Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 2pm in association with NZ Mint.
I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.
I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.
China knows how to grow an economy. Evidence below.
1. How China plans to dominate - David Abraham and Meredith Ludlow write at The Atlantic about how China has unveiled its five year plans to lead the world in seven important industries.
Here's an economy that actually plans its future.
Having sat through the Budget yesterday it struck me how much of a 'kick and hope' strategy the New Zealand government has.
There is no strategy.
It is all about hoping the same old export sector will benefit from a commodity price surge.
Meanwhile the Chinese are planning to dominate the real and sustainable growth areas by choosing to invest rather than spend.
Our elite doesn't trust mercantilism. Instead it lauds financial engineering and doesn't invest in real engineering.
Here's what the Chinese are up to:
The economic blueprints focus on seven "Strategic Emerging Industries" that Beijing aims to dominate on a global level: alternative energy, biotechnology, new-generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, advanced materials, alternative-fuel cars, and new energy technologies. Global firms that compete in everything from hydropower to flat panel display technology will have to account for stronger Chinese competition.
And for countries, such as Japan and Korea, with hopes of having their domestic firms lead these industries, these new Chinese plans may necessitate revamping their policies of state assistance for corporations.
To support its strategic industries, Beijing is set to provide accommodating fiscal, tax, and financial policies as well as to "reasonably guide mergers and acquisitions to increase manufacturing industry concentration," according to the published plans. This includes roughly $1.5 trillion in government spending (almost 5 percent of GDP) annually, the goal of which is to grow the strategic industries' contribution to China's growth from less than 5 percent today to 15 percent by 2020.
In other words, China plans to triple the role that these high tech industries play in its economy. By 2020, Standard Chartered estimates that China's economy will reach $25 trillion. At these levels, China intends that $3.75 trillion, or roughly the equivalent of Germany's annual GDP, will come from its seven strategic industries.
2. The festering Greek sore - FTAlphaville points out The European Central Bank has warned it will refuse to accept Greek bonds as collateral for Greek banks (or other banks) if the debt is restructured.
This just reinforces the dangers of wholesale runs on European banks, given how many are dependent on the ECB for liquidity.
These are the liquidity operations which have acted as a lifeline to Greece in recent months, with Greek bank borrowing from the European Central Bank still hovering around €87bn at the end of March.
Or as RBS’s Jacques Cailloux puts it, Stark’s warning is… :
“This is the last card in the hands of the ECB in warning about the implications of a restructuring.”
3. 'Open the taps' - The International Energy Agency has called on OPEC to urgently increase oil output to avoid 'derailing the economic recovery'.
But what if OPEC can't because they've already hit peak oil?
Here's the BBC on the IEA's call.
"The IEA Governing Board expressed serious concern that there are growing signs that the rise in oil prices since September is affecting the economic recovery" the IEA statement said.
The energy group said it stood ready to work with producers as well as non-member consumers, but it is "prepared to consider using all tools that are at the disposal of IEA member countries".
4. China now the biggest gold buyer - WSJ reports China is now buying more gold than India for the first time ever as consumers get richer and more nervous about inflation.
China's investment demand for gold more than doubled to 90.9 metric tons in the first three months of the year, outpacing India's modest rise to 85.6 tons, the World Gold Council said in its quarterly report on Thursday. China now accounts for 25% of gold investment demand, compared with India's 23%.
The report underscores the rising appetite for gold among the growing middle-class in China. Fears of the country's soaring inflation, as well as a search for new investments, is luring investors to gold, and marketing of the precious metal has also increased in recent months.
"I think people will be surprised by the strength in the Chinese demand, but we think this is a trend that is set to continue," said Eily Ong, an investment research manager at the gold council.
5. 'Just lift the ceiling' - Former IMF economist Simon Johnson says at Project Syndicate the US debt ceiling will definitely be lifted. Anything else would be unthinkable.
It is not difficult to identify who would bear what costs if the US did not pay – or if it disrupted markets by not increasing its debt ceiling. Everyone who borrows or interacts with the credit system in any way would suffer a shock that would make the crisis of 2008 look small.
Among others, the US corporate sector – big and small business – would be livid. To be sure, executives and entrepreneurs like to shake their heads over the current US fiscal deficit. And some of them engage constructively in debates about the real issues: how to control health-care costs, prevent future financial crises, and end America’s expensive foreign wars.
But these are the issues for the presidential election of 2012, in which one hopes for debates that will set a more encouraging fiscal agenda for the next 20-30 years. How and when America’s budget problems will be resolved is unknown, but US fiscal history is encouraging – the Republic has managed and survived crisis before.
Simply put, America will not score an own goal over the debt ceiling – and Boehner must know it. Symbolic gestures are to be expected, as with the threatened government shutdown earlier this year, which merely created fodder for political advertising by both parties. But any manufactured debt crisis now would deeply antagonize the corporate sector – and most of the electorate. In the wake of economic disaster, the party held responsible would presumably be exiled from power for a generation (the Great Depression kept the Republicans from the US presidency for 20 years).
6. Even Obama doesn't trust the stock market - Maybe he hasn't gotten around to his investment strategy because he's too busy running the world's most powerful country, but Barack Obama seems strangely reluctant to invest in the US stock market. He too, like so many, has his money stuck in the least risky assets.
