ASB survey finds kiwis are sitting on the fence when deciding if it's a good time to buy a house

Property / news

The last time NZers were this confident house prices would increase was just before the last housing market slump

7th Mar 24, 6:56am by Greg Ninness

Photo: Jorge Royan

ASB's latest Housing Confidence Survey shows a net 51% of respondents expect house prices to keep increasing, which is the highest level achieved for rising price expectations recorded by the survey since October 2021 - just before the market dived into its most recent downturn.

However there is a major difference in the market now, compared to October 2021.

"Last time net house price expectations were at this level, annual price growth was at almost 30%," ASB Senior economist Kim Lundy said.

"As of January 2024, annual growth was a more muted 2.2%."

The ASB survey was taken over the three months to end of January, making it a lagging market indicator.

During the three months to January, only a net 15% of respondents were expecting further interest rate hikes, down from a net 28% during the three months to October last year.

"Which suggests more people think a peak in rates might be just around the corner," ASB's report on the survey results said.

"As for whether now is a good time to buy a property, New Zealanders appear to be firmly on the fence, with 51% of respondents saying it's neither a good nor bad time to buy.

"This lack of conviction in the state of the market has been the case since the end of 2022.

"We acknowledge there are quite a few conflicting signals for prospective buyers: a turning market, policy changes, high debt servicing costs, possible debt-to-income restrictions and upfront affordability constraints," the report said.

ASB is New Zealand's second biggest housing lender with home loan exposure of more than $73 billion.

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109 Comments

by tomjones_04 | 7th Mar 24, 7:19am 1709749186

The survey participants were Ashley Church and Tony Alexander. Come on guys... which one of you was it?

by Carbaloy | 7th Mar 24, 11:00am 1709762407

I think Ashley Church is abit busy at the moment promoting Israeli / zionist propaganda.

by cornercafe | 7th Mar 24, 7:28am 1709749708

Well, we’re not on the fence. Even with a $250k deposit ready to go, and really wanting our own place there’s no way we’re going to jump in at these absurd prices. Rates would need to come down a lot, but I still see to many signs of inflation about to expect the central banks to drop rates in any meaningful way (stock prices and bitcoin high, oil prices trending higher again). The word no one is mentioning is stagflation, and there's still a good chance rates could go up more. 800k mortgage at historically normal rates, for a half decent Auckland house just doesn't add up, and certainly a noose I don’t want to wear.

by tomjones_04 | 7th Mar 24, 7:34am 1709750097

That's healthy and rational thinking. Unfortunately 51% of the surveyed people are likely home owners and have self interest. I agree with 100% of everything you said.

by Yvil | 7th Mar 24, 12:56pm 1709769370

Then it would mean that 49% of the surveyed people are not home owners, and equally self interested, just in prices dropping.

by Eschaton | 7th Mar 24, 7:49am 1709750952

Unless a forced sale, absurd prices will continue. Jump in if you can, buy a turn key and support additional new housing.

by Zwifter | 7th Mar 24, 8:33am 1709753631

I learned a while ago that there is no real logic in the housing market and Covid pretty much proved it. Personally if I had a good secure job and $250K ready to go I would be getting into a modest first home the instant you find something you like.

by 1689 Baptist | 7th Mar 24, 9:23am 1709756580

I agree. If house prices are growing at a very modest 2% p.a. that is still over 20k plus a year in gains. That more than offsets the high interest repayment premium ATM. Also keep in mind in Auckland you will also save 40k pa in rent. If you are confident that we are beyond the rate peak now is the time to buy. The op is hoping for a further crash that just isn't happening as far as I can see

by Harvey W | 7th Mar 24, 10:39am 1709761164

Seriously, you'd definitely be better to buy in 2024 than 2025, avoid disappointment!

by Sluggy | 7th Mar 24, 2:12pm 1709773942

how are you saving 40k when you are likely paying more than that in interest to the banking cartel ?

by 1689 Baptist | 7th Mar 24, 4:02pm 1709780547

Well i did say saving 40k in rent. Everyone will need to do their own calculations. But in the case of this thread, if the op has 250k saved and he rents for another year he will lose 40k in rent. His interest on savings will be negligible as he will need to maintain liquidity so that he can buy when the time is right. Lets say an offset of 5k. But assuming houses go up a negligible amount of say 2% in 2024 (most sources are predicting higher) He has an opportunity cost of 20k capitol gains. So the cost of him renting instead of buying in 2024 is 55k.

