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Tuesday's Top 10 at 10: Hong Kong's housing bubble crackdown; Australia's housing bubble nerves; The 'unforeclosure'; 'Let Ireland go bankrupt'; Dilbert

Tuesday's Top 10 at 10: Hong Kong's housing bubble crackdown; Australia's housing bubble nerves; The 'unforeclosure'; 'Let Ireland go bankrupt'; Dilbert
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Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 past 2 pm, brought to you in association with New Zealand Mint for your reading pleasure.

I welcome your additions and comments below, or please send suggestions for Wednesday's Top 10 at 10 via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

I'll pop any surplus suggestions I get into the comment stream.

1. Hong Kong's crackdown - Hong Kong has announced new stamp duties and deposit limits on house sales to cool down an overheated market, Bloomberg reports.

This is supposedly the most free market country in the world but it too finds clever ways to cool down its housing market when it needs to.

Yet in New Zealand, we let ours run away off the leash for years on end, destroying our export sector and unbalancing our economy as we go...

What's wrong with a stamp duty and regulation of deposits here?

Businessman William Yue was close to buying an apartment worth about HK$11 million ($1.4 million) in Hong Kong’s Kowloon Tong district. He may not be able to afford that after the government imposed additional taxes and raised down-payments to curb prices that have surged to a 13-year high.

Financial Secretary John Tsang on Nov. 19 announced some of the toughest measures yet in a yearlong battle to rein in home values that soared more than 50 percent since the beginning of 2009, sparking outcries that housing was becoming unaffordable and prompting the International Monetary Fund to warn last week that asset inflation may derail the city’s economy.

“The down payment we need to pay would probably be a bit out of our budget,” 58-year-old Yue said yesterday.

“Imposing the extra stamp duty should’ve been enough to curb speculation. All this does is hurt real users like us.”

Weekend sales of used homes fell 83 percent from the previous week, according to data from Centaline Property Agency Ltd. Homes sold within six months of purchase incur a 15 percent stamp duty from Nov. 20, and down payments will rise to 50 percent for properties costing HK$12 million or more, and to 40 percent for those between HK$8 million and HK$12 million.  

2. 'Looks like a bubble to me' - Leith van Onselen at Unconventional Economist points out the Australian Treasury is now worried that Australia's housing market is a bubble waiting to burst.

It looks like the ducks are forming into a row.

The Congo line of analysts and commentators calling Australia's housing bubble has been growing longer recently. Now the Australian Treasury - the main custodian of Australia's economic policy - appears to have joined the chorus. In what should ring alarm bells, and scare the heck out of anyone with a highly leveraged property position, this is what the Treasury has had to say about the matter:

Phil Garton, the manager of Treasury's Macro Financial Linkages Unit, sent colleagues a draft paper on the rise in household debt, prospects for further growth in the debt-to-income ratio and the potential implications of slower household debt growth. His email prompted an exchange with Steve Morling, currently the general manager of the Domestic Economy Division, who argued the paper should "make a bit more about the risks".

"The elephant in the room is house prices or more specifically the risk of a precipitous drop in them, perhaps from an external shock or perhaps from their own internal dynamics when affordability constraints or capacity debt levels see prices and expectations of house prices start to move in the opposite direction," Mr Morling wrote on June 15.

"(I) know there are very supportive fundamentals, but prices rose by 50-60 per cent in three to four years in the early part of this decade, with largely unchanged fundamentals, so they can have a life of their own. "And given what's happened elsewhere I'm far less sanguine about this - and the interplay with debt - than in the past."

3. The unforeclosure - AngryBear reports there's a new phenomenon happening in the United States where a bank forecloses on the home owner, but then fails to take title on the property, leaving it rotting and empty.

No owner equals no property taxes paid, no insurance, and probably no maintenance. The property is left to rot, damaging the neighborhood. Ironically, due to the failure of the bank to take title, the former owner may still be on the hook for property taxes, and not know it.

4. 'Let Ireland go bankrupt' - Renowned currency trade Jim Rogers reckons Ireland should be allowed to go bankrupt. HT Zerohedge and Gertraud. Here's his thinking:

Jim Rogers says what everyone except a few bankers and corrupt (soon to be unemployed) politicians grasp: namely, that Ireland should go bankrupt.

