Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at midday in association with NZ Mint.
I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.
I'll pop the extras into the comment stream.See all previous Top 10s here.
The video at number 10 sums up a lot today.
1. Maybe Marx was right - Historian Mary Gabriel writes well at Bloomberg (!) about Karl Marx's early years and how his analysis developed.
This renewed interest in Marx's theories is startling.
Here we have Bloomberg, the water carrier for the most ruthless of investment bankers, being genuinely interested in how Marx came up with his ideas.
On a day when many are beginning to question the way capitalism has developed over the last 50 years, this analysis is interesting.
Particularly as the richest group of Americans, Europeans and Chinese pile their cash into the safest assets rather than invest or spend it.
Marx seemed to capture something about the flaws of the most unfettered capitalism, with hoarding and the problems of inequality at the centre of it all.
Economic fashions are a fickle thing.
Marx worked his way through wage, rent, credit, profit, private property vs. communism, and the relations of capital to labor. What he discovered was that acquisition of the glittering prize of the new economic system, money (and by extension the things that such capital could buy), had become the driving force in modern man’s existence, perverting every aspect of his relations with other people, even how he viewed himself. It magically enabled the rich man to become whatever he chose.
‘Stupidity, Cretinism’
Meanwhile the labor that produced the rich man’s wealth robbed the worker of his lifeblood: “It produces palaces -- but for the worker, hovels. It produces beauty -- but for the worker, deformity. It replaces labor by machines, but it throws one section of the workers back to a barbarous type of labor, and it turns the other section into a machine. It produces intelligence -- but for the worker, stupidity, cretinism.”
Marx sought to explain how this corrosive relationship had developed. He began placing man in a system in which the grand bourgeoisie, which controlled all the money as well as the means of production, dehumanized the worker by reducing him to selling his labor for a wage determined by his employer. The worker in the new industrial relationship became alienated from his work, laboring for a class of men who reaped all the benefits and gave him in return only the means to survive.
2. Brace for it - PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund manager, is worried about the world being on the eve of another financial crisis.
Here's PIMCO CEO Mohamed El Irian via Bloomberg:
“There has been a significant increase in the financial requirements of international intervention,” El-Erian said.
“You need a lot more firepower in order to be a circuit breaker. Look at how much the ECB has put in and ask yourself the question: has it created a circuit breaker? The answer is no, even though the amounts involved have been massive.”
3. Greek strike - BBC reports Athens is gridlocked because of a strike by taxi, bus and train drivers. They're not happy about a fresh round of public service job cuts and wage cuts to win the next tranche of bailout money. Even old people are grumpy.
Retiree Efthymios Gardikiotis told Associated Press: "I'm 73 years old and I will start a war. The same way [the government] wants a war."
Fellow Athenian Ioassif Roussanidis said: "I believe these [new] measures they are taking are probably the worst yet. Other countries have also gone through these crises but they handled them differently."
4. Australian job losses - The Australian reports Australian banks are on the verge of thousands of job cuts as lending growth grinds to a halt.
Major Australian banks may be forced to slash thousands of jobs, freeze wages and cut salaries for workers to offset a dramatic slowdown in business and consumer credit demand.
According to a report by investment bank UBS, the banks' workforces have grown to the highest point in more than 15 years as a result of the strong economic and financial market conditions that existed before the global downturn.
The report says the average salaries of most Australian banking workers are higher than elsewhere in the world, meaning the big four banks have some of the highest costs among their global peers.
5. European firewall - Bloomberg reports European officials are considering leveraging the money in their EFSF bailout fund to erect a 'firewall' around the PIGS to prevent contagion spreading to Italy and Spain...
Bit late now...
And more leverage? Isn't this what got us all into this mess? And following a Geithner idea? The TALF worked wonderfully. Not.
Anyway, here's the financial firefighters talking. Their earth might be about to be scorched.
“To stabilize the euro zone, we need the right firewall to prevent contagion,” French Finance Minister Francois Baroin told reporters today in Washington before meeting his Group of 20 counterparts. The firewall is the European Financial Stability Facility, and “we can discuss how to give it the necessary strength, about using the power of leverage to give it systemic force,” he said.
“It is very important that we look at the possibility of leveraging the EFSF resources and funding to have a stronger impact and make it more effective,” European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said in Washington today. He said the enhanced facility will be “up and running” in the second half of October.
The use of leverage is similar to the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset-Backed-Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, set up in 2008 after the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Under that program, the New York Fed offered loans to firms that held eligible collateral. Under the terms of the program, if borrowers didn’t repay the loan, the Fed would sell the collateral to a special-purpose entity, and the Treasury Department would be first in line to absorb any resulting losses.
6. A lost generation - AP reports on how the US recession is affecting the young most. This is the real story of this recession. How will they feel in a decade or so about paying for the health care costs and pensions of the baby boomers once they do get (often low paid and uninsured) jobs?
In record numbers, they're struggling to find work, shunning long-distance moves to live with mom and dad, delaying marriage and raising kids out of wedlock, if they're becoming parents at all. The unemployment rate for them is the highest since World War II, and they risk living in poverty more than others - nearly 1 in 5.
New 2010 census data released Thursday show the wrenching impact of a recession that officially ended in mid-2009. There are missed opportunities and dim prospects for a generation of mostly 20-somethings and 30-somethings coming of age in a prolonged period of joblessness.
"We have a monster jobs problem, and young people are the biggest losers," said Andrew Sum, an economist and director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University. He noted that for recent college graduates getting by on waitressing, bartending and odd jobs, they will have to compete with new graduates for entry-level career positions when the job market does improve.
"Their really high levels of underemployment and unemployment will haunt young people for at least another decade," Sum said.
7. 'Bail out the banks again' - The Guardian reports IMF boss Christine Lagarde is not pulling any punches on the need for European banks to be recapitalised, which may mean nationalisation for a few.
Addressing journalists in Washington at the opening of the IMF's annual meeting, Lagarde said that Europe must tackle "this twin problem of sovereign debt and the need to strengthen capital buffers". She said: "It is critical that to fuel growth, banks be in a position to finance the economy, to finance enterprises, to finance households, to finance local governments. To do that they need to have the balance sheet that will actually support credit to the economy."
Despite the recent stress tests carried out by the European Banking Authority, which suggested that most of the banks were well-placed to cope with the sovereign debt crisis, the IMF estimates that banks have taken a €300bn (£260bn) hit in the past year as a result of the growing risk of default by Greece and other vulnerable eurozone countries.