If he were to buy today with a 750k mortgage, and assuming he can secure a good rate as a new customer and the 10k cash sign up etc, The interest portion of his loan will be about 4k p.m or 52k p.a. So it is indeed cheaper for him to buy now assuming his liquidity is fine. I suppose I havent factored in 5k for insurance or council rates, but then the 2% capital gains for 2024 is conservative. Things will only improve as interest rates drop and he pays down principal.

The op is banking on prices crashing further. I don't see that happening personally.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 11:02am 1709762539

The housing market in NZ behaves quite logically to those of us who have studied it. And covid was no exception. Houses, like bitcoins, go up in value when their supply is constrained.

re ... "if I had a good secure job and $250K ready to go" ... They'd be few people in that group. Much like the NACTF's "up to $200 a week tax cut" that only 3,000 tax payers would get (assuming that the NACTF actually follow through).

by cornercafe | 7th Mar 24, 1:51pm 1709772699

OK that's interesting Zwifter, as I was thinking Covid proved the opposite. The RBNZ dropped rates to 0.25% while the Govt. pumped money into the system and house prices went up like a rocket. Now the OCR is 5.5% and house prices are down while market is more and more flooded with listings - seems very logical to me.

by Zwifter | 7th Mar 24, 3:21pm 1709778091

How is that working out now for those that bought at the peak ? For those that bought a second house instead of just paying down their existing debt faster ? Plenty of people that didn't think logically are now up shit creek.

by Averageman | 7th Mar 24, 3:54pm 1709780068

Clearly badly for the peakers. Was clearly an abnormal period though so Caveat Emptor.

by Kate | 7th Mar 24, 8:42am 1709754147

Sensible approach - and the interest you will be earning on the deposit will grow that deposit every day. Larger deposit on a lower house p[rice... it's an easy choice to sit tight for a bit longer.

by Retired-Poppy | 7th Mar 24, 10:40am 1709761255

Well said Kate!

by andanotherthing | 7th Mar 24, 3:47pm 1709779625

If you're factoring in interest earned you will also need to deduct cash value lost to inflation and money spent on rent. Makes this less of a straight forward decision for a first home buyer.

by interesting1234 | 8th Mar 24, 4:02pm 1709866961

What factor does inflation really play if the price of the house stays at $750k for the next 6months and in that time you make $1.5k or more in interest. You still wind up with more money to pay the deposit than before and hence lower interest repayments. Inflation is useful across a broad range of goods but in the above scenario it isn't highly relevant.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 7th Mar 24, 9:01am 1709755278

Inflation battle is far from over. There is a lot of shifting geopolitical lines that will likely result in some serious energy constraints this and next year,

I would like to think not - but I pick a recession in the US and Europe for mid to late 24... at the same time they will need to raise interest rates and cope with the deficit and serious unemployment from AI suddenly destroying jobs, All whilst Trump is elected and Ukraine spirals out of control

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 10:44am 1709761451

re ... "serious unemployment from AI suddenly destroying jobs"

LOL. How's your self-driving car going?

by General Comment | 7th Mar 24, 12:56pm 1709769393

I watched a Youtube clip recently where someone asked ChatGPT to write the tab for various guitar riffs and it couldn't get any of them right, even the opening of Smoke on the Water (pretty much the easiest thing ever to learn on guitar) was beyond it.

I watched another where someone asked ChatGPT to give them some popular song lyrics and it was mostly incorrect, including one where it wrote the first line then followed it with a copy of a legal disclaimer.

Of course, ChatGPT could probably do both correctly by now.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 1:19pm 1709770786

"Of course, ChatGPT could probably do both correctly by now."

Best laugh I've had today. Well done.

The people that believe answers from ChatGPT should look up the Dunning–Kruger effect. The people I know who are acknowledged experts in their subjects find ChatGPT answers hilarious. If you're not an expert, be very careful about taking answers from ChatGPT at face value.

