Home values stalled in December with the QV House Price Index declining by almost $9000 for the month

I was about to mansplain the way that can happen when comparing aggregate statistics to their components, but I agree, doesn't seem to add up.  Maybe some peculiarity with the use of rolling 3 month averages, but again I can't see how.  Perhaps some stats guru can explain?

Postulation:

The "All of Aotearoa" values aren't just an average of each column, they're also weighted by the number of dwellings in each region, so (for example) a $1,680 fall in Auckland far outweighs a $3,219 rise in Palmy North.

The numbers do seem a bit strange to me too though, surely there aren't so many dwellings in Auckland that they can outweigh the increases in Christchurch, Wellington, Tauranga and Hamilton combined.

(Apologies for the continuing edits, I'm still waking up.) So looking at the columns, the HPI values for each region are correct for those regions, but the All of NZ value is not an average of the values above, it's the overall (weighted by number of dwelling per region) - the average of the raw regional values is about $100K lower. However, the annual and monthly "All of NZ" values are not based on the columns above but on the rows to the left. It's misleading to put them in the columns.

My theory is that the areas that are dropping are not represented in the list shown. The list is “Main Urban Areas”, I think the rural regions are behind the cities in the property cycle and are still dropping - prices continued to rise in these areas through the time they were dropping in Auckland and Wellington. I live in one and we have yet to see asking prices really drop, so not many sales happening here unless the vendors are really serious about selling.

That has to be an error. There's no way that makes sense.

Not suggesting this is why in this particular case as I haven't delved in to it, but this is possible if the number of dwellings in lower cost areas has increased at a higher rate than higher cost areas. Consider this overly simplified example:

• Region A has 10 houses with an average value of $500k
• Region B has 10 houses with an average value of $1m

A quick calculation suggests the average house price is $750k, calculated as (10x$500k + 10x$1m) / 20

Now let's say there's a development finished in region B, and they build 5 new houses. These are nice new builds, worth $650k each. Meanwhile Region B has the same number of houses, but they have appreciated slightly and are now worth $1.025m. So:

• Region A now has 15 houses with an average value of $550k (an increase of 10%)
• Region B now has 10 houses with an average value of $1.025m (an increase of 2.5%)

Yet because the weighting has increased on region A, the average house price is now (15x550k + 1.025x10)/25... or $740k. Average prices have decreased by $10k despite the average price increasing in every region.

Something doesn't add up. The graph says the average dwelling decreased by $9k in December.  But 13 of the 16 regions show a monthly increase

Because you're assuming that the methodology is based around basic arithmetic computations at its core. 

Most people go straight to the headline numbers without actually understanding the methodology or data composition.   

Thinking fast. Thinking slow. 

I guess that depends if you purchased recently or not and if it is a home or an investment?

53k off the value of an auckland home is more than 4 percent off the owners equity if leveraged.

And. If people subjectively feel their houses have lower price tags, this impacts on things like whether or not to get that spa pool or reach for the bright package of the craft beer on the supermarket shelves.

Given Luxon's time at Unilever, he will understand this. Princess Xindy would understand at a superficial level. 

The TA and AC pumped up puff pieces talk of green shoots have been doused with the neverfail defoliant of HIGHER FOREVER INTEREST RATES.

NEXT property toxic defoliant that takes out the 5 to 10 year old wood  will be the imposition of DTIs and the 2 Year Brightline.

A never fail mix of Woody Weedkiller, Glyphosphate and Agent Orange!!!

An Anni Hirrobalis year for an exposed property ponzi in 2024.

More developers and development land hits the skids,  as the Govt stops the KO bailout chest.

TA HAS ANOTHER YEAR OF EGG DRIPPPING FROM HAIR AND FACE.

If house prices don't rise then National might get impatient and boost first home owners grants in the name of "helping first homeowners and young families" blah blah...

Get with the program mate  - NZ residential property (especially Auckland) as an investment, if you haven't started already, is a lost cause. 

I hear on the wireless, that the great Nikki Connors is plying her trade again - I wish her all the very best, but you new punters, please do your homework ....and some basic math over the long term. 

Anyway, I'll be using my crypto profits to top up my income  - c'mon all your property spruikers, you all know it's been the best performing asset class over the last 5 years. 

LETS BOOK A CHECKIN IN AUGUST 2024 together - Zwiffy.......when a few more ladder rungs get smashed out of the NZ Housing Ponzi.

@Zwifter your use of the term "DGM" needs a revision, as there are people on this site that have enough intelligence and "street smarts" to know pretty much categorically, that this NZ (& most of the western world) "property speculation bubble" is now OVER. 

As I have said many times in the past , residential property investment can be a brilliant investment, with good gains for cashflow, and in "property myopic" Nu Zullin" you can get around capital gains tax as well.  

But all good things must come to an end  - sorry mate. While I had the sense to get completely out of residential property investment (2020 - USA & 2016 -  Auckland) 

Have you ever asked yourself why central banks all around the western world started raising interest rates ?  - they basically want to deplete as much as possible of the western world's disposal income, and have to force you to live off your savings and credit. While this affects neither the very rich or the poor  - but the middle class working slaves for banks and corporations. 

Forget about lower interest rates too, as they mean an economy is not creating enough affordable credit, for the banksters to be kept in clover ! 

I am always very weary of property spruikers, especially now, as it just shows to me, you are totally relying on property for income/business and/or it's your only form of investment/savings. 

Diversify while you can !