Lagarde's call came as Baudouin Prot, BNP's chief executive, emphatically denied reports that it was in talks with Middle Eastern investors about securing a capital injection. "I formally deny this," he said. "We have no particular contact because we don't need a capital increase."
But French bank shares – which have lost 50% of their value in three months – continued to fall as markets endured one of their worst trading days since 2009. BNP was off more than 5% and close rival Société Générale fell almost 10%.
8. The new normal - Leith van Onselen does a great job at Macrobusiness of showing how Australian households are saving more and what it might mean for the housing market.
Some great charts. Well worth a click through.
He points to a speech yesterday by RBA Deputy Governor Phil Lowe.
And van Onselen points to the dis-saving that coincided with the housing boom. What happens if the savings rate returns to 'normal'? Do house prices fall?
As shown by the below chart from Bill Mitchell, the running-down of the savings ratio over the past decade or so was really an aberration and this ratio appears to merely be returning to its long-run trend level. As you can see, if we get historical reversion, savings could go much higher again
9. The Fed's failure - Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach points out money printing didn't work in Japan and it won't work in America. A good discussion about the Fed's failure.
10. Totally The End of the World as we know it from one of my favourite banks bands (REM), that announced they were breaking up yesterday.
11. Totally a bonus Clarke and Dawe video because I always put it in on a Friday. There's a lot of buzzing and talk about asuylum seekers, Nauru and Malaysia.
12. Utterly a totally bonus video especially for my wife who often tells me I'm not nearly as attractive as George Clooney.
112 Comments
#10 I wish my bank was as cool as yours.
LOL...
Don't you dare fix it Bernard!!
I write the word bank way too often for my own good.
Note to self: must get out more
cheers
Bernard
Oh, I imagine the young will be less than overjoyed with the world they inherit.
"10. Totally The End of the World as we know it from one of my favourite banks (REM), that announced they were breaking up yesterday."
Banks on the brain...
Some things are perfect indicators that life is about to take a 180 degree turn . Such as when Donald Trump says to buy gold , you know that is the kiss of death for the precious metal . Or when folk start brushing up on their Marxian philosophy , you can guess that the gloom is at it's deepest , and that things will probably get a whole lot better from here on out .
... best just to kick back and listen to some tunes from one of the world's greatest banks , REM .
Pah - the time to turn bullish is when the last deluded bull (ie you GBH) turns bearish. I figure that aint happening anytime soon since until now you have been impervious to the evidence set before thee.
The evidence is that Residential Equity Mutual ( a.k.a. REM ) is one of the finest banks in the world .... Bernard said so ... so there !
You're an absolute treasure Gummy. Live long and prosper.
How soon before the expected credit crunchy sound escapes the piigs euro pen...and lights the fuse under mortgage rates in NZ!
No amount of Bollard ocr games will put that fuse out. Demand for credit is heading down. Building sector falling below the new normal. Chch rebuild delay on top of delay as the rocks and boulders beneath rumble away.
Worst of all...the exodus of the unemployed and unskilled to aus will reverse as the lucky country goes pear shaped.
Time to get that veg garden underway and the chook house set up...time to form up with mates and buy a Predator...time to clean the rifle and sharpen the knife.
You're onto it Wolly. Amanda's hobbit house shows the future of the real estate market
Taihoa on the baked beans and guns Wolly.
I'm not so sure mortgage rates will rise.
I'm more in the 'Turning Japanese' camp which says interest rates are suppressed lower for longer.
cheers
Bernard
"It is critical that to fuel growth, banks be in a position to finance the economy, to finance enterprises, to finance households, to finance local governments. To do that they need to have the balance sheet that will actually support credit to the economy."
What she doesn't point out is -- it doesn't automatically mean THESE banks have to exist to do the job. THESE useless and badly run banks could be wound up and replaced with new banks that don't have the debt problems.
Great idea. Let's fix the debt problem with more debt.
Eject the debt as realised losses on bond holders.
Ralph - that's just silly.
Banks share the problem, whether they are there or not. Growth cannot go on indefinitely in a finite sphere of operations.
End story.
Banking as it is set up, dies without growth. So too does investment, profit, and the assumption that debts will be inflated away.
Growth stops half-way through whatever fuels it. Not at the end or when it's 'all run out'. Half way. We're there. Globally, growth is over.
Better banks won't fix the problem.
"Banking as it is set up, dies without growth"....ie without borrowing from the banks. This is the poison flowing in this economy. It is now so dominant that none of the goons involved are willing to drive down the demand for credit. Low rates are the sugar coating offered to entice the suckers into debt.
Across the ditch that demand is falling. The fools have started to realise the tide has gone way out.
Yes ................we are stuffed
Wally - not so. Even if you took the fiat bit out completely, we don't grow from here. Had we hit it without the combined leverages (fiat lending, mortgages, profit expectations, debt) it would have been a gentle bump. As it is, there's quite a bubble gonna have to pop.
Defaults there will be, but whose de fault is, is a bit more complex than just saying 'banks'.
Oh I see ...you were on about the end of the world of resources and such stuff...yeah well maybe...maybe not....H1N1 will sort the place out...Aliens will arrive to wipe out the excess of Humans...treat us the way we treat the Elephants...low and behold we discover we are a Galactic sub species with little capacity to think...now where's my pension!
Did you not look on the notice-board?
They scrapped it.
I was all borrowed money anyway, from banks. They knew you wouldn't have liked it, makes it easier this way.
IIIIIIIIIIIIIITSSSSSS Friday..Yay......neato ay..!
In honour of the Financial crisis ...those who helped us get there....those who believe they forecast it.
hope you find something to relieve the tension.
What's the definition of optimism? An Investment Banker ironing five shirts on a Sunday evening. What do you call five hedge fund managers at the bottom of the ocean? A good start. The credit crunch is getting bad, isn't it? I mean, I let my brother borrow a ten bucks a couple of weeks back, it turns out I'm now New Zealand's fourth biggest lender. Resolving to surprise her husband, an investment banker's wife pops by his office. She finds him in an unorthodox position, with his secretary sitting in his lap. Without hesitation, he starts dictating, "…and in conclusion, gentlemen, credit crunch or no credit crunch, I cannot continue to operate this office with just one chair!" We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don't know . . . and those who don't know they don't know. An Economist is someone who didn't have enough personality to become an accountant. The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist. The Second Law of Economists: They're both wrong. Q: How many Chicago School economists does it take to change a light bulb? A: None. If the light bulb needed changing the market would have already done it. Q: How many mainstream economists does it take to change a light bulb? A: Two, one to change the bulb and one to assume the existence of ladders. Q: How many conservative economists does it take to change a light bulb? A1: None. The darkness will cause the light bulb to change by itself. A2: None. If it really needed changing, market forces would have caused it to happen. A3: None. If the government would just leave it alone, it would screw itself in. Q: How many B-school doctoral students does it take to change a light bulb? A: I'm writing my dissertation on that topic; I should have an answer for you in about 5 years.
