Median housing values slip, sliding away

Property / news

Housing values on a slippery slide for the last five months, CoreLogic says

1st Aug 24, 12:01am by Greg Ninness

The national median dwelling value declined for the fifth consecutive month in July, down 0.5%, CoreLogic says.

According to the CoreLogic Home Value Index, the median value of all dwellings in New Zealand was $827,515 in July, down 0.5% compared to June, and down 2.5% (-$21,200) from February's summer peak.

The national median value has now retreated by $155,403 (-16%) from the record high of $982,918 set in January 2022.

Median dwelling values fell in all main centres in July versus June, ranging from -0.1% in Christchurch to -0.9% in Tauranga.

All of the main centres also recorded drops in the second quarter of this year, ranging from -1.4% in Christchurch to -2.7% in Auckland and Wellington.

The tables below slow the median value trends throughout the country.

"In an environment where economic growth is subdued and unemployment rising, with a knock-on sentiment affecting even those that are employed, it's logical to expect that the housing market would reflect this," CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said.

"In addition, the stock of listings available on the market remains at multi-year highs, giving credit approved buyers the power when it comes to negotiating a deal and agreeing a price.

"In that context it's not surprising at all to see that transactions are taking longer and vendors are having to give some ground to secure a sale," Davidson said.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

CoreLogic Home Value Index - July 2024

Main Centres

Auckland Districts

Wellington Districts

Provincial Centres

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117 Comments

by Squishy | 1st Aug 24, 12:07am 1722427659

Would never have happened under a Labour government.

by Jesse1 | 1st Aug 24, 12:44am 1722429896

It's just a continuation of the slide that was already happening under Labour and mostly about interest rates. One of the main reasons for the boost mid last year was that people thought that National were going to support the market (agents were saying exactly that).

by OldSkoolEconomics | 1st Aug 24, 12:14pm 1722471271

There isn't a way to support the market. Maybe to give it a bounce from time to time.

Investing in housing now is like swimming against a strong current. Plenty of better opportunities.

by J.C. | 1st Aug 24, 3:30am 1722439832

Would never have happened under a Labour government.

Jacinda Ardern wanted increasing house prices and houses to be more affordable at the same time.

Like some kind of Wizard of Oz. We all gather around sipping oat milk latte celebrating our differences watching our wealth magically increase without actually doing anything.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 7:27am 1722454043

What about dirty chai lattes ?

by the Joneses | 1st Aug 24, 7:39am 1722454760

So she wanted incomes to increase and house prices to drop in % of income terms but not in nominal terms. What a crazy lady.

Next you will be telling me she wanted people to be nice to each other in a stressful pandemic with lockdowns.

So glad we have the coalition of Landlords, Trucking Lobby and Philip Morris in charge now.

by K.W. | 1st Aug 24, 10:42am 1722465760

Jacinda Ardern was the ringleader in fomenting hate and division between New Zealanders. That is what she will be remembered for.

by the Joneses | 1st Aug 24, 11:48am 1722469716

How exactly did she do that K.W.?

Lets play a game, I will think of a few examples of divisiveness from the current government, and then you come back with your thoughts on Jacinda and her clear divisiveness.

This government has created a war on gangs. Plans to lock more people in jail. Calls poor people bottom feeders, business people B listers and the rest of NZ negative, wet and whiny. Jokes about blowing up government departments. Wants a referendum to nullify the founding document of NZ, the referendum being labelled by the government itself as 'divisive and unhelpful'. Implementing laws outlawing unisex toilets, and fining people for incorrect use as a clear hit at transgender people. Forcing councils to hold referendums on Maori wards only, not any other ward that is representing minorities like rural wards etc. Making government departments remove Maori names, because you know, screw the Maori and their language. Throwing out the entire Health executive board, so the government can have more control. Giving more power to those with power already like 90 day trials reinstatement, no fault evictions, removing and reducing housing standards. I could go on, but lets hear your list.

by averagejoe | 1st Aug 24, 1:58pm 1722477493

You say...."Wants a referendum to nullify the founding document of NZ, the referendum being labelled by the government itself as 'divisive and unhelpful'. Implementing laws outlawing unisex toilets, and fining people for incorrect use as a clear hit at transgender people. Forcing councils to hold referendums on Maori wards only, not any other ward that is representing minorities like rural wards etc. Making government departments remove Maori names, because you know, screw the Maori and their language. Throwing out the entire Health executive board, so the government can have more control. Giving more power to those with power already like 90 day trials reinstatement, no fault evictions...."

