Spring finally arrives in the auction rooms with a big jump in activity

Property / news

More properties being offered at auction and more are selling under the hammer

21st Sep 24, 6:30am by Greg Ninness

Spring appears to have finally arrived in the auction rooms, with a big lift in the number of residential properties on offer at the latest auctions, and a jump in the number being sold under the hammer.

Altogether 320 residential properties were offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz over the week of 14-20 September, up from 230 the previous week.

That was the first time more than 300 properties a week have gone under the hammer in more than two months.

Of those, 139 were sold under the hammer, compared to 94 the previous week.

That took the overall sales rate to 43%.

The sales rate has been slowly but steadily increasing for the last six weeks.

Over winter it was consistently in the 30% to 33% range, but has pushed up past 40% in the last few weeks.

The big increase in auction room activity over the last week has been mainly centered on Auckland.

The boost in activity is not unexpected as sales activity generally starts to pick up at this time of year.

However it seems buyers remain cautious on price, with just over a third of the properties sold fetching prices that equaled or exceeded their rating valuation.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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110 Comments

by Yvil | 21st Sep 24, 6:59am 1726858752

100% of the sales in Marlborough sold under RV.

by Retired-Poppy | 21st Sep 24, 7:26am 1726860380

100% of the sales in Marlborough sold under RV.

Look more carefully, there were no sales in Marlborough.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Sep 24, 2:59pm 1726887578

Well I got the joke, Yvil.

by DMC45 | 21st Sep 24, 3:15pm 1726888551

Same. Very droll.

by Yvil | 21st Sep 24, 6:37pm 1726900670

Good on you guys, I was wondering if someone was silly enough to bite, but no one did.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 23rd Sep 24, 9:31am 1727040697

Dunno. RP posted the obvious and got 13 thumbs up. That makes 13 or 14 'sillies'.

by NZGecko | 21st Sep 24, 8:45am 1726865111

When the hell are the now very delayed and new Auck RVs out?

I'm keen to see the spectre of the -25% nominal drops crystallise on the gaunt faces of the nefarious spruiker community!

This would be nearly -45% REAL terms LOSS, as inflation has roared since 2021 and housing has been the absolute worst inflation hedge, in the history of mankind.

NZ property still has another -15 to -25% nominal, still to drop, as the only stimulus will be if mortgage rates go below 3%..... or yields all go above 6%. Pick your poison VERY CAREFULLY Spruikers!!

The downdraught in house prices is well entrenched!

Gold has been the BEST and Ole Painter and Wingers antiGOLDbug - wobbleism, has not aged well AT ALL!!

Gold is on the biggest and most epic run northwards, in decades!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities

The force is strong in the AU and AG market. An unstoppable loaded Bullion BULLtrain, now the FED is trimming the rates a little......

Tony A and Ash C (+Painter and Winger) will need to go into a safe house (one of their more obscure rentals perhaps??) or witness protection hiding.....as their bad and always "strong and wrong" house buying advice, has put tens of thousands into the poorhouse and bankruptcy.

Where has the FMA been all the while they spruiked their self serving, own selfish vested interest pocket books? - sucking in the many good, bad and foolish souls, into stupid and speculative rental investments?? Where was the FMA???

by Pragmatist | 21st Sep 24, 9:05am 1726866339

NZ property still has another -15 to 25% nominal, still to drop,

Yeah, that's right there alongside "10% by Xmas gurunteeed!!!"

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 9:36am 1726868218

Bit like people saying prices would be up 10% this year?

by NZGecko | 22nd Sep 24, 6:49am 1726944542

The +10% gains in 2024, were promised by Tony Alexander and all the Oneroof / ZB property vested interest contributors.

Now we all know -10% losses are more likelyin FY 2924 and a total of 6 years of negative market losses is likely, given the international analogue of similar situations, or will NZ be worse????

They just give really bad, selfish vested interest, selfish ticket clipping advice.

Some gumbies/financially inept NZers would extend and leverage themselves stupidly and dangeriously on the SO CALLED "independent economist " advice. One financialy hiccup and the are stuffed, sometimes forced to sell the house/"investment" at life changing losses.

With capital losses being more likely in the future, buyers should look at the longterm value curve along with the average wage inflation curve and discount substantially on any future offers.

