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Monday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: European voters 'as mad as hell' with the bond market vigilantes and their political mates; Australia 'set for the mother of all hard landings'; A homeless generation; Sacha Baron Cohen; Dilbert

Monday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: European voters 'as mad as hell' with the bond market vigilantes and their political mates; Australia 'set for the mother of all hard landings'; A homeless generation; Sacha Baron Cohen; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 11 am in association with NZ Mint.

I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email tobernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read today is #2 on the risks of an Australian hard landing.

1. 'I'm mad as hell and I'm not taking this anymore' - This is how the world's biggest bond investor, PIMCO CEO Mohamed El Irian, characterised the various voter revolts  in Europe against the austerity policies favoured by bond market vigilantes over the weekend.

He describes this as a 'complication'.

He hopes this rejection will encourage politicians to take decisive action, although his own warnings about fractured electorates suggest this is unlikely.

El Irian, who's a pretty savvy commentator on these things, also says it will trigger short term volatility.

We've already seen that with the New Zealand dollar and local wholesale interest rates dropping sharply. Here's El Irian's view via CNBC:

Simply put, this translates into more fragmented European politics, at least in the short run. A politically more disparate Europe will find it even more challenging to reach common ground on a range of important issues.

Do not expect the sudden appearance of the type of decisive leadership that is needed at the national level to overcome long-standing impediments to growth, jobs and financial stability. And look for more fragmented regional interactions as cross-border coordination and collaboration become an even greater nightmare.

Markets will likely price in a larger risk premium following Sunday’s election outcomes – on account of political uncertainty and the related range of specific risk factors, including greater concerns about creditworthiness and eurozone exit. This speaks, first and foremost, to the spreads of certain European sovereigns, with negative spillover effects on equities and other risk assets.

2. 'The mother of all hard landings' - Societe Generale Uber bear Albert Edwards reckons in this CNBC piece the Australian economy is set for the mother of all hard landings.

“(In Australia) We see a credit bubble built on a commodity bull market based on a much bigger Chinese credit bubble,” Edwards said in a report. “Of all the bubbles I have seen over the last 30 years in this industry, this one is even more obvious.”

3. 'Japan's corporate zombies' - Hugh Hendry reckons in this CNBC piece the the Global Financial Crisis is set to spread to China and Japan.

Hendry, who runs Eclectica Asset Management, which has around $700 million in assets, said in his first investor letter of great length since the winter of 2010 that he was "more pessimistic on Chinese growth than ever."

"This makes us bearish on most Asian stocks, bearish on industrial commodity prices, interested in some U.S. stocks, a seller of high variance equities and deeply concerned that Japan could become the focal point of the next global leg down," the manager said in the April-dated letter obtained by Reuters.

Hendry said in the letter that some Japanese companies are "corporate zombies" which will sooner rather than later fall prey to over exposure to Chinese exports, high leverage and opaque and bloated balance sheets. "It is hard to escape the impression that Japan's blue-chip companies are teetering on the brink of extinction," he wrote.

At the heart of Hendry's concerns about China lies his belief Beijing has presided over a massive property bubble while allowing government debts to grow too large.

4. Generational angst - Here's Eva Wiseman writing in The Guardian about the obscene cost of apartments to buy or rent in London, even in the poorest areas.

In my borough, Tower Hamlets (one of the poorest areas in the UK), the charity Shelter calculates that the annual earnings a tenant needs to make renting a flat affordable are £67,669. It's a figure I find difficult to read out loud without lisping, let alone conceive of earning myself. It's not achievable – in fact, it makes me feel like I'm going a bit mad. And it highlights the ever-lurking threat of homelessness – that slow slide over a year from being made redundant, to being priced out of your shared flat, to carrying your rucksack between friends' futons, and then, after a clipped conversation in their little blue kitchen, sitting on a bench at dawn with nowhere to go.

So what happens now? What happens to a generation living with the quiet and dreadful realisation that we might only be capable of buying a flat if our parents or grandparents die? A generation holding its breath when they see their fathers slip on ice, sliding more fried toast on to their mothers' breakfast plate. The awful coming-to as they adjust their grandma's three-bar fire. Will we be here hunched over our computers in 20 years' time, addicted to the property porn that we'll never be able to afford?

5. Please be nice to us - South Africa's central bank governor Gill Marcus, has written a piece in the FT complaining about all the money printing going on in the developed world and how it's not fair on smaller developing and commodity-linked currencies such as South Africa's (and ours by the way)

She muses about capital controls and currency intervention, but ultimately just says she hopes the the money printers will be nicer in future to countries like South Africa.

I reckon the only reaction that is sensible is currency intervention and capital controls.

Allowing exchange rates to adjust to global pressures provides some cushion in the event of capital flow volatility, but this is only partial. Smaller economies, particularly those with relatively well-developed and open financial markets, bear a disproportionate share of the burden of advanced economy spillovers.

Some see the solution as tightened currency and trade controls. This can only lead to an intensification of trade and currency wars, which is not in the longer-term interests of the global economy. But too often the discussion relating to how the world returns to sustainable growth is only about the large economies. Greater consideration must be given to the implications of policy choices on smaller economies.