But I think you need to remember that none/most of these things existed prior to Ardern implementing them, and they are now being rightly pulled back by a government that was elected specifically for this purpose....and for your info, I don't think you can realistically compare an area of land called a rural ward, where everyone that lives there has an equal vote, with a Maori ward where only people of a particular race can participate. One is a racist concept, and the other is a geographical area. So, the Maori ward will be cancelled and rightly so. These wards will be cancelled all around the country. I understand some councils say they will go to a referendum, but they will fail and the net result will be that the council would be again spending rate payer money on something that they (rate payers) do not want, and the council members will be voted out as a result so they will be simply be cancelled.

by kiwimummma | 1st Aug 24, 11:16am 1722467794

Ardern intentionally set people up against each other the propaganda-ised vs those who prefer facts - typical divide and rule tactic. The word "kind" has taken on a whole new meaning - now a mashup of gaslighting & hate your neighbour & definitely don't talk to your neighbour. As to stressful lockdowns - that what a situation Ardern created. Lockdowns never did have any sort of scientific basis & she destroyed so many people's lives with her pure evil actions.

by the Joneses | 1st Aug 24, 12:00pm 1722470447

Yeah, either that or they did their best in a global pandemic.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Aug 24, 8:50am 1722545415

Sweden is a prime example of making their own decisions vs following the western world. IMO they came out a lot better off for it.

by HGWR | 1st Aug 24, 12:11pm 1722471115

I don't know how you can say lockdowns didn't have a scientific basis. We successfully eliminated the virus repeatedly and enjoyed many more freedoms and fewer deaths than most other countries. I think the final lockdown in Akl was kept for too long - it will have saved lives elsewhere by buying time for vaccination, but I'm not sure that the benefits elsewhere outweighed the cost to Aucklanders. But that's one debatable misjudgment after two years of using lockdowns very successfully.

by K.W. | 1st Aug 24, 12:32pm 1722472333

The average Covid death (worldwide) was aged 84 and had three serious co-morbidities. So all the people that were "saved" from Covid still died anyway. Just not from Covid. I dont see how changing their method of death by locking down the country and destroying the lives of young and healthy people achieved anything long term. The dead are still dead. Just not from Covid. Woopdedo.

by J.C. | 1st Aug 24, 11:49am 1722469783

So she wanted incomes to increase and house prices to drop in % of income terms but not in nominal terms. What a crazy lady.

People need to understand the difference between 'wants' and 'needs'.

If a leader promises you the moon without explaining what the trade-offs are, you need to be wary and question their authenticity. May sound harsh but that's the reality. Doesn't matter if you have the same taste in music and frequent the same cafes.

And trust me, Ardern is not some god-like figure who's able to magic up gold dust from her fingertips. Unfortunately it seems that many people don't want to believe that.

by the Joneses | 1st Aug 24, 12:05pm 1722470756

Nice rhetorical sidestep.

Your now saying she was acting as a salesperson for her party to get into government? Oh, heaven forbid, now I realise why you can't let her go!

by J.C. | 1st Aug 24, 12:08pm 1722470886

No. what I am saying is that trade offs are very much part of everything. It's not that difficult. If you think about it.

- House prices cannot become more 'affordable' if nominal prices are increasing beyond the sheeple's ability to earn. It's not complicated.

- If incomes are to rise, you cannot rely on an economy that doesn't produce anything of value. Yes, it may appear that economies that rely on credit creation to bid up prices of a generally fixed housing stock can create a wealth effect whereby more money is spent into an economy thereby having a positive impact on incomes. But history shows us it's a fool's game and is only temporary. I shouldn't really have to point this out in 2024.

by the Joneses | 1st Aug 24, 12:36pm 1722472616

OK yeah, I understand our economy generally is not sustainable and being propped up by a housing bubble. I am not one to cheer on house prices.

But, she simply reiterated the same thoughts on house prices of all the other prime ministers in NZ in the last few decades. For some reason you keep holding her to a much higher bar than anyone else. Lamenting her personality and historical popularity. It just comes across as a bit weird is all.

by J.C. | 1st Aug 24, 12:49pm 1722473361

For some reason you keep holding her to a much higher bar than anyone else. Lamenting her personality and historical popularity. It just comes across as a bit weird is all.

I simply reiterated what she previously said to the NZ public in response to a comment. Her words. Not mine.

And perhaps Jacinda Ardern is some kind of economic visionary. It shouldn't stop people pointing out the contradictions.

But I think that highlights the general apathy and inability of NZers to think independently and critically. Challenge or criticize Ardern and next there are accusations of misogyny, racism, etc. It's very immature.

by vman | 1st Aug 24, 1:00pm 1722474056

And challenge the coalition and you are are woke,lefty communist sucking on the teats of the "ordinary hard working kiwi mum & dad investors who are doing Gods work providing accomodation to the masses..."

by J.C. | 1st Aug 24, 2:54pm 1722480849

Not so sure about that. It seems to me that the woke elite are equally as reliant on the Ponzi as the wingnuts. In fact, I would go as far to say the woke elite simply use those at the lower end of the socio-economic scale as props in their own aspirations and ambitions. A true woke revolutionary would be more like the ex-president of Uruguay Jose Mujica who practised what he preached. A true leader. No way would you find Mujica swanning around the world being paid silly money by the likes of Soros-affiliated organizations.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Aug 24, 8:57am 1722545864

I don't think that any political party represents the entirety of anyone's values or way of thinking. However, a party may have certain key policies that are more relatable than others, and most would vote for the least worst if there are no true standout policies that one feels are necessities. Everyone should be able to be critiqued, and to critique from their own lens. This is how we learn, grow, analyse and problem solve as a community to find the best solutions. The issue we have today is people reacting and rebutting too quickly, before internalising and thinking about what they have heard and making any attempt to seeing the matter under a different lens.

by morepork | 1st Aug 24, 7:51am 1722455515

Luxon has the same stance though, he would only go as far as saying he wants "downwards pressure" on house prices, by which I think he means slower increases than in the past.

