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Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Bond investors flee Southern Europe to invest in 0% interest German bunds; Germany as vays of making Greece stay in zee euro; Chinese coal imports collapse; Dilbert

Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Bond investors flee Southern Europe to invest in 0% interest German bunds; Germany as vays of making Greece stay in zee euro; Chinese coal imports collapse; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am (!)  in association with NZ Mint.

I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email tobernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read today is #9. It made me think about the nature of markets and morals.

1. All about fear   - FT reports Germany was able to issue a zero coupon two year bond last night.

This is a not-so-silent run in Europe's capital markets.

Investors are pulling their money out of Southern European bond markets, fearing the contagion from any 'Grexit'.

They are desperate to put their money where it is safe from a euro breakup and devaluation into another dodgy currency.

Investors can be sure that if the euro breaks up then the Deutsche mark would be revalued up.

So that's where you'd make your money -- a revaluation of the currency of the bond. Not from the interest, because there is no interest.

Here's the thinking:

The scale of this “flight to quality” was encapsulated on Wednesday by the sale of Germany’s first zero-coupon two-year bond, which investors snapped up at a sliver of a discount, to give it a record low yield of just 7 basis points. In other words, Berlin is paying next to nothing to issue debt. Thirty-year bond yields fell below 2 per cent for the first time.

“It’s pretty amazing,” says Nathaniel Timbrell-Whittle, co-head of European sovereign debt capital markets at BNP Paribas. “Germany is still clearly the safe haven of choice in Europe.”

2. Germany rules out common bonds - This is the real problem for Europe (apart from the euro itself).

Germany doesn't want to guarantee Southern Europe's debt.

Funny that. Except for the global economy. Which is not laughing.

Here's the FT:

“There is no way of introducing them under the current [EU] treaties. Indeed, there is an explicit ban on them,” one senior German official said, adding Berlin would not drop its opposition in the foreseeable future. “That’s a firm conviction which will not change in June.”

3. Vee haf vays of making you stay in zee euro - Here's Ambrose Evans Pritchard at The Telegraph talking about the latest German tactics to bully Greece into staying in the euro.

What are these people thinking?

Do they want to blow up the financial world?

The German financial daily Handelsblatt said the Bundesbank was "holding a gun to Greece's head", hammering home the message that Germany will not submit to blackmail from populist politicians in Athens.

Berlin also leaked news that their member on the European Central Bank board, Jürg Asmussen, is to head an ECB taskforce to handle the Greek crisis.

There was confusion in Brussels over leaks that EMU finance ministry officials had agreed in a meeting on Monday – allegedly in the name of Eurogroup executives – that each state should draw up a national plan to cope with a Greek exit.

4.  China to fast track approvals for infrastructure - China's government seems to be grinding the gearbox to get the economy going again. The gearshift may not be as smooth as last time though.

Here's Reuters:

China will fast track approvals for infrastructure investment to combat a slowdown in the economy, a state-backed newspaper reported on Tuesday, showing how Premier Wen Jiabao's call for policies to support growth is being put into action.

The pace of investment in the likes of roads, bridges and real estate is running at its weakest in nearly a decade, April data showed, suggesting the world's second-biggest economy is heading for a sixth straight quarter of slowing growth.

5. Iron Ore and coal deferrals - China has a lot of work to do to get things going again. 

Here's more from the FT on coal importers deferring and defaulting on orders.

Miswin Mahesh, coal analyst at Barclays in London, said that the “rate of supply growth across the Atlantic and Pacific basins continues to outpace the appetite for coal”. US coal miners had boosted their exports after domestic demand plunged due to strong competition in the utilities sector from cheap natural gas on the back of the shale revolution. The share of electricity generated by burning coal in the US has fallen to a near 35-year low, according to the US Department of Energy.

The drop in iron ore, the main commodity used in steelmaking, and thermal coal prices, used to fire power stations, will hurt blue-chip miners including BHP Billiton, Vale of Brazil, Rio Tinto, Xstrata and Anglo American.

6. De euroisation chart - FTAlphaville points here to a flood of funds out of Italy.

The de-euroisation continues and is, in Italy at least, getting faster… these charts show foreigners running away from Italian liabilities in March at their fastest pace ever, and illustrate just how quickly the LTRO sheen has faded.