6. Keep an eye on India - The New York Times points out a slowdown in the Indian economy is hurting the poorest the hardest. HT David.

If the slower rate continues or worsens, many millions of Indians, for another generation, will fail to rise above extreme penury and want. The problems of the euro zone are a pittance by comparison.

China commands more attention, but Scott B. Sumner, the Bentley College economist, has pointed out it is India that is likely to end up as the world’s largest economy by the next century. China’s population is likely to peak relatively soon while India’s will continue to grow, so under even modestly optimistic projections the Indian economy will be No. 1 in terms of total size.

India also is a potential force for energizing the economies of Bangladesh, Nepal and, perhaps someday, Pakistan and Myanmar. The losses from a poorer India go far beyond the country’s borders; furthermore, the wealthier India becomes, the stronger the allure of democracy in the region.

7. Bastions of privelege - Richard Wolin writes at The Nation about how America's increasingly costly university system is now acting as a bastion of privelege. He makes some interesting points about the GI Bill of 1944 and how it powered the growth the middle class during the 1950s and 1960s.

In retrospect, the GI Bill, as the 1944 Servicemen’s Readjustment Act is called, was one of the greatest democratizing forces in American history. Delbanco rightly remarks that the bill “brought onto campuses throughout the nation—including the most elite—students whose fathers would have once set foot there only as janitors.” Of 15 million returning veterans, just over half took advantage of the bill’s generous incentives and provisions in order to satisfy their aspirations for self-cultivation and professional advancement. By 1948 veterans counted for nearly 50 percent of all college students, thus fulfilling the promise of the land-grant public university system, mandated by Congress with the Morrill Act in 1862. Thereafter, both university life and American society were transformed by a seemingly irreversible process of democratic inclusion and upward social mobility. Most colleges and universities ceased being bastions of privilege, the exclusive preserve of a moneyed, Protestant elite. For the first time, men and women of diverse social backgrounds were afforded the opportunity to cultivate the knowledge and self-understanding necessary to surmount the oppressive constraints of class, race and gender.

The postwar project of democratic expansion is steadily being reversed, to the point where today, as Delbanco convincingly demonstrates, the college admissions process serves to reinforce the prerogatives of class and economic privilege rather than diminish them. Many qualified and aspiring students are deterred from attending college, fail to complete their degree in a timely manner, if at all, or must assume onerous levels of debt to meet the spiraling costs of an education. Among the current crop of college students, about two-thirds will be forced to borrow money for tuition, and upon graduation will owe on average nearly $34,000—twice as much as the average debt ten years ago. Americans now owe more in student loans than they do on credit cards.

9. Greeks reject bailout  - Reuters reports Greece's anti-bailout parties of the extreme left and right have done very well in elections over the weekend. It doesn't bode well for Greece's austerity measures.

"I cannot take it anymore, living as beggars in our own country. The Left Coalition can shake them up, and wake them up," said Kate Savvidou, 65, a pensioner who deserted PASOK.

Left Coalition leader Alexis Tsipras, at 37 Greece's youngest political leader, hailed a peaceful revolution and said German Chancellor Angela Merkel should understand that austerity policies had been defeated. "Greek people gave a mandate for a new dawn with solidarity and justice instead of barbaric bailout measures," he said.

In another indication of the extent of public anger, the extreme right Golden Dawn party was poised to take nearly 7 percent of the vote. This would allow such a party to enter parliament for the first time since the fall of a military dictatorship in 1974.

10. Congratulations to the people of France - Sacha Baron Cohen wishes the people of France good luck with their new President.

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24 Comments

Re 1. but isn't the point that the masses aren't interested in the European "common ground" that the PIMCO boss prefers?

 

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masses aren't interested

 

And nor are the markets that Pimco's Bill Gross has coveted of late - shunned US Treasuries and I guess even NZ Government Stock at his peril.

 

Point to note, as yields here and the US move to record lows we can only expect a demonstrably lower tax take and hence extended government deficit financing. 

 

A vicious circle will emerge which has yet to be addressed - the expected energy asset sale proceeds will diminish while bond issuance rises.

 

Other casualties are left to readers discretion.

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Every prediction by Australian economist Steve Keen since 2005 has come true: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

Australia's statistics for house prices and private debt levels mirror the US and Japanese bubbles. Once credit growth stops, the Australian economy will fall like everyone else.

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Monday's Top 10 With NZ Mint should be called "The 10 Most Negative Things we Could Find on the Internet that We Hope Come True because We're all so Sure the World is Going to Implode at Interest.co.nz"

Come on guys, a bit of balance, it's not all bad out there.

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Feel free to post the good (that is the 'sane' happenings) news links! 

 

Without including house prices are still on the rise in NZ stories, that is :-).

 

 

 

 

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This isnt a case of balance...its like jumping off a cliff and saying it hasnt hurt yet....makes no sense IMHO.

But anyway, try finding ten items that are on an equal scale of positive impact, in fact find 2.

or maybe 1?