Instead, the government is forcing the country into a tough spot, where social tensions are flaring, and could erupt into an all out social conflict, confirming that the interests of its people is the last thing the Irish government cares about, and is only concerned about preserving what is now virtually proven to be a failed model, and prevent losses at all major German and English banks.

Quote from Rogers: "It would teach everybody a good lesson, and in the end Europe would be stronger for it, and the EUR would be stronger...

"You can not spend staggering amounts of money that you don't have of other people's money that you don't have because somebody has to pay the piper. This is ludicrous. This will cripple the Irish economy for years to come. In the future Ireland will be crippled because everything they earn will go to pay off old debt. There is no reason why taxpayers around Europe or in Ireland should pay for other people's mistakes."

"The bondholders and the stockholders of banks should lose money"

5. Ireland for sale - Click here for a bigger version HT Gertraud

6. Chinese getting jumpy - Market News reports a member of China's central bank has suggested China could start selling US Treasury bonds in response to the Fed's QEII plans.

China could sell down some of its holdings of U.S. Treasuries in response to the Federal Reserve's decision to expand its quantitative easing program, an advisor to the People's Bank of China has suggested. Li Daokui, a Beijing-based economist and member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee, told China Central Television that the $600 billion program will trigger U.S. inflation and create losses for China.

"In order to rescue its economy, the U.S. government printed a lot of paper and once their monetary easing takes effect, they need to consider compensating other countries," he said. "We can sell some of our Treasury bonds."

7. 'You can't keep a good man down' - Fresh from being ejected from the offices of South Canterbury Finance as recently as November 5 (why did it take so long?), the Timaru Herald reports Alan Hubbard is now looking for a new office for somewhere to work with his notebooks and post it notes... There's even been talk in the town he wants to set up a new finance company....sheeesh

Any landlord should be asking for the rent money up front.

The SFO is expected to make a decision on whether or not to charge Mr Hubbard this week. On Thursday night there will be a book launch for Virginia Green's biography of Mr Hubbard at Mountainview High School Auditorium, at 6pm.

8. Finally - Some bond holders and shareholders take the pain of an Irish bank collapse as opposed to making taxpayers take the pain, Bloomberg reports.

Anglo Irish Bank Corp. said holders of 690 million euros ($950 million) of its 2017 subordinated bonds agreed to swap their debt for new notes at an 80 percent discount as the government spreads the burden of the banking crisis.

Investors with 92 percent of the 750 million euros of outstanding bonds will now receive 136.8 million euros of one- year government-guaranteed securities paying 375 basis points more than the euro interbank offered rate, Anglo Irish said in a statement today.

The discount allows the nationalized bank to generate a gain that can be used to bolster its capital ratios.

9. What good is Wall St? - John Cassidy spends 8,000 words asking this question at the New Yorker and comes up with an interesting answer.

Investment bankers are good at extracting rents from the economy rather than creating real value, he finds.

Fair enough. Off with their heads. I'm sort of serious. HT Felix Salmon at Reuters, who thinks this all may be true, but Wall St won't be shrunk.

Perhaps the most shocking thing about recent events was not how rapidly the big Wall Street firms got into trouble but how quickly they returned to profitability and lavished big rewards on themselves.

Last year, Goldman Sachs paid more than sixteen billion dollars in compensation, and Morgan Stanley paid out more than fourteen billion dollars. Neither came up with any spectacular new investments or produced anything of tangible value, which leads to the question: When it comes to pay, is there something unique about the financial industry?

Thomas Philippon, an economist at N.Y.U.’s Stern School of Business, thinks there is. After studying the large pay differential between financial-sector employees and people in other industries with similar levels of education and experience, he and a colleague, Ariell Reshef of the University of Virginia, concluded that some of it could be explained by growing demand for financial services from technology companies and baby boomers.

