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The number of properties going to auction remains low with about a quarter selling under the hammer

Property / news
The number of properties going to auction remains low with about a quarter selling under the hammer
Auction flag outside house

Just one in four properties was sold under the hammer at the residential property auctions monitored by last week (16-22 July).

The number of properties that went under the hammer perked up slightly to 151 last week, up from 120 the previous week, but the overall sales rate was almost unchanged at 26% compared to 27% the previous week.

Of all of the auctions throughout the country monitored by, only six districts managed auction numbers in double digits. Four were in Auckland - North Shore, Waitakere, Central suburbs and Manukau, plus Waikato and Canterbury.

The overall sales rate (under the hammer) in Auckland was just 18% while Waikato and Canterbury fared better at 38% and 41% respectively.

However overall auction activity, both in terms of the number of properties being sold and the number selling under the hammer, remains at a very low level.

The table below shows the district-by-district results from all of the auctions monitored by last week, and the details of the individual properties and the results achieved, including the prices of the properties that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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It is a Cold Cold Winter.  Sales Down, Interest Rates Up.

Perfectly on Track for -30% Crash in Home Prices by December.


2022 - Did your '2022' account get banned? 


It's a nice dream but we all know that the crash won't go so fast. From all the data that we have and previous experience in house bubbles, the most likely situation is for the market to drop between 30-40% in the next 2-3 years, then stay flat for around that same time and after that slowly come back up reaching similar prices of late 2020 by 2032. 


-25-30% by May 2023 :)

Except for the occurrence of a black swan, that won’t happen by Xmas.


When Ireland was done they fell 70%.  Their median house price to income multiples were considerably lower than ours too.  

But I get it, New Zealand =/= Ireland.  


Japan also (64% each according to Wikipedia) -> and both ended up bottoming around 2.8 DTI.

But NZ is special. Our starting DTI was 50% higher than Ireland's at peak, so we're not going to fall as far!


Post Peak-Nesting?

NZ has a large chunk of society (usually older) which have achieved 'financial security' through homeownership and the holding of assets.

On the surface this makes sense as their is an expectation of getting wealthier with age. Unfortunately the new expectation/reality is people are unable to afford housing without a handout.. indeed even renting is a struggle for many.

The RBNZ and Government want to tinker; little adjustments here-and-there, a few houses over there, subsidies to placate the fear.

But the reality is those whom have achieved 'financial security' need poverty to prop up their finances:
- Landlords need tenants to service their loans and/or furnish their bank accounts
- Motel owners need poverty to enjoy "emergency housing" income
- Labour's expanded bureaucracy needs poverty to justify it's existence
- Some employers thought they needed poverty to ensure a captive workforce 
- The RBNZ believes in the wealth effect, which require poverty and less homeownership
- and so on..

So are we Post Peak-Nesting?
Are average to high income earners going to accept an ever increasing chuck of their income going to rent and other bills? Are low income earners going to accept living 4+ to a rental. Work will simply become unprofitable/pointless.

Are renters going to buy cans of house paint? Are renters interested in buying the latest furnishing and whiteware, simply to drag them from house-to-house? Are renters buying tools to fix little problems here and there? Are renters starting businesses in their poor quality and overcrowded properties? I think NOT.

The RBNZ has beaten the housing Ponzi [wealth effect] to death..
When the horse has been dead for years - it's time to dismount~!!


In a flat property market, only ID-ten-T group of sellers will put their house up for sale by auction!


My immediate neighbours  -

Elderly one side...a step away from Rymans.

Elderly across the road - went to hosp a month ago not returned.  Also owns empty house 3 down.

Further down old fella never waiting for the hearse to appear.

Extrapolate that around the suburbs kids....just a matter of time.  



I keep track of the house sales Prices in South Auckland and the last month property report does now show any significant change in the  property values and in the market itself.