Sorry Bernard just have to include this one........
“I think to leave my husband,” complained the wife of the economist.
“All he ever does stand at the foot of the bed and tell me how good or bad things are going to be.”
#1 - She's a trained journalist and a self-proclaimed historian. And it shows!
http://www.bancroftpress.com/mgabriel_bio.html
It's gotta be the worst article I've ever read - more "snippets" from an historic gossip column than anything insightful about his theoretical work.
Try this instead;
Fun to watch as well!!!
.
Another 250 jobs gone in canterbury today..meat works gone.....
We are indeed stuffed! apparently insiders have stopped buying on Wall street,an Ominous sign that portends S.H.T.F..
My Secret Agent Man within GSJBW assures me that through all of July & August there has been increased " insiders " activity on the ASX . Directors have been busily purchasing their company's shares for their own account or for their private superannuation fund . Over 90 % of insider trades have been buys .
Sure that's not 'byes'?
Irregardless, the 'market' isn't a true indicator of anything - I kind of laugh when it lurches and there's a flurry of comment. The underlying trends are inexorable, unanswerable, and longer-term. It's like watching a balloon bursting on the Titanic - draws the attention but it's not the real story.
Is that true GBH? Back in the day I was a close follower of directors buys/sells, but eventually came to the conclusion they were not as great a marker as made out to be. I recall seeing an academic study a few months ago which came to the conclusion they were not great signals either.
Ironically I read about a month ago (before this all started to blow up) that Dow/S+P insiders were big buyers - I thought they were bonkers then and I still do.
Gotta run : Yup , that is on the ASX but , not the USA . But insiders are 9 to 1 voting for their stock by buying . Bye !
It is amazing that in that search for explanations for the current crisis that even the views of Marx are being unearthed. If Marxists like David Harvey think that they have the answers, why did they not predict the crisis? It is certainly true that the rich are getting richer at the expense of everyone else, but what do you expect when you have governments trying to run everything? We know that in the Marxist experiments of the past there is always a rich elite, a massive underclass and the virtual elimination of the middle classes. As the state grows we come closer and closer to emulating those Marxist disasters. The overwhelming consensus of politicians today is that there needs to be more regulations, more control. They never see themselves as the problem. The road to serfdom is a well-trodden path, but our politicians and economists seem to want to drive down it one more time, perhaps looking for a side-road that leads to a more pleasant destination.
I can see why you lost the war. :)
Steve Keen takes a lot from Karl Marx economics. He predicted the crisis pretty accurately.
This is a book review of the two volumes by Harvey which Roubini and Keen read to inform their understanding.
If you like either of those MSM commentators;
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v33/n03/benjamin-kunkel/how-much-is-too-much
then this is a must read - and you'll quite understand why they 'get it'.
pdk - figure you've read them, but if not, you'll really appreciate the concluding discussion where the reviewer discussed the authors speculation about the end game.
"You can't touch me I'm part of the union....blah de blah de blah" sick as in corrupt...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ one of Obama's poor!
FYI China and Japan have cast Europe adrift, saying it will have to solve its own problems.
Interesting comments too here from John Key in Christchurch via Stuff saying we'll be fine because China will be fine.
He's a mighty confident man:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/5675165/New-Zealand-will-survive-with-…
''The interesting piece I think for New Zealanders is can Asia stay decoupled from that process because if it can then we're going to get through all this.
''There are two things that affect that, the biggest by far is China. It's everything that's driving Australia so if you go and talk to the Reserve Bank of Australia half of their macro economic forecasting team are China watchers. And that's because what's driving Australia is fundamentally the investment of capital into the mining sector in Australia. So as long as China stays strong, Australia stays strong and frankly I think New Zealand will stay strong as you saw from Fonterra's result.''
I have reason to suspect John Key may be a politician - he's telling people what they want to hear.
FYI even Bill Gates now says the world needs a financial transaction tax (Robin Hood or Tobin Tax)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/sep/22/bill-gates-backs-robin…
European sources said the UK had been lobbying hard for Gates to water down his draft report, which says that the tax could raise hundreds of billions of dollars a year and that Britain's stamp duty is an example of a levy on finance that works without the need for universal adoption.
"If G20 members or some other set of countries (eg within the EU), can agree on the outlines of a financial transaction tax, Bill's report is likely to argue it could generate substantial revenues," the note to the G20 says.
"For example, some modelling suggests that even a small tax of 10 basis points on equities and two basis points on bonds would yield about $48bn on a G20-wide basis, or $9bn if confined to larger European economies. Some FTT proposals offer substantially larger estimates, in the $100-250bn range, especially if derivatives are included.
The big question is can China stay strong?
It doesn''t take a crash in China to badly affect Australasia - all it would take is annual growth slowing from the current 9% to say 5%
I'm not convinced that will happen, but there are a few worrying signs in China, so I'm not convinced it won't happen!!!!!
I've got to say Key is a total idiot if he has any thought that Asia can be decoupled from the mess evolving in the Eurozone and the USA. Sure, it might be able to struggle on reasonably well, but decoupled? No way!
Many major European banks need to recap but can only get taxpayer loot...more than 100 billion is needed...but even that does not make them safe as much of their govt bond asset base is subject to state default. In other words there are many major banks that ought to be closed down...the states bailing out the depositors and not the share holders or bankers...but each state clings desperately to what are already state owned banks..closing them down means taxpayer losses....and any which way you look the pollies are about to be strung up..
The banks have all but stopped lending to each other. Each knows the others are lying about the shite hidden on the balance sheets..would you lend to a Greek bank..ie would you deposit your savings in one...how about an Italian bank...or a froggy bank....thought not.
The endgame approaches. Losses must happen. Which banks will go first...which domino depend on them not going under....what will the losses be for the american banks..the german and uk banks......what will happen to the cost of credit....the real value of paper money.....
100 billion? yeah right....