But Philippon and Reshef determined that up to half of the pay premium was due to something much simpler: people in the financial sector are overpaid. “In most industries, when people are paid too much their firms go bankrupt, and they are no longer paid too much,” he told me. “The exception is when people are paid too much and their firms don’t go broke. That is the finance industry.”

10. Totally irrelevant video - Jon Stewart on how George Soros plans to overthrow America.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
George Soros Plans to Overthrow America
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor The Daily Show on Facebook

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47 Comments

Love that small print in 5..."Neighbours are what?"

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Who's next after Ireland? Portugal?

The market thinks so.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adTjPmblWtKc

The cost of Irish swaps rose following an earlier decline as the government applied for a bailout to help fund itself and save its banks, following Greece in seeking a rescue from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Investors are now asking themselves “who’s next? Italy, Spain or Portugal,” Bill Blain, a strategist at Matrix Corporate Capital LLP in London, wrote in a client note.

“There is just too much skepticism about the prospects for the euro,” he wrote. “Too many of the rough edges and inconsistencies that lie at the heart of the European single currency have been exposed.”

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Yikes. Thanks for pointing it out Wolly...missed it on first glance.

cheers

Bernard

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Just a good Old English word like fart. Not technically swearing just considered vulgar by those who prefer their Latin derived words. Just like the House of Commons and the House of Lords it all goes back to 1066. Personally I have a fondness for the simple and direct way these words work.

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Pretty ungrateful considering the Poms have supposidly stumped up 7Billion as part of the loan program.

Interesting comment about the Chinese selling T-bonds. The arguement has always been they couldnt do this in any appreciable amount because there would be no market big enough to sell them to (and the price would collapse).

But the Fed has shown itself willing to buy as much US govt debt as is necessary to keep the ship afloat. The Chinese should take them at their word and flog the T bonds (the Fed would have to buy them up) and re-invest the proceeds elsewhere (maybe gold, just like the Russians).

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Bernard - your question on #1, look, what you have to remember is, we are 'world best practice' and "there is no alternative." Plus if Hong Kong want to lose out on the 'world best practice' competition, well, that's up to them. We however can carry on regardless in the comforting knowledge that we are, 'world best practice' - complete dipsticks.

Cheers, Les.

www.mea.org.nz

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They have a stamp duty on property in Australia too . Has it been a rip roaring success at cooling their house prices ?

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Roger - can you give some comparative context information between HK and Auz to clarify whether Auz actually intended such as a bubble-stopper?

My preference would be for robust and assertive use of the more simple prudential measures, say, LVRs, vary per asset class and purchase type, eg. looser for owner-occupiers, tighter for PIs. (Plus it's posible under the present form of the Act.)  Also see Steve Keen's writing on this (LVRs) and his idea to limit debt to a multiple of equivalent earnings from the asset, eg. debt not greater than X times market rent/lease income. 

Cheers, Les.

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GBH - depends on how you define success - it certainly suppresses the turnover in property - it suppresses mobility - it suppresses supply - which in turn hold prices up. Benefit is it brings in $5+ billion per annum into the state coffers for infrastructure. It would cost me $85k to move.

Two year ago NSW introduced stamp duty on the sale of investment properties so property investors were paying stamp duty going in and going out. Lasted one year and they cancelled the exit tax, cos PI's just moved their buying to queensland

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All a bit gloomy.

Here's a nice short video showing how much Arctic sea ice there is now:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YmPBTFDwSs

If you want to learn a lot about the history of the Arctic: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3889

That should calm the fears of those prone to excessive worry over natural changes.

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This is a total mis-direction and has been shown as such by real scientists.

The video just shows the surface ice extent.....it does not show depth or mass...

The more interesting /  important points, are the amount the perennial sea ice has declined ie there is less and less ice surviving each summer, to the point that the North west passage is now looking a viable route and the projection that in summer the artic could be ice free......So instead of nice shinny ice reflecting the sun we get dark water absorbing it....ie the feedback mechanisms are starting...

but thats OK Congress has determined that AGW is one huge scam they intend to "investigate" and hold hearings on......ie a McCarthy witch hunt of scientists.....a few floggings and whippings....ruin some careers......telling truth it seems is not a good idea in the world where "Im not a witch" type ppl ie kooks run for the circus known as Congress....