Which, when you think about it, means that ChatGPT is really only providing answers to people who know little about a subject and are therefore easily lead / fooled by any seemingly authoritative answer. (In the economics field, I call this pub economics. I.e. answers you could get just as easily as asking people at the pub.)

by OldSkoolEconomics | 7th Mar 24, 4:10pm 1709781020

The interesting thing for me is where it is used.. e.g.

- Compiling reports

- Advancing bots that do customer service

- producing content..

So far I know about 4 employers that use it regularly. They haven't made any positions obsolete but they have increased productivity but taking boring tasks away from staff and giving them new tasks Each of them expects to extend the usage.

Self driving cars and more complex scenarios are a long way off. It's the less skilled workers that will go first. How fast it can accelerate is the question.... given the current investment and valuation of ai businesses a lot of smart people think it will develop quite fast

by huttman | 7th Mar 24, 9:04am 1709755490

there’s no way we’re going to jump in at these absurd prices

I have impression that you are waiting for prices to drop further, or price stable but your income increases further.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 10:45am 1709761524

Always a sound strategy.

by huttman | 7th Mar 24, 11:44am 1709765074

those two things are assumptions, not strategy.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 1:29pm 1709771344

My point was that in any dilemma there are always two options that should be considered, i.e. "do nothing" and "wait".

And at this stage of the economic cycle - where good data and clear direction are hard to find - they represent exceedingly sensible strategies.

by cornercafe | 7th Mar 24, 1:59pm 1709773189

Yes, I'm waiting to see if prices trend down again over the next 3-4 months. Also watching to see if the unemployment rate trends up. Will be certainly looking around to buy come mid year though if these trends pick up I'll probably wait a little longer.

by delboy | 7th Mar 24, 10:40am 1709761259

I would be actively looking and potentially buying this year. In July when the bright line drops to 2 years there could be a supply glut plus there’s a lot of people out there struggling to pay their mortgages.

Next year could see prices rising if interest rates go down, immigration continues at the current rate and investors return to the market once the govt reverses the policies the previous govt implemented.

by DTRH | 7th Mar 24, 10:47am 1709761662

If you had of purchased jan 22 in Auckland the 20% drop would have very painful. With rate’s staying around this level and many people who are over leveraged trying to sell their property price’s will probably fall rather than go up give yourself 12 months and see what happens, negative equity is a terrible place to be at the moment only the top 15% of earners can afford to buy scratch in Auckland it’s a disaster waiting to happen.

by NZGecko | 7th Mar 24, 12:03pm 1709766224

GREAT move.

Don't be the property industries next usefully idiot.

Don't be cannon foddered into being the latest, dry, splintered prop being placed precariously into the dangerious, gassy underground mine of a dieing property ponzi........

Wait and pay much, much less in 2025/26!

by andanotherthing | 7th Mar 24, 3:15pm 1709777745

Like most other investments it's time in market vs. timing the market. If you are looking for a house to live in you will likely be signing up for a 20-30 year mortgage during which time house prices and interest rates will fluctuate in cycles alongside the economy. Assuming you're a first home buyer you are in an enviable position and now is as good a time to buy as ever.

Fully depends on your goals, some people want to rent long term for the flexibility and that's great but if you are wanting to own don't sit on the sidelines because you're scared. Perfect timing only exists in hindsight.

by Nzdan | 7th Mar 24, 4:19pm 1709781540

Definitely. People forget time in market. Sure, if you manage to time the market you could borrow less. But in the long run it doesn't really make that much of a difference. Particularly when a portion of pay rises/promotions etc. will no doubt go towards increase repayments.

$600k @ 7.5% over 20 years = $550k in interest
$540k @ 7.5% over 20 years = $495k in interest
Difference = $55k. How much rent was paid while waiting for this saving?

by malamah | 7th Mar 24, 4:45pm 1709783131

Not quite, if you factor in the amount that mortgage costs, it's quite different.

Lets say they wait for 1 year for the 10% drop in price, or 10% in savings and flat price, then pay the mortgage off at the same weekly cost regardless. Interest paid is $388k and mortgage paid off 3 years earlier.

$600k @ 7.5% over 20 years = $550k in interest ($1112pw)

$540k @ 7.5% over 16 years = $388k in interest ($1113pw)

$162k saved.