Im not even sure 1 trillion E will cover it....me thinks....maybe not even 3T.
So the Q is what is the outcome? for me its going to be default because money is an iou for enrgy that wont be there....
So the quahtity of money has to shrink to meet the available enrgy....and keep shrinking... hence deflation.
regards
Or the value of money has to drop, hence in/hyperinflation.
Australia is not doing well because of China, its because of a massive un-burst housing bubble. This bubble has been exacerbated several times be Australian government policy. When it goes the banking sector of Australia and naturally New Zealand is going to crash.
New Zealand needs a policy which isolates the finance and banking sector of New Zealand from other economies, now!
I've had an idea for ending the credit crisis... and I would like anyone who knows more than me to tell me why it wouldn't work.
I think that Western governments with large debt problems (US, UK, Greece, etc) should refinance through compulsory issue of long term bonds to their citizens. That is, instead of putting up tax rates on wealthy Americans (which will never fly) Obama should instead legislate to force wealthier citizens to purchase long term debt at very low interest rates. That way, it's an investment (admittedly not a great one) but they will get their money back, so it's better than a tax.
In this way people will be bailing their governments out, after their governments bailed them out (by taking on all the bad private debts of lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Anglo-Irish bank and the like). Seems fitting and right to me, and the money is there to do this - its just being put into gold or put under the mattress at the moment.
It could be made a more enticing idea by offering prize incentives (like Bonus Bonds only less naff). But I think the best way to sell it would be to appeal to patriotism and put countries on a war footing - the would be "War bonds". Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country etc.
This idea is on the cards , with US pension funds being eyed up by the Obama administration , to hold a greater proportion of their equity in US Gov't Treasuries ...... and this isn't such a quantam step from Jolly Kid trying to mandate that Kiwisaver funds hold at least 40 % of their funds within NZ .
... it's a corruption ! .. this is " big brother " over-riding the rights of citizens ( yet again ) , in an effort to socialize the losses from the finance industry .
Remind me , Mikeh , when Goldman Sachs , Bear Sterns , Lehman Brothers , Washington Mutual , AIG , Northern Rock , and all those other investment banks were making obscene profits ..... and granting their directors & traders astronomical bonuses , were they willing to nationalize their profits ?
For once I agree with your GBH, but its going to get uglier I think....
I think spain? mandates or expects that the Public service union/council pension funds are mostly? in spanish debt....and its likely that the spanish Govn and even some councils will default....bye bye many ppls pensions......the USA has already emptied its US pension fund? didnt Bush empty it?
I think JK and BE have been pressurising/expecting that? the Cullen Fund does just that and more is invisioned? and it would surprise me if Kiwisaver is dragged in....then it will really be a tax by stealth....that's the trouble with compulsory savings its open to abuse by Govns....and it will be abused.....they will get desperate when paying down the debt by 2015 hasnt happened or is way slower.....
Throw in once the recession/depression realy starts and kiwisaver accounts will start to haemorrage value.....screw that....I just added $160 a month to my mortgage repayments, at least I know Im getting a return which I cant see the Govn "removing" from me easily.
Mikeh is nuts......no one is that stupid to put that much money into Govn debt....not long term.....they are running there now as a safe haven....but expect 20~30% return annualy....not 2%........
regards
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=107…
Latest from gareth Morgan
The comments are the most interesting bit. Agree or not agree with The Big Kahuna, the interesting thing is the amount of comment that seems to be negative yet seems to have no understanding at all about what the book is describing, either the current tax system or their alternative.
The right in the US use similar tactics- get in early, make it up, never ever discuss things rationally. Focus on damming something rather than debating. So we have the first bunch of comments - straight out of the blocks going on about doll bludgers- never a mention that under the current system they are already doll bludgers, just that under the Big Kahuna they will be doll bludgers. So the right is focused on maintaining the current tax system that works very well for them, No Capital Gains or wealth tax, many ways to reduce taxable income while keeping the benifit. No Inheritance tax. All good stuff for the very few families in New Zealand that own most of it, just not so good for the rest of us.
Tell me again why the current system of Tax is such a good idea, why 15% GST is good? Why high Income tax is good? Why encouraging high debt and massive interest payments is good, Why pushing people into over spending on property is good? Why expensive houses are good?
They aren't good, the right knows this but the current tax system works for the few New Zealanders who are seriously rich.
Why do we never talk about how much of that wealth is inherited vs earned. The myths are all about hard work but most wealth is inherited in theis country and most other places. The Waton family in the US did not build Wallmart- but they get to keep all the money for ever, the kind of wealth they now have creates massive problems for society
Agree. In particular, those straight out-of-the-box moaners fail to see that a UBI actually changes all the current perverse incentives of our existing welfare system which discourage independence through productive work.
It's an irony because the Big Kahina is the only policy proposal that I've seen that actually has a chance of solving what they see as the problem.
So, either they simply don't understand the perverse incentives of the current system or they are presently invested in unproductive assets... and they simply don't want to have to think about putting their own accumulated capital to productive work. If the latter is the case - then they are the REAL lazy individuals.
So tell all of us Kate...where did the 'perverse incentives' come from...what brought about their expansion into Kiwi life...why did the people not object.....over to you Kate.....!
When I first read Gareth Morgan's "big kahuna" I could see the obvious flaws in it (and there are some). However, Kate's enthusiasm for it is infectious and the more I have read and thought about it, the more interesting it becomes. The current system of re-distribution of wealth is so flawed it is now beyond "tinkering with". It needs a complete rethink. And so The Big Kahuna is worth serious consideration. One question that needs examination is this. In the current system has people at the top of the heap and people at the bottom of the heap. If you lift the bottom of the heap UP, usually the top of the heap rises at the same time, by the same quantum, and the social malaise persists. Lifting everyone who is currently on the bottom of the heap up to $11000 pa merely re-defines the location of the bottom of the heap. What will happen to those who fall through the cracks through serious illness or disability. Will $11000 UBI do it for them? Or do you start implementing exceptions and exemptions, which in turn can be exploited, ending up back in the same original mess.
Thanks! I am certainly enthusiastic.
A further comment on this thought of yours:
The current system of re-distribution of wealth is so flawed it is now beyond "tinkering with".
The longer this present crisis of capital goes on globally - the more I see this as true. There is a political/economic/social theory called "incrementalism", or "muddling through". I think JK is a good example of a politician which follows this path - a sort of try this tweek and see if it makes a difference. And he tweeks in all directions - so one never knows what his overall strategy, vision or direction is... aside from "muddling through". He'd probably call himself a pragmatist - but I think that's too kind. He's a confused ditherer. A muddler.