Here's Greg Mankiw with the detail:
It looks like the president has only a small percentage (about 10 percent) of his personal financial assets invested in equities. This is far, far less than financial advisers would recommend. (If you are curious, I am at 60 percent equities.) Either the president is not very financially savvy, or he has reason to believe that the future of the U.S. economy is not very bright.
7. Britain's inflation nightmare - The FT's Martin Wolf paints a picture of the Bank of England's inflation rock and its economic hard place.
The news that the increase in the consumer price index was 4.5 per cent in the 12 months to April underlined the MPC’s failure. The compound annual rate of inflation has been 4.1 per cent over the past two years and 3 per cent over the past six. This is a dismal performance, particularly given the severity of the recession.
The economy has remained very weak, with a 0.5 per cent rise in gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year after a 0.5 per cent decline in the last quarter of 2010. GDP is still 4 per cent below its level in the first quarter of 2008. The fiscal squeeze is set to continue until the end of this parliament. Broad money has even been shrinking since early 2010. Unemployment has also been quite close to 8 per cent since the middle of 2009.
8. How Rajat Gupta came undone - This BusinessWeek piece on McKinsey Managing Partner Rajat Gupta is damaging for McKinsey.
Here's a sample.
By the time Gupta took over, however, McKinsey was under pressure from an increasingly competitive market, and under his leadership it underwent a massive change. He aggressively expanded the firm, nearly doubling its size, to 891 partners. He changed the pay structure, enriching partners relative to the younger members. He helped increase revenue 280 percent, to $3.4 billion, but in the process was accused of presiding over the watering down of McKinsey's vaunted principles.
In the '90s the firm began accepting payment from its clients in stock, which had once been regarded as tainting the impartiality of its advice. It was on Gupta's watch that Enron, a company closely tied to McKinsey, collapsed.
Some blamed Gupta for the tensions that arose during his tenure and for the fraying of the firm's standards.
McKinsey had a culture of superiority, says one longtime client, who declined to be identified, adding that consultants at the firm really seemed to think they were better than anyone else in the business world. This CEO is still shocked recalling an incident in the late 1980s, when a McKinsey team offered to provide him with a road map of what his competitors were doing. When asked how they could produce such information, he was told that McKinsey also worked with his competitors, but he could trust McKinsey to know what was confidential information and what was to be kept private. He says arrogance permeated the firm.
9. America the world's largest tax haven - Michael Hudson writes at iWatch news that America is the world's largest tax haven for corrupt money.
“We’re the biggest tax haven in the world,” says Robert Goulder, editor-in-chief of U.S.-basedTax Notes International . “People joke about the Cayman Islands. The biggest haven is an island, all right. It’s either Manhattan or Great Britain.”
Jack Blum , a former U.S. Senate investigator and an authority on offshore tax shelters, says U.S. bankers “sell tax evasion to citizens of Central America, the Caribbean, all over Latin America.” The U.S. government hasn’t put a stop to it, Blum says, because bankers and politicians don’t want to stop the flow of foreign cash into the United States.
Foreign depositors have placed an estimated $3.6 trillion with U.S. banks and securities firms, a Department of Commerce study reported. Much of the money isn’t disclosed to tax authorities in their home countries, according to Blum and other critics of U.S. tax haven practices.
The American government provides little help to Mexico and other poorer countries whose citizens have squirreled money in the United States. U.S. officials can’t tell these countries about their citizens’ bank accounts here because the government doesn’t collect the information.
10. Totally Clarke and Dawe - They do Tony Abbott on Australia's carbon tax.
108 Comments
Interesting article on the Glencore IPO and what it may mean for commodity prices.
>25 years ago, my swissy dealer got a call from Marc Rich, wanting to sell cable "What at, and how much?", he asked. "Just sell! at any price, and keep selling..." the voice on the other end of the phone chortled. When trading opened later in the day, in London. OPEC announced a massive increase in the supply quotas, and the pound dropped like a stone. Given that experience, your article has a lot of merit!
This on Bloomberg the other day suggesting the Chinese property bubble might be popping (at least in Shanghai)
Prices cut 28% for high end residential propertiesHi Bernard
Just spotted this article on Denmark's "oil-free by 2050" strategy. Might be of interest to you.
"The International Energy Agency projects that global energy demand will increase 34 percent by 2035.
In Denmark, we have decided that we do not want to be in that energy race. We want to insulate ourselves from future peaks in energy prices and disruptions in supply, and to invest our money in green, long-term, sustainable sources of energy."
They might find it very hard to achieve. I recall Sweden was going to be oil-free by 2020!
But still a worthwhile goal.
Cannot imagine Key and Co being so visionary!!!
http://blogs.worldwatch.org/revolt/denmark%E2%80%99s-road-to-a-low-carbon-energy-efficient-economy/
...so maybe the government should have picked some winners and subsidised them so they could become global leaders? Maybe dairy would be a good one to choose, since we have a unique advantage, deep technical knowledge etc. Oh wait, that would mean tax breaks to farmers, that wouldn't work. What about if we chose to become the financial capital of the south pacific. No, that would mean being nice to bankers, that wouldn't work.
Seems to be working for China. It has US$3 trillion of foreign reserves, surging economic growth, fast-growing wages and is building global brands at a stunning rate.
New Zealand?
Growing debts (to the Chinese), falling GDP and selling its assets as fast as it can (to the Chinese)
But we have free markets...
