach+debt

cheers

Bernard

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steven

sorry i don't follow you, what causes ppl to sell houses is the inability to service the debt, no-one makes a rational decision to walk away from their abode, so the 'general' state of the economy has a lot to do with it.

the downside is that if house prices start falling it means TWO things, 1 that the current owners can't service the debt and 2 there is little money/credit in system to allow anyone to buy.

since money = debt all this harping on about reducing debt/deleverging is not actually a good thing for the hoi polloi, the decrease in money velocity means those with assets keep it (albeit less of 'it', but still own the assets/wealth) and those without assets starve. 

be careful what you wish for

Neven

 

 

 

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True enough Ian.

Govt. debt to GDB, it has been increasing at 9%+/year- very similar to the big bad boys - UK, US etc so enough of the self congratulation Double Dipton.

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Pun intended?

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Gees Bernard............ their not buying you lunch of late are they....?

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The fall in UK house prices is accelerating - down a hefty 0.9% month on month (Nationwide), second month of falls, and with winter coming up looks like the UK property double dip is getting well established:


http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=254123

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The IMF says sovereign default is unlikely and that history shows market ( predictions of default ) are usually wrong. Also that NZ fiscal headroom position is, after all, not too bad.  

Well, we here on Int.co know this to be drivel don't we. I mean night after night we read in this authoritative voice of the people that the whole rotten soverign debt system is only  a heartbeat away from a massive domino collapse. That it is coming any day now. Dig in the lawn, plant veggies, pull the curtains and hide until the evil be overpast.   

Coming on top of the Aussie consumer spending increase news of recent days and some  bizzarely upbeat predictions for our part of the world , I'm confused.

They are just messing with our minds aren't they ?.   

 

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I think this morning's comment is more in line with reality.

The third most indebted country in the world, after Iceland and Hungary.

So it's 'private rather than Govt'. 

So what?

It's debt

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and the reason is clear:   We need the govt to be cashed-up so it can bail us out.

You see, sometimes our system doesn't work.

We can't understand why, and so we blame folk who didn't follow us betterer.

It has a providential spin-off for us too - we get richer ant the poor get the pitcher.

This is very important to us. We are short, in many ways, and we need this for compe...compen...compensa.....instead of that.

 

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Govt debt is GOOD.  It represents the amount of money which is currently in PRIVATE circulation.

Govt surplus is BAD.  It represents a withdrawal of monetary supply from private circulation.

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Private debt and public (sovereign govt debt) are NOT the same.

Private companies and idividuals are USERS of the currency, where as a sovereign fiat currency issuing govt is the monopoly ISSUER of the currency and is never in danger of being insolvent.

Any sovereign default will be VOLUNTARY only (not to mention stupid).

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Good point: Greece COULD be in danger of default because it no longer issues/controls it's own currency.  Think of Greece like California in the USA.  California can go bust, but in theory, the USA Fed cannot because it controls/issues the USD.

The ECB issues/controls all Euros is NOT accountable to any elected representatives in the EU.

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Mr Bernanke is the biggest expert in Depresions in the world and he is tayloring his own one...a big one.

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About the nice house.... What a nice pit, roughly 1:5 proffit in  ten years. I want to make that kind of deal, but I think that as much as it reflects a bubble it also makes a case for galloping inflation  because the house has gone nowhere in the past ten years but credit has expanded beyond imagination... so maybe that is the fair price because somebody was prepared to pay for it,.. just an idea because I know nothing about Real Estate.... I know nothing about painting too  but I think that the last painting by one of those famous early 20th Century painters went for over 100 M USD. All this shows that the rich will be the rich no matter what. Maybe that painting is hanging in the gardener's bedroom.

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The on going house apreciation in Aussie will end once the Supar Proffit Tax is implemented  The Aussie Government HAS to do it because you can't have the ammounts of money that they are  producing flooding the economy at that pace. It's just common sense. Other mining countries in South America do not have the problem because most of the mining revenues are controled by the State and most of them have a counter ciclic savings policy where funds are invested outside the country, that is how they are able to keep a good balance, inflation in check and a better Asset/ Value ratio than in Australia. I think that Australians are about to  learn that success is tougher to manage... to much bubbly mate.

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NZ's massive private debt is NOT "productive" debt. Most of it is in bubble-value mortgages.

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ITEM 8 - Bloomberg Reports - the medium house price in Karratha in remote Western Australia is A$775,000 and the average rent for a four bedroom house there is three times that of an average apartment in Manhattan.

“During ballots people would literally yell out ‘bingo’ if they got a block of land because instantly they knew they’d made A$100,000 ($90,100),” Eaton, 43, said in between monitoring workers at a building site in the town of 20,000 people.

“They’d build a house on it and their profit would go up to A$250,000.” The housing shortage in a region that’s one of the world’s biggest suppliers of iron ore and natural gas is driving up costs for companies such as Chevron Corp. and BHP Billiton Ltd. as they mine raw materials to feed China’s industrialization. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, was forced to lease seven-year-old cruise liner MS Finnmarken to house 350 workers at its A$43 billion Gorgon gas project......"

(QUOTE ENDS)

EH? Running out of land somewhere in AUSTRALIA? Come ON. If you want any extreme example of what causes property bubbles, this is IT. It speaks volumes that no-one involved in this vignette has been able to crash through the bleedin' obvious problem.

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The only reason property prices do not crash as fast as in the bubble markets of the USA, in NZ, Australia, or anywhere else, is that we do not have their absurdly pro-cyclical non-recourse mortgage laws. Of COURSE every man and his dog is going to walk away from their mortgage the minute it goes underwater, if the lending institution is legally bound to swallow the negative equity.

There isn't even anything stopping these people from buying another home at the new, lower prices; then walking away from THAT; and repeating the process ad infinitum.

It's the old, old story. "Get the rich/businesses/the finance sector" laws always end up having costly unintended consequences.

Having said all that, other nations with housing bubbles are in for long, slow, painful freezes  in their property markets.  Goodness knows what the economy-wide consequences are. Even the reduced mobility of workforces who are tied to unsaleable homes and OTT mortgages can't be good for the economy.

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ITEM 10: "Bernancke; Why are we still listening to this guy"?

 

Yeah, It's not for a lack of people who DID get the bubble RIGHT.

 

http://www.economicgrowth.org.nz/artman/publish/article_1336.shtml

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Templeton is a blast from the mediocre past. Lobby group? Funded by?

Like minded??????? 

I guess. Not much bears a certain superficial resemblance to stuff-all.

I'm on record (County minutes, circa '86) as predicting TSWHTF about now.

It was because we'd plateau in fuel.........

But that is something real - these folk will be a long way from that.

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#5, does anyone really take what the IMF says seriously. Did those muppets ever predict anything before it happened ?

Did they see any of the financial collapse, bubbles....I think not.

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