Gareth's proposal on the other hand is a serious step change - not focused (to my mind) on re-distribution of wealth, but rather it focuses on re-distribution of capital - with the intention of such re-distribution being towards more productive (i.e. employment orientated) purposes.
Whether the intention would be realised is anybody's guess, but one thing we don't need to guess about is the fact that the current (global as well as local) use of surplus/excess capital (and 'ficticious capital' i.e. debt) is in a tragic mess.
Gareth's proposal turns every adult citizen into a ward of the state . We all become beneficiaries .
Rubbish - those of us working simply get the first (roughly) $30,000 we earn tax free - and after that we only pay a flat rate of 30% on the balance of our earnings.
You must not be one of us actually working, GBH.
.
There is neither a need to be rude to those who you don't agree with , nor a need to jump to conclusions .
GBH isnt in NZ....
regards
Oh, so he's an ex-pat overseas who doesn't want his super to go down?
If you're going to continue to attack the blogger , and not the argument , then it is a waste of time trying to have an intelligent debate with you .
..... I have stated before , I have no intention of applying for a government pension in the future . No need to .
Look, there's no shame in being a superannuitant and hence having a concern about this proposal. GM is open about that.
If not an OAP, then I can only imagine you're an ex-pat absentee asset owner not wanting to earn your first $30,000 in income tax free, because on the other side of the Kahuna equation your capital isn't earning the 6% return and you figure you'll pay more tax?
The reason I make this assumption is because the "we all become beneficiaries" comment can only be a red herring from your perspective (as I can tell you're well informed and therefore understand fully the Kahuna proposal).
Go on, Gummy, debate that one intelligently.
.. and that is the third consecutive comment where you have made erroneous assumptions about me .
What on God's green earth has my personal background got to do with the debate about Gareth Morgan's proposal ?
... can you not comprehend that some of us seek the economic betterment of the country as a whole , and are not swayed by our personal circumstances ? .. I believe that many bloggers here argue from an altruistic perspective .
Please stop being so presumptious and condescending .
What on God's green earth has my personal background got to do with the debate about Gareth Morgan's proposal ?
It's your one-liner comment that "we all become beneficiaries under The Big Kahuna". As I pointed out that's a red herring as quite the opposite is true - those of us working simply get our first $30K of income tax free - and then pay 30% tax on all additional income thereafter. You need to explain why that would make me a beneficiary?
Secondly, under the Big Kahuna most existing beneficiaries would see a decrease in their benefits. Freeing them up to undertake self-help strategies as a means to improve their present circumstances. I'd be keen to know what your opposition to that is.
So, I welcome your intelligent debate - but I'm also happy for you to use the strawman argument that your personal circumstance does not prejudice your opinion and therefore you choose to simply back out of the discussion because I have offended you.
Only serves to prove my point - not yours.
Just remember, gummy, those two are not New Zealanders. Stay and fight the good fight for kiwi's who are actually interested in seeing our country prosper rather than being a refugee for the world's failed marxists.
By the way, I'm in Sieam Reap. Angkor Wat is stunning, but sadly it has flooded here. And I mean flooded. I'm having to wade to and from the hotel in knee deep water, and a stroll around the town involves a fair bit of swimming. God alone knows what water borne diseases I'm at risk of getting, but hopefully with the meedical innovation of the good old capitalist system I'll soon find a cure for them when I get home.
Hullo DB : That looks like a brilliant place . I'm heading in that direction next month , feel free to give me a heads-up on the must-do's and the must-don'ts of Siem Reap .
www.canbypublications.com/siemreap/srhome.htm
... it's late in the season , but we're still getting tropical convergences , the monsoon lingers . We're on mosquito alert , they're carrying dengue fever virus . And as ever , only partaking of purified water .
.. even out here in the Philippine boondocks I got to watch the AB's thrash France 37-17 , on ESPN TV . ... And enjoyed a Sth African red wine , whilst the match progressed .
Life is good , my friend , very good .
Wow - David - that tackling from real Kiwi No 8 was outstanding !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rz31VhUEoA
..and look at the Warriors (all Kiwis) vs Storm 20: 12
That was a great game to watch Walter:) and the warriors game was awesome also.
David B,
Medical research and development hasn't been driven by the private sector since the 1920s. The vast majority of funding for medical research has come from the public sector and our life expectancy is largely owed to public investments in sanitation and hygiene since the Victoria Era. Sewerage and water purification etc. Precious little to do with capitalism.
It is unfair calling it a socialist system.
In the same way if the Greens came in and promised everyone say $15k a year GMI with a corresponding 30-35% flat tax, Act might come in and reduce the GMI down to perhaps $5k and a 20% flat tax. That wouldn't be too socialist.
Its all about were the thresholds are set.
Who called it " a socialist system " , Banksterbasher ?
... here's my point , the big kahuna proposal greatly increases the power of the government over the people . Even high income folk become wards of the state . All adults are beneficiaries .
Good on Gareth Morgan for shaking up the " welfare state " mentality of NZ . But his plan presents many hazards too . Imagine if you will , the ne'er do wells in the Kahui household , those who stood idly by whilst twin baby boys were murdered ; that family will do nicely , 5 or 6 adults under one roof , pooling their $ 11000 apieice p.a. free money .
.. and as you correctly state , how could we trust the politicians not to alter the thresholds to suit their party's agenda .
GBH - isn't that exactly the kind of currently dysfunctional family which we would like to see using their own initiative - being free to pool their resources, unhindered by the "rules" of the welfare state, able live amongst wider whanau and as you say and "do nicely" for the sake of the children?
The "sake of the children" clearly doesn't rate highly in that particular dysfunctional family. I doubt the Big Kahuna, or any other reform, could ever fix that.
I don't think it increases the power over the people any more so than what we have currently.
The poor are reliant on government for their benefits, the middle class are reliant on the government for their WWF, and the rich are reliant on the government for their tax free capital gain loophole.
What it does do is;
-Cut out a hang of a lot of the inefficiencies in the system.
-It thins out half the regulation and compliance costs for small business (half the accountancy industry).
-Makes incentives linier i.e. the harder you work the more money you make from your first dollar to your last, no matter how you make it.
-Prevents distortions like high property prices and family trust usage for tax avoidance.
It is the least worse tax/walfare structure I have seen.