FHBs especially, don't be the housing speculators useful idiot or fall guy!

by Pragmatist | 21st Sep 24, 9:50am 1726869024

When the hell are the now very delayed and new Auck RVs out?

At least that will stop the endless DGM comments about how many sold under the nonsense RVs set at the height of the 2021 fomo sugar rush.

by agnostium | 21st Sep 24, 11:05am 1726873511

Only 10% of properties offered in Auckland sold for over RV.

But it's pretty meaningless as they could have sold for $1 more, had a whole Reno done, etc...

What would be more interesting is how much under the ones that sold under RV sold for.

by Blackbeard | 21st Sep 24, 9:57am 1726869428

Guarantee they’ll come out early next year - surprise, surprise, no change in cv. Oh, coincidentally with drop in ocr. The council won’t want to be on the receiving end of devaluing rate payers assets.

by Pragmatist | 21st Sep 24, 10:27am 1726871224

Take the tinfoil hat off, the valuation date is set as 1 May 2024, so the RV will be the value as at that date.

https://opteonsolutions.com/nz/insights/auckland-council-revaluation

They'll be at least a month away as they'll still need to be audited by the Valuer general.

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 11:48am 1726876097

I think they are having trouble coming up with the numbers due to the house price volatility. The new RV's were delayed in Tauranga due to "Covid" or some rubbish, more like the fact that prices were roaring off to the moon. If they wait another 6 months in Auckland, prices will be increasing again and you end up with a new RV that's closer to the old one.

by 26@Main | 22nd Sep 24, 11:30am 1726961406

The usual nonsense from you, Tauranga's RVs were delayed by a month and it was nothing to do with prices, it was due to COVID.

Tauranga City Council Transactional Services Manager, Jim Taylor, says the Valuer-General has extended the revaluation timeframe due to the COVID-19 lockdown. Revaluation notices would usually be sent out in November. However, due to these delays, property owners will receive the new valuations from 20 December, if the valuations are approved” Mr Taylor says.

by Iceman | 21st Sep 24, 3:29pm 1726889367

Nz gecko. Zip it clown.

by NZGecko | 21st Sep 24, 5:50pm 1726897804

I smell some Icy cold leverage and cold rental property "Topup" sweats.

I'm sure there are pills for these ills? - maybe not......just deleverage and take your hero Tony Alexander to the FMA, for his bad, bad advice?

by Retired-Poppy | 21st Sep 24, 6:32pm 1726900321

😆🤣

by Zaphod The Flatulant | 23rd Sep 24, 12:48pm 1727052518

When the hell are the now very delayed and new Auck RVs out?

Just in time to make a little early Christmas present in December.

PS They aren't delayed.

by Sam Bridgman-Smith | 21st Sep 24, 7:35am 1726860901

One plump auction result doth not a housing recovery make…

by Houses Overpriced | 21st Sep 24, 9:43am 1726868590

Vendors getting realistic about meeting the market

by Harvey W | 21st Sep 24, 7:36am 1726860968

Yay, house prices are going to rise 10% soon, great time to buy. Will it be 75, or 100 point reduction in the OCR before the end of the year?

by Amokk | 21st Sep 24, 7:37am 1726861069

"Yay, house prices are going to rise 10% soon," did you forget the /s?

by NZGecko | 21st Sep 24, 8:37am 1726864623

Wrong.

You living still in the post 2021 world???

Only a 400bps RBNZ drop, will arrest the vertical drop and terminal decline in house prices.

by easymoney | 21st Sep 24, 8:34am 1726864448

Knowing Adrian Orr like I do.... This might actually happen.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Sep 24, 3:05pm 1726887942

While he (actually 'they', the MPC) simultaneously drops DTIs down to sensible (and restrictive) levels ... ???

by live4ever | 21st Sep 24, 8:38am 1726864736

Why yay? We are still quite unaffordable by world standards. Why do you wish pain upon future generations?

by NZGecko | 21st Sep 24, 8:51am 1726865464

Harvey Wiener has both a Movie and Rental stock to sell. Don't take his bait.......his revered Ponzi is in tatters and falling in value with each Year on Year decline.

Future affordability is coming, wait till 2027 to 2028 to get a reasonable deal from a very Ponzi drunk and beaten up ole Wiener.....