Edit: it's $558k interest for $600k over 20 years, to $170k saved for one year of saving waiting.

by malamah | 7th Mar 24, 5:06pm 1709784363

Going even further - if this person is saving $60k p.a, then the house price would need to rise more than 8% in that first year for them to be worse off in terms of weekly payments, but even still with that price increase over the remaining 19 years they are saving $44k in interest, which should claw back that first year of rent. All else equal.

Mind you, that's $60k savings, $44k rent - $104k dedicated towards housing p.a., unsure they'd be looking at a $600k home.

by Adam B NZ | 7th Mar 24, 7:32am 1709749921

With the current prices of properties, interest rates and cost of living, many Kiwi's can only afford to buy the fence and not the house...

by Middleaged | 7th Mar 24, 7:47am 1709750869

There's still the option of a shoe box in middle o' street. The potholes will probably help.

by 1689 Baptist | 7th Mar 24, 9:26am 1709756807

I live in a discarded polystyrene cup next to my neighbors wheely bin on the North Shore. $4000 pm mortgage repayment. Fantastic bargain!

by lowercase capitalist | 7th Mar 24, 9:40am 1709757628

Luxury! my family could only dream of a polystyrene cup.

by IT GUY | 7th Mar 24, 10:45am 1709761505

At least you have a home

by M0ralHazard | 7th Mar 24, 7:49am 1709750974

"The last time NZers were this confident house prices would increase was just before the last housing market slump"

Made me laugh. Shows how much weight we should be putting into those surveys of expectations for things like inflation, house prices. Most people are clueless

by HouseMouse | 7th Mar 24, 8:03am 1709751805

Even people at the more intelligent end of the spectrum are pretty clueless

by printer8 | 7th Mar 24, 8:20am 1709752818

Well HouseMouse, you are in the category of not at the intelligent end of the spectrum but still pretty clueless . . . and lack credibility as shown by your abysmal record of predicting. :)

by WestieAJ | 7th Mar 24, 11:45am 1709765156

Go outside. Walk around and observe your fellow humans. Now consider the appropriateness of surveying their macro economic view.

by Averageman | 7th Mar 24, 8:04am 1709751859

What will happen is the 64 thousand doller question indeed.

Price is still stupid. Tried to buy a commercial property last week. Owners wants price to income yield of 4%. Commercial borrowing is at 9-9.5%. Left the agent with asking the owner if they would vendor finance as well below market interest rates to make greed, I mean price, fly.

Not holding my breath.

by IT GUY | 7th Mar 24, 8:23am 1709753003

Agents love "Wasting everyones time" written offers, but its all part of the game....

by huttman | 7th Mar 24, 9:11am 1709755884

4% yield or 4% rent return?

4% rent return is way too low.

by Averageman | 7th Mar 24, 9:57am 1709758623

Exactly. Cash in the bank with no risk is a better.

by Flying high | 7th Mar 24, 10:47am 1709761629

Commercial becoming more risky imo. Depends on the deal

by Pragmatist | 7th Mar 24, 8:09am 1709752142

Prices will increase, but not until we've cleared a backlog of stock on the market.

A couple years of going sideways, with new construction in the doldrums and rates dropping, then the inevitable upwards March (nominal prices) will resume, and with a moribund construction industry unable to respond quickly it may well become quite a strong price increase.

by Nellbell | 7th Mar 24, 8:15am 1709752524

Our biggest indicator of our position in the property cycle is all the excess housing stock and no buyers. I read a report on the Spanish housing crash some time back. Increasing listings and static prices was the stage just before the big price drop occurred.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 11:09am 1709762953

Good on you for doing some study in economic history. If it's any help, all property crashes I've analysed show exactly the same thing.

But take care. Correlation is not causation. There have been as many times when the market has just traded sideways until the excess stock is removed. The sideway movements are interesting studies in themselves. Particularly because they can last for a little as a few years and up to 20 years.

by Nellbell | 7th Mar 24, 12:51pm 1709769061

What do you mean by “correlation is not causation”?