No worries then...
cheers
Bernard
NZ has never had free markets , Bernard . We have always been a democratic socialist un-republic . Capitalism was giving a run in the 1980's , for a couple of years , but then we stopped for a cuppa , and never went back to work on it .
....... We remain , a social welfare nanny state . The government currently takes and spends about 45 % of the nation's GDP , how much more control do you want them to have !
[ get a pension in China , Bernard ... or ACC ? WFF ? DPB ? DHB's ? RMA ? AMI ? SCF ? ]
Gummy,
Its part of our British heritage. Britain's had a welfare State, with a brief lapse in the mid 19th Century since the Enclosures were underway in the Tudor period. The British mentality its better to paternalistically manage the lower orders by compensating them monetarily for the fact that the aristocracy deprived them of their source of independance (the land) when they stole the commons from the peasantry and forced them of the land. This paternalistic management of the common people contributed to Britain's political stability when other regimes were beset by civil unrest or even toppled by periodic revolutions and no doubt influenced the development of the welfare state in Bismarkian Prussia and the Third Republic in France. New Zealand was the recipient of those frustrated by their constrained social and economic circumstances which were a consequence of Britain's dominance by their aristocracy until the changes ushered in as a result of World War I
Belich argues that the Welfare State was driven by the need to maintain an economy that was focused almost exlusively on the provision of protein in the form of lamb and dairy products since the introduction of refrigerated shipping in the late 1800s. The State and what Belich terms New Zealand's "protein industry" have been intimately intertwined since the 1890s. It was the State that drove development of the pastoral industry, through providing assistance in land purchasing, clearance, drainage, farmer training, grass sowing, and transport. Like China is today, New Zealand's always had a merchantalist political economy, though when the seams began to fray in the 1920s, a Welfare State steadily evolved to hold it all together and prevent its unraveling. China too will be forced to rebuild the "Iron Rice Bowl" which was their equivalent to the New Zealand Welfare State after its shattering in the wake of their entry into the world trade regime to ensure social stability.
http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/biographies/1w4/1
http://majorityrights.com/index.php/weblog/comments/the_bears_lair6/
Really? I don't remember writing, tor lawn, will you please read my comment and offer your considered opinion of the matter.
lol to think I restrained myself from making a snide remark to your previous comment. I neededn't have bothered since you have little to offer the discourse beyond ad hominem attacks.
You offer "evidence" that I plagarised an entry in wikipedia by citing THREE words that are shared between the entry and my comment and preoffer that as proof. I hope to God you're not involved in marking for any New Zealand tertiary education sector.
Your comment demonstrates the anti-intellectual nature of the New Zealand culture with its knee jerk gut driven reaction against carefully constructed and reasoned debate on any subject, which has ensured this country lags behind in its technological development and is locked into dependance on sectors of the economy that any first rate industralised nations have divested themselves of long ago. Pavlova paradise indeed.
.... Ah , now this is something that Gummy does know alot about .
Hominem is a kind of goo that Arabs make out of chickpeas and spices . Also in English ( i.e. Bill ) it is a dip . A slang that refers to laying it on thick , when in fact you've got sweet bugger-all of substance , to pad out your argument . You can budget on many in politics doing this ....... To " ad hominem " .
....... Leemee know if the Gummster can sort out any more of your queries , as in " hominem " , I am full of it .
You really are full of venom aren't you? I don't see anything I've done to have raised such ire. Just a sad frustrated wanker whos got nothing better to do than put people down in public forums. Go do something else if you've got nothing positive to contribute to the conversation.
"And that's where you will be aiming won't it. The soft core, where no one notices."
Really? Does the term Anarchist mean nothing to you? I don't think it in anyway is consistent with an objective of working in the public sector, do you?
We have more than a few ppl especially the right wing greedy type idealogues who frankly ive yet to see think..this is yet another one.
Interestingly I find your posts have depth, logic and state their message(s) well....which is where most of the aforemetioned break down and end up name calling....
Oh and Ive always had a soft spot for anarchy....at least its totally honest...ie you get nothing at all but pay nothing at all....unlike the libertarians who are almost there but pull back and expect others to pay for the army/police/justice system so they dont have to pay the full price to stand alone.....
regards
or this from Mark Lapolla via ZH:
I think the China situation, however, is profoundly obvious and profoundly simple. The idea that the free world is placing its hope in a repressive, communist regime employing command and control economic management while violating trade protections and human rights everywhere is absolutely astounding, amazing. I would suggest that, in itself, should be a sufficient warning flag. But let's be a lot more specific. I actually see the situation in China as very analogous to the U.S. in 1929 and Japan in the 1980s....I'll just tick off eight similarities between China circa 2011 and the U.S. before the Depression. 1) Massive disparity of wealth, income, and education. 2) Rapid industrialization and displacement of labor. 3) Opaque and misleading economic and financial data. 4) Massive build-up of leverage across the "rising" class. 5) Bubbles in both residential real estate and fixed asset/infrastructure development. 6) Accelerating and uncontrolled growth in disintermediated credit. 7) Expected transference of economic growth to domestic demand. And, finally, an accelerating price/wage spiral. Nonetheless, to China's credit, they have a booming economy which has drawn the attention, admiration and certainly the economic aspirations of the world. The irony is, despite its hubris, China appears to have lost control — and has done so by doing everything it could to avoid that. Essentially, in its own zeal to placate its masses with rapid growth, China has created a tide of inflation that threatens it with wide-spread social unrest. But if it crushes speculation and clamps down on credit, it risks a deflationary collapse that would also threaten social harmony. The upshot is that China no longer controls its own destiny. The free markets do. As an aside, I would suggest that in the not-too distant future, when this all unravels, there will be downside as well as upside for the U.S., particularly as it relates to what we were talking about before, the way the U.S. has benefited from the value of intellectual property versus scale.