If instead of nutty neuralnet you want a real scientist try,

http://www.realclimate.org/

regards

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how about some facts instead of pretty pictures   - instead of pretty pictures  

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ 

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2573 

radiohead - Idioteque 

Ice age coming
Ice age coming
Let me hear both sides
Let me hear both sides
Let me hear both
Ice age coming
Ice age coming
Throw them in the fire
Throw them in the fire
Throw them in the

We're not scare mongering
This is really happening
Happening
We're not scare mongering
This is really happening
Happening
Mobiles quirking
Mobiles chirping
Take the money and run
Take the money and run
Take the money

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There there Steven, no need to get so alarmed:

THE ARCTIC IS MELTING

“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated….

(see additional*)

….. this affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.” A request was made for the Royal Society to assemble an expedition to go and investigate.

President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817, Minutes of Council, Volume 8. pp.149-153, Royal Society, London. 20th November, 1817.

================

If you care to study the Arctic ice history, what you'll find is that it changes naturally. Recent baseless worry has just used the recent variation to wave the alarmist banner. All that melting ice, all those dying polar bears. Pity it was all so exagrated.

I'm now beginning to laugh at the alrmanists because their arguments are looking ever more absurd and stupid.

I laughed out loud when I heard Bernard this afternoon actually ask the lady "are you going to be able to cross the Arctic with the ice melting?" ROFL LOL ROFL.
As you can see Bernard, there's plenty of ice.

The alarmists have pulled the wool over so many eyes.

As for the propaganda machine http://www.realclimate.org/ that has been very well discredited. Censorship and bias rules there, only for the alrmists to worry each other.

For REAL open science you have to go elsewhere. One of my favourites is:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/

But recently Judith Curry has been writing some excellent articles:

http://judithcurry.com/

She's a little inconvenient for the "concensus" dogmatists. Oh dear.

===========

Now Steven, I don't think you replied to my posts about AL Gore's carbon trading dying a death:

Pioneering U.S. carbon exchange to close
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Environment/2010/11/08/Pioneering-US-ca…

At its founding in November 2000, it was estimated that the size of CCX’s carbon trading market could reach $500 billion. That estimate ballooned over the years to $10 trillion.

Al Capone tried to use Prohibition to muscle in on a piece of all the action in Chicago. The CCX’s backers wanted to use a new prohibition on carbon emissions to muscle in on a piece of, quite literally, all the action in the world.

The CCX was the brainchild of Northwestern University business professor Richard Sandor, who used $1.1 million in grants from the Chicago-based left-wing Joyce Foundation to launch the CCX. For his efforts, Time named Sandor as one of its Heroes of the Planet in 2002 and one of its Heroes of the Environment in 2007.

The CCX seemed to have a lock on success. Not only was a young Barack Obama a board member of the Joyce Foundation that funded the fledgling CCX, but over the years it attracted such big name climate investors as Goldman Sachs and Al Gore’s Generation Investment Management.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the CCX’s highly anticipated looting of taxpayers and consumers — cap-and-trade imploded following its high water mark of the House passage of the Waxman-Markey bill. With ongoing economic recession, Climategate, and the tea party movement, what once seemed like a certainty became anything but.

==============

Do you want to deny the reality of that story?

Now the other in-house alrmist on here mentioned "how high CO2 was now", and inferred "how can you stand back and do nothing with such levels iof CO2".

That alarmism just looks so silly when you view the current VERY LOW level of CO2 on the geological timescales necessary to get a SENSIBLE view.

Look at this chart:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v207/neuralnetwriter/GlobalWarming/Ge…

from:
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/3872

I think it's more worrying how LOW the level of CO2 is, and that there appears to be a DOWNWARD trend. If that continues, all plant life will suffer. That's probably silly alarmism, but then we're seeing a lot of that recently.

