Big jump in auction numbers as spring arrives with a bang

Property / news

Of the 438 properties on offer at the latest auctions, 192 sold under the hammer

26th Oct 24, 7:01am by Greg Ninness

Spring has arrived with a bang in the auction rooms, with a substantial jump in activity at the latest auctions monitored by interest.co.nz.

Altogether interest.co.nz monitored the auctions of 438 residential properties around the country over the week of 19-25 October.

That was up from 340 auctioned properties the previous week, and 289 the week before that.

Of the 438 properties on offer at the latest auctions, 192 sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 44%.

That means the sales rate has been hovering around 40% to 44% for the last two months.

The latest increase in auction numbers is believed to be due, at least in part, to a couple of so-called mega auctions, where real estate companies compress a large number of auctions into a single event in an effort to lift potential buyer interest.

However while auction numbers are up and sales levels are holding their own, buyers remain cautious on price, with just 31% of the properties that sold at the latest auctions fetching prices equal to or above their most recent rating valuation.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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69 Comments

by safeashouses | 26th Oct 24, 7:13am 1729880001

My goodness - this is a rollercoaster. Anyway I take above as good news. 0.75 drop in November will crank up the volume big time - BNZ 7% prediction growth might be a good one. - I almost hate being right on this website.

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 9:07am 1729886839

Why is it a roller coaster? It’s all pretty predictable

by Averageman | 26th Oct 24, 9:16am 1729887384

Probably a built up pile of sellers and buyers. Throw in a strong signal rate rises are not only over but cuts look most likely, and a sprinkling of mega auctions and "vola"....some agents get paid, and the speculative faithful all rejoice that it's back to the races.

by DDDDebt | 26th Oct 24, 3:32pm 1729909929

If you can predict one thing in 2025, it’s that bank economist predictions will turn out incorrect.

My guess is they will be close to flat if they have stopped falling as a national index

Yves forgot to tell us that his neighbour finally sold their place last month

Paid $2.35m in April 2015

Sold for $2.375m in Sept 2024

Was listed for $2.85m so a chocolate fish goes to the commentator who predicted "around $2.4m” (sorry - can’t remember who this was)

RV was $4.05m

https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/saint-marys-bay/10a-harbour-street…

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Oct 24, 3:03pm 1729908232

That's a 0.12% per year annual return in nominal terms. And owning for 9 years !!! Ouch.

It'd be a fabulous location when every vehicle passing by is an EV.

by Nzdan | 26th Oct 24, 3:16pm 1729908995

Was Chairman Moa.

by Chairman Moa | 20th Aug 24, 11:56am

My thinking is around 2.4m

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/129287/house-prices-continued-tumbl…

by TronMVP | 26th Oct 24, 4:40pm 1729914045

Who is Yves?

by Nzdan | 26th Oct 24, 4:57pm 1729915067

Yvil. I think Yves is a pet name for his pseudonym?

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 6:59pm 1729922384

Yves, a French name pronounced ‘eve’. Hence Yvil, a play on Evil. I think he said it was a childhood nickname

by safeashouses | 27th Oct 24, 6:22am 1729963359

DDDDebt - bought my original house in new windsor for 385k 2 bedroom free standing cross leased sold last year for 860k. Made over 500k. - so the house more than doubled in 10 years.

So yea every bad story has a good story i guess - it worked for me

by False economies | 26th Oct 24, 7:13am 1729880002

To summarise the next 200 comments:

" I told you so! Houses are always a good investment. Buy now"

"Nah, it's a dead cat bounce"

"I told you so! House prices are still dropping. Don't buy now"

🙄

by safeashouses | 26th Oct 24, 7:19am 1729880349

Lets see - usually when the news is 'good' the comments are way less.

by Mypointis | 26th Oct 24, 7:29am 1729880946

Retired poopy will have to have his negative spin.

by Time Lord | 26th Oct 24, 7:55am 1729882539

Can you unpack what the ‘good news’ is in this article?

by safeashouses | 26th Oct 24, 7:59am 1729882796

@timelord IYKYK :)

by tothepoint | 26th Oct 24, 8:59am 1729886399

It’s plausible that the housing market has over-corrected in the downward direction……

If so, there may be some fast / sharp gains in activity over the next few months - especially if further falls in the OCR are waiting in the wings.

Happy Labour Weekend, everyone! 👍🏻😃

TTP

by Time Lord | 26th Oct 24, 10:34am 1729892090

“It’s plausible”, “if so”, “there may”

The spinning words of speculation from the mouth of a convicted fraudster with zero reference to anything in this article.

by tothepoint | 26th Oct 24, 1:45pm 1729903540

......spinning words of speculation......

Alliteration won't offset your malice and lies, Time Lord ......

Clearly, you're of limited mental horizons - but unbounded saltiness.

TTP

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Oct 24, 3:07pm 1729908458

"of a convicted fraudster"?

