REINZ's House Price Index shows a housing market correction is now well underway

Indeed. Be quick, but only if you like the smell of horse sized FOOP.

LOL

No seriously. 

DON'T MISS OUT! 

Be quick. List now! Before interest rates rise again.

Dont be the last boomer to cash out!

But why?

It is clearly essential to unwinded policies to prevent price drops. It's what kiwis expect.

Let's form a working committee to discuss these proposals, go through consultation and enact some watered down politically convenient findings in three years time.

We aRe PuLLinG eVeRY LeVeR.

Do not worry, head of central bank Mr Orr and Prime Minister of of our country Jacinda Arddn, who is commited to support and promote house price growth will act soon as they believe in `Least Regret' policy when it comes to promote housong pyramid ponzi being only economy in NZ and must for their political survival, only they have to portray to show that they are taking meadufes to help FHB but in reality it.........

To help FHB let the economy take its own course.

To help speculstors intervine as they will fall without government and rbnz support.

Do not be surprise if rbnz relaxes certain norm to distribute easy money or some other measures by rbnz or government to pump the ponzi, in which they are experts. 

Can you please explain those policies? What I see is dilemma of who to save. Copying from my other post the conundrum faced by policy makers.

1. If interest rates are raised to fight inflation then mortgage payments would increase leading to reduction in discretionary spending to pay for increased interest component of overleveraged mortgage payment thus affecting businesses and in-turn economy.
2. Keeping interest rates low would increases inflation which affects 100% population leading to reduction in discretionary spending due to prices rise and to pay for fixed overleveraged mortgage thus affecting business and in-turn economy.
3. Turning the immigration tap on to import workers to save costs for businesses by reducing wage demand will impact those who had planned on higher wages to pay their overleveraged mortgages.

If you try to save house prices then business and earners suffers. If you try to save earners then business and house prices suffer. And if you try to save businesses then earners and house prices suffer. Unless some miracle happens and inflation disappears.

If there is reduction in house value then major impact would be on the new entrants and that I guess won't be more than 10% of population. 

The stars are aligning for something but not sure who would have to compromise.

The government has caused enough harm with crap policies the market will fall and find its feet at a much affordable level. The one thing that would be good is to stop speculators from pumping up prices.

Really.. The prices need to come down to be reasonable. The society fails when sometimes unreasonable things happen. Crime increases and social unrest gathers pace. 

We are a small country, small well connected society, we do not need unreasonable things to happen around us.

Let's not be greedy and get things knocked down a bit so everyone can prosper at the same time.

No. They (whoever that is) will be in as much control on the way down as 'they' were on the way up.

And housing policy and markets play out over years and months. So even if regulatory changes are made it would still take time to play out. 

You also assume 'they' don't want a general deflation...

If a downward trend kicks in (say 3 or 4 months in a row) all you know is that no one will want to pay more than the last person. 

“there are heaps of policies that could be unwinded to save house price from decreasing by 20%.”

Indeed.

But please do not discuss as it is reserved for later on maybe before the election next year. Let’s just let the market take a breather for now as life slowly goes back to normal.

Do you consider autumn to start on the 1st of March or 21st of March?

What does "vaporised" mean in this context?

With the price falls in December and January, further price falls in February will certainly the summer make.

You would be a very interesting subject for a sociological study.

Aggregated numbers tell only ever part of the story..

Some parts of the countries property market are still going up will some have certainly eased off.. real incomes and business activity are also moving for many.. its a relativity scenario...depending on your situation and what you planning to do.. nothing definitive..

Higher house prices shows +3% impact on GDP? What about the real GDP? If printing money and higher house prices can simply boost GDP, then why do we even need to work? RBNZ should just keep printing money every year and we just sit at home to see GDP increases 10-20% every year. Everyone is happy, simple and easy, right? ;)

Funny, I recall Michael Reddell conducting a lit review and is own analysis that showed the "wealth effect" was prime reserve bunk and only shifts wealth from some to others (and often from those who would have spent it to those who won't spend as much of it). 

Wealth effects used to justify pumping house prices ever higher. It is junk thinking like this that undoubtedly contributes to the staff exodus from the RBNZ under Orr's tenure.

The country cannot keep borrowing against the future to fund the consumption of the investor class.

The debts will come due, and the economy will suffer. But how much we suffer is up to the likes of Orr and co. 

if the fall does reach wage earners affordability, that would be a very long way down.