I'll leave you with this from Dr Judith Curry (a climate scientist):

I consider sceptics to be a valuable resource to science, to be nurtured and encouraged. We need such people, even to ask the stupid questions, and definitely to ask the more intelligent ones. If somebody turns up on your doorstep, motivated to study your work and check the details, for free no less, then you make sure they’re taught what they need to know and you set them to work. Whatever they’re capable of and willing to do.

from:
http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/08/why-engage-with-skeptics/

But the alrmists have exactly the opposite view. They just want all questioners to shut up, they want to censor all scepticism.
 

But, they are losing. Have a nice evening :)

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There is denial and there is scepticism....I see nothing wrong with heathly questioning....what i do see wrong is where there is a political axe to grind that has no science to support it, so makes it up.

Your first piece is a downright mis-directiion........if not a lie.

 

regards

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alarmist denier neither neither conspiracy nutter tabloid gutter

anthropological activity is devolving in mere decades an ecology evolved over millenia

ice age coming ice age coming

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Dundee beat the bastards!

 "A criminal investigation into actor Paul Hogan's tax affairs has been dropped by Australian Crime Commission (ACC)." stuff.co

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This is going to get ugly for indebted countries like us.

 

 


jonlivesey 4 hours ago I think one of the most troubling things about this crisis is the growing realization that with the possible exception of Cameron, European Heads of Government don't know the first things about markets, and even worse, cannot reason about markets.

Just think. At the beginning of the year, the heads of the Euro-area thought they could calm the markets with a bland declaration that Greece was in good shape and needed no money. All that did was enrage the markets and ensure that Greece would fail.

Then Merkel and the little Frenchman airily talked about investors having to share risk in Euro-area debt, and apparently, they said this to calm German voters, but never thought how the market would react. Even after Cameron twisted their arms and got them to say this would only apply to future debt, the markets quickly figured out that this meant more risk, and more risk translates into higher yields, so that accelerated the Irish crisis.

And now we have Socrates minimizing Portugal's "needs", but he doesn't seem to recognize that funding needs are not a constant. In a slack market you can borrow all you ask for, but if you try to borrow the same amount in a tight market, you will quickly find yourself priced out of the market. A funding "need" is a function both of how much you require *and* the state of the market.

And now Juncker says: "Speculative actions against Portugal and Spain are not justified, though it can't be excluded," What does he mean by "justified"? When you go to the market, you are asking to borrow investors' money. Does he imagine that investors have to "justify" what they do with their own money? That sort of talk just raises the spectre of the EU bullying the credit markets and it will just make investors dig their heels in all the more.

European Heads of Government talk as though they are trapped in a tight little echo chamber, listening to no-one but one another. For the past several decade, they have created a facade of prosperity for the EU with borrowed money, as their economies slowed down and unemployment rose. And they still talk as if they are running the show, Europe is in rude health, and the rest of us should be grateful to lend to them.

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Directly?  ie the indebtness of NZ?  I dont think so its not hefty.........in-directly as our developed countries export markets go broke and cant pay us for our goods, maybe...then we also have a big potential market in Asia, its closer and they have way less debt....so we shift.......

Yes, I am quite surprised at the gormless Pollies in Europe....and the ppl with capital also...seems a very risky play, but if you are confident you will get bailed then the interest is a fantastic rate....

Someone said if this goes down he aims to be a giant amongst midgets....he expects to lose some but litle compared to others....I think NZ is for now in a similar position....but I do expect tax rises and higher un-employment in the next year or 2....

regards
 

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Indeed; And one can't help but feel that John Key has his glass pressed up against the outside of the echo chamber wall, saying to those of us nagging at him" Quiet! you lot. I can't hear what they're saying...."

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Ooops..............." British banks lost billions of pounds in value yesterday after the Irish bail-out was thrown into jeopardy over concerns that the country's government might collapse before a rescue deal can be agreed."

" The head of the eurozone warned that "crazy" market speculators could turn on Portugal and Spain next.

British banks have more than £140 billion in outstanding loans to Ireland. RBS has forecast it will have about £10 billion in "impaired" Irish loans next year. Lloyds is expected to write off more than £1.6 billion.

If the bail-out fails, further outstanding loans could be in doubt. Yesterday, shares in RBS fell by almost five per cent and Lloyds fell by more than four per cent."