You’ve said that all crashes you’ve analysed have shown exactly the same pattern… me too, have looked at a number crashes over the years. So you acknowledge there being a direct relationship between oversupply of housing caused by lack of buyers and a subsequent drop in price ….. and that that has been a repeatable pattern over numerous housing market downturns. I think that’s causal Chrisofnofame. It’s a funny notion then that when most buyers can’t raise the funds to purchase, that you think we might all just quietly “trade sideways” out of this problem.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 1:43pm 1709772224

And yet it happens. Spooky, ay?

This effect can be seen in many markets. The price history of many shares on the share market show the same pattern - long flat periods where the price is going nowhere where buyers won't buy for more, and sellers won't sell for less. You even see this sometimes in the depth (where buyers and sellers list the prices and quantities they'll accept). There can be a massive amount for sale at a certain price for months on end and yet the share price doesn't fall. Conversely, there can be huge amounts wanting to buy at a set price, but the sellers aren't selling, and the price doesn't move.

The NZ housing market has had a few times where the market has traded sideways (flatlined). From memory, the longest was about 10 to 15 years. So we have 'form', as they say, for exactly this outcome.

by Nellbell | 7th Mar 24, 2:30pm 1709775000

Don’t really know the stock market, my analyst work was all in medical research. I do know a bit about the 87 stock crash in NZ though, first hand as I was in Auckland at the time. Many share buyers we knew had borrowed against the family home to purchase the shares. There was a similar scenario as the NZ housing market is in now; the NZ stock market had undergone a rapid expansion with soaring prices, well above other international markets and the true value of the shares. A sense of not being able to lose on the investment was everywhere, discussed in work lunchrooms, parties and even over Christmas dinner ( my sister lost her life savings on “Christmas dinner Stockmarket advice” from other family members). And then it crashed. Of course taking peoples homes, livelihoods and the housing market - well whole damn economy - with it.

Then there was the same problem back then with stocks and the houses as we have right now ……. too many sellers and too few buyers - no one could raise capital. Was no sideways trading then. It was not that people don’t want to buy, they just can’t raise the money - for a variety of reasons.

But at the end of the day I think the housing market and the stock market are a bit different, because houses are homes for people and their families to live in and not an asset class to be traded. My understanding is that many who got burnt and abandoned the stock market in the late 1980s moved to investing in property and that’s a shame.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 8:42pm 1709797324

Yeah, the '87 crash. Ironically, I too was in Akl at that time having just finished a BCom. Reading the accounts of many companies was like reading a fantasy novel - the projections of value and growth were absurd. I got out - a few months before our ex-PM, Muldoon, pointed out it was a house of cards. I recognise the bigger fool theory - not proud to have profited from it tho. Not surprisingly, every NZSE company got tarred with the same brush and there were chances to pick up good yielding (15% plus), solid companies for a song, but capital growth didn't return for years. Got some very interesting work cleaning up a few failures too. Experience few get.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/business/1987-stock-market-crash/

by Market Interest | 7th Mar 24, 3:18pm 1709777884

Erm...Muldoon got summarily booted in the '84 snap election.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 8:44pm 1709797441

Corrected. He was an accountant and the fact he'd make such a comment was telling.

by IT GUY | 7th Mar 24, 8:22am 1709752922

Gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939, but I think civilized people don't buy gold, they invest in productive businesses.

~ Charlie Munger

Well here in NZ most people invest in Houses themselves and productive business via their managed Kiwisaver.... Safe as houses. Some of us have gold or BTC just in case...

by wingman | 7th Mar 24, 9:58am 1709758713

Gold.....one of the worst bets out there.

Inflation-adjusted, it's lower than it was in 1980.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 11:17am 1709763431

I heard a rumor (or am I just starting one?) that gold needs to be used in the next generation of AI chips as using gold increases the compute power by over 1000%.

(Yes. I made that up. But there's so much nonsense around A.I. at the moment that a bit more shouldn't be a problem.)

by malamah | 7th Mar 24, 1:36pm 1709771764

Hey, I just read that too!

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 1:46pm 1709772395

Shhh. Don't tell anyone.

by J.C. | 7th Mar 24, 2:51pm 1709776281

Inflation-adjusted, it's lower than it was in 1980.

1980 marked the end of an epic bull run for gold. Just so you're aware.

by henry chen | 7th Mar 24, 8:33am 1709753627

At the moment, there is no shortage of underlying demand for housing. But the market continues to move extremely slowly due to the lack of affordability.