Yeah, lets see 1 hugely positive event you can find.

regards

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Property prices are still on the up and up in Auckland?

 

Interest rates are low and will likely remain so for a while longer?

 

The EPA released it's draft approval giving Transmission Gully the go-ahead?

 

Students and graduates are gonna have to pay back faster in the future?

 

NZers will be "first in the queue" to buy back the assets they already own?

 

 

 

 

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Agreed. I recommend reading The Economist - many of Interest.co.nz's best articles are sourced from there anyway, so you might as well go straight there. If you're tired of the 1% bashing on this site like I am, too, the Wall Street Journal is also a good place to spend some time.

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Yes, the people we should be listening to post-financial crisis are the ones who didn't see it coming and were prognosticizing a rosy future of perpetually increasing asset prices.

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Here is a good news story. Like driving from Christchurch to Blenheim with a trailer in tow. No speeding. One car overtook us on the whole journey. Like having our own private road. Blast from the past to the mid 60's. Fantastic! Shame about the stuffed road surface though. Anyone in the market for some slightly used shock absorbers?

Come on - lets have some other good news stories

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Come play in personal finance instead. It's a cheerier outlook in Take Five. :)

 

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Anyone who allows emotions to cloud their appraisals, fails.

 

Facts, facts, facts, truth.

 

Nothing else is valid. There are 7 billion people in oil-fuelled overshoot on this wee planet, and we've already started down. Anyone noticed the zenith? It included Concorde and the Space Shuttle.

 

The fact that it is manifesting itself in finance isn't surprising, the fiscal system was built in the growth period. Has to adapt, but won't. The leadership honed its skill set in the growth period, have no understanding of what is hitting them, or why. Will keep attempting to re-boot.

 

Backed in the attempt by those who don't want to know.

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Anyone noticed the zenith? It included Concorde and the Space Shuttle.

Whatever pdk.

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....... we know ....... and Bernard's only been back since Thursday !

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Oh, and by the way, the world has already imploded - you just haven't felt the shock wave yet.

 

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..... ashamed to admit it , that the Gummster missed the shock wave of the world's financial  implosion too ..

 

Such a sweet 24 'c sunny day , got all the washing dried ..... supervised the 6 y.o. playing with her cobbers after school ...... read some chapters of Alain de Botton's book about Proust ....... and had a glass of chardonnay .....

 

..... wish I'd witnessed Bernard's " ending of the world " ...... feel I've wasted the day , now ..

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Don't worry Xmas present to the readership this year is a suicide pill, forecasting a drop in underlying revenue for next year however ...

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re # 4 even here in Tokyo, busy crowded Tokyo, you can buy a place fairly easily and renting is also fairly non expensive compared to salaries, mind you the Japanese have had the housing bubble well and truly pricked a longtime ago, perhaps that is what we need to dampen our housing frenzy and make things more realistic, more live-able.

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I guess that's another benefit of stangnant population growth Clover. Well I rent in South East London and I certainly don't earn £67000 and still manage to save a reasonable amount. So Eva is writing smack about people not affording to even rent here. Having said that, rent is going up but only reflects the fact that people in London are realising that "the East" is actually ok to live in - you can live 20mins from the City and not have to rent in Sloane Square or Kensington.

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... the sudden appearance of the type of decisive leadership ...

You know - like Hitler.

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sorry to add to the doom and gloom (I'd rather call it "reality") but here's a piece on the sharemarket crash on the back of the Greek political farce:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/market-set-to-open-weaker-on-us-falls/story-fn7kihpu-1226348344852

it's funny, some people in the media here seem almost surprised as to all the political ruptures occuring. Ridiculous. It was obvious months ago that there would be political fall out, which would then feedback into more economic dips.

Europe is now locked into a very nasty cycle that is going to get even uglier and will be incredibly difficult to pull out of  

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xvDYMYSi_8&feature=youtu.be
 
Please find above an edited link containing the Waimakariri District Mayor David Ayers discussing the housing crisis in Canterbury on CTV.
 
CTV are due to go digital soon!
Congratulations CTV for  doing a stellar job once again of exposing the housing crisis in Canterbury and tackling the real issues here.
Mr. Brownlee needs to step up and act quickly.
 Christchurch is being hollowed out.
How can we begin to have a recovery if our beaten down citizens are up and leaving?
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if you allow some REAL land supply vents on the fringes,  the prices for housing will come down.
Who are you protecting Gerry?
Why did Phil Heatley blank out 95% of the Christchurch housing reports recently?
How is that helpful to the recovery?
I am confused.
Speakon.
 

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n30zO0ABFqc&feature=related

It's a long watch from 2010 but well worth the time. Many aspects covered re the States can be transposed to here. If the system we operate in is broken, good news/bad news--not relevent.

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A couple of good reads here. One feature is the contrasting styles of Mark Zuckerberg and Warren Buffett.

1) The WSJ on the Facebook IPO roadshow - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023036304045773904942053596…

2) Bill Gates on the Berkshire Hathaway AGM - http://www.thegatesnotes.com/Personal/Berkshire-Hathaway-Annual-Meeting…

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