Don't get me wrong , Gummy would dearly love to witness a system that scraps the IRD & WINZ ..... but it still leaves alot of power in the hands of the government of the day . And government's change both their collective minds , and their collective seating patterns in the parliament .
.... this is also one of Wolly's bugbears with Iain Parker's Public Credit .
These theories sound fine in of themselves .
.... but who supervises the " guardians " , who holds the politicians to account ? .. the voters .... aha ha de haaaa ! ( we can bribe them off , successfully done it so many times before )
All power to Gareth Morgan , no one else has come up with anything so " game-changing " .
Where is Iain anyway? has Berno kicked him off here?
Iain has to work ! .. Some evil bankster created credit out of thin air , and granted Iain a home mortgage . Those usurious rotten-sodden Aussie banks now expect dear sweet Parksy to pay interest on the loan , which put a roof over his wife & childrens heads .
Yeah, and I do like Wolly's fully comprehensive solutions to our monetary and fiscal woes.
Oh wait, thats right, he hasn't got any, and he hasn't ever offered any.
Jeez you want answers too....can't you work it out yourself banksterbasher!...
There are many pathways to reach the 'healthy economy' position....but there are also many fatheads and idiots keen on dropping spanners into the works to prevent real change.
You will not change the Kiwi culture...no matter how friggin big the Kahuna is.
Better to put the effort in at the lower levels. Discourage borrowing full stop. Don't vote for fatheads promising to spend and work magic. Cut your personal waste. Teach your sprogs what it means to be frugal and thrifty. Make your own beer and booze with the fruit waste.
Roger – the more I read from you about this issue the more I think your mind is confused.
You do not accept that most of the powerfools in societies ethic and moral requirements and standards simply don’t prevail. These elements are part of governments , the legal system, and a big chunk members of the so called "free societies".
Don't get me wrong, I am all for a much smaller government lower taxes and more freedom.
It is not gowing to happen to the extent I hope for, given Kiwi's expectations in their government.
Just think the Kahuna idea achieves todays objectives in the most effective way I have seen.
Yes , but I recall 1999 , when the newly elected finance minister took it upon himself to launch a campaign against " rich pricks " and against business generally . It only takes one foolish government to screw up a system . Do we ignore history , and believe that a future " Cullen " won't cleave off a section of the voters with similar bribes ?
.... has the Big Kahuna proposal got enough checks & balances to withstand such meddling by politicians ?
muddling through actual becomes muddling on.....
Iconoclast, $11,000 UBI will never do it. Without labouring tthe point, many people are poor becuase of their own behaviours around money, education, mental health etc.etc. You could set the UBI at $50,000 and it still wouldn't be enough for some.They will always be in debt. At $11,000 it would only be a matter of time before various groups would call on the govt to increase spending in certain areas, by for example making a rent subsidary available for those only on the UBI. Before long we will be right back where we started from. The UBI and an extensive array of welfare benefits. Don't be fooled by the theory of the big kahuna. It won't work and it never will. Yes, Kate loves it. But that by itself should tell you its a dog of an idea. People and societies don'tlive according to theorictical constructs, theorictical constructs are invented to try and explain how and why they live that way. Trying to force people to live according to a some fine theroy is a delusion, common among those who study and teach the soft sciences, the humanities.
Where I am writing this from, had one of the most tragic cases of the 20th centurary in trying to force people to live according to one guy's big idea. The consequences to the people of this lovely country was an uninmaginable horror, and death on the most tragic and brutal of scales when people didn't do or live their lives in accordance with the big kahuna of Pol Pot ideas. The poverty in Cambodia remains almost overwhelming, and as far as I am concerned can be layed directly at the feet of its past big kahuna, socialism.
How about this? Ask Gareth Morgan why he thinks Serepiso's ass is worth saving by buying into Phoenix FC? Serepiso is the very person Gareth should be criticizing. He THOUGHT he was 'rich" and almighty UNTIL his very own property bubble burst. Now he's just like the rest out there. A greedy shit who is now found wanting with tax to pay.
I like Gareth,but he's a total hypocrite on this one. Serepiso is a great example of what is wrong in NZ. People idolize the guy like he cured cancer. Parasites cure nothing.
Justice, you got that all wrong - the new owners didn't bail Terry out at all... nothing was paid to take over the Phoenix. They simply took over the licence to run the club. Any past debts Terry owes to management, players etc. he still owes.
See this CloseUp interview with Gareth Morgan;
http://tvnz.co.nz/close-up/friday-september-23-4417495/video
That said though, Gareth does praise Terry for what he did over the years for soccer - and I think that's fair enough. As far as his property empire and his limelight seeking in terms of the NZ apprentice show - granted, he's (misguidedly) full of himself.
Kate, your an intelligent woman and I know this. So lets call it 'saving face' then. Quite simply Terry can't afford to play the game anymore, The Phoenix was just a way for him to sink some tax money and that's fine, but let's all see the guy for what he was and is. His training apprentices days are over.
Dude no one idolizies Serepiso in any regard... ppl give him the respect he is due for what he has done for NZ football, me included, the property problems he's got are outside and separate to this matter.
Doll bludging you say? My niece isn't going to like it when I tell her that her Barbie is at risk of assault........
"A bank run has begun in Europe, with epicenter in France. The land of France belongs among the PIGS nations, since the big French banks are the primary broken shepherd creditors for the PIGS. They hold more than all the other nations combined almost in Greek debt. They own huge levels Italian debt. Siemens and Lloyds have abandoned France, yanking money out. A BANK RUN IN FRANCE GATHERS SPEED TO MAKE A CRATER IN EUROPEAN BANKING SYSTEM."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30577.html
Siemens, the German industrial group, recently withdrew more than €500m in cash deposits from Société Générale( ft.com)
What does this mean for silly Kiwi....for a start it means more costly credit as the banks have to refi the loans they took out....that is to say your mortgage rate will rise....Bollard can play all the ocr games he wants...the RBNZ is powerless to prevent the rise.
What will rising rates do for an economy allowed and encouraged by govts to become dependent on bank credit...already way over 100 billion in private debt....it means the end game has arrived..the brown stuff is up the walls...huge losses for the fools.
Those who believed the hype the bullshit and spin since 07, who failed to pay off debt...or were stupid enough to take it on....your time has come. The tide is going out fast.
Them what paid off debt..told the banks to feck off...got into the veg garden and packed away the supplies...avoided the long term debenture investments in stuff not guaranteed...your time in the sun has arrived but it will be a weak old summer though...sorry bout that. Be happy to have survived.