Once rates start dropping, there will likely be a brief window of opportunity for everyone to purchase, before the subsequent rise in prices cancels out any affordability improvement brought about by the lower rates.

by tomjones_04 | 7th Mar 24, 8:43am 1709754235

Chris Bishop wants to restore parity with income ratios.. I really hope he's just not flexing, and for once, we have a politician that can deliver. Or else you are right, affordability issues will never come right.

by Pragmatist | 7th Mar 24, 10:11am 1709759511

Its a long term goal, and I suspect this govt won't be a 3 term govt. hell, they'll be lucky to get two if Labour can get its shit together before the next election.

The new housing minister has set a target of having homes costing just three to five times household incomes - well below what they are now in most of New Zealand.

But Chris Bishop does not want too quick a fix to the country's housing affordability crisis - saying a crash "tomorrow" would "cause enormous economic and financial instability to people".

"What I want is for house prices to moderate over time, so that in 10 to 20 years' time, we have essentially gone a long way towards solving our housing affordability problem," he told Checkpoint on Tuesday.

All that means is that house prices have to rise less than household incomes by a percent or two for twenty years. If you can comfortably afford to buy now, I wouldn't wait too long, rent will keep increasing, and your time to pay off the mortgage goes the other way.

4% wage inflation for 20 years is an 120% increase, ie 2.2x

2% house price inflation for 20 years is a 48% increase, ie 1.48x

$115k x 2.2 = $253k household income

$760k x 1.48 = $1125k. Median house price house

1125/253 = 4.4x Median Multiple, Job done, so if the goal is only "a long way towards" then the average house price inflation can be a bit higher.

by Blackbeard | 7th Mar 24, 9:48am 1709758108

Do you mean drop to covid emergency levels. Will never happen. If they do drop, it’ll be .25 or .5 at most, this won’t make any meaningful difference to mortgage rates. The pressure is on the ones that need to sell.

by refactornz | 7th Mar 24, 10:20am 1709760044

Rarely do interest rates ever drop only .25 or .5 then stay there. The .25 to .5 drop will just be the start of a 1.00 - 2.00 move down.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 10:55am 1709762154

Indeed. Why is it rare though? Could it be that central banker overshoot? (As ours is currently doing!)

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 10:53am 1709762012

re ... "Once rates start dropping, there will likely be a brief window of opportunity for everyone to purchase, before the subsequent rise in prices cancels out any affordability improvement brought about by the lower rates. "

Or sellers may capitulate first.

And if that happens - buyers will sit back and wait for better prices, and prices will fall further - classic bubble deflation pattern.

What I'm saying is it's not just interest rates. Take care.

by John Mendel | 7th Mar 24, 9:02am 1709755353

FHB can't afford buying a house, max a townhouse/apartment.

by Blackbeard | 7th Mar 24, 10:31am 1709760715

I notice just about all recently sold Auckland houses on ‘homes’ have sold price $TBC. Annoying to say the least. One would conclude the agent doesn’t want to divulge the drop in achieved sale price, as a reflection of their poor performance and market downward forces having a knock on effect.

by interesting1234 | 7th Mar 24, 10:09am 1709759348

They legally have 3 months to divulge from date of settlement don't they?

by refactornz | 7th Mar 24, 10:52am 1709761967

But that's always been the case except for houses sold at auction.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 10:57am 1709762251

Could be a reflection that many have "subject to finance" clauses attached.

by Flying high | 7th Mar 24, 11:43am 1709765001

In other words check back in 2 years

by JimboJones | 7th Mar 24, 9:42am 1709757739

“The last time NZers were this confident house prices would increase was just before the last housing market slump” - implies this survey is pretty pointless doesn’t it?

by refactornz | 7th Mar 24, 10:21am 1709760116

It feels more like a bias in the reporting.

by wingman | 7th Mar 24, 9:47am 1709758025

5% inflation + huge immigration + shortage of available land + more expensive building materials + new Council rules = higher house prices.

Trying to time the market can be an expensive mistake, prices are down a lot, not a bad time to take a punt.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 11:00am 1709762420

Neither "shortage of available land" nor "new Council rules" are valid in your equation.