Yeah freedom of speech, religion and political discourse are soooooo overated eh Bernard.
I mean the irony of that is you would probably be the first to be rounded up for "re - education" if you said half the stuff you do publically about govt policy.
We may have our problems as a country but that is not a road we want to go down.
um... just wanting to look at another spin on China ...
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Daily-Reckoning/2011/0505/Every-boom-will-bust.-Even-China-s.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Daily-Reckoning/2011/0505/Every-boom-will-bust.-Even-China-s.
cut and paste the above, link doesn't seem to be working!
Re 1 - it isn't a case of which political genre, it's a matter of an intelligent appraisal of where things are going.
We're going to be nursing an aging infrastructure along on an increasingly scarce/expensive/lower-quality fuel source, and the window of opportunity to morph will be gone.
They won't.
They understand the correlation:
FYI 8 out of 9 of China's top officials are scientists.
In New Zealand? Who can name a scientist in the NZ cabinet. There's a few bankers and lawyers...
Did you know that the president of China is a scientist? President Hu Jintao was trained as a hydraulic engineer. Likewise his Premier, Wen Jiabao, is a geomechanical engineer. In fact, 8 out of China’s top 9government officials are scientists. What does the scientific prominence atop China’s ruling body say, if anything, about the role of science and technology in China’s ability to compete against the U.S. and the world in terms of innovation and economic might?
and at one stage Charles Chauvel is/was responsible for energy for Labour? do correct me if Im wrong but he's a lawyer.....the chance of him appreciating the doo doo we are in is zilch frankly.....and in fact he blindly parrots what the MED tell him....though on the bright side he miles ahead of Brownlee who's energy advisors best describe him as stupid from what Ive heard......
regards
What does the scientific prominence atop China’s ruling body say, if anything, about the role of science and technology in China’s ability to compete against the U.S. and the world in terms of innovation and economic might?
That's exactly why they don't buy into dangerous global warming nonsense. They know better. A new coal fired power station every few days while they buy up the world.
I saw new coal fired stations in action in Yunnan and Sechuan a month or so ago. Even the older ones I saw - and we drove right up to them - were as clean as a whistle. There was no particulate pollution at all, and the trace aerial fertiliser - CO2 - was benefitting the surrounding vegetation.
Our pollies are fad and angst driven ignoramuses by comparison.
Be my guest and laugh away, all the more CO2 to make those little flowers happy.
Warmists who also know that there is such a thing as peak coal, oil, nat gas have this delicious dilemma, where on the one hand they want to impose totalitarian solutions to solve their perception of a "problem" while at the same time predicting economic armageddon which will drive us back to the dark ages as resources are extinguished and which require an extreme socialist solution. That's the problem with having a "theory "of everything. Of course the fact that three of you are here to jump all over me just proves a point that your warmy education of the masses is failing big time. The general public doesn't buy it any more.
Might pay to make regular visits to http://wattsupwiththat.com/ to broaden your perspective.
Cheers!
I broaden my perspective with real science not illogical right wing idealogue denier sites disguised as "skeptics"...
Interestingly they have targetted their best audiance well; right wingish, middle aged and older, poorly or average educated males......
I see that Congress's "fact finding" witch hunts did surprisingly badly....they usually do such a great job of ignoring reality....where I wonder were all mass of the deniers they seemed to have missed the event....not there thats for sure.....of course I understand you get put on oath and purgury is possible.....might explain the few....
Have you considered why we have yet to see any court actions from the deniers? great thing about buying a website for $75 for 5 years, its cheap and you can say just about anything you want and not have to prove it in the real world....
regards
One does what one can . This particular " right wing greedy type idealogue " has set up a small foundation to gift money and essential supplies to several local scohools , we're sponsoring a guy through a car mechanic course , and are repairing two private roads .
....... Luckily , being a right wing capitalist , I was able to create the money to do these works . The government and local councils here ( Philippines ) are corrupt , and only give money to their chosen and already spoilt few ........ unlike in New Zealand ( cough , cough , ahem ! ) .
regards
While I haven't "got there yet", and it was never a goal of mine to get rich at all - in fact once a member of the Labour party and a union secretary - nevertheless I find myself in a situation where I most likely will become filthy rich. Apart from the immediate needs of wife and family - and they are very modest - I plan to help those in need too, GBH. You are absolutely doing the right thing and good on you! Much more pleasure in giving than receiving.
I too have been in business, 12 years running and developing a successful B&B - listed in the Friars Guide , Lonely Planet and Rough Guide. Didn't make much money as we paid down a huge debt, but made a ton of friends and had a lot of fun too. Still had a day time job as well.
As for politics I hold that pragmatism is the best route and that we have to negotiate outcomes as best we can. Who will I vote for this time round? At this stage I may not vote at all - the first time in my life. NZ just doesn't seem able to confront its problems.