Good on Bishop for saying that he wants house prices to come down, I don't recall any Labour MPs saying that while in government.

by General Comment | 1st Aug 24, 8:02am 1722456140

I'd say Bishop's wish is like me saying I want an apple to hit the ground when I release it from my hand. "See, I made gravity happen!"

I don't expect to see any significant turnaround in the housing market until a rate appears with a 4 at the start. It may be 4.99%, but I suspect there's a psychological barrier that says 5s are bad and 4s are good.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 8:15am 1722456921

mainly because most rentals do not provide 5% yields

by Black and White | 1st Aug 24, 8:36am 1722458179

Why are we still wasting our time talking about Jacinda Ardern?

The country needs forward looking people that can sort out the mess started way Back at the GFC.

Dirty laundered Money from 2008-2017 Killing our housing Market and the Kiwi Dream Thank You National.

Printed money on the back of Covid 2020-23 Thank You Labour

Not pretty now with Laundered money and print money off the roundabout.

There is only one answer.

Start working hard again New Zealand and turn this around we used to be good at working hard.

by yeahrightmate | 1st Aug 24, 8:56am 1722459418

All these hard Jacinda haters were more than happy to take the helicopter money through covid with many exploiting their privilege as business owner/operators. Ignoring macro/global forces and the fact most other countries experienced the same or worse than NZ. Short sightedness and hypocrisy mixed with vile distain for a single human being is just a sad reflection of how many kiwis look at the world.

by kiwimummma | 1st Aug 24, 11:26am 1722468366

Lockdowns were never scientifically based. What should hardworking business owners do when Ardern shut down their businesses, for no reason - just cos she could? Go bankrupt because of unscientific & I might add unlawful diktats or take a small proportion of what they have lost in printed money. Ardern destroyed the economy by disallowing productivity (except of course big multinational business) and pumping printed money into the economy. You have suffered military grade propaganda but its time to wake up now so you are prepared for when they do it again. And if you think I'm kidding go and check out Health NZ draft "pandemic" plan. BTW we used to have a perfectly good pandemic plan which Ardern ignored.

by CrispyKahawai | 1st Aug 24, 12:07pm 1722470879

Yes, I always look to… (checks notes)… kiwimummma for my scientific updates!

by SomeKiwiFounder | 1st Aug 24, 12:10pm 1722471043

The pandemic response was absolutely scientific. Multiple doctors I know working in hospitals across NZ wanted even faster lockdowns and border closures. The NZ response to the pandemic was one of, if not the, best in the world.

The threat of a pandemic is higher than a war. The total number of deaths above the yearly expected death count (which was a conservative estimate following previous years total deaths plus a year over year growth rate) in the USA was over a million people at the 2 year mark. For reference, ~420,000 Americans died during the entirety of WW2, that puts the total number of deaths due to pandemic at more than 2x the total Americans dead due to a world war.

It is absolutely right for a government to take action in enforcing temporary protective measures for a country. Those who rally against this strike me as the same type of people who refused to turn their lights off at night during the London air raids in WW2, contributing the deaths of their countrymen through their own ignorant stubbornness.

SKF

by K.W. | 1st Aug 24, 10:51am 1722466291

NZers used to be hardworking. Now they are just a bunch of lazy, entitled welfare parasites that expect everything to be handed to them on a plate without having to work for anything. That's 6 years of the Labour Govt identity politics telling people that they deserve special rights, and anything they want should simply be taken from their "oppressors" and be given to them.

“Possibly my biggest culture shock was (from my perspective) the lack of ambition,” one US expat claimed. There were positives to less of a hustle culture, such as better mental health, more perspective, and a pleasant approach to life. The negative was that, although the laid-back approach may have been fine 10 years ago, capitalism was making it harder for people in middle-class jobs to get by.

“There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with that if those jobs pay enough to survive and find a bit of enjoyment in life, but I feel that even over the past 10 years or so the culture and economy is changing such that it’s harder and harder for the average Kiwi to survive in this way,” they wrote."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/culture-shock-in-new-zealand-american…

She said it was hard to wrap her mind around work-life balance not being a priority, especially because they moved in the hopes of spending more time as a family. "There was also no focus on or understanding of mental health or work-life balance in our experience," she said.

Cassidy told news.com.au the move made her realise she took Aotearoa's work culture "for granted". In the end, they decided to move home.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2024/05/kiwi-couple-shocked-by…

This is one reason why New Zealand is sliding into backwater, third world country status. Anybody with an ounce of work ethic and ambition is leaving, and all the losers who cant cut it overseas are coming back to get their reduced hours and WFF welfare.

by Ocelot | 1st Aug 24, 11:04am 1722467057

We've been bouncing off record low unemployment for a long time now and people are still making these kinds of anti-NZer posts?!