Nice spruik though. Many will believe it.

by Flying high | 7th Mar 24, 11:37am 1709764651

New council rules... Schedule 1 I think its called for insulation of new homes

by ChrisOfNoFame | 7th Mar 24, 2:01pm 1709773305

This one? https://legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2004/0072/144.0/DLM5770963.html

Edit: I think you meant this? https://arcline.co.nz/new-nz-insulation-rules-2023/ (Sorry, best link I could find in a hurry that provides an overview.)

Many (most?) developers have been doing this level of insulation for quite some time now. Why is simple. It sells houses because buyers want to know what their future power bills will be. It actually doesn't cost a lot more (unless you're trying to achieve the required standards in a very thin wall).

by wingman | 7th Mar 24, 2:04pm 1709773484

There's plenty of land...try subdividing it and see what the Council say.

by wingman | 7th Mar 24, 4:56pm 1709783803

New council rules require better insulation and there is a shortage of available land. You might not think so, but try doing a subdivision and you'll change your mind.

by NZGecko | 7th Mar 24, 11:16am 1709763361

Wrong.

We about to see inflation surge back up again, over the course of 2024.......shipping costs and delays are growing again.

HFL WILL POP THE SPRUIKERS BUBBLE.

TONY A will see steam out his ears soon, as his toady antics of interviewing his like property types/vested interest leeches (total echo chamber) - towards prodding the housing market corpse back to life......fails badly.

by Yvil | 7th Mar 24, 11:40am 1709764829

Do you or have you owned property Gecko?

by NZGecko | 7th Mar 24, 12:09pm 1709766597

Yes lets say 80% invested across the broad asset spectrum.

NOT 70 to 80% dependant on a property Ponzi, as is the simple kiwi mentality and allocation.....

by Yvil | 7th Mar 24, 12:53pm 1709769231

Thanks, maybe a should rephrase my question like this: "Do you, or have you owned a property Gecko?" As a house, not as a mixed KS or mixed share portfolio?

by NZGecko | 7th Mar 24, 1:46pm 1709772383

Yes own a house for many years and stocks with some association to the Commercial and Resi housing market. Major allocations elsewhere though.

When one market craters, you need others that can be liquidated for profits, if need be.

by WestieAJ | 7th Mar 24, 12:00pm 1709766006

Shipping demand is slack. Drive around the logistics zones and see how many container trucks are parked up doing nothing. Rates are down from main China ports to NZ by USD 100 per 40' container Nov 23 vs March 24. Yes the Suez issue is causing delays from Europe. But transit through Singapore to catch connecting vessel to NZ is now faster on average because of reduced global shipping demand.

by IT GUY | 7th Mar 24, 12:51pm 1709769117

Housing upturn stalls for now

Tony A

by Yvil | 7th Mar 24, 12:55pm 1709769347

I was under the impression you didn't like TA's views? Why do you read his column then?

by IT GUY | 7th Mar 24, 1:08pm 1709770124

I read all things in the formation of my opinions Yvil, I even read that the NACT want homeless out of motels.

Stalled perhaps MUNTED .....

with so much supply suddenly coming on and few willing buyers, we are going to see big drops if clearance is to occur.........

A bloke reckons house prices will double in the next ten years. I show why this is a long shot

by Flying high | 7th Mar 24, 2:20pm 1709774437

NACT are bringing back 90 day vacancy notices which probably helps give confidence to taking in longterm emergency housing people. The problem is that a landlord doesn't charge enough for the extra risk... might charge 600pw while a motelier 300pd/2100pw... big difference

by Retired-Poppy | 7th Mar 24, 3:20pm 1709778059

"The problem is that a landlord doesn't charge enough for the extra risk"

Realistic Interpretation, "Landlords cannot get the return that reflects the risk"

by Yvil | 7th Mar 24, 11:38am 1709764727

So overall, expectation of prices rising/decreasing are about 50/50. But the Interest commenters are overwhelmingly negative, I wonder why? I suppose they will claim they know better?

by IT GUY | 7th Mar 24, 2:15pm 1709774137

We can see whats going to happen next, something you seem blind to. Perhaps you are biased as you are so deep in the trade....