Gummy will vote for the only pollie who seems to have his act together ! A mild mannered man of principles and vision . Not a brash know-it-all leftie , who labours under the illusion of welfare and of infinite supplies of someone else's money . Nor a national disgrace , as some are . Some careers have petered out , others lack hone-sty . Green with envy , brethren ? Been and dunne that . Onwards friends , to a fresh and sustainable future . Act now !
[ Gummy ain't " rich " ..... Nought would get done if I put off making a contribution until such time as I was filthy stinking rich . Got alotta friends here . Meebee that's being rich enough . ]
Amen to that brother! Right now I'm absolutely on the bread line but giving free tuition to kids from poor homes here in HK. I get a great deal of satisfaction from doing this, my wife and son also help out..
Now did we just have the rapture?
I had a shower and my wife cut my hair - just in case.
Bugger ! ......Did I miss the end of the world , ....... again ? ..... 6 p.m. wasn't it .
..... That's OK , I have it on good authority that there'll be another one , same time and day , October .
[ ... We've got 20 nuns here today , using our beach . Osama Bin Laden would envy me , 'cos unlike him , the Gummster would get to heaven with an entourage of virgins . ]
Oh my God – and you two keep the wheel- chair ready for a race to the top.
There are in fact unusual more stronger earthquakes in the last few days:
http://tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk/local-bin/quakes/mapscript/demo_run.pl
Roger, make sure "your nuns" and everything else still alive, stay away of beaches.
Kudos to you , my friend , that steven deems you to be a more repugnant hominoid than me . I am suitably rebuked , humbled , and put back into my place , ............
...... merely an " illogical right wing idealogue denier " ...........
I dream of reaching " right wing greedy type idealogue " status ........... Oh how I dream .....
........ Forgive me now , Gummy must pop off for a little sulk .........
Oh you mean realities....oops sorry about that....tis simple the deniers want to have the action in the court of public opinion and not real courts or real scientific arenas....where they would a) be shown as in-competants b) Quite possibly on the make from corporations who fund such loons c) lose.
regards
OMG -Might pay to make regular visits to:
Scientific evidence is mounting that climate change will directly or indirectly affect all economic sectors and regions of the country, though not all equally. Although there may be temporary benefits from a changing climate, the costs of climate change rapidly exceed benefits and place major strains on public sector budgets, personal income and job security.
http://www.cier.umd.edu/documents/US%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20Climat… Inaction.pdf.
Please read: Page 45 - “5 Conclusions and recommendations”
Another question to the government.
Application of high and new technology has changed the face of the coal industry, on the basis of in achieving comprehensive mechanization of coal production, the developed countries are positive direction for the development of remote control and automation. While the coal industries in our country are also transforming from labor-intensive to capital and technology-intensive.
http://www.seiofbluemountain.com/upload/product/200910/2008glhy07a10.pdf.
If so, why is New Zealand selling coal to the world now and anyway – when modern technology promises "clean coal", which makes coal so much more valuable and safer to mine in the future?
OMG - sorry, we have to overlook that kind of comment.
The science doesn't agree with you.
Energy equations never lie. I'm not a scientist, but I could identify an electrical capacitor as such, before I went to school (seriously - the old man installed/maintained x-ray gear, built radars, depth and area measuring eqpt - the workshop at home rocked). When the energy-in steps up relative to the energy-out, you look for the capacitance. The soak. It has to be there, this isn't smoke-and mirrors like economics - this is real. In the global equation, the capacitance had to be the oceans (nothing else was big enough, or had the transfer-rate ability). That's why my first house had a water-filled Trombe wall, by the by.
When sailing back from the Pacific last year, we noted that the ocean temp was 1deg or more, over what it should have been. That's a lot. We predicted an active cyclone season. It was.
The sad physical fact is that all capacitances, no matter how large, run out of - logically enough - capacity.
Then...........
Vested interests, on the other hand..... explain away vaguely - or deny - anything which might upset their cherished notions.
As they do re 'growth' within a finite sphere.
Pdk - OMG - sorry, we have to overlook that kind of comment
Governments without a visionary approach to the energy vs. emission -> climate change problem, your approach is like stopping a freight train within in 50m going with 50km/h– it doesn’t happen or can you imagine Brownlee/ Joyce coming up with a vision saving the planet for the next generation ?
Hence the planet/DNA will save itself....its a closed cycle system....all the co2 eventually gets put back in the depths by the microbes....takes many 100s of millions of year of course via a super warm period...in the meantime its quite likely even with the limitations of peak population, coal and oil (outputs) we will do severe enough damage to our environment that all will drop....possibly even extinction for us humans....at about where our great-grand children....circa 100 years...
Interesting thing about the cook islands I visited some years back.....once population goes past the point of not enough other resources there is only one left.....Browlee would have been welcome, he'd baste well.
regards
PS Actually PDK and I and many many others have been saying these are problems for a decade or more.....and some really great thinkers have been saying it since the 50s thats not 50metres......
regards
I thought they were mainly engineers (as you've already pointed out with the President and the Premier), rather than scientists. Not that engineers can't be scientists and vs versa, but generally they aren't. They work as engineers rather than scientists.
But the point you're making, Bernard, is well taken. And forget about comparisons between China and the US, what about comparisons between China and NZ, that's what we need to be worried about.
