
Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 1pm in association with NZ Mint.
I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.
I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.
Today's Top 10 has Obama, Stewart and a talking dog.
1. New Zealand's water failure - The Listener has written an excellent editorial on how the government's water reforms last week failed to achieve much.
The government has failed to provide leadership on targets.
New Zealand remain open to accusations of not being 100% pure.
All it will take is a Guardian/BBC documentary and our reputation will be toast.
Anyone watching the BBC interview with John Key last week will have been shifting uncomfortably in their seats.
We all know we're lying to the world when we say we're 100% pure. Ever thought of swimming in a farmland stream or a Waikato lake?
We need to act now to fix it.
Unfortunately, our government seems captured by the dairy lobby.
Two years ago, the Government endorsed the approach of the Land and Water Forum, an experiment in consensus decision-making that aimed to get farmers, environmentalists, electricity companies, fishermen and other warring parties out of the courtroom and around the table to sort out a framework for both protecting water quality and tapping into the economic potential of our abundant water resources. The group came up with a long list of recommendations, the first of which was for the Government to set national standards for water quality, and lay down a timetable for achieving them.
But the Government baulked. Instead of using the rare consensus achieved by this traditionally fractious collection of interests as a mandate for decisive action, it has thrown the ball back at regional councils – the very agencies that have overseen the degradation of our rivers and lakes over the past 20 years.
In dodging this opportunity, it has likely dashed any hopes of keeping water out of the courts. By issuing a vague policy statement and ordering 16 regional councils to sort out the details for themselves, the Government has virtually guaranteed that water quality and allocation will continue to be the subject of endless dispute and litigation.
2. Not such a NovaStar - Gretchen Morgenson from the New York Times and Graham Fisher have written a book on the sub-prime mortgage debacle in America, detailing one particular black hole for effect.
How different is it in New Zealand?
The banks say we're completely different.
Yet we saw last week from Rob Stock at the Sunday Star Times how woeful the controls were around Glenn Cooper in South Auckland as recently as late 2009..
Here's Morgenson and Graham Fisher on the problems found by Lehman (!) when it audited the loans at one sub-prime bucket shop called NovaStar:
Among the problems turned up by the Aurora audit were misrepresentations of employment by the borrower, inflated property values, transactions among parties that were related but not disclosed, and unexplained payoffs to individuals when loans closed.
The details uncovered by Aurora were alarming. One NovaStar loan on a property in Ohio totaled $77,500 even though the average sales price for the neighborhood was $31,685, and the same house had been purchased two months earlier for $20,000.
3. A close run thing - Bloomberg reports the US Congress may take until August to lift the debt ceiling. Remember, America will default on its debts on August 2 if the ceiling is not raised.
4. 'New Zealanders choose to be poor' - Scientist Paul Callaghan has been saying some interesting things lately about New Zealand's lack of investment in science and innovation, much of which I agree with.
Here's some more of his provocations via NZHerald:
"The choice is as simple and as stark as this: New Zealanders like to work in low-wage activities. Tourism is a classic example. Or people thinking about growing wine and look it's great, it's a nice lifestyle, but frankly, the revenue per job is poor," he said. Callaghan says the Government's goal should be to get more workers into jobs that produce high-value exports.
"If you look at the profile of high-tech companies in New Zealand, you see the diversity [of what they develop], you see some surprising strengths. We've got a tremendous capacity and we have the capability of growing this sector significantly," he said.
"There is no political leadership around this. One of the sad things about the Budget is the signal the Government sends about innovation is that it's actually one of Bill English's like-to-haves, not a must-have. I'm not expecting us to ramp it up to OECD levels overnight in a time like this, but [the Budget] doesn't gel with a Government that says 'we want to lift per capita GDP'," he said.
5. China's booming trusts - China's banks are trying to clamp down on lending to property developers, but all sorts of displacement activity is happening, including through off-balance sheet structures such as trusts, FTAlphaville points out from a Standard Chartered research note.
The continued willingness of many developers to seek this funding shows how difficult it is to get loans from banks now. But the continued availability of funding for these products shows that wealthy individuals and corporates with cash to spare are still looking for a positive return to their funds.
