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Friday's Top 10 at 10 with NZ Mint: How Timaru helped Dave Henderson; The widening wealth gulf; Raise taxes to boost growth; Dilbert

Friday's Top 10 at 10 with NZ Mint: How Timaru helped Dave Henderson; The widening wealth gulf; Raise taxes to boost growth; Dilbert
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Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 past 7 pm, brought to you in association with New Zealand Mint for your reading pleasure.It's been a tad busy today. What a week.

I welcome your additions and comments below, or please send suggestions for Monday's Top 10 at 10 via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

Remember that registered commenters can more easily include links out in their comments. Use the box in the right hand column to register. We're turning off unregistered comments from September 12.

I'll pop any surplus suggestions I get into the comment stream under the Top 10.

1. 'We're here to help' - It turns out South Canterbury Finance was very helpful to Dave Henderson.

He's the Christchurch property developer who wrote the book the spawned the film 'We're here to help'.

Anne Gibson has the story at the NZHerald.

Attempts are now being made to sell Auckland's five-star luxury Hyatt and Hotel So in Christchurch to recoup some of the $1.7 billion taxpayer bailout to investors in SCF after the disastrous lending. Hyatt is SCF-owned and Hotel So owes SCF millions.

SCF took the risky end of many loans, taking a subordinated position so major trading banks can sweep in and scoop up whatever cash is available to the first-ranking charge-holder.

Some of the biggest losses are expected to come from disastrous loans to three companies behind Hotel So by developer Dave Henderson's Property Ventures.  

2. 'It was a steal' - Yesterday I pointed to a story by Hank Schouten at the Dominion Post about the two property developers in Wellington who bought a distressed development off the receivers for Lombard for 6% of the loan. They said then it was almost a steal. It turns out one of the developers know a thing or two about 'steals'... Here's Hank again.

One of the two men involved in an attempt to revive the trouble-plagued Brooklyn Rise housing development has been bankrupted twice and jailed for fraud. John Mouroukis told The Dominion Post he bought a big part of the stalled subdivision from the receiver of Lombard Finance for $2.25 million – a fraction of the $42m that been sunk on the project. It transpires he has a history of financial problems.

He was bankrupted in 1995 and again in 2000. The bankruptcy proceedings in 1995 were taken by Bank of South of Australia for $1.5m when Mr Mouroukis was unable to meet payments on two Newtown commercial properties. In 1997 he was sentenced to six months' jail for obtaining $50,000 by arranging a bogus mortgage.

Mr Mouroukis acknowledged yesterday he was also involved in a legal dispute with the mortgagee of his own home. Bluestone Mortgages advertised the Miramar house for mortgagee sale after debts owed on two other properties were added to his mortgage.  

3. 'Hubbard's a winner' - South Canterbury Finance preference shareholder John Denley still thinks the world of Allan Hubbard, Marta Steeman reports at The Press.

"I've been in his house. It's never been redecorated for years. It's such a shame really, because he just didn't like spending. He used to always say that. Money to him was never personal, that's for sure.

"I always thought his life was Monopoly. It was never money, it was just sitting down playing the game. That was always my thought and I mean that in the nicest possible way. Maybe it just got too much (for Hubbard)."

4. Australians go a' gloatin' - Malcolm Maiden writes in The Age about the collapse of South Canterbury Finance and about how it is good news for the big four Australian banks. However, Maiden missed the real silver lining. The NZ$1.6 billion payout to investors will mostly be recycled into the banks. These days the banks are most interested in finding local funding rather than finding more borrowers.

The non-bank finance sector led the financing of New Zealand's developer boom (this week's casualty, South Canterbury, steered clear of property lending for many years, but wound up having about 25 per cent of its loan book exposed), and the banks will not revive that part of their business.

But when New Zealand's economy recovers, the farmers, businesses, lease companies and others who relied on the non-banks for less risky finance will once again be looking for loans, and the big four Australian banks will be very hard for them to avoid.  

5. Some are a' worryin' though - Some Australians are beginning to work out their housing is overvalued and this might be a problem. Oh dear. Here's Adam Schwab at Crickey.

Like shares last year, the property bubble is starting to wobble. Property purchasers are starting to realise the game is up. Melbourne clearance rates have slipped from more than 80% to join Sydney and Brisbane at less than 50% as vendors fail to adequately lower prices to meet the market as the perfect storm approaches.

Negative growth, low inflation, high unemployment and tougher lending standards mean that Australia’s residential property Ponzi scheme is about to collapse, just like Bernie’s.  

6. The haves (a lot more) and the have nots (a lot less) - This piece by David Ruccio at Real World Economics Review shows the enormous widening of the wealth gap in America over the last 30 years. It makes you wonder when Americans are going to catch on and revolt. If this was France in 1789 then there would be a few worried people. And it's different here right?

In other words, the bottom 80 percent lost ground and only the top 20 percent gained. And, within the latter group, the top 1 percent made out like bandits.