Gummy....are you speculating again?


 

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8152723/Ireland-bail-out-British-banks-hit-as-Irish-rescue-falters.html

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Here Max Keiser implores people to buy silver to bankrupt JP Morgan, which he says is naked shorting the silver market...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCM7rMIqxmk

 

cheers

Bernard

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Re the so-called ice buildup in the arctic. What a horrific load of misleading codswallop. Even yachts are now managing to travel through the Bering Straits.  A few keywords in Google will show that the Arctic Ocean is becoming an ever more accessible sea route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. 

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Who said anything about "buildup" ?

I simply posted a video of the OFFICIAL sea ice extent. You don't believe the OFFICIAL sea ice data?

Or is reality just a little inconvenient and causing cognitive dissonance?

My point is, and was, that the Arctic ice has always VARIED. If anyone wishes to use that variation for propaganda purposes, they have to expect to have that propaganda exposed.

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Again mis-direction.....the annual extent is of no huge importance....showing a video of part of the science means nothing there is no context.

Indeed the ice extent has varied, however that is of minor consideration.....

regards

 

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Maybe its from watching the youtube video that start with summer and works to winter....we watch a buildup.....a picture tells a thousand words or some such.

Maybe a piece in the NYT from a real journalist as opposed to a political hack....

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/science/earth/14ice.html?_r=1

"..........researchers have recently been startled to see big changes unfold in both Greenland and Antarctica."

"As a result of recent calculations that take the changes into account, many scientists now say that sea level is likely to rise perhaps three feet by 2100"

I would nt buy a beach property myself I think....

regards

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Possibly three feet by 2100?

Lucky scientists - as they won't be around to be accountable for that prediction.

If buying beachfront ... what you really want to know is what's going to happen within a 20 year (or so) period.  And even within that time horizon - I have never seen any science say for certain what the sealevel rise will be.

However, with all these all-care-no-proof predictions going around and the councils busily hazard planning for the year 2100 - I wouldn't go near beachfront again.  Shame really, as our kids absolutely loved growing up on the beachfront.

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huh?

There is some effort being put in here to determine risk and impact....so you are saying we should do nothing? simply ignore the best that science can do? might as well go back to the dark ages.

regards

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Here's a nice Bloomberg backgrounder on China's inflation problem with good on the ground detail.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-22/china-inflation-may-prove-too-hot-for-price-controls.html

China's Inflation volcano

Premier Wen Jiabao’s cabinet last week announced it will sell grain, cooking-oil and sugar reserves, ordered an end to tolls on trucks carrying produce and threatened price controls to rein in a 10 percent inflation rate for food. Because the measures would do nothing to counter the 54 percent surge in money supply over the past two years, the risk is they will prove insufficient to cope with the challenge.

“They are just not addressing the fundamental problem at all,” said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor at Beijing’s Tsinghua University. With the expansion of credit and cash in the economy stemming from China’s response to the global crisis, “you’re sitting on a volcano,” said Chovanec.

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Jonlivesey

So E100bn didn't quieten things down? Even I didn't expect this outcome.

I think literally anything can happen now. Not that this is exactly deep insight or news.

Tuesday will be very interesting.

 

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/irish-citizens-sold-…

 

 

Today the Irish Government sold its citizens into debt slavery by agreeing to guarantee stupid loans made by German, British, and US banks. Those loans fueled one of the biggest property bubbles in the world. Ireland has since crashed.

 

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan bragged about the “firepower that stands behind the banking system.” Yes there is firepower alright, a firepower of stupidity.

Wikipedia notes the population of Ireland is approximately 4.35 million. Going into debt to the tune of $137 billion would saddle the average Irish citizen with $31,494.

How long will it take to pay that back? For whose benefit? Perhaps a better question is will it be paid back?

By agreeing to take on that debt, and sticking it to the Irish taxpayers who will be forced to accept various austerity measures to pay back that debt, Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan just sold Ireland down the river.

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FYI The biggest holder now of US Treasuries is the US Federal Reserve. ie monetised debt

 the Fed's official holdings of US Treasury securities now amount to $891.3 billion, which is higher than the second largest holder of US debt: China, which as of September 30 held $884 billion, and Japan, with $864 billion.