Some listed firms have ramped up their investment in trust products (which is in effect a play on the property sector). This is of course getting riskier for all involved. In every tightening cycle, the challenge for the authorities to restrict credit availability and to manage where it goes weakens. They will probably just about manage, we believe, to pull off this tightening cycle without a triggering hard-landing, but the next time around it will be even harder.
Doubts abound on whether there is even much investor appetite for ultra-long-term US debt. Although non-US investors have been buying a higher proportion of long-term debt, domestic institutions do not have the same appetite as, say, in the UK.
This creates at least two potential risks. The most dramatic, and less likely, danger is that the short average maturity profile means the government could find it hard to keep rolling over its debt at a reasonable price – if at all – if there was ever a full-blown collapse of confidence.
The more subtle and likely problem is that the US government could also see the cost of financing the debt rise sharply if inflation surges, because it will need to roll over its debt at (rising) market rates.
7. ECB vs the rest - Wolfgang Muchau at FT.com cuts through all the rhetoric to the heart of the problem in the European Financial System at the moment. The European Central Bank doesn't want to play Father Christmas anymore to all the politicians by funding their banking systems. Cue a big mess.
Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, stormed out of a meeting with finance ministers on May 6. This was the famous super-secret meeting whose very existence had been denied by officials. The ECB has since stepped up its rhetoric, and is now threatening to deny Greek banks access to the ECB’s refinance operations after any restructuring.
Think about this for a second. Cutting Greece off from ECB liquidity would constitute a dramatic escalation of the eurozone debt crisis. It would force Greece out of the eurozone within days. You could say that the ECB is threatening to create so much mayhem in the financial system that the monetary union would effectively collapse.
8. Now here's an economy - BBC reports Singapore, which controls its currency, has just raised its growth forecast because of an increase in manufacturing output. HT Chris via email.
According to the latest government figures the economy grew by an annualised rate of 22.5% in the first three months of 2011.
Singapore's continued growth was lead by manufacturing, especially in pharmaceutical production. Manufacturing rose 13% from the previous year and 75% from the previous quarter, the ministry said.
9. Jon Stewart talks about the Debt Ceiling. And he dreams about a giant pizza and something in his trousers.
10. Totally a dog talking video. 26 million views in 23 days. Yikes.
41 Comments
Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt.
Cursed be the young : For they shall either inherit the National debt , or they shall be priced out of being able to Labour .
... They are stuffed !
No 1. "New Zealand's water failure" Isn't that what the Environmental Protection Authority is for ? http://www.epa.govt.nz/ Do you have access to any research on the EPA and any cases they have run over the past 10 years? Any convictions? On the face of it the dairy industry appears to have free entitlements to discharge its waste into the environment free-of-charge
“100%NZpure” a lie – tourism minister should be sacked.
NZTourism in general, but particularly NZEco- tourism takes a big hit from constant polluters, especially coming from dairy farming. The number of tourists disappointed about New Zealand is increasing –sharply. It seems our minister of tourism is not talking tough and let tourism down and therefore should be sacked by the PM - opps !.
Isn’t odd the two backbone sectors of our economy NZFarming vs NZTourism are increasingly on collision course.
Last time I looked, government expenditure in Singapore was a little under 20% of GDP.
Govt share here is now over 46 % ( Infometrics ) - Add in local govt plus the Air NZ's and bingo - we have over 50 % of our economic activity as government.
The Polish Shipyard is now in Lambton Quay
Colin - We are going to catch and overtake them ... just you watch.....
Pity RR chose Singapore for a $ 700 M investment on their new Trent engine line.
Oh well - Next time.
Don't they have massive current account surpluses as well.
I wonder why we just don't do what they do ?
- Compulsory Super
- Education focused on the sciences and engineering
- Target the exchange rate
- Low taxes
- No welfare
How could this possibly work - Silly me !
You would also need leadership very different from that our complacent, often incompetent, and always status quo defending political parties currently deliver.
#10 That dog talks more sense than JK
What's the corporate tax rate in Singapore?
Perhaps there is something we can learn from the Irish. Their low corporate tax rate clearly upsets the elite of the Franco-German Empire. OOps, sorry, I mean the EU.