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 9:34am 1726868052

Because the value of one persons property portfolio (ie wealth) is more important than creating the opportunity of prosperity and security for future generations.

by Advisor | 21st Sep 24, 10:24am 1726871059

An old Greek proverb goes something like - "A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they shall never sit".

We're clearly seeing the opposite of that play out here fuelled by greed and disregard for the wellbeing of others.

People in this country then look at stats on crime, homelessness, poverty, mental illnesses and delude themselves into believing not enough "public investments" in these areas are causing this sharp decline in society.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 12:04pm 1726877050

What is playing out aligns very closely to the theory from the ‘4th turning’.

By late 2020’s we will hopefully have some stability again as the boomer generation are out of the way politically and who like policies that prioritise self interest over common good.

by TronMVP | 21st Sep 24, 12:14pm 1726877670

Boomerphobia is strong in the comments section on this site.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 1:16pm 1726881378

Does the boomer phobia strike a nerve there TronMVP? I don’t dislike boomers, nor have any phobias around them, but like any generation they comes with both features and bugs. If you mention the bugs you have ‘boomer phobia’ apparently.

Should we instead bash the silent generation for being too passive or the millennials for being entitled brats? And then say look at the phobias people have about these generations.

by TronMVP | 21st Sep 24, 3:21pm 1726888883

I'm not keen on any of the phobias such as xenophobia, homophobia (just to name a couple). One commenter recently talked about euthanasia for Boomers after age 70!

And no, I'm not a Boomer.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 8:49pm 1726908574

Yeah the euthanasia remark went too far in my opinion. Hopefully it got removed by editors.

Otherwise I think we should be able to robustly argue about the pros and cons of differences between groups in a fair and respectful manner.

by Nzdan | 21st Sep 24, 2:09pm 1726884543

Well the Boomers are the only generation to pull up the ladder behind them. The Silent Generation worked extremely hard to build a society that gave Boomers a good shot at life.

As a result, the Boomers felt like it was done for them personally and became very entitled, a bit like a silver spoon mentality. It's why they've hoarded al the wealth, monetized everything they could get their grubby mitts on and heavily underinvested in infrastructure. And they have the gall to think they're entitled to a pot worth $20b p.a. of taxpayer money for reaching age 65?

by wingman | 21st Sep 24, 5:28pm 1726896512

From someone who's probably failed at everything he's done and got a real chip on his shoulder.

by Nzdan | 21st Sep 24, 6:48pm 1726901292

From someone who's so hugely insecure that he feels the need to compensate by incessantly sharing their semi-fictional autobiography with a bunch of strangers on a financial news website.

by marewa | 21st Sep 24, 6:35pm 1726900533

Gen X here. I see most of the day to day activity pumping the ponzi from Gen X and Millenials more than Boomers.

However the seed of this IMHO goes back before the Covid printing frenzy to the CDO ponzie of the naughties, which really got going after the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act. Thanks Bill Clinton.

Lowering the cost of money to zero, in order to inflate the US Banks debts away, driving asset prices to the moon has ruined us. Let's hope this madness ends soon.

The local ticket clippers of course, were the Big4, the vested interests in the likes of Granny Herald, and the agents getting paid to sell baby sell. However I know many fine people in the media, banking and agency world. Does it really hold true that people of a certain age are responsible for this disastrous position we find ourselves in?

by TronMVP | 21st Sep 24, 7:03pm 1726902225

Well said.

Some of the rhetoric here is bordering on hate speech, and there is so much generalization going on. Like you said, much of the investment in property over the past 20 years has come from Gen X and Millenials.

by Nzdan | 21st Sep 24, 7:21pm 1726903286

Bordering on hate speech? I thought this level of melodrama only happened at anti-Trump rallies.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 8:46pm 1726908395

In 2024 positions or narratives you dislike = hate speech - primarily if your are from the political left.

If you’re a modem day leftie any narrative that doesn’t align with your own version of truth is called mis or disinformation (or hate speech) and needs to be censored - even if this removes one’s right to express an opinion.

(clearly if you are threatening to kill somebody or break the law then this isn’t ok).