Italy’s March balance of payments, out on Monday, showed its biggest ever decline in portfolio liabilities and while Italian repatriation flows show no consistent sign of slowing they are not keeping up with the foreign pull-out from Italian portfolio instruments.

7. Panorama and Luxembourg - The BBC's Panorama documentary team have done a piece on how Luxembourg is used to avoid paying an awful lot of tax in many real countries.

Secret documents obtained by the programme reveal how major UK-based firms cut secret tax deals with authorities in Luxembourg to avoid paying corporation tax in Britain.

The confidential tax agreements, that Panorama has looked at, were all devised by big four accountancy firm, PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

The companies involved include pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and media company Northern and Shell, owned by Richard Desmond.

In the case of GSK, the UK-headquartered firm set up a new company in the tiny European tax haven of Luxembourg in 2009.

In 2010, the subsidiary lent £6.34bn to a GSK company in the UK. In return, the UK company paid nearly £124m in interest back to the Luxembourg subsidiary - effectively removing that money from the UK company's taxable profits – so it was no longer available to tax in the UK at 28%.

8. A bubble made of Chinese cement - Those worried about a hard landing in China will not like the look of this chart highlighted by Zerohedge.

9. How markets crowd out morals - Here's Michael J Mandel at Boston.net with a fascinating musing on the idea of using markets to change all sorts of social behaviour.

This economistic view of virtue fuels the faith in markets and propels their reach into places they don’t belong. But the metaphor is misleading. Altruism, generosity, solidarity, and civic spirit are not like commodities that are depleted with use. They are more like muscles that grow stronger with exercise. One of the defects of a market-driven society is that it lets these virtues languish. To renew our public life we need to exercise them more strenuously.

10. Totally Jon Stewart on Greece - This is from last year, but is still funny and interesting.

 

 

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32 Comments

Too good not to link....Latest Social Networking Fad

 

Oh, plus arable land and gold.  Tick, tick.

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So the hardworking and productive Germans won't send wads of money to the tax evading, living high off borrowed money, couldn't be bothered, Greeks.

Apparently this is 'holding a gun to their heads'  (greeks heads).   No it isn't.

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The Germans gleefully loaned them all that cash so they could buy lots of German made goodies. And the Germans used all sorts of other economic tricks to make sure they stayed the manufacturing/exporting power house of Europe.

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Goldman Sachs cooked the books and got Greece into the EU (reaping billions in fees) and the German and French banks were happy to lend to them implicitly backed by their governments so they'd buy German and French exports (including billions in unnecessary weapons). Germany deserves everything it gets. For every irresponsible borrower there's an equally irresponsible lender.

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Ah.  I see.  The former German plan about real estate was thwarted in the 1940s.  So with irrepressible glee they have now taken the financial domination route.  Those despicable Huns. 

Don't mention the war.  (apologies to Basil)

Seriously.  Is it not being an irresponsible lender to keep feeding the addiction.

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The German's have been able to dominate Europe more effectively financially than via the Wehrmacht. So too the Japanese in SE Asia and the US in Central America and Vietnam.

Its not really a German issue per se although they are particularly self righteous about their fiscal responsibility. Its more a financial sector problem. Greed takes over and instead of being satisfied with a "moderate" income stream they pump it for all its worth until it blows up in their faces, cry armageddon and mummy government courtesy of the taxpayer bails them out. The German 99% are going to get raped along with the Greek 99% although they will still be able to afford food and shelter.

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...... let's cut to the chase : The grand experiment of European unification has backfired badly . And isn't David Cameron enjoying it , lording over the Eurozone nations whom  have no national currency , no way to sort their own mess out ......

 

Send George Soros a Peerage , Davey boy ....... he's the greatest saviour of  Britain since Winston Churchill ...... ( who also thwarted the treacherous Hun ! )

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Yep all grand schemes are doomed to failure. Economic bad times bring all those old animosities bubbling to the surface. If things get bad enough Europe will tear itself apart. Fortunately none of them have the military capacity to enforce any form of economic warfare. Might be the end of the WTO and the neo liberal experiment though when Europe becomes protectionist 

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The EU is protectionist , already ..... their taxpayers have been subsidising inefficient farmers for 40 years ......

