
Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 3 pm in association with NZ Mint.
I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.
I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.
I love the idea of a hooligan running a money printing operation.
1. Chinese buyers the only ones? - Robert Gottliebsen writes at Business Spectator about how Chinese buyers are the only ones holding up apartment prices in Brisbane and Sydney. HT Hugh via email.
Is that the case here too?
Many rich Chinese are trying to squirrel their money away in assets a long way from the arms of the Chinese government and away from the inflationary effects of China's own money printing.
Is this one of the reasons for the strength in Auckland house prices since March?
In many central Auckland suburbs there has been plenty of Chinese money being spent.
Your experience?
Yesterday, I was yarning to Harry Triguboff, the largest apartment owner and developer in Sydney and a major player in Brisbane and the Gold Coast. He tells me that more than 80 per cent of the apartments he is selling in Sydney are bought by mainland Chinese buyers. There will be a similar pattern in Melbourne. The Sydney apartment market is down about 10 per cent but, without the Chinese buying, apartment prices would fall sharply leading to a significant decline in eastern states dwelling prices.
The Chinese have made a lot of money in China and want to have investment diversification in a stable country like Australia. They normally do not borrow from our banks. The Chinese use the apartments either for their children to occupy while they are students here, or they rent them.
The Chinese are also major purchasers of agricultural property.
2. Who will blink first? - Dylan Ratigan looks at who will win the game of chicken between the Republicans and Democrats over the debt ceiling.
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
3. A critical moment - Ed Harrison writes at Credit Writedowns about why the spike in Italian bond yields this week is a critical moment for Europe.
We are now seeing Italy face the music. I think of Italy the way one might have thought of Morgan Stanley in 2008, vulnerable but not the most vulnerable and certainly not undeniably insolvent like Lehman Brothers.
So what you do is you treat Lehman Brothers differently than you treat Morgan Stanley. You treat Italy differently than you treat Greece. And I am not talking about bailouts. Anyone can be bailed out whether they are solvent or not. “At the end of the day, what people want to know is who is insolvent and who isn’t.” And they can only do that by seeing the insolvent defaulting and treated one way and the solvent being treated a very different way.
I don’t think the Europeans get this. Here’s what I think will happen. The Europeans will continue with the extend and pretend approach but add more firepower to their arsenal by buying up Spanish and Italian debt to punish speculators. Reports are that this is already happening (link in Spanish). Willem Buiter of Citi believes the ECB will thus be forced to revive its bond-buying program to protect Italian debt auctions or they will fail.
4. America's hooliganism - RiaNovosti reports Vlad Putin has accused America of hoolaganism over its use of its reserve currency to print money and export inflation to developing economies such as China, Russia and Brazil. Bill English is in good company when he criticises the Fed. They're both right.
"They are behaving like hooligans, switching on the printing press and tossing them around the whole world, forgetting their main obligations," Putin told a meeting of economic experts at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
5. Here's the sort of thing happening on the ground in America - The video below shows a Florida man's house was trashed by bailiffs even though he's not in foreclosure. This is the sort of thing that starts riots.
6. Watch for a fast Chinese slowdown - John Key is mighty confident that China will keep growing strongly and keep New Zealand's commodity prices high and therefore save us all from rack and ruin.
But what if China slows quickly after jumping hard on the monetary policy breaks to control inflation?
Reuters' Kevin Yao reckons China will have to lean very hard on the interest rate lever to contain inflation.
To date, China has been wary of leaning heavily on interest rate rises to combat inflation. But to tackle what Beijing just called its "most prominent" economic problem, that's likely to change.
China will not toss out other tools in its policy kit but would make rate increases a bigger part of the mix. Authorities have largely run out of room to keep wielding the main instrument so far -- raising banks' required reserve ratios (RRR) -- while imposing lending limits would spark a backlash from commercial banks.
More importantly, it's becoming clear that the Chinese economy needs higher rates to fix the damaging effects of negative real interest rates.
7. How the Bubble destroyed the US middle class - Rex Nutting from MarketWatch pulls together the major details to explain why the US economy just can't get going.