Saying that boomers might have made a mess of things the last 40 years that they have been the dominant voting demographic = borderline hate speech!

by TronMVP | 21st Sep 24, 10:00pm 1726912858

"They've hoarded all the wealth and monetorized all they could get their grubby mitts on" was what one commenter wrote. That is different from your comment of "Boomers might have made a mess of things over the past 40 years".

I'm not a lefty and I agree with free speech. I'm just saying that some people's comments (certainly not yours) are borderline. You are respectful and reasonable in your comments, even those comments with which I disagree.

by Nzdan | 21st Sep 24, 11:06pm 1726916773

Is my comment directed towards the wrong generation?

I thought I directed it towards a generation that were tough as nails and pulled themselves up by the bootstraps, why the emotions?

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 8:42pm 1726908145

Can you back these assertions up with data? If so I’d happily concede the point to you.

Otherwise you’ve just made a generalisation like everyone else (with you second sentence) which would make your point highly hypocritical.

by Nzdan | 21st Sep 24, 7:18pm 1726903104

You haven't had a read of RBNZ C31 then. It's not so bad now, but if you go back to 2015 FHB took out $7.2b across 22k borrowers. Investors took out $22b in loans across 66k borrowers. So 3 x Investors to FHB. 2023 was FHB $1.2b x 26k borrowers, Investors $0.9b x 21k borrowers.

So what you're saying is Millenials made up a good chunk of these investor loans?

by marewa | 21st Sep 24, 8:45pm 1726908331

Nzan, that is not quite what I am saying at all, I am saying that the majority of boomers are out of the workforce or close to it, and that the day to day selling, advertising and funding of this debacle are carried out by people still in the workforce.

I believe that the RBNZ C31 series, while excellent, does not get granular enough with the blanket 'investor' term to identify the age demographic sufficiently. Perhaps you could help us break that investor lump into Boomer, X, Millenial or whatever. Yes the FOMO driven urge to find revenue in housing rather than widget makers has been a collosal disaster driven by spinners, and perpetrated against all generations alive and probably those yet to be born.

I am also saying that this outrageous level of price to incomes has its origins in the drive to lower interest rates after 2008.

by Nzdan | 21st Sep 24, 11:01pm 1726916506

What does being out of the workforce have to do with investing in property? How many downsizers have released a ton of cash, and up until 2021 had the choice of a 2% term deposit or leveraging that into a few rental properties?

How many Boomers that owned their own home + maybe 1 or 2 rentals realized they could suddenly magic a deposit or 3 out of thin air to put down on a rental property without selling? You think the investor lump is driven by Millenials working 80 hours a week saving a deposit while paying rent?

by Norm | 22nd Sep 24, 11:52am 1726962729

I think the question was asked, very politely, do you have data to back up your assertions? As to your second paragraph, how many boomers didn't? You're a boomer hater, it comes across in many of your comments. Your other comments are great and really informative though.

by Nzdan | 22nd Sep 24, 12:14pm 1726964071

Marewa made the initial claim it was Gen-X & Millenials pumping the ponzi. I've questioned their claim by pointing out RBNZ C31 numbers particularly around investors vs FHB. What's more likely? Gen-X/Millenials or Boomers contributing to this investor activity? Home ownership rates may provide a clue.

I agree, my comments often come across as Boomer hating. As a collective cohort they've stuffed the country for future generations. You're welcome to challenge the content of these comments rather than resorting to Ad Hominem. But thanks for the kudos.

by funkymonk | 21st Sep 24, 2:41pm 1726886515

I would imagine if you talked to many of the wealthy boomers ( I am generation X) they would tell you they are indeed doing this by providing a substantial inheritance to their children.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 2:51pm 1726887099

And for the children who don’t have wealthy boomer parents to pay for their houses - how are they meant to make a start in this country? I guess they aren’t meant to, hence why many have been leaving.

by safeashouses | 22nd Sep 24, 7:04am 1726945456

@like me. I have no boomer parents and self made, honest, worry about yourself and your kids, be a good human - thats all you can do - if you want to chance society start with yourself and if there is something left over be a pillar in your community. Complaining with no action is not an attrative trait.

by wingman | 22nd Sep 24, 8:27am 1726950424

Kiwi kids can go to Aussie if they like, but they're going to find it's exactly the same there. In Brisbane and Sydney it's probably worse.

Both my kids live in Aussie, and I check out the property prices when I visit.