The only reason why NZ is sliding into third world country status is because we got rid of land tax and loaded the burden on GST and income tax, disincentivising both work and trade, while incentivising inefficient and unproductive landholdings, and misdirection of capital into land. The real burden are the unproductive landholders squeezing the juice out of the working. They are the biggest beneficiaries by several orders of magnitude and parasites our country can no longer afford to support.

by morphyoss | 1st Aug 24, 11:08am 1722467291

If we're generalising, i've fixed it for you:

NZers used to be hardworking. Now they are just a bunch of lazy, entitled generational multiple home-owning parasites that expect everything to be handed to them on a plate without having to work for anything. That's 30 years of cashing in hard earned intergenerational wealth, whilst investing nothing for the future to maximise short term gains telling people that they deserve special rights, and anything they want should simply be taken from their "oppressors" and be given to them.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 11:56am 1722470169

Blame the game or blame the player.

Best to take away the old game and give the players the chance to migrate across to productive enterprise. Sure many will not be able to make that migration, but if enough do we will all be better off. IMHO if you seriously reduced companies tax this would help.....

by SomeKiwiFounder | 1st Aug 24, 12:22pm 1722471737

I actually think you would solve this with more tax. Country wide LVT (again) plus a broad capital gains tax that includes housing and removing the FIF tax (which is insanely expensive on a compound basis if you want to invest in the S&P500 over 30 years).

With no capital gains tax I am heavily incentivised to sell my own company to American investors and let them milk the profits for years. Every $1 of profit I withdraw from my company is taxed, so it’s more like $0.66, whereas I could sell the company for 4-10x profit and not be taxed. That means I would have to work for 6-15 years in order to take home the same amount of $$$ that I could get in 1 year of selling the business… and we wonder why NZ tech companies usually get bought out by foreign investors that take the profits off-shore.

SKF

by K.W. | 1st Aug 24, 12:42pm 1722472978

That is such a good point. It bugs me that promising companies simply get sold off (usually for peanuts) instead of being listed on the stock market. But worse, if you sold the majority of it to American interests but kept some stock, then you would be subject to FIF tax on your holding. So you are forced to sell it all.

by SomeKiwiFounder | 1st Aug 24, 9:56pm 1722506173

You can get FIF exemptions for Employee Share Scheme allocations

by agnostium | 1st Aug 24, 12:04pm 1722470696

NZers used to be hardworking. Now they are just a bunch of lazy, entitled welfare parasites

I know right, have you seen the Superannuation welfare bill?

by Murray Falconer | 1st Aug 24, 12:07pm 1722470850

It's perfectly valid to remind ourselves of history and learn from it. Take ANZAC Day, should we also stop talking about that and past wars?

Had you looked into history a bit further back, then you'd likely appreciate that our current (mainstream) problems started way before the GFC.

As for your one answer, we likely have more people engaged in work and working more hours than ever.

Hard work isn't going to answer anything when you're a slave to landlord/bank/visa application. That said, I would love a system that genuinely rewarded hard work in a remotely equitable way.

by Black and White | 1st Aug 24, 8:24am 1722457455

Fantastic.

The stoping of the greedy Bankers and Greedy realestate agents is well under way.

This is only good for young Kiwis who need a break.

Time for the rest of the country to invest in more productive things like business,Farming and shares.

Hopefully this will wake banks up to be more business like rather than running the biggest Ponzi this countrys ever seen.

by General Comment | 1st Aug 24, 8:49am 1722458976

I wish. I have a solid plan to significantly improve income on my rural property but the bank won't even consider lending until that income is already arriving. Currently attempting to poop out an egg so a chicken can hatch.

If I want to buy a rental property, however...it's raining hen, hallelujah, it's raining hen, amen.

(That song's stuck in your head now...)

by Murray Falconer | 1st Aug 24, 12:21pm 1722471699

The stoping of the greedy Bankers and Greedy realestate agents is well under way.

No it isn't, we've changed nothing of significance in the system to stop it repeating all over again at this point if interest rates returned to covid levels. Granted we are running out of road, but we also had a reserve bank talking up negative rates...

Time for the rest of the country to invest in more productive things like business,Farming and shares.

Why not keep them going as they are and reduce the population. Redirecting paper shufflers into roles needing filled in these productive things you speak of?

Hopefully this will wake banks up to be more business like rather than running the biggest Ponzi this countrys ever seen.

The banks are responding to the environment they operate in. The rules of the RBNZ that favour residential mortgages, the taxation setting that favour landlords over home owners and capital gains over the hard work you lament kiwi's aren't doing enough of. If the current rules remain, much of the profit from hard work will be captured by the FIRE sector.

All this is BAU, we haven't even start talking about things PDK has bought to our attention.

by Black and White | 1st Aug 24, 2:38pm 1722479902

Gee Murray you have been brainwashed.

Did you go to University to learn this?

Our country is in the gutter what's your positive ideas and vision to fix it.

The last 20 years have been a disaster.

