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Tuesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: 'I can't repay my loan, so cut off my finger instead'; Hamilton's ruinous V8 series; 'Chinese property prices in freefall'; Europe's toxic bond fund to buy toxic bonds; Dilbert

Tuesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: 'I can't repay my loan, so cut off my finger instead'; Hamilton's ruinous V8 series; 'Chinese property prices in freefall'; Europe's toxic bond fund to buy toxic bonds; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 1 pm in association with NZ Mint.

I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email tobernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.

The cartoon above #8 is not very respectful of Silvo Berlusconi...no more bunga bunga for me...

1. 'Cut off my finger instead' - Bloomberg has some excellent on-the-ground reporting on the debt problems with loan sharks in the key Chinese city of Wenzhou.

Everyone is looking at Europe right now, but the problems in China are at least as important for us.

The government in China has been cracking down on government owned bank lending over the last 18 months to try to slow down inflation.

In the process many people who had directly or indirectly relied on that lending were forced into the arms of private networks of lenders and loan sharks.

Now as what increasingly looks like collections of Ponzi schemes blow up, all sorts of ugliness is ensuing.

We've already heard of indebted small busines owners jumping off buildings and 'disappearing'.

Now they're offering up their fingers.

Bloomberg reports on the travails of Zhong Maojin, who built up a chain of pharmacies in Wenzhou through borrowing from friends, family and a whole lotta loan sharks.

Hours after a creditor and his gang of tattooed thugs hustled Zhong Maojin into a coffee shop in Wenzhou, he says he wouldn’t yield to their demands.

They wanted to take over one of the pharmacies in a chain he’d built by borrowing from private lenders. Instead, he made an offer of traditional retribution in this eastern Chinese city, known for loan sharks who have sometimes meted out violence to bad debtors.

“If you like, you can cut off one of my fingers instead,” Zhong, 42, says he told them.

Giving up the store would have made it impossible to pay back another 130 creditors, Zhong said. He’d borrowed 30 million yuan ($4.7 million) at interest rates as high as 7 percent a month to expand the business. Many of the lenders were elderly neighbors who’d mortgaged their homes.

2. 'Prices are in free fall' - Gordon Chang writes at Forbes that Chinese residential property prices are in free fall.

The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing.  In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project.  “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.

What started slowly in September turned into a rout by the middle of last month—normally a good period for sales—when Shanghai developers started to slash asking prices.  Analysts then expected falling property values to move Premier Wen Jiabao to relax tightening measures, such as increases in mortgage rates and prohibitions on second-home purchases, intended to cool the market.

They were wrong.  After a State Council meeting on October 29, Mr. Wen affirmed his policy, stating that local authorities should continue to “strictly implement the central government’s real estate policies in the coming months to let citizens see the results of the curbs.”  Then, the selling began in earnest as “desperate” developers competed among themselves to unload inventory.  One builder—Excellence Group—even said it would sell flats in Huizhou at its development cost.

3. The disaster in Hamilton - I am an infamous sceptic about the economic benefits of sports events promoted by politicians. That didn't make me very popular in the last couple of months, but I'll stick to my guns.

Particularly with the evidence now emerging out of Hamilton's Council about what went on to secure the V8 race that has cost ratepayers there around NZ$38.7 million, which is about the same as the loss borne by the National Government for the Rugby World Cup.

Here's Daniel Adams at The Waikato Times:

Former Hamilton City Council chief executive Michael Redman resigned as Auckland City tourism and events boss last month after being criticised in the Audit Office review of the V8 Supercar races in Hamilton.

Audit NZ said Mr Redman spent more than $3 million without authorisation, and failed to keep the council fully informed over the street race, which is expected to eventually cost ratepayers $38.7m.

City chief executive Barry Harris said his initial advice from council lawyers was that Mr Redman "may have acted in breach of his statutory obligations" by advancing host fees of $837,000 to the failing initial promoters, another $3m to their creditors after they went broke, and to a lesser extent, payments for V8 Supercars Australia's freight costs.

4. 'If Italy blows up a Depression is upon us' - Ed Harrison writes at Credit Writedowns about what the blowout in Italian bond yields to over 6.7% actually means.

He eventually sees the ECB (which means the Germans) capitulating and printing money to buy Italian bonds. The chart shows the yield on the Italian 10 year bond, which is the canary in the mine of the world's financial markets right now.

if you are an investor, this is the moment of truth. Everything – every asset class - depends on how the euro zone performs in the Italian Job. There are only two outcomes, here. If Italy blows up, a Depression is upon us; banks would be insolvent, CDS triggers would implode the system, bank runs would begin, stock markets would crash, and you will would see sovereign debt yields go to unbelievable lows for nations with a lender of last resort. If Italy survives, I would expect a monster rally in periphery debt, stock markets, and bank shares and a selloff in CDS at the minimum. However, the euro zone is already in recession so that rally will not be sustained.