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 9:06am 1726866405

75bps total before Christmas.

by Pragmatist | 21st Sep 24, 9:46am 1726868802

Yep, that's looking highly likely, and a slim chance it could be 100bps by Xmas.

Adrian and Co finally heard Bitchin Betty screaming "Terrain, pull up, Terrain, pull up"

by TronMVP | 21st Sep 24, 12:16pm 1726877782

Yep, it looks like a toss up between 75 and 100bps.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Sep 24, 3:13pm 1726888382

With the US Fed starting with 0.5% - while their economy is still relatively healthy and growing - the RBNZ may decide 0.75% isn't nearly enough.

And I'd agree. We should be just a few pips above the OCR neutral rate by now. (Worst RBNZ ever! I think I've mentioned that?)

by MikeM | 21st Sep 24, 8:52am 1726865544

Here we go again. $2 million mortgages coming to a town near you.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Sep 24, 3:14pm 1726888442

Depends what the RBNZ does with LVRs and DTIs as they cut the OCR.

by TronMVP | 21st Sep 24, 7:19pm 1726903175

This is exactly what DTIs and LVRs are so important. Noone should have a 2 million mortgage on their home. Well, except for maybe 0.5% of the population.

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 9:04am 1726866260

Just back from a cruise round the Pacific, you wouldn't know we are in a recession. As predicted sales will pickup now towards summer and another 50bps cut in rates is coming and another 25bps before Christmas. Now is the time to buy people, you have a couple of months left.

by HouseMouse | 21st Sep 24, 9:19am 1726867160

The winter was the time to buy

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 9:33am 1726867988

Pretty much the same as last year but for different reasons. Clearly rates are now on a downward trend.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 9:35am 1726868139

So is the economy (on a downward trend)

by Nifty1 | 21st Sep 24, 10:49am 1726872550

What a spruiker HouseMouse...

by HouseMouse | 21st Sep 24, 11:56am 1726876561

Lol

People are completely free to ignore my views. I think rapid OCR cuts will stabilise the market, before starting to rise reasonably significantly from this time next year once the OCR is south of 3%

I am also speaking from my own experiences. I bought into B. Hickey’s opinion back in 2008/2009 that prices would fall 25%. They didn’t, and I missed out on an opportunity. And it wouldn’t be until 2019 that I could finally buy

but people need to make up their own minds, there’s certainly no certainty

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 12:07pm 1726877250

It’s a difficult one because like the boy that cried wolf, one day the wolf might really appear. And your theory at present is to ignore the boy crying wolf because he was wrong in the past.

You might be right but you could also be terribly wrong (and so could I..)

by OldSkoolEconomics | 21st Sep 24, 4:51pm 1726894306

Interesting angle. And quite right. History is littered with people who thought things wouldn't change and lost the shirt on their back....

Kodak and cameras

Blockbuster and video shops

Germany and petrol cars

Nz and real estate prices doubling every 10 years

Sooner or later your cheese gets moved. And we are in a period of unprecedented change.

by wingman | 21st Sep 24, 5:49pm 1726897773

Wouldn't think so, kiwis love real estate. Do it right and you can make heaps.

by Small Kev | 21st Sep 24, 7:56pm 1726905410

“Interesting angle. And quite right. History is littered with people who thought things wouldn't change and lost the shirt on their back....

Kodak and cameras

Blockbuster and video shops

Germany and petrol cars

Nz and real estate prices doubling every 10 years

Sooner or later your cheese gets moved. And we are in a period of unprecedented change.”

Interesting perspective, but I think it’s a bit of an overreach. If we’re going by that logic, we could also say that people will never stop consuming alcohol, or that real estate will always be a reliable way to accumulate wealth. Some trends are more deeply ingrained and enduring than others.

by JimboJones | 21st Sep 24, 2:17pm 1726885052

Agree. Once buying becomes competitive with renting again, people will start buying. The smart people will get in before that. But this is assuming the RBNZ continues easing and inflation doesn’t make a comeback.

by Averageman | 21st Sep 24, 11:08am 1726873707

Ok. Sooo....how many spec boxes did you buy, or are you already at your debt ceiling from 7x dti...?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Sep 24, 3:18pm 1726888717

HM: "The winter was the time to buy."