Short term inflation and short term rates are up but the medium and long term bond market is sayin it wont last. Growth and inflation will drop off and rates will fall once again. Credit must stay affordable and keep expanding to keep the whole world afloat. Look at the BoJ they are way ahead and where the rest of the world is heading. There was massive shock and Orr when Japan started QE and since then most advanced economies have since implemented the same "crazy" policies. Inflation will drop once the supply chain clears and by then interest rates will be higher, demand for goods will drop and so the next disinflation cycle starts. Lower rates more QE and possibly even curve control. 

If prices were to drop 30%, and wages increase 30%, this would be a 54% fall in house prices real terms.  

If prices were to drop 50% as you suggest, NZ would be in deep poop. Far too many owners would be in negative equity, this would lead to a downwards spiral that would affect everyone, (including renters)

Maybe they meant the Honda Vigor.

Media and Banking interest probably ultimately owned by Blackrock.

Also, how delusional do you have to be to think that north of $4 mil is "a really attractive price point for families." JFC. 

The alternate facts of using the year's growth to mask a considerable fall

On a million dollar dump a 10% decline is $100,000.  Excellent, that's a $100,000 a FHB does not have to save.  There is reason to cheer.  The madness and greed may actually be dissipating.  

Orr is in on the housing rort. He will pump house prices - if given the chance by the Minister of Finance. 

And the banks & One Roof will blame the CCCFA...

It's just straight out of the REINZ report. Publicly available https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2022/Residential/202201/REINZ%20Monthly%20HPI%20Report%20-%20January%202022.pdf

We have been publishing this HPI table every month for well over a year now. Usually on the day after the REINZ releases its monthly sales data.

Yes I would rather have National in charge, or even much better, Act

In your ode to the current Govt you mysteriously omitted to mention that the recent unprecedented run up in property prices happened on their watch. You suggest that we should be praising them to giving us smelling salts .. after they broke our legs. 

We would still have the problem under National or Act - but we would not have nearly the same size of the problem.

Had you figured out how to count or replicate their index to make that your conclusion?

There're more indexes for housing than I can count. Even Wheeler had formulated one.

Just a side note, the Labour shilling is cringy.

Could get interesting. 

One other thing people don't talk about is the opening of borders. When people are locked in house & country of course people will want more space and housing becomes a focus.

Once all these people are allowed to leave NZ, all of a sudden the daily focuse on our homes will become less intense..

Just a thought. 

Well put

Homes.co was started, owned and run by a couple of private entrepreneurs whose sole purpose is to attract the advertising revenue on their site from both real estate agents and their vendors.

NOTE:  Homes.co has recently been acquired by Trademe.  There is now a direct link to Homes.co on the Trademe property site.  So, you now have the option of looking up a property's estimated value on the same site i.e. Trademe.  And thus you have the choice of the slightly undervaluing (Trademe) or the stratospherically high stars-in-your-eyes value (Homes.co).   I have found that the respective value estimates of these two sites can be hundreds of thousand dollars apart for the same property.   This situation makes a mockery of these 'value-estimating sites in general.

I have found the most reliable valuation is probably the government state owned   qv.co.nz  whose values sit in between Trademe and Homes.

The other sites in this field are Oneroof.co and Realestate.co, both of which require you to 'log in' for their estimates.  This is obviously a ploy to pass on your contact details to real estate agents.

FOOPed in your pants...

You do realise he had a stellar record of predicting property crash right?

Many spent to much time at school learning Te Reo instead of time learning Te Maths.

Its called fuzzy logic in quantum mechanics and it's application in computing has the potential to change the world.

You are right when you see anything with a negative sign but wrong at the same time to consider the positive one right next to it. The same applies to the people whom you speak to who were wrong because they didn't see the negative number you had in your mind but are right when the valuators confirmed that their properties has risen in value.

There you have it, it's quantum.

There's still room for upward valuation.

Yeah the cognitive dissonance between the data and the opinion is interesting, how far the slide will go is even more interesting, I am picking a steeper fall through winter as the tipping point becomes too obvious to sweep under the carpet and people go full FONGO on it.

The only ones on edge are the dreamers.

Those who already bought doesn't care about meaningless seasonal volatility.

Until the majority of the working people of NZ can afford a home. Sound about right John? 

Not much on market in Auckland for young family under a million how long have they been in house.if they have 500k equity just sell go and rent will be able to buy back house for half price in one or two years.

And whose mistake is that? 

If people have been unintelligent in spreading themselves very thin and not thinking about the future, then pay the consequences.

There is no pill for stupidity in the market.

Hey diyguy

hope the bank is as confident in your plan when that time comes!