Why would anyone be in doubt that (a) there was a dramatic change in the distribution of income between 1979 and 2008 and (b) this was one of the causes of the current crises?  

 

7. 'Just one euro' - Irish truck driver Michael Dempsey is so desperate to sell his 4 bedroom new home in Ireland he'll accept any offer over 1 euro, the Irish Independent reports. HT Brendan via email.

It would have been worth €320,000 at the height of the boom, but the collapse in the economy has wrecked his plans to sell or let the bungalow.

"It's a beautiful new house with four bedrooms. It's a shame no one is living in it," he said.

Michael added: "When I decided to build it banks were giving out money all over the place. I went in at one stage looking for e25,000 and came out with €50,000.

8. The difference between China and the rest - China is about to force mobile phone users to register their name and formal identification whenever they buy a SIM card, the China economic review reports.. No more anonymous pre-paid phones. The last sentence was curious. Australia too? Who knew?

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said the new rules are part of the government's efforts to prevent spam, pornographic messages and rampant fraud through the network. Under the new rules, newspaper stands will also be banned from selling SIM cards.

Some concerns have been raised over privacy issues, however. The anonymity that protects fraudsters and spammers also allows mobile phone users to freely share information without fear of recrimination. State media reports noted that ID registration for cellphones is required in neighboring India, Japan, Singapore and Australia.  

9. Hike taxes to boost growth - Here's an interesting idea from Larry Beinhart at Huffington Post. He wrote Wag the Dog. HT John Walley via email.

Coming out of World War One we had a top marginal tax rate over 70%. From 1921-25 it was cut, in steps, down to 25%. There was a boom, particularly in the fiscal sector. The crash came in 1929.

When Ronald Reagan came into office in 1981, the top marginal rate was, once again, 70%. Reagan started cutting in 1982, down to 50%, then to 38.5% in 1987, and 28% in 1988. There was a boom in the fiscal sector. In the mid-eighties the collapse began, and over 1,600 banks failed. There was a huge bailout.

It was followed by the recession of 1990.

George H.W. Bush raised the rate to 31%. It cost him re-election. Then, under Bill Clinton, the top rate went up to 39.6%.

That was followed by the longest sustained period of economic growth in modern times.

The historical facts are that high top marginal tax rates correlate with a very healthy economy. That high tax rates on the rich don't impede growth. For whatever reasons, they promote growth. Low taxes on the rich are unhealthy. Tax cuts for the rich are dangerous.

10. Totally relevant video - Greg Morton sings along to the Candy Man song... "Who can take tomorrow, spend it all today, who can take your income and tax it all, Obamaman, Yes Obamaman can, Obama man can because he mixes it with hope and makes the world feel good..."

HT IOU in today's 90 at 9.

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14 Comments

"Australia’s residential property Ponzi scheme is about to collapse, just like Bernie’s."

Vibenna  "What rot"

Well I'd be climbing right on in there then Vi, just check back in 12 months, let us know how it's all working out for ya.. 

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I switch off whenever I see "Huffington Post".

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I have a short experience in Housing Bubbles but I have noticed that just before bursting there is a lot of buzz about new price high records settings and a very bullish / arrogant mood transpires ammong  the Real Estate business people. Does that describe the Australian Housing Mkt ?

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"Grim Statistics from the USA

The official unemployment rate is 9.6%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is................. It reflects how unemployment feels to the average Joe on the street. it is 16.7%, up .2 from last month."

 

 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22423.html

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And the New Zealand Government's plan for peak oil...."errr what plan...who said we needed a plan....it won't be a problem here...nothing to see here...move along please"

 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22419.html

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If you want to be able to identify property price bubbles, what would you use OTHER than median multiples?


All the other optimistic analytical devices have been developed by bubble cheerleaders who naturally  regard the median multiple as an inconvenient truth.

 

The reason things "crash" dramatically in the bubble regions of the USA (only about 25% of the total US , by the way) is that they have non-recourse mortgage laws which are an obvious incentive for people to walk out of their homes and leave the lending institutions carrying the lost equity. Expect adjustments in other countries to be slow but still prolonged and (S)painful. (yuk, yuk, yuk).

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COMPARE:

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/priced-within-city-li…

"Affordable housing close to the action is available, you just need to accept some compromises.

Double-digit jumps in Sydney house prices during the past 12 months have left many buyers feeling locked out of the market.

However, there are still suburbs close to the inner city where houses can be bought for less than $800,000, some less than $600,000......" etc

 

(IS THAT A SICK JOKE OR SINCERE?)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The system wouldn't let me post the "COMPARE" item no 2:

 

http://www.newhomesource.com/communitydetail/builder-750/community-4809…

 

There is no reason new houses at that price can't be done almost anywhere in the world, but ESPECIALLY Aussie or NZ.

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I did 1453 sq ft for $50,000 NZ.

It's not the house that is the issue.

But there IS a reason that the process can't be continued. and from what I see, those houses aren't particularly sustainable. Looks like energy is consumed by what may well be efficient appliances, but in appliance abundance.