New Zealanders (as well as Americans) don't do science anymore; it doesn't pay enough with respect to the other professions and the time it takes to qualify, and it can be a poor career choice with limited employment opportunities and uncertain and unreliable funding. That needs to be addressed or our science and medical faculties will have a 100% post-grad foreign born Asian roll rather than the 60-70% that they have now.
I dont think they'd get to the top if they were not amongst the brightest....1st class honours and importantly the math to see it and undertsand it......actually in some ways engineers are better.....they do real things and not just theorise.....more practical and experienced with getting outcomes, personal point of view of course....
;]
regards
You are absolutely right about NZ not doing science any more. From first hand experience, I quit Biochemistry/Biotechnology as soon as got degree, A+ in honours course, as even with those grades there was little chance of any reliable decent income in NZ in that line of work. Biotechnology was meant to be where the big technological advances would be made. Could have gone overeseas and made adequate amount, but there would unlikely have been anything much to come back to NZ to make a decent income at. So I stopped going down the science and research track, and so did a number of my colleagues, who were also keen to remain in NZ.
Sorry I missed this yesterday. Soros selling out of gold.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/85245…
George Soros, the hedge fund investor who called gold "the ultimate bubble", has sold almost his entire holding of the precious metal, leading to fears that the price is about to fall.Not all of his gold . He has converted some of his paper holdings into physical bullion .
....... Apparently , so the argument goes , George originally bought gold in fear of massive deflation . And now he feels that the deflation risk has passed .
And Gummy thought that gold was meant to be an inflation hedge , not deflation . Back to the pittosporum hedge for me !
No, gold is there to see you through whatever the event with hopefully the minimal of losses be it deflation or inflation...its not there to use during it...
The key is some....he's worth shed loads so a small hedge makes sense....also for a depression/deflation event cash is the best bet....so its not inconsistant..
URL on he thinks that deflation has passed?
regards
Well if he's got an open mind and is constantly looking for more and better information, processing it and turning on a dime and acting on it is maybe why he's worth so much....others cant see the options for their political blinkers.....I know who I'd rather trust.
regards
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-05-17/shrinking-pie-competit…
Interesting data and comment on China's growing energy problem....their coal production is set to decline....so (and wow!) talk is of 245 nuclear plants.....even then...really when you look at so many fundiemntals its pretty obvious we are going to come un-stuck its just a Q of when.
10% growth per annum is a doubling every 7 years....can china' economy double again? I dont see how so the upper limit is about 7 years....2018...clearly we will be past peak oil....probably past peak coal...and a whole load of others....but JK see's great growth.....
regards
It is very interesting reading about the number of scientists in top positions in China. Having more than one science degree myself I have learnt the importance of objective and factual reasoning and thinking which is the whole basis of science, and which would likely never have me accepted as a politician in this country. I have learnt the cold hard reality of failure and success in the lab and work place, where spin doctoring of results is not possible.
We live in a science and technology world, we have for a very long time. Virtually all countries that have raised there socioeconic status in the last 50 yrs appear to have done so by leading in the science and technology and manufacturing areas, for example look at South Korea, destroyed by war about 50 yrs ago with millions killed and now about to climb over NZ's OECD ranking. We had about the second highest standard of living in the world when the Korean war was raging!
The NZ population have the genetic potential to be just as smart as any others in the world but the current NZ culture is out of touch with with the drive and personal effort and inovation needed to keep up with the technological and innovative changes required to keep up with the rest of the world. Just look at at Medical School intakes in NZ, I would bet that at least 50% of the parents of those enetering medical school were born overseas.
If the government is not going or unable to provide the funding for reseach and development then it is up to the poeple to put their own time and effort into doing so. "Necessity is the mother of invention". It appears very few in NZ see the necessity to put in the required effort into science, technology and innovation that our overseas asian competitors do. Why bother when there is a massive social safety net, funded by overseas borrowings?
I make every innovation I can in my work to improve efficiency and productivity, I invest heavily my own money and effort to have the best equipment and processes I can find in the world, I seek out the cheapest sources of the best high tech equipment in the world. I learn to use it as best as possible, and it has big paybacks in both job satisfaction and finacial returns. I am competitive and driven and efficient out of necessity. I will stay up to 1am in the moring if required to get bugs sorted out of new techniques and processes to get them running effectively and efficiently.
I am encouraged to inovate and improve efficiency even more when I meet like minded poeple.
Unfortunately the average NZ'er appears economically illiterate and oblivious to the amount of drive and innovation required to compete with the rest of the world. I think a big wake up call is going to hit this country in the next year or two. The phrase "necessity is the Mother of invention" might be become a necessity then.
Medically qualified and working in that area, also qualified in Biotechnology/Chemistry and Exercise science/physiology.
Regarding South Korea, it was interesting to note in the Sunday Herald today (page 40), that the South Korean average wage ($42,141) is now higher than that of NZ ($41,705).
This is an interesting piece from the US measuring Govt rev paid out to citisens as income. Would be interesting to see a similar trend in NZ neither country can afford this stuff
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/05/charts-of-day-trimtabs-consumer.html
Sums up the loony right very well IMHO.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/fiscally-im-a-rightwing-nutjob-but-on-…
regards
If NZ committed to being totally organic we could sell our food at boutique prices, not petfood prices. If we decriminalized recreational drug use we would attract talented young people. Our young people might stay here. Dunedin just spent $200,000,000 on an idiotic stadium that we do not need.- If they had spent a fraction of that on the fashion industry, imagine. We should have the cheapest, fastest internet in the world, but au contraire- it is slow and expensive.