The blame game needs to stop.

by Murray Falconer | 1st Aug 24, 10:12pm 1722507176

Brain washed many times over B&W, e.g. the food pyramid, that exercise can control weight, that we can grow population/GDP/debt/whatever forever on a finite planet, etc.

I did go to Uni, but I'm not sure which of my statements you're referring to and think I have incorrect. Could you be more specific?

Our country is in the gutter what's your positive ideas and vision to fix it.

I agree NZ is in trouble (and as I said it's more than the last 20 years). If you've been reading here for a while you'll know that I advocate for not growing our population via immigration and letting it sink due to natural birthrates being below replacement already. I advocate for a land value tax to improve housing affordability and encourage ownership and for this to be offset against income taxes on the 'hard work' you advocate we should be doing. As I've already alluded to, although you may have missed it, I would not have the RBNZ favouring lending to residential property in their risk weighting. None of this was born at Uni.

The blame game needs to stop.

Why? If poor policies have caused the current mess we're in, then I absolutely will blame those poor policies. Perhaps you've read more into what I've typed than I did if you think I'm blaming any party or person.

by Black and White | 2nd Aug 24, 8:06am 1722542778

Good response Murray

What I am getting at with the blame game is its know good blaming what's happen in the pass. With you on getting into the current bunch they need to be held accountable at the moment as they are not doing any better than the last lot.

Lots of talk that's about it the cancellation government.

What we need a the moment is forward looking Leadership with vision to sort this mess out.

by Murray Falconer | 2nd Aug 24, 11:20am 1722554416

Thanks B&W, while individual parties/leaders were in power at various times - they have failed existing citizens massively with the get rich via housing and population growth strategy. We could compete with Australia by having significantly lower shelter costs. If you weren't aware I usually vote for a party that doesn't get into parliament, the last 3 elections were for TOP although it was only their land tax/tax switch policy that kept me there in the last election as they dropped their sensible immigration policy.

I don't see any incentive for the incumbents to sort anything out, they're mainly career politicians and put themselves first. It's one of the reasons I also advocate for a lowering of the 5% threshold - to get fresh thinking and ideas exposed (as if fairer representation wasn't enough of a reason).

by interesting1234 | 2nd Aug 24, 9:02am 1722546125

If you advocate for low immigration, you also need to advocate for serious reform to the super scheme as they go hand in hand. Big changes to come this next 5-10years I'd say.

by Murray Falconer | 2nd Aug 24, 11:27am 1722554875

I don't follow i1234 sorry.

From a labour perspective, we have plenty doing nothing and care homework need not have huge barriers to entry unless we choose to put them up. Heck, in the last few months I've been doing just that for elderly relatives (don't tell anyone I don't have any qualifications or they might have to pay someone).

From a 'money' perspective, I advocate for taxation reform which includes land taxation so those overseas owners will be paying for NZ Super to lighten the load. But yes, I'm open to changing the rules around super. Immigration and elderly family haven't done our health and super bills any favours and those that immigrate will get old too. So, if your plan is to grow population exponentially to 'pay for super', I think you may need another plan to be frank.

by lowercase capitalist | 1st Aug 24, 12:51am 1722430296

I wonder how much of an effect removing the FHB grant had/will have. Difficult to quantify of course but I always assumed that it never really helped affordability, it just jacked up the price people were willing/able to pay.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 7:28am 1722454122

House prices have fallen more then the grant since announcing changes

by morepork | 1st Aug 24, 8:25am 1722457556

The grant would be added to your deposit, which the banks would then lend on. So the increase to a FHB's purchasing power would be around 5x the value of the grant. Prices haven't fallen that far yet

by K.W. | 1st Aug 24, 10:59am 1722466788

The FHBG does not appear to significantly increase housing accessibility for new entrants into the market. Instead, research has found that the scheme more commonly tends to accelerate the purchase of a home for those already planning to do so. So, rather than broadening access, the scheme simply tends to hasten purchase for those already about to buy a home.

Second, the FHBG tends to increase the purchasing power of first homebuyers, but in doing so it tends to further inflate house prices. This is because demand-side policies that give people more money to spend on housing tend to just end up increasing prices more. This suggests that the scheme may actually reduce housing accessibility in the long term – the very problem that such measures are designed to address. In turn, it suggests that the FHBG tends to benefit existing homeowners who will profit from their property prices increasing – and disadvantage future first home buyers, who will be forced to pay more for a home.

https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/first-home-buyers-grants-20-year…

Due to the combination of the FHBG, the ability to borrow more, and an inelastic supply, we have concluded that the FHBG did increase the median price of houses in Australian by approximately $57,321.

https://ojs.deakin.edu.au/index.php/dpibe/article/download/52/59/114

by Cote d'Azur | 1st Aug 24, 4:37am 1722443868

Up 18.6% from pre-plague level, long series of rate cuts underway.

This time it's not different!

Santé! 🥂🌴

by yeahrightmate | 1st Aug 24, 7:39am 1722454752

yes which is now 4.5 years ago, so what's that annualised? 4%?

by Time Lord | 1st Aug 24, 8:17am 1722457065

and only requires a further 15.6% decrease in prices to wipe out those gains.