He points out the 30% slump in house prices slammed the leveraged middle classes hardest and now they don't have any money.
The prosperity of the middle class has been the chief engine of growth in the economy for a century or more. But now our mass market is no longer growing. How could it? The middle class doesn't have any money.
There are a hundred different ways of looking at the economy, and a million different statistics. But if you wanted to focus on just one number that explains why the economy can't really recover, this is the one: $7.38 trillion.
That's the amount of wealth that's been lost from the bursting of housing bubble, according to the Federal Reserve's comprehensive Flow of Funds report. It's how much homeowners lost when housing prices plunged 30% nationwide. The loss for these homeowners was much greater than 30%, however, because they were heavily leveraged
8. Short termism and the risk of another crisis - Outgoing US banking regulator Sheila Bair has written a great op-ed at the Washington Post. It's today's must-read I reckon.
I’ve had a unique vantage point during my five-year term as chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., from the early failure of IndyMac Bankto the implementation of reforms designed to ensure that no conglomerate ever again is deemed “too big to fail.”
Now that I’m stepping down, I want to sound the alarm again. The common thread running through all the causes of our economic tumult is a pervasive and persistent insistence on favoring the short term over the long term, impulse over patience. We overvalue the quick return on investment and unduly discount the long-term consequences of that decision-making.
Our decades-long infatuation with financing our spending through ever-growing debt, in the private and public sector alike, is the ultimate manifestation of short-term thinking. And that thinking, particularly in business and in government, is actually getting worse, not better, as we look for solutions to put our economy on a sounder footing.
9. What happens when the money runs out? - In all the storm und drang around the debt ceiling debate in America, many have forgotten that many US unemployment benefits, sickness benefits and other bits of social welfare will run out shortly, leaving many destitute.
Here's Motoko Rich at the NYTimes:
Close to $2 of every $10 that went into Americans’ wallets last year were payments like jobless benefits, food stamps, Social Security and disability, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. In states hit hard by the downturn, like Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Ohio, residents derived even more of their income from the government.
By the end of this year, however, many of those dollars are going to disappear, with the expiration of extended benefits intended to help people cope with the lingering effects of the recession. Moody’s Analytics estimates $37 billion will be drained from the nation’s pocketbooks this year.
In terms of economic impact, that is slightly less than the spending cuts Congress enacted to keep the government financed through September, averting a shutdown.
Unless hiring picks up sharply to compensate, economists fear that the lost income will further crimp consumer spending and act as a drag on a recovery that is still quite fragile.
10. Totally Jon Stewart video - John Oliver explains what Britain knows about dying empires with rotting institutions. He has the best summary of the News of the World debacle I've seen anywhere.
29 Comments
There are literally (2) houses going up around me owned by Chinese that are F.O.B. (Fresh Off the Boat) I’m expecting even more activity after the World Cup.
Better lock up your dog and cat.
You mean lock up my pig right? Chinese prefer pork. But I wouldn’t expect someone that makes blanket xenophobic statements to understand that.
in light of the Pacific Fibre plan looking more and more likely, i thought i'd post this old story from Wired mgazine about the endeavours and history of subsea cables. Its not just giving cash to a ships captain...
The ratings liars will have to start lying again...it's the only way to salvation..aint that so Bill?
Things are going to get rough...this might help.
Possum pie
1 possum
5 tbs balsamic vinegar,5 onions,2 cloves garlic,5 carrots,1 stalk celery,2 turnips,3 tomatoes,2 tbs cold pressed olive oil,1 clump italian parsley,1 tbs fresh rosemary,5 bay leaves,3 cloves,2 tbs Vegemite,1 damper (like a hot dog roll)
Note:Look for the fresh roadkill and avoid the ones run over by Mac trucks.
First, skin the possum, checking first for lice.Separate legs from breast. Discard head, neck, tail and claws. If you wish, hold the offal for xmas stuffing. Then cut the possum into long sringy pieces.
Marinate overnight in vinegar, rosemary, bay leaf, clove, garlic & oil mixture( not old engine oil).