I have a mate who is an engineer- very smart guy. He invented a system to harvest heat from the tin roofs of homes. He wisely forgot about it and has spent his time being a real estate mogol. If he had proceeded with his inventions, he would have lost everything. We reward the cleverness and punish the intelligence.
There is always infinite amounts of money and support for finance company crooks.
Why are we not becoming energy self sufficient right now- everybody (left and rigfht) knows we have to eventualy. When oil is $500 a barrel, we wont be able to.
We are like the heavy smoker who has chest pains and is spitting up blood, who carries on regardless- avoid the doctor- keep smoking- watch lots of TV.
It would be so easy tpo turn this country around if we had visionary leadership. Letting outsiders buy up this land is crazy.
I think that the Chinese leadership is spot on. It is opbvious that the future lies with high tech, energy self-sufficient, internet and ecological industries.
The choice is between a living on a scifi distopic wasteland- or a high tech hippy style community. We could amalgamate the best of both worlds (Hippy and high tech) and be prosperous, happy, safe, resonably self sufficient and healthy.
The big problem in NZ is that that ACT party has taken over the entire political process. ACT is running the show- with Labour the liberal wing of the ACT Party, National the moderate wing of the ACT party and the Maori party the Maori wing of the ACT party.
They are hijacking the country, driving it into a ditch so they and their mates can strip us and sell us to intrernational scrap dealers and second hand dealers
If NZ committed to being totally organic we could sell our food at boutique prices, not petfood prices. If we decriminalized recreational drug use we would attract talented young people. Our young people might stay here. Dunedin just spent $200,000,000 on a stadium that we do not need.- If they had spent a fraction of that on the fashion industry, imagine. We should have the cheapest, fastest internet in the world, but au contraire- it is slow and expensive.
I have a mate who is an engineer- very smart guy. He invented a system to harvest heat from the tin roofs of homes. He wisely forgot about it and has spent his time being a real estate mogol. If he had proceeded with his inventions, he would have lost everything. We reward cleverness and punish intelligence. It is a land of lawyers, not engineers.
There is always infinite amounts of money and support for finance company crooks.
Why are we not becoming energy self sufficient right now- we have to eventualy. When oil is $500 a barrel, we wont be able to.
We are like the heavy smoker who has chest pains and is spitting up blood, who carries on regardless- avoid the doctor- keep smoking- watch lots of TV.
It would be so easy to turn this country around if we had visionary leadership. Letting outsiders buy up this land is crazy. Letting outsiders farm us, is inexcusable
I think that the Chinese leadership is spot on. It is obvious that the future lies with high tech, energy self-sufficient, internet and ecological industries.
The choice is between a living on a (1) sci-fi distopic wasteland- or a (2) high tech hippy style community. We could amalgamate Hippy and high tech and be prosperous, happy, safe, resonably self sufficient and healthy.
The big problem in NZ is that that ACT party has taken over the entire political process. ACT is running the show- with Labour the liberal wing of the ACT Party, National the moderate wing of the ACT party and the Maori party the Maori wing of the ACT party.
They have hijacking the country, drivin it into a ditch so they and their mates can strip us and sell us to intrernational scrap dealers and second hand dealers. They will get a few bucks (cash) in their pockets but at the expense of the entire community.
The Chinese leadership is patriotic. They are looking out for China and the Chinese people long and medium term. I never get the feeling that they wish they were living somewhere else. I think a lot of NZ leadership is planning to move to Australia, Asia or Europe after they finish gutting NZ. They will have a ball. They could live in a gated community with Mark Hotchins and party perpetually.
ipredict
Hey guys it has things like,
"Reserve Bank to increase OCR by 50 basis points on 15 September 20"
maybe the inflationistas should take a few positions.
It has CPI as well which is gambling IMHO....
regards
everyone here should listen to the Chris Laidlaw interview of Ruppert, Radio NZ this morning.
Especially you, GBH.
:)
I'd never heard of him, but sounds like someone else who worked out that physics trumps economics, every time.
As the Chch earthquake proved, of course - for any with the nous to contemplate it.
In the absence of Jerry Seinfeld , Michael C. Ruppert has gotta be the funniest guy doing the comedy circuit in the USA . www.peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2009/09/423-mike-ruppert-prophet.html .......... Gummy loves a good laugh , and this guy is priceless .
Oh I think he's a genuine 110% tin foil hat fruity loop......but you see his analysis of the data is right....after that, the outcomes he foresees are amongst the worst possible and a bit of a stretch (you should listen to his youtube sstuff its a giggle)....but the US IS heading for a bad fall....it cant survive petrol consistantly breaking $4USD a US gallon and still function....ie grow....
So its toast....and the rets of us are not going to be doing well...
I've asked ipredict if I can bet against JK's forecast(s)....be my guest to take the other side.
regards
GBH -
Peak Oil Debunked
Debunking peak oil hype with facts and figures, and exposing the agendas behind peak oil.
DISCLAIMER FOR IDIOTS: This site officially accepts that oil is finite, and will peak someday.