Auckland only needs a further 9% decrease

by makechange | 1st Aug 24, 8:19am 1722457184

Losses if considered in real terms

by Time Lord | 1st Aug 24, 8:28am 1722457735

🥂🌴

by Zwifter | 1st Aug 24, 12:11pm 1722471066

Unfortunaly that's rubbish. House prices used to be 3x income now they are 9x income. The only losses in real terms have been wages over the last 50 years.

by averagejoe | 1st Aug 24, 8:56am 1722459373

I must admit, I was worried for my kids in 2021 when we got to peak. All the usual suspects were telling us it would go up up up. I considered jumping in and buying a second property. I got the money arranged from the bank, and then decided, no, this thing is going to crumble like house of cards….and here we are. Maybe a lucky guess, but, I did end up not buying a 600k property for a million bucks like many seem to have. Much of this is all debt too, so the reducing internet rate is not going to make a lot of difference. We won’t see the lows again like during Covid, we are talking 5-6% rates instead of 7. So people are going to have to bail regardless as those mortgages are so big. It will be years as this plays out. Probably a few year to go until the bottom is reached. I’m picking below pre-Covid.

by Puddleduck | 1st Aug 24, 9:09am 1722460166

And that $600k property for $1m is the crux of the matter.

by Cote d'Azur | 1st Aug 24, 11:38am 1722469124

Bit more than 4%, but anyway, not bad for a so called slump is it! 🌺

If 4% a year is a slump I'm looking forward to the boom! 💥 🚀

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 11:58am 1722470294

it must be just around the corner, try holding your breath....

by yeahrightmate | 1st Aug 24, 2:07pm 1722478036

Prep your little rocket for the moon!

by Averageman | 1st Aug 24, 7:16am 1722453378

So all the talk of prices being at the bottom was more like something exiting someone's bottom...

💩

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 7:26am 1722453978

Market has fallen as far as most spruikers suggested it would rise this year still got summer capitulations to come

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 24, 7:29am 1722454190

It’s cool to be a DGM now!

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-markets-are-betting-on-st…

by interesting1234 | 1st Aug 24, 8:13am 1722456792

Cue the dredging of spruiker comments from 2020-2021 taking the mick of the humble DGMs

by Nifty1 | 1st Aug 24, 8:52am 1722459178

Poor ol' Tony, it looks like it's finally caught up to him after making so many bad calls...

by HouseMouse | 1st Aug 24, 8:55am 1722459351

Yeah and he’s not making calls now!

by DDDDebt | 1st Aug 24, 8:06am 1722456384

There are some capitulations out there already

Friends daughter tried to buy a house at auction in Kapiti in 2021 - was outbid at auction and it went for $1.4m

Agent called her back a few weeks ago saying vendors now desperately need to sell - looking at offers over 880k

by JohnfromtheTron | 1st Aug 24, 8:17am 1722457067

I'm guessing offers over 880k will just cover what they owe the bank

by morepork | 1st Aug 24, 8:32am 1722457960

I feel sorry for people in that situation, unstable house prices combined with buying at the wrong time have likely wiped out most of their life savings

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 8:54am 1722459266

loss of job or sickness the leading cause of house loss

by CN - new | 1st Aug 24, 2:58pm 1722481109

"loss of job or sickness the leading cause of house loss"

In the current house price downturn, high levels of debt (taken on at a time of record low interest rates) combined with rapidly rising interest rates have pushed many borrowers into cashflow stress.

Mortgage interest rates are currently above the bank stress test rates used in 2021.

by JimboJones | 1st Aug 24, 10:43am 1722465818

Yes, potentially lost half a mil there. We fooled ourselves into thinking half a mil is nothing when interest rates were low, but it turns out it is still a lot of money, life changing.

by Clefton Twain | 1st Aug 24, 12:18pm 1722471485

Yeah it's a tough lesson.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Aug 24, 9:19am 1722547192

I've a friend in this situation who bought at the peak, has lost their deposit, however they have, since buying their home, changed jobs twice for much higher salary, and are making do with savings everywhere they can. Helps to have skills one can earn from on the side also.

by CN - new | 1st Aug 24, 1:41pm 1722476517

"Friends daughter tried to buy a house at auction in Kapiti in 2021 - was outbid at auction and it went for $1.4m

Agent called her back a few weeks ago saying vendors now desperately need to sell - looking at offers over 880k"

Just out of interest, what is the address of that property?

by streetwise | 1st Aug 24, 12:02pm 1722470542

I don't know whether house prices are falling or not. But what I do know is that the number of 'Houses for Sale' real estate signs on the property frontages are now proving to be a traffic hazard, especially to older drivers like myself.

Returning eastwards from shopping at St Luke's mall yesterday I was distracted from driving safely by the sheer number of House For Sale signs as I drove through residential areas.

I think that there has to be a limit to the number of House For Sale signs per, say, 100 metres of road. I would suggest no more than 20 signs per 100 metres. Auckland Transport should have already been on to this; they will be responsible for any accidents resulting from such distractions.

by agnostium | 1st Aug 24, 12:08pm 1722470935

Speed up man. You're not on the same page as the coalition govt.