Make the roll: split the damper, and spread vegemite on each side. Put aside.
Chop the carrot, turnip and tomato into small pieces, then cook with the rest of the ingredients, and stew in a pot, adding a chicken stock cube for seasoning. Dip the possum pieces in the pot, then barbecue for 20 minutes (or until cooked to personal taste).
To serve: like a hot dog, use the damper & vegemite roll to surround pieces of possum.
Serve with chips, salad and beer.
Recipe by Holly and Chloe Bennett, Cootamundra, Australia...modified by Wolly.
From the description: "As the price of food soars, why pay for it when you can catch it for free?"
http://www.booksellers.co.nz/book-news/new-releases/wild-rabbit-ryan-wa…
Of course substitution only goes so far, as illustrated in this Blackadder episode...
...and before you know it... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green
or the more direct approach, from Alas Smith & Jones:
Wolly: Dont dismiss the Mac Truck brand too quick. Tenderised, pre-Minced. All for your convenience. Good for hamburger patties.
Gosh Wolly that certainly is awfully Australian! Vegemite!!! If its going to be the middle classes that will be suffering you'll need to get a bit more posh like
Jugged Hare (substitute possum or rabbit) fabulous made with red wine, bouquet garni,
a little duck fat, redcurrant jelly. Licks fingers suggestively
Nigella
If I was Chinese investor I'd look for property in the states
there are some bargains to be had there, much more potential for capital gain than here
So Matt is speculating in a bankrupt country better than speculating in a bankrupt company?
.
I suggested some time ago that Obama sell Michigan to the Chinese…it’s a win-win
8. Short termism! You couldn't get a better example of short termism than New Zealand. We even elected a money trader as PM . Now you couldn't get more short term than a money trader
8. Short termism! You couldn't get a better example of short termism than New Zealand. We even elected a money trader as PM . Now you couldn't get more short term than a money trader
Yo PDK and Steven
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10738254
something about peak and energy for you guys :)
Too little
regards
Too late
thanks :)
"He has accused America of hoolaganism over its use of its reserve currency to print money and export inflation to developing economies such as China, Russia and Brazil. Bill English is in good company when he criticises the Fed. They're both right."
No he isn't. You're all wrong. I guess simple explanations tend to be the most compelling. Sometimes Occam's Razor doesn't stand. At least Putin, being a former Soviet KGB chief has an excuse for his cavalier caricature of how the monetary system works, but your back ground as a financial journalist and Bill English's in Treasury doesn't grant you any for your lack of robust analysis. Well I guess its a convenient pretext to attack the United States and win easy diplomatic brownie points, whilst shifting scrutiny from those who are amongst the biggest beneficiaries of the world's economic structural imbalances. Him and his oligarchic mates as well as the other billionare kleptocrats in other emerging markets . If you think the Gilded Age in the U.S. was wild, you'd be astounded by whats happening in the BRICs. http://books.google.com/books/about/The_super_rich_shall_inherit_the_earth.html?id=e1M3QQAACAAJ "the really fast money growth these days is found in the emerging world (China, the Gulf, Argentina) not the US. You don’t need a committee to control dollar issuance to change that; these countries could stop pegging to the dollar. Their central bank balance sheets are growing fast — on both the asset and liability side." QE doesn't create new money, its just an debt/equity swap between the private banks and the Federal Reserve. Its just stemming the tide of deleveraging that's been occuring since the GFC and would be far worse otherwise. And its failing even at that.Although the USA stopped issuing M3 we can still measure M3 through various independent sources. Hyperinflationists are often quick to point out Shadow Stats when anyone cites the CPI. Ironically, according to their data the M3 money supply is still shrinking at an annualized rate:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-myth-of-the-exploding-us-money-supply-2011-3#ixzz1LRGtaIwI
“Now, what these reserves are is essentially deposits that commercial banks hold with the Fed, so sometimes you hear the Fed is printing money, that’s not really happening, the amount of cash in circulation is not changing. What’s happening is that banks are holding more and more reserves with the Fed.” Ben Bernanke
For a far better explanation check out the link below.
http://pragcap.com/mechanics-qe-transaction
And its certainly not bourne out by the numbers.
