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Bernard's Top 10: Japan's umpteenth stimulus package; Calls for higher minimum wages; China tightening monetary policy; A US$10 bln freedom ship; Dilbert

Bernard's Top 10: Japan's umpteenth stimulus package; Calls for higher minimum wages; China tightening monetary policy; A US$10 bln freedom ship; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am. As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read today is #9 on how China is tightening its monetary policy, in a wonky sort of way.

1. Yet another Japanese stimulus plan - Japan is doubling its money supply in less than two years to try to create inflation.

It has been building 'bridges to nowhere' for decades in an attempt to try to stimulate an economy beset by the bursting of an epic stock market and property bubble, along with a rapidly ageing population.

It may have worked to avoid complete catrastrophe and some say it actually helped build per capita real GDP, after the impact of population decline and falling prices.

Whatever the case, Japan is now committed boots and all to money printing and deficit spending to try to get things going.

It is having all sorts of effects. One is a devaluation of the yen and the subsequent ability of Japanese car exporters to cut prices in export markets to get demand going.

Anyone looking at the motoring sections of the papers lately can't fail to notice the slump in new car prices in recent months, in particular from Japan, Korea and Europe. It's great for consumers.

Here's Reuters with the latest package:

2. How a T-Shirt is made - NPR's excellent Planet Money programme has done an amazing thing. It has gone right through the chain of production and distribution for a T-Shirt to better understand how the new globalised system of making and selling stuff actually works. 

3. Hong Kong's strange shortage of men - The Atlantic reports on the shortage of men in Hong Kong, which is the direct opposite of what happens on the Mainland.

The reasons are interesting. 

“There are several reasons,” says Dr. Suzanne Choi, a researcher in gender studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “Hong Kong women are highly qualified and independent, but the marriage norm of men marrying down and women marrying up has remained largely intact. So some men may be unable to find a local wife due to their comparative socioeconomic disadvantages. But some may also want to find a wife with lower qualifications and earning power anyway, so they can conform to social expectations. The increase in regional economic integration has resulted in a large number of Hong Kong men working in South China so they actually have far more opportunities to meet mainland women than ever before.”

Despite the shortage of eligible partners, women in Hong Kong are renowned for being selective, but their reasons for seeking men with higher earning power are also linked to the growing financial pressure on couples.

4. A Freedom ship - Where will the hyper-rich to avoid the grumpy, teeming masses and their peskily high tax rates?

How about a floating hotel that is a 25 storey ship with a one mile long runway on the roof, which is long enough for private planes.

Sigh.

Here's the International Business Times with the article.

"The Freedom Ship community has not been conceived as a tax haven. While the community itself will levy no taxes, citizens of countries such as the US would not realise any income tax savings by residing in or running businesses in the community, at least at the federal level, since American citizens are taxed on their worldwide income."

However the company does concede that residents of other countries "may realise tax savings by residing in or running businesses in the Freedom Ship Community".

5. Our different paths - Australia was quick to criticise China over its extension of an air defence zone over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the seas between China and Japan last week.

That triggered an immediate rebuke to Australia from China, who said it would damage relations.

John Key, meanwhile, was much more careful this week, saying simply that China and Japan needed to sort it out diplomatically. It seems (see cartoon below) the Brits are also trying to play nice with China. The poor old Dalai Lama will be a private tourist for the rest of his life.

Here's the Guardian on China's response to Australia:

China's foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang was quoted by AFP as replying: "Australia's irresponsible statements on the East Sea air defence identification zone are completely mistaken. China cannot accept them.” He called on Australia to "immediately correct its mistake, so as to avoid damaging China-Australia relations”.

6. Raise the minimum wage - Paul Krugman has written a good piece calling for a big increase in America's minimum wage. The chart for real retail wages is shocking.

Although the national minimum wage was raised a few years ago, it’s still very low by historical standards, having consistently lagged behind both inflation and average wage levels. Who gets paid this low minimum? By and large, it’s the man or woman behind the cash register: almost 60 percent of U.S. minimum-wage workers are in either food service or sales. This means, by the way, that one argument often invoked against any attempt to raise wages — the threat of foreign competition — won’t wash here: Americans won’t drive to China to pick up their burgers and fries.