 

..... bring back the freely floating Francs , Drachma and the beloved Deutschmark .......

 

Get back to individual currencies ;  bring back democracy to the people ( and away from the Eurocrats ) ;  return the pound of British sausage ...... and shove the 454 grams of " emulsified meat products " where the sun don't shine !

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So the position is:

Germans lend money to Greeks.  Bad Germans

Germans don't lend money to Greeks.  Bad Germans

I see.

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No ! ....... the situation was German banks happily lending cheap money to the Greeks , who splurged it on massive entitlement packages , and on luxury German cars ........

 

...... now the situation is the Germans' are demanding their pound of flesh out of the Greeks , because the Greeks were profligate ......

 

The pusher can't expect the addict to go cold turkey suddenly , and pay the debt back ......

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You missed the bombs........

Question: In the period 2006-2010 which country was Germany’s largest market for munitions?

Answer: Greece, which accounted for 15% of total German arms sales.

Question: In the same period, what country was France’s largest arms export market in Europe (third
largest overall)?

Answer: Greece

https://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php?topic=10817.0

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Didn't the snow white greeks tell accounting lies about the state of their finances to get into the Euro - see this Telegraph article and the 2004 date in their timeline:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8580720/Timeline-of-a-crisis-how-Greeces-tragedy-unfolded.html

 

It was simple fraud really.

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Greece had problems in 2002 when Goldman with a nod and wink from the EU cooked the books to qualify them for EU entry. Germans have been interfering in Greece since WW2, first by invasion and then through NATO to prevent any form of socialist govt (NATO and US supported military junta in 1960's-70's)  I doubt the Greek's are any more corrupt or feckless than anybody else given the same recent history

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I guess China is beginning to realise that the heap they are standing on top of is rapidly crumbling underneath them. Wonder if they will then realise that the living is actually a whole lot better on the flat where the grass grows

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With the economy slowing and the usual "spend like no tomorrow" stimulus tactics again, China is now going to see their economy fall on concrete......(given their per capita usage of such material, would it be suprising ?)

 

As regards Wall Street and Facebook, it seems JP Morgan loss from its Whalw is now going to be as high as 7 Billion....Lets see if it can break Facebook record for Loss of the Year Award...... 

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Dont forget the losses they made on the Facebook share they bought when they were trying to support the price just after they listed.

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facebook, class actions begin...so banks billions down and now they face litigation costs and damages as well....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/6975507/Facebook-sued-by-sharehol…

regards

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It's Buget Day Bernard...! yay !! are you excited...? well are you...?

Is Billybob gonna stick it to those batch owning ,trust concealing, tax avoiding brothers of a another Mother....?

Will the newfound will to collect unpaid taxes be set in stone or come with handy directions to the new loopholes....?

Will GST become the question on the table toward years end.....?( when will they ever learn The Minister giveth..The Minister taketh away..)

Will the wagon be rehitched  to the New best Freinds horses again (weary / wary though they look) ...?

Will there be cyber scones with fresh cream for the ratings agencies......lick, lick.

Let me know when he's done would you....I've  a new Superman comic to fill my daily Fantasy needs. 

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Bernard and Alex are in the budget lock up until 2pm.

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...... the most boring finance minister in the world , locked up with our resident gloomster par excellence ...... this should end well ......

 

Take your Gameboy & some sudoku puzzles , Alex !

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Be still my beating heart - LOL.

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Keep an eye out, Bernard, for the separate-but-linked aspects of the B:

- yes, we will need to keep borrowing a billion a month to keep beneficiaries under riot temperature

- yes - we will welcome more well-heeled companies and individuals in to our fair land

 

Which translates to, when pasted back together:  Paying back in hard assets rather than boring old fiat bits and bytes.

 

Same deal as the NoKo/Pakistan/Iran/Libya/Syria effort at nuc-u-lar constructions of the missilic kind:  keep all the bits separate, and they are innocuous.  Especially to the eyes of dopey UN apparatchiks tasked with Holding Committee Meetings Until They're All Dead.

Put 'em, together - Boom.

