Sales rates at Barfoot's latest Auckland auctions ranged from zero in Papakura to 60% in Franklin

The Church also advises that people cut their cloth and find an extra 40k gross income per annum to ride out unaffordability issues from increased debt servicing costs… if they bought on his advice that interest rates would never go up from emergency levels.

I wonder the same thing. It's like listening to the Briscoes lady.

Hi nktokyo -  The posts are different. I understand you may be feeling a little worried NZ may become like your country.

There are more than 8 million empty homes in rural Japan, and local governments are selling them for as little as $500 in a bid to lure residents

https://www.insider.com/japanese-government-selling-rural-homes-cheap-a…

By the same token I remember watching a home Reno program in early 2000s, all Auckland. I was shocked at the time as some had bought houses 10 years or more previous and the current valuations were about the same. Totally dead. I also remember the series as it revolved around trying to up the value by more than a Reno spend. Every single one failed to increase despite the employing of lots of advicing experts. Most created a good look that no one could actually live in

Hi MouseHouse,

Note that in Wellington, upward price corrections have far outweighed downward price corrections over the last decade.

If you own a good 3/4brm family house in Wellington, it’s like gold. They’re often sold before they get on the open market.

TTP

Yvil - 

An example is this cedar and plaster four-bedroom home on Mt Albert Rd in Mt Roskill, Auckland on the market for $865,000, $285,000 lower than the QV estimate of $1.15m.

-24%     ( CRASH Territory )

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/128196832/more-property-listed-below-estimates-as-sellers-adjust-to-market-reality

7% interest rates this year Guaranteed .  -30% Crash in Home Prices this year is a Certainty . 

Yvil, are you saying that property prices in this small country aren’t linked? what did we observe on the way up. Aucklanders will sell their investment properties in the regions first causing prices to fall causing Auckland property prices to adjust to the competitive affordability in the regions. 



It’s the reverse halo effect. This is how property ponzi spirituality works.

Most people under 40 think it's fantastic.

Younger people being shat on, what’s new?

Pa1nter: "At this point it'd be easier if there was a "list your market correction and interest rate predictions" page on the site, save a lot of space"

Haha, great post, the comments on any housing related articles are always the most tedious

 if there is a SOLD price -- that is the value --  everything else is speculation, posturing, expectation or smoke and mirrors

Yip. That's my neck of the woods.  Lifestyle properties in saught after areas do well, everything else, not so much.  Plenty of recent examples of houses passed in at auction, listed with a price, price significantly reduced before eventual sale.  REAs I've spoken to are either worthy of an Oscar, in serous denial, or plain stupid.

Perhaps Franklin was slower to go up but has peaked a little later than Auckland proper and is now heading the same way. Papakura and Waitakere seemed to dive a little earlier.

True, but I'd say it depends on which bank blinks first. When they start with even tighter lending criteria and then the odd forced sale they then reset the market.

That's not the case.

Buyers cannot afford what sellers ask, and banks will not give that money to them.

Buyers cannot blink, most of them at least.

Sellers must decide to sell now or to wait. 

Waiting is a dangerous game now. In few months OCR will be even higher.

They might hope in a removal of LVR or in removal of interest deducibility, but still there are so many new houses coming in the market and so little new people.

Again, is stupidly dangerous anyways. 

Wise ones are just getting the best offer, taking home what is still a good amount of plus, for now, and passing the hot potato to somebody else.

Every other time the RBNZ / governments have ridden to the rescue. Lower rates, etc.

Interesting, would one then also get a tax refund for capital losses, i.e. when house values reduce, like in general tax law?

Impossible to fairly estimate unrealised capital as the policy itself directly affects this.

There can still be capital gain over the purchase price,  it is just being eroded over time. TOPs policy is to tax home owners on the difference between the council CV and the money owed to the bank on an ongoing basis, not at sale. In a rapidly falling market, homeowners would be taxed on equity that no longer exists. 

https://www.top.org.nz/property_tax

Here is the policy. It seems to be based on an assumption that property always increases in value and that first home owners somehow benefit from unrealised capital gain.

Which part of that song touched your sensitive side? 

How many houses have you got to offload? 

Talking Heads is indeed the band.

Pretty sure the had a tech limitation to only return 32k results at once. This happened back in the GFC as well.

16 bit integer only allows for +32k.

Glitch in the matrix

Yea if you look Harcourts and others are stronger. Barfoot have never impressed me. Same BS lines we are the biggest and have all the buyers haha. You mean trade me has and you answer the phone. Still, I'm not seeing this "crash" that some extreme keyboard warriors are talking of. Slow Dow 100%, falling market over the next 3 months or so.... Most likely. Either way all the crap talk on here means absolutely nothing, market will do what it always has and always will. 

You don't need to be in the industry, if you have zero bidders registered for your auction then there is no point running the auction. There must be a lot of tyre kickers about because I'm seeing auctions still running and houses without even an opening bid so there must be at least one registered bidder in the room. Very quick to fill out the bit of paper to register, you just then have to wonder how many then don't even show up.

Yes those other numbers are actually going to happen. But as a Mystic once told me, people can only handle information and revelation 1 level above themselves, and that is on a good day. Banks are selling 6% mortgages, so only some people will be able to handle the belief that 7% is going to happen. Anything above that and the people will fight you to the death. So its just 1 level at a time.