HT Zerohedge http://www.zerohedge.com/article/today-biggest-holder-us-debt-united-states-america

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Un-bill-ievable.

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Could the new Tea Party Republicans block an increase in the US government's debt limit, unleashing a bond market fire storm that increases longer term interest rates all around the world within a couple of months?

People are starting to talk about it.

http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/11/22/incoming-tea-party-republicans-will-go-to-the-mats-on-the-debt-limit/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

cheers

Bernard

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The teapartiers could indeed do so......

The 2 year from kiwibank suddenly looks.....uh..........interesting........

Though in saying that.......the direct effect is on the USA, some pieces say investors would then have to look elsewhere to park their money.....NZ might not seem that bad.

The Q is what's Obama's options.....total cave in to the GOP loons? some option, so he takes the can for their actions, Im sure the GOP however would be very happy.

Mind boggling when you look at the state of the US and world, both desperatly need to calm things down....this is the complete opposite.

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/10/big_freeze.html

regards

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Bernard,

Would a move limiting a government debt increase, effectively leading to a govt. shutdown, really be bad for treasuries?

Personally, I would have thought the opposite. Not because it will succeed. It wont. But it will tip a shakey economy into double-dip land.

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EuroKiwi

Interesting thought. The real problem is if the Chinese lose confidence and pull out.

In the end it's all about creditors' belief in ability to pay.

At some stage America either tries to inflate away the debt (QE II) or restructure the debt.

Bondholders lose either way.

cheers

Bernard

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Great detail and pictures on Ireland's ghost estates

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1331380/The-ghost-estates-exact…

cheers

Bernard

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Thanks Greenspan..........

regards

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Some sort of conflict between North and South Korea has started

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11818005

Oh boy

Bernard

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It's just Our Dear Leader teaching little Brilliant Comrade how to go about saying hello to the neighbours.

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ohhh, its just another one of their little brotherly skirmish's, albeit a bit perkier than usual

neither country has anything to gain from war

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Looks like its  war, at least it will soak up the unemployed.

 

 


North Korea has bombarded a South Korean island with artillery shells, injuring civilians and soldiers and setting more than 60 properties ablaze. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/8153000/North…

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The war never ended!....this is just Brilliant Comrade playing with his new toys...it will stop when Beijing decides to stop it.

Think of it as you would the earthquake...all that rebuilding work...jobs created...more GDP...right?

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If the Micks have an early election this may bring down the Euro.

Bring it on.

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I wonder which of the two evils is worse now, indebted for life (and indeed probably my children), where in effect my Govn sells me into slavery from money I never benefited from, borrowed from ppl who speculated and acted in their personal self-interest at the expense of others and never really produced a thing....or a default and a hair cut of the banks and the non-producers.......rock or hard place.....

This is the result of a so called free market........in some ways I think I'd rather have  socialist tattoo'd on my forehead please....but the result is really no different....im screwed either way.

Think I'd feel a lot better if we hanged a few bankers, economists and Pollies...

regards

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This is the thing most don't get.

All those who go on about Aunty Helen, etc.

And the folk Like Hugh P, still pushing his deck-chair up the sloping deck.

And the paid touts like that Netwriter -( I think if we fail to respond, he may get paid less - probably on an 'engagement' bonus, or at least uses the interchange to justify........)

It just amazes me how many don't/won't think things through.

I was thinking of takin 'nine-to-noon' to task, with their latest 'from the left and from the right', It's no such thing, it's both from the same end of the field now, with nobody playing Ref.

Both touting jobs and growth, as if they could be had, or were a 'desirable given'.

Bah humbug.

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Bah envirofascist propaganda.

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This http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/nov/23/theresa-may-migration-cap-plans will have a bit of an impact on the traditional kiwi OE as it looks like it will affect Tier 1 Highly Skilled migrants, and the Youth Mobility visa. I'm in the UK on a Tier 1, which is up for renewal next year. Might be touch and go to get it again.

Oh well, there is always Australia.

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