Still, even if international competition isn’t an issue, can we really help workers simply by legislating a higher wage? Doesn’t that violate the law of supply and demand? Won’t the market gods smite us with their invisible hand? The answer is that we have a lot of evidence on what happens when you raise the minimum wage. And the evidence is overwhelmingly positive: hiking the minimum wage has little or no adverse effect on employment, while significantly increasing workers’ earnings.

7. And it's not just the lefties - Here's Edward Luce at the Financial Times calling for a higher minimum wage in America.

For the first time in a generation, companies such as general retailer Walmart and McDonald’s are under real pressure to pay better wages. The arguments in favour of a significantly higher US minimum wage are strong. First, it would inject a much-needed stimulus into the anaemic recovery without involving a dollar of taxpayer money. Politics makes the latter impossible.

Indeed, public spending on food stamps and long-term unemployment payouts is set to fall sharply at the start of 2014, which will undercut the recovery in US consumer demand (the lower your income, the more of it you spend).

8. China quietly tightening monetary policy - Gavyn Davies writes at an FT blog about China's quiet tightening of monetary policy in recent months and a slowdown in shadow bank lending. 

Although the PBOC’s description of monetary policy in China uses words like “prudent” and “stable”, these descriptions should be taken as relevant only to the official banking sector. Elsewhere in the system, there is no doubt that the central bank is progressively squeezing monetary conditions in order to control the growth of credit in the shadow banking sector. This squeeze shows no signs so far of slowing the rate of inflation in housing and land prices in the major cities, especially Beijing. Until this happens, the risk of a hard landing cannot be lightly dismissed.

In the recent housing bubble in the US, the Fed tightened policy progressively for several years before the housing market collapsed , and the disastrous consequences for the banking sector became fully apparent. China does have more levers at its disposal than the US authorities chose to use from 2005-08. Nevertheless, it will be a long time before we can be confident that China has avoided the hard landing that normally follows credit explosions on such a scale.

9. The password was 00000000 - It turns out the password to push the button on America's Minuteman nuclear missiles was eight zeros for a couple of decades....

And you thought 0000 as your PIN was a bad idea...

10. Australian income falling - No wonder net migration to New Zealand is improving as the net emigration to Australia dries up. 

Leith van Onselen writes at Macrobusiness about a surprise slide of 1% in real disposable income per capita in Australia over the last year. 

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14 Comments

Re Japanese stimulus ....I read a few articles by Nouriel Roubini recently  and I wonder , when you strip away all the BS , whether we are really in a deflationary economic envornment .

The only thing that is really increasing in price are Auckland houses and building materials , the latter being opportunistic pricing  due to few competitors and a dominant player .

Everything else we buy is either falling in price  , remaining in a price range , or remaining static .

Consumer durables ( Clothes , shoes )  , electronics and imported manufactures are all falling , some imported  foodstuffs are falling in price .

Dairy , pork , beef and chicken are all rigged prices , so the prices are rangebound , but lamb has fallen a lot .

 

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Huh? so you admit things are falling in price, but wonder if we are really in a deflationary environment?

um....

regards

 

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Food (food court, KFC, Fish fillet), fuel, council rates, utility, housing prices that I have over 80% of my spending on are all going up in prices, in some cases in excess of 10%.

Restaurants, Theme Parks, Movies and other groceries are going up slightly, around 2% on average.

Electronics, gadgets are falling, however they only account for less than 5% of my spending.

So, in my view, inflation is running well above 5%, which is inline with the money supply growth as published by the RBNZ.

Have fun listening to Govt. saying there's no inflation, except council rates, water bills, fuel, food, utilities, groceries, house prices, rent prices.

 

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When the Govn or RB sets the OCR it sets it on overall inflation in the economy and not how "frostwind" feels or is doing. So average inflation is different to inflation for the poor and OAPs who dont spend much on such items as communications as say the young(er). 

This should then be worrying Dr Wheeler, that he's seeing such an average yet some sectors are seeing big -ves while in others +ves. The worry to me is if some sectors collapse due to their inflationary pressures and drag the rest of our economy down.