How to make a property bubble and then burst it really fast and totally destroy Govn finances you mean? hardly something I want to learn.
regards
Roger : The Irish economic model would be working fo them still , if they had a rigorous oversight of their banking industry . A central banker would do well to stamp down on credit creation within an economy , rather than to focus on the CPI .
...... As ever , bankers and the real estate industry have rooted a superb little economy .
Re 4, Whilst (in Sir Paul's opinion) tourism and grape growing may be low paying jobs, is it not still a right in this country to choose a job for personal reasons, be that money, enjoyment or whatever? Pay rates are determined by industries, not individuals (I'm sure these workers would love to be paid more) Where is his accompanying list of suggestions for these higher paying jobs so the people "who like to work in low-wage activities" can start retraining?
I'm curious. Do elaborate.
cheers
Bernard
A trading scheme in which carbon allowances are allocated for free on the basis of how much carbon you emitted last year, would certainly create an incentive to pollute as much as you can this year, so you get a higher allowance next year. That would be a very poorly designed scheme, though. I don't know whether that's how it works in NZ.
but that would be a one off so an advantage in year 2 that couldnt be repeated in year three........and I suspect if it was in a sector that has an average someone who stands out would get looked at carefully...and if you were polluting on purpose wouldnt some other aspects of environmental law see you in ocourt? wanton damage ?
regards
Bernard, by not using net emissions in agriculture there are many crazy incentives.
Imagine a rural process that emits more CO2 than another - yet with higher efficiency or different end products absorbs more CO2 to product for final export.
Eg Growing trees for export lumber where it is locked up indefinitely.
We are not responsible for emissions at point of consumption or we would tax coal exports.
The whole ETS is an ill conceived mess designed by zealots.
This may go some way to answering your question K W John
http://www.theage.com.au/national/emissions-plan-an-incentive-to-pollute-20090220-8dqw.html
The scheme for agriculture is perverse in that you are taxed on outputs produced e.g. Kg of milk solids - rather than on the emmissions generated doing so.
More efficient producers will therefore cross subsidise wasteful or inefficient producers. Why? Because it is easier to collect charges on outputs.
The whole scheme runs counter to effective resource allocation principles .
Problems
There is no offset for carbon absorbed in the feed the animals eat.
The ETS is based on production, not consumption for agriculture, unlike fossil fuels which are based on consumption. Where is the credit for the carbon in agricultural products exported?
Neville - I made extensive submission on the fact we are targeting gross rather than net emissions and pointed out the amount of CO2 absorbed and transported as exports from our rural economy.
After much prodding I got many " There was agreement between the parties " responses and tackling Smith in public got him to admit it would " not be fair ".
So Science out the door - it's Smith's definition of fair.
We are dealing with a cult - not science !
Thanks for your reply. I thought I was the only one who could see this inconsistency.
This from Michael Pento on how the Fed might turn off the money printer...not without a depression, he says. HT Andrew via email
http://m.ibtimes.com/is-bernanke-ready-to-take-training-wheels-off-149193.html
A bona fide Fed exit from interest rate manipulation means by definition that both nominal and real interest rates would rise significantly. The Ten year note yield is less than half its average over the past 40 years. Therefore, a mere normalization of rates would prove to be devastating to commodity prices, markets and the economy.
Whether or not the Fed is bluffing has dramatic implications for investors and the country. Mr. Bernanke will eventually have to choose whether he wants another depression or more of the inflation the Fed is so adept at causing and then denying. Unfortunately, we all know which path will garner the most votes in D.C.
I agree with the depression scenario....so simply the OCR has to stay low or the US economy collapses...though I suspect it will anyway.....
Its just a Q of which leg of the rickty chair si kicked out first.....debt, oil price, govn stupidity, stopping stimulus......to name just 4, any one will do.
yeah Palin for President.....lets end the world in 2012!!!.....oops wasnt there the mayn calender prediction?
regards
Do I take it you concur with Michael Pento statement as a generalised speculative...?