Forget about Berlusconi and austerity in Italy. That's a sideshow too. Austerity is not going to bring Italian yields back down. These days are over, folks.

Here’s the real problem: Italy needs to run a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of about 5 percent of GDP, merely to keep its debt ratio constant at present yields. That’s never going to happen. So the yields for Italian bonds must come down or Italy is insolvent.

5. How Citigroup kept breaking the law - And getting away with it. Jonathan Weill at Bloomberg has written an excellent piece detailing how America's hopelessly conflicted and useless SEC keeps letting Citigroup off securities law fraud.

Again, I shake my head and wonder why the people aren't rioting in the streets of America.

Although they have at least started camping in public places.

Here's Weill:

Five times since 2003 the Securities and Exchange Commission has accused Citigroup Inc. (C)’s main broker-dealer subsidiary of securities fraud. On each occasion the company’s SEC settlements have followed a familiar pattern.

Citigroup neither admitted nor denied the SEC’s claims. And the company consented to the entry of either a court injunction or an SEC order barring it from committing the same types of violations again. Those “obey-the-law” directives haven’t meant much. The SEC keeps accusing Citigroup of breaking the same laws over and over, without ever attempting to enforce the prior orders.

6. The problem with America - Tom Ferguson talks at Alternet.org about the cancer at the heart of American democracy: money. Occupy Wall St are onto it. This article is essentially connected to the one above.

Ferguson uses the great phrase that the bureaucracies and regulators in America are just the employment agencies for the 1%.

I’m a social scientist, so I actually counted: about a third of all the signs that day had money and politics as their themes. It was obvious that you here at Occupy Boston and your colleagues in New York, Oakland, Chicago, and other cities have already grasped the heart of the problem of money and politics in America: that we live in a money-driven political system that works pretty well for the 1%, but no one else.

Firstly, the rot is very deep. In short pieces for the Financial Times, theWashington Spectator, and some scholarly work, I’ve focused attention on the way both parties in Congress now “post prices” for committee slots, chair positions, and leadership posts. Congress today is all too reminiscent of Best Buy or Target: You want a committee slot or an important leadership post, you buy it. The result is a kind of arms race in contributions, which just gets worse over time. Most Americans don’t know this. When they learn it, they usually are disgusted.

7. Pre-emptive strike? - The Telegraph reports on the release of the IAEA report out today that some are saying could be used as the reason for an Israeli first strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

As if there aren't enough problems in the global political scene at the moment.

Here's The Telegraph:

Its report will disclose that North Korea has provided mathematical formulas and codes involved in designing a nuclear device and that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the "father" of Pakistan's atom bomb, has handed over plans for a neutron initiator, a key element in a bomb.

It will also say that the Iranians were aided for at least five years by a former Soviet scientist, alleged by The Washington Post to be Vyacheslav Danilenko. He was allegedly contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research Centre, a facility linked to its nuclear programme. There is no evidence that Moscow knew.

According to intelligence sources and documents provided by the Iranians, he helped to design a so-called R265 generator, a high-explosive device used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction. The West also believes that Tehran has a blueprint for a nuclear device small enough to fit into a warhead, and has completed a steel container the size of a double decker bus in which the high-explosive element of such a device could be tested.

8. EFSF already stuffed - Elizabeth Pfeuti reports at efinancialnews that fund managers say the much touted 'Big Bazooka' EFSF fund is already dead in the water.

An issue of 3 billion euros by the fund to help bail out Ireland overnight failed to raise the necessary amount.

So far there has been little support for the EFSF strategy from long-only bond investors. A note from Swiss private bank Lombard Odier last week typified market sentiment: “An expanded EFSF looks like over-indebted eurozone sovereigns lending money to themselves to insure against losses on their own debt and improve their perceived solvency.”

David Lloyd, head of institutional portfolio management, who leads sovereign debt funds at M&G Investments, one of the UK’s largest bond investors, said: “What the politicians seem to be suggesting is creating a huge off-balance sheet SPV [special purpose vehicle], with the EFSF taking on the equity. We’ve seen that model go wrong before.”

Duncan Martin, partner at the Boston Consulting Group, said: “It looks like a synthetic mezzanine collateralised bond obligation.