The government's plans is for you to pedal to the metal down those residential streets at breakneck speed so that you're driving too fast to clock any signs (or kids).

by Nzdan | 1st Aug 24, 12:22pm 1722471763

Alternate days for signage like we do for sprinklers. Odd numbers on odd calendar days and even numbers on even calendar days.

by gbogo | 1st Aug 24, 7:29am 1722454153

Auction data under $1.5m is getting worse.. -20%, -30%, -50% as desperate sellers cave. Above $2m, it seems to be Withdrawn and Passed In. I get that more expensive property may hold up better in a down-market but the disconnect cannot go on forever... can it?

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 8:27am 1722457649

Normally in past recessions most of the really good high end homes just come off the market unless a forced mortgagee sale.... but the boomers are aging and I know of many in 70's stuck on rural with 2021 valuations still in mind, going to be a hard bridge to cross.... RVs will help

by Retired-Poppy | 1st Aug 24, 8:44am 1722458657

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUODdPpnxcA

With much anticipation of borrowing rates peaking - buyers will be out in force, especially now that they're finally falling - right? Um - no. This is the reset in unrealistic expectations we needed to have.

Job insecurity

Houses still overpriced

by rastus1 | 1st Aug 24, 9:05am 1722459929

carpenters -We've Only Just Begun (youtube.com)

by Zwifter | 1st Aug 24, 9:50am 1722462620

Thought for a second this would be a new hit sung by a group of DGM builders.

by Retired-Poppy | 1st Aug 24, 10:12am 1722463951

While Taylor Swift sings to Zwifty - "August slipped away into a moment in time"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfF7XQBfyxY

.....Zwifty is left wondering if August 2023 really was the bottom.

by 1689 Baptist | 2nd Aug 24, 2:05am 1722521119

You keep ridiculing Zwifter for calling August 2023 the bottom.. You are aware that as it currently stands he is still right?!

by Independent_Observer | 1st Aug 24, 9:32am 1722461565

In my view there is still the possibility or likelihood of accelerating price falls as interest rates drop - which appears to be the contrarian view to the property lobby groups.

Rates will drop until unemployment/employment has stabilised once more - ie rates are dropping because the economy isn’t good and asset prices (in a normally functioning financial system) don’t go up when the economy is going tits up (insert more technical term if you please). To think that asset prices should rise/‘recover’ (or whatever this ‘recovery’ narrative means that the property lobby is collectively pushing) while the economy deteriorates is in my view delusional - but the 2020 experience is the probable culprit for this recency/confirmation bias in such thinking.

Ask yourself - why should asset prices rise while unemployment rises, businesses fail, incomes contract? That doesn’t make any financial sense at all. A caveat would be that the government steps in like covid and prevents any unemployment or business failure while rate cuts occur - but this most probably isn’t the case over the next 12-24 months.

by Averageman | 1st Aug 24, 10:01am 1722463287

The property lobby groups are all focused on tax free capital appreciation while barely covering interest only math. Aka not a true investment, just speculative gambling. While we have capital depreciation they can burn baby burn...

by bw | 1st Aug 24, 10:22am 1722464531

(insert) = which just like 'belly up' refers to 'a dead female corpse floats on its back'. Probably both being very appropriate for what's coming.

by K.W. | 1st Aug 24, 11:26am 1722468393

They don't. Asset prices rise when interest rate easing cycles are ending, not beginning. Covid was an anomaly fuelled by super cheap debt, and nothing else to spend it on while locked up in our homes like a meth dealer on HD and unable to flee the country.

by kohimarama | 1st Aug 24, 10:24am 1722464644

Both and all parties are the wings of the same bird. With the same objective of stealing your wealth.

Whilst enslaving you at the same time. They have done this by dividing and conquering by switching and playing good cop 👮‍♀️ bad cop 👮🏻‍♂️

World debt is well over 300 Trillion. Derivatives/Futures are in the Quad trillion’s.

they are all set to fail.

John Key has leveraged all NZ roads against Derivatives and the other parties are complicit and have not said a word about changing this.

by kohimarama | 1st Aug 24, 10:28am 1722464902

All these talking heads above are gaslighting you.

There is no justification for lowering interest rates. In fact it should be the opposite. It’s all designed to get you onto short term or floating rates. Before everything goes pear shaped 🍐 and to completely steal every bit of your wealth.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 10:36am 1722465419

please post WEF world domination links below

by bw | 1st Aug 24, 10:57am 1722466631

"Wall Street never recommends frugally piling up cash for a few years, as that generates no income for Wall Street, which thrives off the herd busily churning away capital, chasing the latest hot rotation into (in our case, residential property 'investments').....every asset goes down when massive credit/asset bubbles pop because "good" assets get sold to cover margin calls as "bad" assets plummet and debts have to be serviced or paid down.... That's the downside of a financial system that is completely dependent on debt and leverage for its survival: the asset valuations can collapse, but the debts remain and can only be cleared by bankruptcy / liquidation / insolvency. "

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly24/great-unwinding7-24.html

by sgtshortcut | 1st Aug 24, 10:59am 1722466788

Does the tinfoil hat keep your head warm in winter?

by morphyoss | 1st Aug 24, 10:59am 1722466742

Why don't they break out Christchurch into districts?

by wingman | 1st Aug 24, 11:24am 1722468245

When I read all these bearish comments about how bad the property market is, I know I made the right decision to buy another one a while back.

by ex agent | 1st Aug 24, 11:50am 1722469837

So you keep telling us. The more often you do that the more we think you are worried about your purchase.

by wingman | 1st Aug 24, 12:04pm 1722470683

Not at all, I've got a house to build. The builder's so busy he's had to take on 2 more chippies.