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Kiesel is spot on.  Shilling is a silly old coot who has got it plain wrong.

 

It doesn't matter if there is huge inventory in places people don't want to live or in the types of properties people don't want to live in.  The inventory of quality and well located properties is all that is relevant.

 

NZ is the same.  There's probably 100,000+ vacant residential sections in NZ but with the majority in holiday spots, rural locations and less desirable centres it does nothing to affect prices where people want to live.

 

The key to creating housing affordability is not just creating cheap sections.  It is about creating environments where people want to live.  Take Pegasus in ChCh (an abject failure) but why?  It's too far out, sections are too small, commercial and focal activities never eventuated, and it was overpriced.  Four problems - not just one.  Jacks Point at Queenstown is the same. 

 

Fixing just the pricing doesn't achieve enough.

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Hugh, you seem overly sensitive to comments about old fools!

 

I am far more convinced by Warren Buffet (who actually made money, not just predictions!) who believes that NOW is the time to re-enter the US residential property market.  PIMCO, Kiesel and El Erian seem to be on the same wavelength.

 

Remember Shilling has predicted this downturn for over a year and the market has really just been bouncing along the bottom (+/- 3%) since 2009.

 

Just because someone got something right in the past doesn't mean they are an oracle for the future.  Shilling is spouting nonsense about housing return to long term averages - of course those long term averages are changing goal posts dependent on where prices go and how you measure them.

 

Shilling also fails to understand that quality and location are factors in house prices.  It does not matter if there are 50 million houses on the market that people don't want!  The price for quality and location is not driven by overall supply, it is driven by supply of that product only.  An inventory of 4m houses which are mainly foreclosures is hardly an inventory at all if most of those homes are in various states of dereliction and the current sale price of quality homes is below the cost of upgrading the old ones. 

 

Therefore there is only one outcome - the price of quality homes increases.  As the majority of homes not for sale are quality homes and the majority that are for sale are foreclosures in a state of dereliction then it is perfectly conceivable that prices of quality homes rise while millions of homes still sit in foreclosure.

 

The problem with Wall St analysts is that they can't differentiate between types of property.  To them they are all like stock - all identical without variation.  Reality isn't that simple with property - as they learned with CDO's.  Prices conceivably may fall further but when Buffet and PIMCO are bulls I would place my bets with them rather than an old hack just looking at numbers rather than the whole picture (sounds like someone I know???).

 

But don't worry Hugh you are in salubrious company, I also think Alan Greenspan is a silly old coot (for bringning the US economy to its knees)!

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Greenspan - the poster boy for arguments in favour of lowering the retirement age.

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Chris is enjoying his stirr today however he has a point... the property market and micro markets through the States are so diverse that an aggregation is means very little.

I have property in the US and some of the best performing have been in States where the overal stats are awful. You will find in Southern Califonia districts that are as hot as Auckland central. Looking at the Califonian economy in general.... at the macro level you would never believe it...

 

 

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I don't agree with that, plenty of areas in the USA took a haircut which are still 'nice places' to live.

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yes but that is too general, the lower end of the top tier - quality stock and location continues to go up as the general economic effects have had no influence to their wealth and ability to buy.

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Shilling is probably right, he's been very close to the mark so far.....and given the continuing and worsening stress the USA is under I think -20% is very realistic....

That also applies to NZ, 50% off the current prices seems quite probable.

The problem I have with you thinking that only the good areas matter is the amount of debt now tied up in the areas you think doesnt matter is significant.  I suspect this negative effect dwarfs the positive you suggest by a lot. This is what happened in the USA, the "sub-prime" market collapsed the rest....

Also want to live and have to live are different....I'd love to live somewhere like say Nelson or Blenheim say....I cant do that, no work....

I look at areas when I travel, what strikes me is there are nice houses out there but they are priced as if they were in Wellington....$400~500k is typical....what I dont see is the local economy to justify those prices....and indeed when a house bought for $500k is now only seeing $360k as the best offer, that is an eyebrow lifter.........

I agree on your cheap sections bit though......I like to live in an older suburb because of all the amenities that newer dont have unless you get in a car.......they lack community....something Hugh just cant understand I suspect.

regards

 

 

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