When in a zero bound trap which the world is money supply growth doesnt matter as its not being spent.

regards

 

 

 

 

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Okay you say there is inflation , but the last commentator suggests its deflation .

Whats the reality ?

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Ironic. Japan is desperately trying to fight Deflation.

NZ is desperately "fighting inflaton" , banks & rbnz frantically trying build a case for hiking interest rates . To stop runaway inflation! Ha ha unbelievable. 

Is it 1973?  10.2 cpi inflation?

 

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Re 6&7: By far the best way to stimulate the economy without incurring yet more debt would be for corporates, particularly in US with $1T + cash pile, to increase investment (wages capex etc). But of course they use the excuse of waiting for the top line to improve, and so the stagnation cycle continues.......

 

Re10: No surprises there. Those two graph lines have to converge one way or another. 

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Why should they invest more if thjere isnt the demand?

regards

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Deflation is actually good for the average consumer (ir you and me and everybody else).

 

Japan has deflation for the past 20 years, and you don't see riots on the streets...that is because falling or stagnant prices is good for the average worker. 

 

The problem for most people is really high inflation in housing (rental and mortgage payments) and energy prices (transportation) which is negating the effects of benefits from cheaper food and clothing prices.

 

The solution is therefore not higher minimum wages, but lower housing and transportation cost. In a Globalised world, higher minimum wages just caused higher unemployment, while a lower housing and transportation cost allows a higher standard of living with the same wage. This equalised total living cost and standards overall.

 

However the above will cause asset prices to fall and hugh losses for Banks and Big Business (Oil etc etc)...so it won't happen ......

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You are utterly wrong IMHO.

Go back and think on "deflation is good".  It also means that wages fall, just with buying stuff made in say China that isnt seen in our economy these days.  So effectively we export job losses and pay cuts. In some sectors anyway, in others Kiwi's get made un-employed, or work part time, or get a lower wage.

Transportation is fossil fuel based so its going to get worse as the oil price climbs as thats how we ratuon it. So the correction has to come from elsewhere, and that has to be, housing,   ***pop***

One of the biggest things you miss is the most important thing is wealth per capita, so the more ppl there are the less natural resources there are to go around.

There is no evidence that a bit higher min wages causes higher un-employment or more importanlty that its bad for the economy ie the money not spent directly in a higher min wage gets spent via a tax rebate or WINZ support payment....so its socialise  the losses keep the profits. No thanks.

Asset prices, well there is less and less raw materials that under-writes these financial instruments of mass destruction, so the losses in a deflaionary environment will be huge, and that includes most ppls pensions and savings.

The solution is therefore less population living a simpler and less energy intense lifestyle.

regards

 

 

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#4 great idea, let the parasites leave and block them out, dont pay tax? cant land here, good riddance.

 

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Raise Minimum Wage.

In retail low wages in New Zealand are a product of our immigration policy. We are importing third world labour terms and conditions but demanding first world rents for shops. Low wages are required so that more monety can go to rent. This is the equation. Imported lablour with little or no administartive oversight is the result. Those that are willing to circumvent our labour laws are those that can pay the rents- look at our shop renst, by rights they should be falling as the internet eats their lunch. Instead we bring people in who are willing and able to pay the rents.

 

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If #6 is true then why is the cartoon in #3 happening all over the world?
IF #6 were true, why can't business happily pay their minimum workers $10/hour more and everyone will be happy?

Why?
Because #6 is a lie.

I know it's a lie because I'm already looking at being unable to pay my own wages with Fonterra's farmgate milkprice.  I've already had to tell my casual help that I can't justify what they were on (to reduce wage bill, and because micro-tracking of hours is a waste of -my-time).

And you'll note that the US figures for 60% of minimum wage folk are in food service or sales...but those numbers don't include the Mexicans and other folk on the Farm Payrolls - as farms get dispensation as critical industries in developed countries.  
    Or they get subsidies so the low prices returned by processors can be bolstered to something the business models can survive on.
    Why is it in NZ, so dependent on Argiculture, would the government attempt to destroy it's own economic base??

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#9 Regardless of the causes of Climate change we don't want to loose sight of the fact that we need to tidy up our act as far as our harmful waste substances management goes.

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