And proximity to I-level hways and airports, is of short-term use.

What's it like as growing land?  Or is this like the nonsense on the periphery of Las Vegas?

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Thanks for the link Phil. Those prices are absurd, $800,000, one bathroom, in the flightpath, no on-site garage OR parking and a miserable 250m2 site. Incredibly they had to search for a year and engage a special agent before they found this "bargain".

What is equally absurd is the assumption that the conditions that encourage ordinary working stiffs to believe they can afford this sort of thing are going to continue.  These cities are literally bursting with folk receiving huge money for doing what amounts to non jobs.

The simultaneous bursting of the Aussie and Chinese property and credit bubbles will be one to watch.

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Beware the markets...head for cash.

 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/economy-suffers-slowdown-as-double-dip-looms-2070141.html

 "Economists fear the dangers of a double-dip recession are "growing alarmingly" after the release of the latest "grim" survey of business confidence in the service sector, and evidence of collapsing order books in the construction industry.

As the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee prepares to meet for its next session next week, the news adds to the pressure on the Bank to resume its programme of "quantitative easing", the direct injection of money into the economy".

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absolutely not.

coloursteel/polystyrene/coloursteel panels, 100mm walls. 125mm roof.

You can have any coloursteel colour, each side.

They cut it from your plans, it's numbered, just a kitset really.

For a 135 sq m, two storey house, the walls and roof turned up on one truck, every last flashing, every coloured rivet, all silicon, even the spoutings,

for .......wait for it .......... $16,100. (2004-5)

The panels took four (two teenage boys two parents) people 10.5 hours, to put up.

There's a macrocarpa post-and-beam portal structure which takes the snow-loading (in compression) and carries a mezzanine floor.

Interior walls are single ply sheets (17mm flooring ply) screwed to 100x100 macro posts @ 1200 centres.

No gib, no stopping, no painting (like, none).

Double glazed, but for non-openers I have a method of trapping the glass to posts (or studs) using a substantial vertical batten, with top and bottom flashings. Only costs the circa $100 per sqm for the glass

Cross-bracing of glass north wall is by stainless rigging wire and turnbuckles.

OK?

Oh, and off-grid electrics which cost $,4,200 are included in  the $50,000. As is the bulldozer, water and septic.

Not labour though.

.

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Why not to start a business in the usa

  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22442.html

 By Porter Stanberry

Saturday, August 21, 2010

I’d like to make you a business offer.  Seriously.  This is a real offer.  In fact, you really can’t turn me down, as you’ll come to understand in a moment…

Here’s the deal.  You’re going to start a business or expand the one you’ve got now.  It doesn’t really matter what you do or what you’re going to do.  I’ll partner with you no matter what business you’re in – as long as it’s legal.

But I can’t give you any capital – you have to come up with that on your own.  I won’t give you any labor – that’s definitely up to you.  What I will do, however, is demand you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you’re allowed to operate your business.  That’s half of your profits.

Now in return for my rules, I’m going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business each year.  Half seems fair, doesn’t it?  I think so.  Of course, that’s half of your profits.

You’re also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you’ve got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how.  Come on, you’re my partner.  It’s only “fair”. 

Now…after you’ve put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business, and after you’ve worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more along the way each year), you might decide you’d like to cash out – to finally live the good life.

Whether or not this is “fair” – some people never can afford to retire – is a different argument.  As you partner, I’m happy for you to sell whenever you’d like…because our agreement says, if you sell, you have to pay me an additional 20% of whatever the capitalized value of the business is at that time.

I know…I know… you put up all the original capital.  You took all the risks.  You put in all of the labor.  That’s all true.  But I’ve done my part, too.  I’ve collected 50% of the profits each year.  And I’ve always come up with more rules for you to follow each year.  Therefore, I deserve another, final 20% slice of the business. Oh…and one more thing…

Even after you’ve sold the business and paid all of my fees…I’d recommend buying lots of life insurance.  You see, even after you’ve been retired for years, when you die, you’ll have to pay be 50% of whatever you estate is worth.

After all, I’ve got lots of partners and not all of them are as successful as you and your family.  We don’t think its “fair” for your kids to have such a big advantage.  But if you buy enough life insurance, you can finance this expense for your children.

All in all, if you’re a very successful entrepreneur…if you’re one of the rare, lucky, and hard-working people who can create a new company, employ lots of people, and satisfy the public…you’ll end up paying me more than 75% of your income over your life.

Thanks so much.

I’m sure you’ll think my offer is reasonable and happily partner with me…but it doesn’t really matter how you feel about it because if you ever try to stiff me – or cheat me on any of my fees or rules- I’ll break down your door in the middle of the night, threaten you and your family with heavy, automatic weapons, and throw you in jail.

That’s how civil society is supposed to work right?  This is America, isn’t it?  That’s the offer America gives its entrepreneurs.  And the idiots in Washington wonder why there are no new jobs…

Regards,  Porter Stanberry

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