If a top German industrials group grabs back its loot from a French bank...what does it say about your savings in a NZ bank...safe as houses....right?
"NZ currency heading for US72c unless economic data from Europe and US turns positive, say experts" herald
That would mean what?....more costly fuel...imported inflation yes!....leading to an end to Bollard's near zirp game.
Meanwhile commodity prices drop away in line with the downward direction of world economic activity....and we have yet to see the rise in the cost of credit that must come from the bank battle to survive the onslaught set to destroy the weakest banks. This will not be confined to the idiot banks that bankrolled the piigs or that loaned imagined credit to the banks that then loaned it many times over to the piigs....The whole stinking pile of shit is set to explode.
Wolly, on dennenger this morning is a video clip, they are talking about a tillion dollars of losses just in German banks, thats the problem we dont know how big, as you put it so eloquently the 'pile of shit is'. I think against the Euro we may gain, against the US$, i wouldn't be too confident of us dropping too far, the US is counting on a low dolar to encourage exports. I see container traffic is back %10 into the west cost of the USA in one month, consumption is collapsing and this week in Europe wont help it any. I know from reading abbout the 30's that export dependent nations like us can get hammered this time may be worse. Did you raed last week where %25 of people over 55 in the UK have less than £500 in the savings. I think its loss of pensions that is really going to hurt a lot of the west. We will know when our government is serious as they will start on the state sector pig trough, until then its all talk.
Commodities are getting hit hard, we are in for some tough years as I dont see how the government can continue these levels of spending for long.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx
If i owned Euro's id be buying Gold with them, would you sell your gold for Euro;s?
One risk as Dr Wilson points out is that Germany ends up with control of Europe, personaly Im waiting for the Generals to step in and take over Greece must be close now.
drjonathanwilson
The key with regard to the economic and financial future of
Europe is the direction that Germany will take.
There are two primary but competing visions at play in Germany that
will determine what strategic choices will be made. What is common to both these visions is that neither of them are internationalist but rather they are both nationalist and authoritarian in character and outcome. Both of these visions reflect the same impetus towards the re-establishment of the Deutsches Reich – the intent of which is Bismarckian – to preserve the balance of power in Europe particularly with regards to France and Russia.
What then differentiates these two competing visions of Germany? The first vision sees the German national interest being best served by controlling much of Europe through the institutions of the EU – France tied closely to Germany on the West and a European bloc of sufficient size to deter the Russians on the East. This vision sees Brussels as a European Reichstag.
Current German political leaders who actively support this Brussels
Reichstag vision are Angela Merkel, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Sigmar Gabriel, Horst Seehofer, Gesine Lötzsch, Klaus Ernst, Claudia Roth,
and Cem Özdemir.
These current German political leaders represent about 85% of the voting power in the current Bundestag. The importance of this overwhelming voting power in favour of the Brussels Reichstag is that when push comes to shove and the necessary legislation is needed in a hurry to establish an EU Treasury and EU Finance Minister in support of the issuance of Euro-bonds and draw Germany
into an EMU debt union it will undoubtedly pass.
The desperation of the EMU periphery at this moment means
that the corresponding legislation subjugating their fiscal sovereignty to that of the Brussels Reichstag in return for Eurobond funding will in turn pass quickly in the crisis atmosphere.
Checkmate!
But is it not just check without the mate?
And that is the view of those who support the second vision
for Germany.
This vision says two things – (a) the first vision is not workable and will bankrupt Germany (correct), and (b) a powerful Germany
is built upon a powerful currency and without economic power there can be no European influence by which to protect Germany both West and East. This is the Berlin Reichstag vision.
Current political leaders who hold to the second vision include
Philipp Rösler pretty much on his own and diminishing in political influence in the Bundestag. Others outside the Bundestag include
Christian Wulff, Axel Weber and Juergen Stark (Bundesbank). The Berlin Reichstag visionaries are the realists but will unfortunately not prevail in preventing the coming German and European disaster.
And Britain in all of this? Too soon to tell but the LibDems need ditching ASAP
Jonathan
"Im waiting for the Generals to step in and take over Greece must be close now."
Yep
What would teh German's do with Europe? its fscked...
regards
This was the best rated comment on that article
Otsuka Duojinshi 1 day ago Contrary to the gloom and doom being posited just about everywhere, I think this is all really good news.
A few quotes of the prophetic Ludwig von Mises illustrates the paths we travel:
"Inflation and credit expansion, the preferred methods of present day government openhandedness, do not add anything to the amount of resources available. They make some people more prosperous, but only to the extent that they make others poorer."
"If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns into the crack-up boom; the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders."
And Finally:
"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
Why is what AEP has written GOOD NEWS? Well, the markets, the fabulous global interconnected communications we enjoy are letting these stumbling bumbling buffoons know that the party is over and Mommy & Daddy aren't bailing you out of jail this time. Oberführer Obama & Gauleiter Geitner are basically telling the EU - Hey buddy, we got problems of our own, man - like OUR JOBS.
Yes, it is going to be a motherfo of a credit train wreck - BUT that is the SOONER part that von Mises is talking about. Yep, its gonna get ugly for 2-3 years. Then, rebirth sans Socialism. Yippee!
Think about that bright shining day ahead - no Brussels braying donkeys telling you how to live. Coming Soon. Good News Indeed. Otsuka Duojinshi 16 hours ago No apology necessary. The 'lost decade' or 'decades' is a fascinating meme borne of lazy reporters that rely upon perhaps two Tokyo analysts - and its a meme that the Japanese finance ministry carefully cultivates in order to prevent any real examination of trade policy.
While the US, the UK and the EU were engaged in a ten year real-estate property development 'boom' that consisted primarily of finding greater fools to sell the properties to and then subsequently selling to a series of greater fools the financially securitized products, Japan was patiently becoming the world center of advanced manufacturing.
Lonely voices swim against this tide - notably Eamonn Fingleton in journalism, Ulrike Schaede in academia and many others who see the disconnect between the reality in Japan and the 'lost decades' meme. Japanese financial legerdemain would have you point to GDP growth - supposedly none - as opposed to power usage. Pay no attention to our trade surplus - nothing to see here! Pick any metric, from life expectancy, skyscraper construction, currency appreciation and any of a dozen other metrics and the Japanese don't look so lost - but in fact appear quite clever in promulgating this myth.