Checks yields .... Nope.

Checks future and current supply ... Nope.

Checks all future demand factors (including the vastly overstated, i.e. spruiked, affects of immigration) ... Nope.

Sorry, beg to differ.

by HouseMouse | 22nd Sep 24, 3:53pm 1726977210

I am talking about FHBs, not investors. I didn’t make that clear. But it goes without saying, as I have said many times, that residential property investment is a dud.

I know a couple of FHBs who got excellent deals over the last few months. While prices won’t increase much over the next 6-9 months, I suspect these sorts of great buys won’t be as common.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 23rd Sep 24, 9:40am 1727041208

"I am talking about FHBs, not investors. I didn’t make that clear."

You don't need to make the distinction. If 'investors' sit on their hands the - as we've seen - and FHBs play it cool - as we've also seen - the inevitable will continue. Even if further OCR cuts result in FHBs being able to 'afford' asking prices, many FHBs are still not in any rush as renting remains cheaper, the best I think we'll see is price 'stabilization' for quite a few years. You know, like post-GFC.

by Hastings | 21st Sep 24, 12:17pm 1726877866

The key rule of every tourist dependent economy is to simulate optimism no matter how dire the economic circumstances.

by Blackbeard | 21st Sep 24, 9:51am 1726869094

Mr O, flush out those TDs - get them kiwis all debted up. You can call it Loved up.

by agnostium | 21st Sep 24, 11:03am 1726873416

by agnostium | 21st Sep 24, 11:07am 1726873635

https://www.green-acres.fr/en/properties/house/carcassonne/Aujf6dlxxvw4…

Check out what you can get in a beautiful area of France next to UNESCO world heritage site compared to alright house in Remers, Orakei and North Shore.

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 11:52am 1726876370

Yeah but you have to start paying people to look after it. The costs of running a place like that are huge, no thanks. France is also going to the dogs along with most of Europe.

by TronMVP | 21st Sep 24, 12:09pm 1726877363

Plus property taxes, local taxes, maintenance costs (it's 19th Century) plus probably all sorts of hidden costs!

by Zachary Smith | 21st Sep 24, 12:20pm 1726878041

Every day people risk their lives crossing the English Channel trying to escape from France.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 1:09pm 1726880978

And they are the type of people that France wouldn’t want to keep anyway so what is your point?

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 2:15pm 1726884952

The point is if you are prepared to die crossing the channel in a rubber boat not fit to float in one of those pools, then France must be pretty bad.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 2:44pm 1726886674

No Africa or the Middle East must be pretty bad - ie where these illegal immigrants came from.

And the more that leave France for the UK, without the French needing to pay to deport them, is probably a net benefit to France (ie the opposite of Zachery Smiths initial point).

by Colin Cameron | 22nd Sep 24, 7:40am 1726947626

agnostium also CGT also death duties also alot of refugees and alot of political uncertainty the lists goes on but by all means you trot off there and fill your boots

by agnostium | 22nd Sep 24, 1:47pm 1726969621

CGT, death duties sounds great. Refugees no issue with them, there are going to be a lot more in the comings years as the consequences of climate change increasingly bite. Political uncertainty is also standard and actually pretty healthy.

by safeashouses | 21st Sep 24, 12:22pm 1726878173

Finally…. I wonder what will happen when OCR is dropped 1% before end of the year that’s my GUESS by the way…. Market will at least stabilise…. One swallow does not make a summer however it’s good to see the little critter

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 1:17pm 1726881449

‘Market will at least stabilise’

In your opinion - you make this sound like a fact. But it isn’t a fact. My opinion (but not a fact) is that the more that the RBNZ have to drop rates the more trouble the economy is in and the more downside pressure there will be on housing as businesses fail and jobs are lost.

by safeashouses | 22nd Sep 24, 7:08am 1726945680

Sure in my opinion, it is as valid as yours..... yes its not a fact and we cant see the future - dropping the OCR in my opinion is a good thing - i dont quite see your logic that a drop interest are going to make things worse - I would have through if OCR drop there will be more money in households and they can spend money in/on failing busisness' . Its my opinion as you rightly said

by ChrisOfNoFame | 22nd Sep 24, 1:42pm 1726969339

safeashouses: "Sure in my opinion, it is as valid as yours."