Christian Schwarz, credit strategist at Credit Suisse said: “To resolve the crisis we do not need a new vehicle that uses leverage and complicated tranching – that would be just fighting debt with debt. We need a buyer of last resort – this can only be the ECB – it has unlimited money to throw at the problem – the EFSF is limited and would not have the same credibility.”

9. 'Dear ECB, please save us' - Here's the guts of it. The rest of Europe (except the Germans) want the European Central Bank to intervene to print money to buy toxic Italian, Spanish and Portugese bonds, The Guardian reports.

No wonder the price of gold is at a record high in euro terms.

Germany has come under heavy pressure from its EU partners to abandon its veto on a huge rescue operation by the European Central Bank to prevent the eurozone from falling apart and the world from sliding into renewed recession.

With the eurozone's main €440bn bailout fund in tatters, it has emerged that the ECB has been forced to intervene at an increased rate by buying up more and more distressed government bonds. Figures released on Monday showed it bought €9.5bn last week – or more than twice as much as a week earlier (€4bn).

The eurozone's 17 finance ministers began crisis talks in Brussels on Monday night "to stop the rot" with Italian bond yields – the country's cost of borrowing – hitting a new peak of 6.69%, threatening to crash the eurosystem, and political leaders from virtually all countries outside Germany lining up to demand full-scale ECB intervention. Bond yields of 7% would be seen by the markets as a trigger for the IMF to intervene as it did when Irish borrowing costs reached a similar level last year.

10. Totally Jon Stewart on the 7 billionth person

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23 Comments

FYI thanks to Vanderlei via email

monbiot in the guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/07/one-per-cent-wealth-destroyers

"I am now going to bombard you with figures. I'm sorry about that, but these numbers need to be tattooed on our minds. Between 1947 and 1979, productivity in the US rose by 119%, while the income of the bottom fifth of the population rose by 122%. But from 1979 to 2009, productivity rose by 80%, while the income of the bottom fifth fell by 4%. In roughly the same period, the income of the top 1% rose by 270%."

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Moral of the story : Be in the top 1 % ! ....

... crikey , Bernard , you overlook the bleeding obvious again .... where's me gooey-tatooey guns , hand over your brain bud , I'll etch it in there , for you ...

...  " have an income in the top 1 % " .....

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Great article. It's Evolution at work:

"In a study published by the journal Psychology, Crime and Law, Belinda Board and Katarina Fritzon tested 39 senior managers and chief executives from leading British businesses. They compared the results to the same tests on patients at Broadmoor special hospital, where people who have been convicted of serious crimes are incarcerated. On certain indicators of psychopathy, the bosses's scores either matched or exceeded those of the patients. In fact, on these criteria, they beat even the subset of patients who had been diagnosed with psychopathic personality disorders."

"In their book   Snakes in Suits, Paul Babiak and Robert Hare   point out that as the old corporate bureaucracies have been replaced by flexible, ever-changing structures, and as team players are deemed less valuable than competitive risk-takers, psychopathic traits are more likely to be selected and rewarded. Reading their work, it seems to me that if you have psychopathic tendencies and are born to a poor family, you're likely to go to prison. If you have psychopathic tendencies and are born to a rich family, you're likely to go to business school."

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And FYI British MPs want more control over the Bank of England's money printers...

Backbench MPs have demanded the right to veto the appointment ofBank of England governors as part of a radical reform of the way Threadneedle Street is run.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/08/mps-demand-power-to-veto-bank-of-england-chief?CMP=twt_fd

cheers

Bernard

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Can we call it issuing debt now please, printing money makes it sound free.

Cheers

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I'm not entirely sure that the ECB does have "unlimited money to throw at the problem".

An unlimited capacity to print money maybe - but that is not the same thing...

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Unlimited capacity to issue debt, still has to be repaid, which is possibly the most riculous part of that can kicking solution.

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And on that note, they are already doing it with impunity.  The ECB has been buyer of last resort for a while, even in the face of a recent vote by the German parliment, that allowed the EFSF on the condition that the ECB stopped buying Govt bonds.

I'm not sure if people are waiting to a huge convoy of trucks parked outside the ECB, before they believe the "money printing" is happening.  The modern version is just binary code, and you will never see it.  You may hear about it, it sounds like this "The ECB just purchased XXX worth of XXX bonds."  Thats what debt issuance or "money printing" is.  The creation of money from thin air, by a central bank.  

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Ghost Dog...was that the movie about the dude with the pigeons up on the roof...?  

not one of his better ones....me  thinks...?

 Hmmmmmm..back to the hustings.......

We  must now vote Gr...We must now vote Grr.... We must now vote Grrrrrrrrrrrr....I just can't get the word out.....maybe I'm not quite ready...I dunno..?