I'd add that when you start taking apart the supposed horrifying debt to GDP ratio that other lazy financial reporters use as evidence of the disaster that is Japan - you find even more cognitive dissonance. The US debt is the real time bomb - shoveling a trillion dollars (in the last year) into the parasitic maw of union public employees had no no payoff whatsoever - Japan's 'debt' wasn't so similarily wasted.
The US, UK, and EU are in the real deflationary throes of a real estate scam that saw a decade of plant and craft vanish to the Orient and will require a decade to unwind.
Those are and will be the real lost decades.
Almost no room for maneuver
The stock market graph over the past few months ,looks like a stunned mullet, coming back into conciousness when they think think its time to buy.We all know these fluctuations are the speed wobbles before the ass drops out of it again, then so do the buyers, they are gambling on the fact that they can shed the stock before the ride down on the big dipper.Any student of economic history knows that we are looking at the thirties stock market graphs revisited, and an economic train crash in slow motion.The political blowout when it finaly hits will test the national character of all the players. If things get bad as they are starting to in Greece, the only way to hold a structured society together will be by invoking a "Comand economy" i'm betting the first command will be the banning of private ownership of gold and silver, like they did in the thirties..they'd have to to bring some credibility to " back" the fiat currencies.
Cobber , you've been taking Bernard's continuous feed of gloom & doom to heart ! .. Chill . Nobody knows the future exactly . And no one can predict the stock markets or government actions with any certainty . Neither too can we guess at what malarky cenral bankers will come up with next anymore than we can estimate the price of niobium in 12 months time .
..... but here's some truths to hang onto : Folks around the globe will continue to want goods and services , and businesses will supply them .
The spirit of endeavour will not be stopped . People will continue to strive , and to innovate .
... and I'd rather be involved in the business sphere , in some way , than to be sitting on the sidelines , spectating .
And from such an observation of uncertainty John Maynard Keynes developed a Theory ... and the world was saved ....
..... now that's the opening of Pandora's Box , isn't it . ..... Saved the world , or merely kicked the can further down the road than Daniel Carter with a " Gilbert " ...
"Major Australian banks may be forced to slash thousands of jobs, freeze wages and cut salaries.." After Christmas, is going to be interesting..
Now, having just returned from a quick look-see in SE Qld, this does not suprise me at all! What the last 10 days has reinforced in my mind is: what relatively poor quality property ( and cars!) we have for sale in NZ, and at what an inflated price, compared to Aussie....not that I needed convincing :) But, as Chris_J posted, it's always important to keep your eyes open , get updated information and refresh your opinion.....
Always makes me wonder why our housing stock is so poor....we have low labour costs....wood should be cheap.....
regards
The answer is of course simple. Labour and materials might be 'cheap' but finance costs are expensive.
Sunday bloody Sunday..... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30580.html
Explains the copper Gold collapse...too much was borrowed short term at cheap rates to speculate on metals and some bugger at the fed has pulled the blanket away....kaaaathump.
A very good read this.
Yes quite possibly so, although I was just watching John Kicklighter and his reasoning is that people are looking for liquidity to cover short positions not performing elsewhere. USD and treasuries being the beneficiries of that. Only bonus this end is that the NZD is also a commodity so PM prices are not hit as bad in our currency.
Its Ok Wally, they are going to throw 2 tillion at it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trilli…
"Officials would hope the plan would stem the panic in the markets and stop bond vigilantes targeting Italy and Spain, which European and IMF figures believe should not be in any immediate distress but are in need of longer-term structural reform." telegraph
Hope.....hahahaaaahaaa...the same comments were made about Greece a year or two ago.
It's a boondoggle ....worse than that...it's an American boondoggle!
More debt to solve a debt crisis.
The real question is..would you buy euro and deposit it at a piigs bank...how about a french bank!
Article about gold – I think it shuts up again – over US$ 2’000.- oz in the next 2 weeks ?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2011/09/23/metals-outlook-possibl…
Thought you were into Kaikoura property investment Walter...how's the southerly blast down your way right now...time for dip in the surf!
Wolly - I never was in the game – never wanted to be in that game – even not as an ethical property stallion. I like to create and be innovative – making things.
Again the weather is much better here in Kaikoura, then the Met Service is lying – no rain since weeks - hopefully this afternoon.
Do you have some property – Wolly ?
Don't tell porkies Walter...there's a southerly buster bashing Kaikoura right now...the rain is coming in sideways!....get you togs on mate and go for splash.
Property...who doesn't own some..!
Wolly checking the radar Blenheim/ Wellington must have rain - right now. The last rain we had was 19.9. - a little. It looks like rain is coming, but ...so far no.
http://www.metservice.com/national/maps-rain-radar/rain-radar/all-nz-rain-last-6-hrs
Wolly - do you have some property, you are renting ?
Well gee Walter of course I own some...but I am renting...3br $90 a week...way above what you pay in Kaikoura!
The Met Service - no better then a betting office !!
The weather forecast from the Met Service for Kaikoura today was - Southerly heavy showers. In the morning it was cloudy/ sunny and since about 2pm cloudy along the Ranges and above us - town/ peninsula where most people live 80% blue sky – no sign of any showers.
I can only speak for Kaikoura, but how many times, they have Kaikoura not accurate, but in a negative picture – forecasting temperatures which are up to 5 degrees below reality and rain when we have plenty of sunshine.
The Met people are even not listening to local knowledge.
AMI pays bosses well, great to see they don't let the facts get in the way of a great party,
>>>>>
The troubled insurer, which was bailed out by the government after Christchurch's February earthquake, paid Balmforth a salary of $869,369 in 2011 plus a bonus for the 2010 year of $122,700, according to its 2011 financial statements.
The statements released last week are much more extensive than those released in previous years. They also show the company is in breach of both the Reserve Bank's draft solvency standards for insurance companies and the solvency standard in the Crown Support Deed which provides $500m of back-up capital.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/5678653/AMI-breaches-bailout-deed
"The EMU rested on an unlikely premise: the wisdom of Europe's commercial bankers, who had spent their careers in highly regulated domestic markets. Always before, bankers in large banks could count on their national central banks to bail them out. But, in this new world banking order, the European Central Bank does not have the flexibility to bail out all of the large national banks that are now in big trouble. There are members of the ECB's board who are part of the German-Dutch axis, which favors tighter money and stable prices. The Board must placate them to some degree. This reduces the ECB's response time".
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30616.html
Here in can be found the clue pointing to where things are heading....and it aint a pretty sight.
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