I_O writes plenty of well reasoned stuff that aligns with the bulk of my studies in economics, ergo their opinion is more valid than yours.

With regards ...

"I would have through if OCR drop there will be more money in households and they can spend money in/on failing busisness [sic]"

... this is pub-economics at its finest. It is a correct statement. But without quantification, it is wildly misleading and wrong. Jfoe points this out in many posts. In a nutshell, the trivial drops in the OCR will NOT be anywhere like enough to pull the good ship NZ Inc off the rocks.

by safeashouses | 23rd Sep 24, 12:00pm 1727049620

@CON - well please enlighten me what will save the economy? And why have we not done it? I feel we on the right track. As per my simple mind two cuts of a percentage is a step in the right direction - at least I will have a few more bob to spend in the pub for my pub economics haha

by The Man3 | 21st Sep 24, 1:53pm 1726883621

Just back from Europe and It is now very expensive in most parts!

I can assure you that NZ is now going better than it was when the last lot were controlling!

NZ house prices are still cheap compared to what you get overSeas.

Auckland prices have dropped and will remain a bit weak for awhile compared to where they were, but there are other places such as ChCh where they are stable and are looking like they are increasing once again.

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 2:19pm 1726885150

Good luck in convincing the DGM's on this site. It wont be until the tear gas and the bullets start flying that they finally realise how good they had it.

by Zachary Smith | 21st Sep 24, 3:38pm 1726889904

Welcome home, The Man3, you are the most down to earth commenter here.

by JimboJones | 21st Sep 24, 2:23pm 1726885403

Nothing beats a recession more than nice sunny weather. We’ve had enough gloom now, I’m picking this is the bottom of the property market and the economy.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 2:49pm 1726886953

Recession hasn’t even started and you’ve called the bottom.

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 3:06pm 1726887994

Well you need to put a date on when you think the bottom will be, anyone can make a call with hindsight.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Sep 24, 6:32pm 1726900379

I don’t have to put a date on anything! And anyone who thinks they can is a fool.

Im guessing you picked the exact date of the top back in 21 as well and the subsequent falls given you always know exactly when the market turns - just as you know for sure that this is the bottom?

If one were to go back through the comments I guess I should be able to find you advising others that the top was in an few years ago and that we had a few years of price falls ahead of us? I think not, so I don’t know why anyone would give you any merit for calling this as the bottom.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 21st Sep 24, 3:26pm 1726889160

Hasn't studied housing slumps either. Seems few learnt anything much from the GFC.

by Greeneggsandham | 21st Sep 24, 5:09pm 1726895383

I also don’t think it’s the bottom yet. I’m expecting a limp summer selling season, albeit with some noise in the data, then another round of excuses from the economists as to why the turn around is just around the corner.

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 3:05pm 1726887934

Yep I'm calling it, you will look back at Christmas and this will be the bottom.

by NZGecko | 21st Sep 24, 3:13pm 1726888410

Getting sick of the multiple Dead Cat bounces you been constantly calling since early 2023 Zwiffy!! Its getting old, repetitive and stale.

Pull the other one buddy, it squirts whisky!

by Greeneggsandham | 21st Sep 24, 5:18pm 1726895928

You were right on the timing of the rate cuts, I will definitely give you that. I expect the market to rise a bit given the volume of sales that will occur over spring and summer, so yes, Christmas will give the illusion of a bottom, but it won’t be a floor and we will watch prices fall through it by the following winter.

by wingman | 21st Sep 24, 5:46pm 1726897565

Well this is looking very promising...I have predicted in the past here that the market will pick up by the end of this year or early next year.

Clearance rate where I live...40%....not bad.

by John Mendel | 21st Sep 24, 7:22pm 1726903320

North Shore 60% above RV, quite impressive

by Zwifter | 21st Sep 24, 8:36pm 1726907799

The new RV's dropped up to 11% or so down here so just imagine when the Auckland RV's drop, you could be looking at 80% going above RV.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 22nd Sep 24, 1:50pm 1726969849

Impressive? Only to you.

RVs are a complete 'thumb suck' as far as real value is concerned. And are way out of whack for many areas of the North Shore. And a sample set of just 28 isn't statistically that accurate unless adjusted for the mix of properties that sold. I could go on ...