The market might be tanking in some places, but not all.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 7:30pm 1722497450

lets hope your builders trust account is secure

by Nzdan | 1st Aug 24, 12:17pm 1722471454

Yeah I find it hard to believe Wingman is genuinely enthusiastic about his purchase, if he were then he'd not feel the need to continually seek validation from a bunch of nobodies on interest.co. Certainly may have sounded like a good idea at the time of purchase, but the council knocked back consent for the huge anchor project he was betting on (Botanic Retirement Village) so he's resorted to talking about how Riverhead forest would become a dam/recreational park.

If he were merely gloating about building a McMansion to live out his final days then all power to him, but claiming it's a suburb with huge uplift potential? Maybe in 20 years time.

by wingman | 1st Aug 24, 1:19pm 1722475176

Been for a drive out there recently?

It's chaos - roadworks, building, new subdivisions, school extension, massive new retirement village under construction, new intersections...it's manic. And it's only the beginning.

You know how the Rothschilds got rich? Buying when everyone said sell.

by Zwifter | 1st Aug 24, 2:00pm 1722477657

I guess time will tell. I can point you in the direction of areas down here that looked like they were going to take off and then flopped. Roading and traffic congestion is a dream crusher and in 10 years time when there are still empty sections you get the picture.

by wingman | 1st Aug 24, 2:37pm 1722479841

Not when 3 of NZ's biggest construction companies own hundreds of acres of land.

It's Catch-22, a movie I'm actually watching today. No more construction until there's better roading, but no more roading until there's more construction.

Where's 'down here'?

by vman | 1st Aug 24, 2:40pm 1722480041

Best way to suppress house prices...flood the market with supply..."hundreds of acres of land"

by Zwifter | 1st Aug 24, 4:29pm 1722486586

Its only going to fly if they build houses and people buy them. Take somewhere like Omokoroa, way better location than Riverhead, more like Whangapparaoa on an ocean peninsula but the road into the Tauranga CBD is a total nightmare. Look its pretty simple, Riverhead is a gamble, there is always a bit of luck picking picking the next big thing.

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 7:18pm 1722496704

Riverhead has no train and no park and ride......

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 11:59am 1722470377

why not a few more here and now then?

by Joker | 1st Aug 24, 1:11pm 1722474691

Where is the Christchurch breakdown? Just because it hasn't slid like the other 2 main centres or no data? Strange either way

by The Man3 | 1st Aug 24, 5:43pm 1722490995

ChCh market as I have stated many times is the most stable market in NZ and currently there are plenty of opportunities if you want thrm.

Profits are in the buying well and improving as buying to rent out makes no sense whatsoever.

That is why rents are increasing in ChCh due to increase in rates and insurance’s.

Not difficult to raise rents by 10% and plenty of takers.

The damage Labour has done to Tenants and Landlords is significant.

by CN - new | 1st Aug 24, 3:49pm 1722484194

For those interested, here's a look at the magnitude of the residential real estate price drops in China in the last 2-3 years. Given the magnitude of the price drops, there will be many negative equity situations.

https://youtu.be/7GoroDrPwYE?si=Z4Q026Z9mjjgeSUv&t=261

The bigger the party, the bigger the hangover

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 7:30pm 1722497400

“Bring us a pitcher of beer every seven minutes until somebody passes out. And then bring one every ten minutes.”

Looks to me that the NZ bar is closed, no more free drinks

by IT GUY | 1st Aug 24, 7:53pm 1722498826

These people lost the plot, once they got told not to rent out (ie get yield) because they could devalue the potential capital gain by it being 2nd hand they divorced any sane valuation methodology.....

it was a 100% unoccupied no cash flow investment?

None of the people on the video look that smart.... bag holders

luckily we stopped at top it up stupidity

by CN - new | 1st Aug 24, 9:02pm 1722502976

"None of the people on the video look that smart.... bag holders"

Most owner occupier buyers globally are unaware when house price risks are elevated.

In property bubbles, much of the collateral damage are the recent owner occupier buyers.

e.g Japan 1980's, Hong Kong 1997, Singapore 1997, US 2006, Ireland 2006, Spain 2006, NZ 2021, etc

by CN - new | 2nd Aug 24, 6:25am 1722536707

Developer puts up all 5 properties for sale in their development

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/latest-news/south-auckland-developer-put…

Are they under time pressure from their lender?