We must vote Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreen...uh! there did it ! ....hand me a bucket and spade, I'm getting involved.

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Ghost Dog is a great movie. 

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I just didn't quite connect with it bleep.........I thought he was a bit hammy in it to boot...but my son really liked it so...there you go.....maybe I'll dig it out for another look... ...I know he's got it.

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Whats not to like about  a samurai gangster movie?

The only thing it lacked was zombies. ;)

And the G word is probably the way to go this time round....

They seem harmless enough. *shrugs*

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Hamilton is a disaster..the v8's being the tip of the iceburg.  The finances need a right old doing over by the serious fraud office.  The citizens of Hamilton have no faith in those in charge of the purse strings - a full investigation is required....

will they launch a proper investigation...prob not..far better to throw our resources into chasing petty crims...white collar boys are too much like one of us!!

i imagine Dunedin not too far away with such blow up either....how the eck did they ever think they could fund that stadium...dah

anything for the God of sport..

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Just like Rome rastus!! Give the plebs something unimportant to focus on.

Dunedin is buggered, but the old boys will now get a chance to take over some of the choice DCC Holdings assets. Forests, Delta, Port etc.. 

Wonder if Forsyth Barr gets to advise on the sale?

They used Delta a local public power lines company to purchase 100 sections in Jacks Point bailing out some of the blue bloods - Kerr & Darby.

But hay, what a stadium in a city where all you hear about is business' leaving - sealord, mainland cheese, cottonsoft, silver fern farms burnside, F&P appliances... and the council planning a rates rise.

Atleast the sacred cow the University can't move - or can it?

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France has unveiled the toughest austerity measures since World War Two despite the looming danger of a double-dip recession, vowing to slash borrowing by €65bn over the next five years in a last-ditch effort to save the country's AAA rating. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8875444/France-cuts-…  
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As if Bonds or yeilds are responsible for crashing the system.  The system is a crash waiting to happen.  It's unsustainable, and this is how it ends.  Sure put it off for a few more years, play the same game again in 2014.  Of into eternity, the same old battle, financial engineering, and sophistication, outrunning baisic maths.  The ECB cannot print money it can only issue debt.

The only possible way out is default, and that is only can kicking for another 20 years at best.  Grow up, the system is systemicaly defunct, the rich trying to make money out of money.  It doesn't work in reality, you can pretend it works, and get away with for a period of time, but in the end money has no value, it is only a measure.

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2 or 3 years ago it was Italy as the end game all along.....their bonds are now 6.5% and climbing expotentially.....no one in the USA will lend into the EU (not that the US is in any better state)....I think its now over myself......just watch that Italian rate...7 then 8%.....if it follows the trend its mere weeks off...wonder if it (the ponzi scheme) will survive til after xmas....

regards

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Agree, things are getting ugly, and now the Chinese bubble seems to be popping.
Bernard might yet have the last laugh with his predictions

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yeah..I find the for and against property debates amusing..don't engage in them, however I do believe bernards 30% drop is on the money..timing may be a bit off...and maybe 30% ++

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As far as most of Auckland's property prices go, the predicted timing was correct, but the direction and the magnitude of the change were not :-)

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I agree with Jon Stewart .... FUBLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEPPPPPPP....

Stop it now you're scaring me... especilly you skudiv!

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The V8's were a financial disaster for Hamilton. Many other cities around the world leap into Formula 1 with the same reckless abandon. Melbourne loses A$50 million per year, every year on F1. The answer is to run the races on established race tracks like Hampton Downes.

I am in favour of some Govt spending on sport. The Rugby World Cup was a bargain. 6 weeks of entertainment, a lot of improved infrastructure and world wide coverage. The GST take alone would have covered half of it. Not to mention the feel good factor.

The Aussies generally get it right. You have to spend some money to make money. What a boring country it would be if we didn't host anything. I don't want to commute to Aussie to see all the top sports people all the time.

There is so much tax wasted on lots of things that $40 mill for the world cup is a drop in the bucket.

 

 

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“Institutional funding has a three-year average life, so European banks need to generate more than $800 billion each month to fund maturing institutional borrowings. This is, in Mr. Sarkozy’s words, unsustainable. And the markets are saying so. The CDS market for European banks is back at or above the peak levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. While Mr. Sarkozy does not come out and say it, TCS will – the likely future for European banks is Dexia SA, which was nationalized by France and Belgium when it ran aground a couple of weeks ago.”

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article31438.html

Meanwhile, the banks are dumping sov bonds at a loss.....what does that tell you!( bloomberg lead)

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