"Although the USA stopped issuing M3 we can still measure M3 through various independent sources. Hyperinflationists are often quick to point out Shadow Stats when anyone cites the CPI. Ironically, according to their data the M3 money supply is still shrinking at an annualized rate:"
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-myth-of-the-exploding-us-money-supply-2011-3#ixzz1LRGtaIwI
regards
Exactly right!
Quantitative easing is merely a reverse asset swap (the original asset swap is the issue of govt securities, where the private sector exchanges reserves for securities). It is not "money printing". Bill English doesn't understand this.
Thank you.
Marty,
I can answer that. The vast majority of what we consider money is issued by private banks as debt and the resulting interest is shared between the banks and depositers.
Demand for cash by the community has tracked ahead of the nominal GDP but by international standards, remains low relative to GDP. The total value of notes and coins in circulation as at September 2007 was $3.41 billion, approximately 2% of nominal GDP. As a percentage of the public’s total money balances, notes and coins comprise about 15.2% of the narrowly defined money supply (M1) and 1.8% of the broad money supply (M3). http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/finstab/payment/3236268.pdf As the above states the vast majority of what we consider money isn't money as strictly defined (legal tender), but what Ludwing von Mises called money substitutes. The vast majority are in the form of various types of IOUs, bonds, both public and corporate, share certificates and electronic accounts with savings banks etc etc. "The actual form of payment – whether it is by legal tender or some other method – is determined by the contractual context. A contractual provision may specify the form of payment as something other than legal tender. For example, it may specify that payment be made electronically or by cheque, in which case the debtor has no right to insist on payment in legal tender." http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/bulletin/2007_2011/2007sep70_3mcbride.pdf Its up to people to stipulate in their commercial contract how their transaction is to be settled. You can exchange anything for anything. The banks just have an advantage in that they've managed to convince people that their electronic balances are the same as legal tender and they've developed the infrastructure so people can easily exchange their electronic balances for real money. Below is the mechanism of how "money" is created. "Note however, it is clear that loans create money and a money multiplier exists related to lending. The issue being addressed however is that money creation is chaotic and cannot be modeled using simple mechanical views of lending only created from existing deposits because banks essentially do not loan out deposits, but rather create credit and then manage the liabilities this creates for them. (Tucker 2007)." http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2007/speech331.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Andrewedwardjudd
yeh instead of the Fed investing the banks' capital (or cash) reserves in the private market, they buy government securities (T-bills) instead, which yields low interest in the hopes that it'll convince investors to reshuffle their portfolio in equities or corporate debt instead and therefore stimulating the economy. Unfortunately Bernanke has misunderstood the nature of the recession and the fundamentals of the economy don't permit investors to buy into such high risk assets. Instead they've had to bet on the continued increases in commodities, which have so far been bourne out because of the nature of China's political economy. The Chinese political leadership are intent on continued economic growth at all cost regardless of such a pesky issue as high cost of materials.
No its just a swap. Its just that banks' are holding more capital as reserves, because they don't wish to risk with the current state of the economy. Those reserves are now being used to invest in Treasuries. No new money, existing money is just being invested differently.
Another way to look at it is Bernanke knows exactly what he is doing. In the USA what's happened to basically all the bailouts regardless of the form they took etc. It's been used to buy real assets , attack countries & attack the middle classes around the globe. We see this via bankrupting of sovereign nations.
Did the man on the street see the bankers bailout benefits yet, will they ever, why do we all have to pay for the bailouts , what is austerity really, who is the IMF representing , where will the tax hikes whatever form they come in go to service , who will reap most from asset sales , who owns our public debt? So many questions that dont get asked!
1. Shouldn't the government be heavily taxing the purchase of residentail properties by non-kiwi's?
Stamp duty now there's a revenue source that (?) could make homes more affordable.
Stamp duty now there's a revenue source - could also make homes more affordable for these Chinese buyers.
fact- China are behaving same as Japan in 1930s - Greater East Asia CoProsperity Scheme - US Deputy Ambassador 2005
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