Is that the one?
What's it about, that site?
Exactly?
I'd never heard of the fellow, and conspiracy stuff - right or wrong - isn't my bag.
He has the physics pretty good, though. Notice the comments afterwards? Attacking the messenger, and rhetoric. Not one fact in sight.
Just a thought.
Some disturbing images, but don’t believe everything you see and hear The situation isn’t that bad.
http://www.asianweek.com/2011/05/21/a-is-for-atom-foretold-fukushima-core-melt/
Recommended: Before watching the film, please wear your safety gears and a white overall. After watching - please, properly wash screen, key- board, mouse and spray your surrounding with air- freshener – then take a shower.
.and for people, who don’t understand Japanese - it is not a new milk- factory of Fonterra in China they are talking about.
Bschnefki yuraba si opaschicka parwda mastreda……Valeri Legasov said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/2011/03/a_is_for_atom.html
A great piece, thanks....
So just like Keynesian, & monetary theories the Pollies have managed to screw up nuclear policy as well (is there anything they havnt screwed up?)....interesting the comments on costs....Ive always been suspicious of the costs being hidden (and especially the clean up costs)....I sort of assumed it was the industry, now its pretty obvious it was the Govn as well....having sold their sould 50 odd years ago....which is another interesting point we think lobbyists/corps today are bad....that dont look much better 50 years ago.......about all I can hope for is ppl/voters wont blindly accept what they are told.....
regards
Funny as hell at the FT.com. DSK gets Shawshanked.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6e21680a-817c-11e0-9c83-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1MqJMWd7c
Dangerously, Dominique also fell out with some of the most feared prison gangs. The Bloods disagreed violently with his Keynesian views, preferring the neoclassical approach to debt burdens. Even worse was his feud with the Latin Kings over the optimal model of macro-prudential regulation. For a while it seemed only a question of which gang would get him first. He became scared to shower alone for fear of being accosted by a deficit hawk.
What inflation?
Cash Prices Food Commodities
(Prices for actual physical commodiities, not futures) usa
5/11/11 Year Ago Change
Grains and feeds
Barley, top-quality Mnpls; $ per 6.2 3.15 + 96.8%
Bran, wheat middlings, Kn. City; $ per ton 178 43 +314.0%
Corn, No. 2 yellow. Cent. Ill. 6.605 3.48 +89.8%
Corn gluten feed, Midwest, ton 150.42 51.59 +191.6%
Cottonseed meal, ton 268 175 +53.1%
Hominy feed, Cent. Ill. Ton 205 77 +166.2%
Meat-bonemeal, 50% pro Mnpls ton 440 280 +57.1%
Oats, No. 2 milling, Mnpls; $ per 3.42 1.955 +74.9%
Sorghum, (Milo) No. 2 Gulf cwt 11.275 6.76 +66.8%
Soybean Meal, Cent. Ill., rail, ton 48% 335.6 291.9 +15.0%
Soybeans, No. 1 yellow Illinois 13.14 9.37 +40.2%
Wheat, Spring 14%-pro Mnpls; $ 9 4.4225 +103.5%
Wheat, No. 2 soft red, St.Louis, shel 7.72 4.81 +60.5%
Wheat, hard, KC 7.575 4.025 +88.2%
Wheat, No. 1 soft white, del Portland, Ore 12.1025 6.2825 +92.6%
Foods
Beef choice 1-3,600-900 lbs. 166.68 154.05 +8.2%
Beef select 1-3,600-900 lbs. 160.27 150.17 +6.7%
Broilers, dressed 'A'; per lb. 0.865 0.865 0.0%
Broilers, 12-city comp weighted avg 0.8458 0.8527 -0.8%
Butter, AA Chicago, lb. 2.05 1.605 +27.7%
Cheddar cheese, barrels, Chicago lb. 165.25 140.75 +17.4%
Milk, Nonfat dry, Chicago 164 130 +26.2%
Cocoa, Ivory Coast, $ per metric ton 3637 3566 +2.0%
Coffee, Brazilian, Comp. 2.7637 1.2962 +113.2%
Coffee, Colombian, NY lb. 3.0974 2.0139 +53.8%
Eggs, large white, Chicago dozen 0.885 0.595 +48.7%
Flour, hard winter Kansas City cwt 22.55 13.7 +64.6%
Hogs, Iowa-South Minnesota avg. cwt 88.04 82.49 +6.7%
Pork loins, 13-19 lbs, Mid-US lb 1.415 1.54 -8.1%
Steers, feeder, Oklahoma City, avg cwt 142.13 128.19 +10.9%
Sugar, cane, raw, world, lb. fob 26.31 19.54 +34.6%
Data Source: Wall Steet Jounal Market Data Center
Actually , Count , is was more of a sarky Saturday & a sneery Sunday than a snipey Friday . Our good friends PDK , for lawn , OMG , and of course , steven , were having a field day of it .
...... Sadly , our dial-up was congested , so the Gummster couldn't join the fray ....... But it is nice to see the children play , they're so sweet ..... Daddy Count & Mummy Gummy's little morons .... ahhhhhh !
We are not allowed to say mormons GBH..!!crikey you'll get us into trouble again...
I don't recall the last time the Big B. spoke to me (in print) but it wuz a hell of a while back so y'know obviously I done something offensive......
Ah well que sera sera....cui bono.
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