Its funny if you trade shares, no one ever asks you, have you ever owned shares.... but on this forum there seems to be some belief that a DGM will never

own a house, that bias has no evidence that I have seen, its simply that most DGMs have a view that houses have some way to fall yet, no DGMer believes they will fall to zero..... where as most spruikers either need turnover from commissions or are balls deep in the market and any falls must really hurt on an equity basis and a pride basis

by Yvil | 7th Mar 24, 3:44pm 1709779489

I have said since the beginning of 2023 that I expect house prices to decline, (I was surprised they plateaued in the second half of the 2023). I have also stated multiple times that I expect house prices to drop in 2024.

Why do you say "I'm blind and biased" ? Do you not agree that house prices are likely to drop in 2024 ?

by Chairman Moa | 7th Mar 24, 12:06pm 1709766388

I am amazed that property prices in Auckland is still way over the top.Hopefully, there will me more pressure downward.

I had a quick catch up with an old workmate few weeks back in Gold Coast. They were tossing whether to shift to Australia or buy a house and settle down in Auckland. They chose the later and bought a little town-house in St Lukes for over 1.5 mil (3dr) with another 50-60K worth of work required. Comparatively, they could have bought this in central Brisbane for the same price and walkable to CBD.

https://www.realestate.com.au/property/unit-2-12-lower-clifton-tce-red-…

by EdwardD | 7th Mar 24, 12:15pm 1709766925

After walking around model homes ( with underfloor heating (with or ready for, solar panels), large walk-in pantries, large showers, walk-in wardrobes, etc, it's pretty hard looking at older homes with one heat source (a heat pump or fire) and a lot of upgrades required. The sad thing is that a lot of seller's seriously believe their homes are worth their asking price.

by IT GUY | 7th Mar 24, 12:55pm 1709769358

Reflecting this the net proportion of real estate agents in my survey saying that they are receiving more requests for property appraisals has climbed over recent months to sit at 64% this month and a record 76% last month from a net 5% in April last year receiving fewer appraisal requests.

And more stock to come, looks like pent up supply is coming in just before winter...... what could possibly go wrong.....

by wingman | 7th Mar 24, 4:59pm 1709783965

Kiwis expect house prices to go up.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/done-and-dusted-more-kiwis-believe-…

by NZGecko | 7th Mar 24, 5:39pm 1709786382

Promoting the Property Spruiking propaganda channels of two organs, really? - who are highly "Vested Interest parties" in the property Ponzi right here. NZ Herald are in the same ownership of Onewwwooof.........so obvious and slimey Vested Interest, it stinks.

Banks need to push their drug.

Believe the "interview their typewriter" drivel at your peril Winger.......Hope you get to drop the stinky property bags your holding, for not too much of a loss????

by wingman | 8th Mar 24, 8:58am 1709841500

I bought land in Riverhead last year after doing a heap of homework

....elevated, great views, new motorway work, road widening planned in Riverhead, new subdivisions planned, road widening work on SH16 north of Westgate underway, next to NZ's most expensive suburb, school extension, located between SH1 and SH16, massive retirement village approved in Riverhead, intersection upgrade of SH16 and Riverhead /Coatesville Highway, adjacent to Westgate shopping centre, recent subdivisions sold out, outskirts of NZ's biggest city, huge land area acquired by a building consortium - join the fun & get rich.

https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/UnitaryPlanDocuments/02-r1-form-18…

https://www.nzta.govt.nz/projects/sh16-brigham-creek-and-waimauku/

by malamah | 7th Mar 24, 6:24pm 1709789047

The same Riverhead Landowners Group whose plan got canned.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-government/300869525/au…

If you’d like to advertise, there’s a link in the footer.

by wingman | 8th Mar 24, 10:48am 1709848116

A minor inconvenience. Go for a drive and check it all out, but be prepared for traffic jams.

I'm not advertising, I'm telling viewers that a lot of the posts here about approaching disasters, whether it's global warming, or impending property crashes are BS.

by malamah | 7th Mar 24, 5:25pm 1709785555

Bank manager expects an article in local paper will stir activity for their number one product. Meanwhile the local papers are starting to go out of business because nobody is reading them. Meanwhile meanwhile PM expects unemployed to get a job.