Roger
Corporate tax rate in Singapore:
8.5% up to SGD 300k
17% above SGD 300k
Personal tax rate:
Up to $20k 0%
$20k to $30k 3.5%
$30k to $40k 5.5%
$40k to $80k 8.5%
$80k to $160K 14%
$160k to $320k 17%
Over $320k 20%
Capital gains tax 0%
And in NZ, your have politicians and some commentators arguing that Government must increase taxes to punish the "rich" and to make the country successful!!! The money should be transferred to people on benefits and low incomes to breed more people that the planet, society and economy can not support.
Thanks for that GG.
Funny how no one else seemed to understand my comment.
I asked the guy running ANO if he thought the change in the corporate tax rate to slightly less than in Aussie had caused any extra interest in enlarging head counts in Auckland rather than Sydney offices. He replied he hadn't thought of that and hadn't heard anyone mention it, which surprised me.
My comment about Ireland is that as far as I can tell they have performed an economic transformation over the last 30 years from basket case to successful manufacturer by attracting North American multinationals with low corporate tax rates. This was a seriously successful strategy. Of course, success went to their heads after centuries of poverty and they went totally overboard on building and borrowing but booms have to start with a good solid basis.
Food for thought.
Ireland used its position as part of the EU to attract US manufactures as a low cost, technologically advanced backdoor to a market of 300m.
It also helped that the EU poured in about a third of Irelands GDP per year as subsidies to upgrade Ireland infrastructure.
What's the compulsory super rate in Singapore... 35-50%!
Isn't the company tax rate in New Zealand effectively zero for domestically-owned companies? The 28% headline rate is more of a withholding tax. In all other countries except Australia and New Zealand, companies pay tax on their profits and the profits are then taxed again when paid out as income to the owners or shareholders.
The point seems to be that we are good at all sorts of things but lack scale. Ireland has a similar population and maybe we can copy some policies from Singapore and Ireland. Its called competition and my suggestion was we start playing a bit harder.
BBC Hardtalk John Key Interview
A facinating watch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b010x77b
Last broadcast on Tue, 10 May 2011, 00:30 on BBC News Channel
Does Key get this sort of a grilling back home, should he?
No!..and yes... And we can't even get to see your link here..."Not available in your area", but, good try....
SnarlyPuss use the link I provided below.......i'm going viral with it....what a turd first class..! arrogant SOB.
Try this, worth a look
BBC Hardtalk John Key Interview on You Tube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfUozKMgA-Y
And people used to say Helen Clark was arrogant...
Here is the working youtube link.................
http://emigratetonewzealand.wordpress.com/2011/05/10/bbc-hardtalk-roasts-key-on-100-pure-image/
Nice videos at the end, the dog one was classic!
Thanks Christov for providing real, actual working links for people in New Zealand
Tax Times
Government is stuck on a path of 'taxing' doing rather than taxing 'not doing'. The trouble is that the government wants people to do stuff and people want to do stuff, but the tax system tells you don't do anything. buy something and sit on it and when you sell you keep the lot. That is not actually doing anything.
We have to radically change the emphasis in our tax system from taxing doing- ie taxing building businesses, working hard, buying stuff in New Zealand, getting an education, that sort of thing. We need to start to tax not doing, sitting around doing nothing. People making money sitting around doing nothing in particular is something we have become very good at . It is called rent seeking. A lot of people travelled a long way to get to New Zealand and avoid rent seekers back home.
Why do we have to change? Because it is making us poor. Enterprising people either leave or go into the rent seeking business. Neither of which do us any good.
A Comprehensive reform of the tax system is important becaause the tax system is a key element in defining the 'playing field' and is therefore a major influencer on the behaviour of the 'players'.
A Land Tax will go a long way to changing things for the better. To introduce a land tax, reduce GST. Reduce company tax/income tax to the point where it is not worth emplying an accountant to massage the results.
Company tax, Income Tax, GSt etc are all major opportunities to play the system. A Land tax works because it will not matter who or what owns the property, onlt that the land tax is paid. Land tax has no deductable expenses, no wealth transfers offshore, nothing at all. All it requires is someone to paythe tax it does not matter who.
"Auckland Transport spokeswoman Sharon Hunter said while Mrs van den Bogaart's situation was unfortunate, the fine could not be waived."..herald
Remind me again...why do people live in Auckland...with bureaucracy like this...!
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