One notes TTP didn't challenge you on those words. Ergo, they are not in dispute. ... Can you tell us more?

by Time Lord | 26th Oct 24, 7:59pm 1729925941

You can learn more about TTP Tim here: Property Brokers Manawatu and director fined $1.5m in price fixing case

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 8:36pm 1729928211

He has a bit of arrogant chutzpah to keep posting despite all that

by Pragmatist | 26th Oct 24, 8:42am 1729885352

That 192 people that wanted to sell their house did, and 192 people that wanted to buy a house found one at a price they were willing to pay.

by Time Lord | 26th Oct 24, 8:58am 1729886293

Your interpretation of ‘good news’ is not newsworthy.

by Pragmatist | 26th Oct 24, 9:10am 1729887014

Enjoy your weekend of doom and gloom mate.

by danicriss | 26th Oct 24, 8:15am 1729883708

There's no news. It's never news

If one actually wants to make a financial decision based on the sales numbers, they will never make it based on last week's numbers. They will always look at rolling averages and general trend. One week's number is but a blip, upwards or downwards

by sgtshortcut | 26th Oct 24, 7:50am 1729882224

Well played 😂

The beautiful thing with data is that if they spin it the right way then they can all be right too! 🌪

by Mypointis | 26th Oct 24, 7:45am 1729881908

Curious, how does Nelson bays have zero sold but 9% sold?

by bw | 26th Oct 24, 7:59am 1729882770

Fat finger? The "0" is next to the "9" on the keys above the letters on a keyboard.

by Mypointis | 26th Oct 24, 8:03am 1729882993

You would think they would have a spreadsheet but obviously not.

by bw | 26th Oct 24, 7:51am 1729882284

"buyers remain cautious"

And so they should.

Have we all seen the price of Gold against the falling NZ$ this morning? NZ$4,587.58 - way above the recent All-Time High. And we know what that is screaming at us, don't we?!

Yep. Rampant Inflation is headed all of our ways, and we also know what the only remedy to that is - a much higher cost of Debt. Interest Rates, mortgage rates, are going to soar, as they did the last time Inflation escaped. And not the escape of the last couple of years, that saw some countries at +10% CPI increase, but the 30% ones of 40 years ago.

So. Buy whatever you want, by all means - just don't use OPM - Debt. Because the cost of that is going to take off.

Oh, and if we think the RBNZ and its OCR is going to be the defender of interest rates, then think again. Because the RBNZ will have no choice but to raise rates to defend the currency.

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 8:21am 1729884099

BW why do you think inflation is going to ‘soar’?

And when do you think that will happen?

FWIW, I don’t think it will. But neither do I think we will see deflation

by MacroView | 26th Oct 24, 9:27am 1729888045

The case for inflation to rise, is that at present there is a motherload of liquidity in the financial system globally (look at the current outcome; ie stocks, crypto etc), and several central banks are easing into what could be a nascent melt up. Arguably conditions are not restrictive, albeit not yet overly easy, but the current easing is well on the way to changing that. Gold and bonds are also sending curious signals - I wouldn't say this is necessarily a strong indication one way or the other yet, but this behavior raises a clear question mark.

by Amokk | 26th Oct 24, 7:47am 1729882075

Shhhhh no one mention the facts

Auction numbers are up apparently due to mega auctions consolidating multiple properties in one event.
Only 31% of sold properties met or exceeded their recent valuation.

by safeashouses | 26th Oct 24, 7:57am 1729882625

@Amokk I would think only mega auctions take place if the market can take it - also sales up to 44% from mid 30s last week is good. Anyway no problems - Buy or dont buy all good with me ps buyers should be cautious always because you make your money when you buy - keep being cautious until you not cautious and then FOMO - now we wait

by Snow | 26th Oct 24, 8:15am 1729883717

buyers should be cautious always because you make your money when you buy

How's that working for you at the moment?

by NZGecko | 26th Oct 24, 8:46am 1729885580

Yes .....how's that working out for the tens of thousands that got duped, and crammed en masse into the roller coaster Ddddebt train in the last 5 years??????

Badly, negative equity for tens of thousands and in the event of a required sale.......all their money is gone, finished, finito!

Pls they will still likely owe the bank a wad of cash!

Take care to the current buyers who the spruikers need to step up......to offload their dross "investments".......their stale, doggie doo bags, need passing on.....like old wirely ole fox, Luxy is doing. This ole fox knows when to quit at the top.....

Wars- ongoing and escalating, deglobisation, expensive nearshoriing, trade wars with new and increased tarifs, shipping dangers of goods/oil, will see inflation reignite in 2025.

NZs current infatuation with short term Debt fixing, of large Debts, could be an ultimate self inflicted uppercut, to an already beleaguered and economically numpty mortgage holders......

by safeashouses | 26th Oct 24, 9:38am 1729888700

@NZG - gave you a like again well written and articulate and you are a word smith - true tomment

by gregwani | 26th Oct 24, 10:31am 1729891902

on.....like old wirely ole fox, Luxy is doing. This ole fox knows when to quit at the top.....

Evidently, this is wrong. Surely a wiley fox would have sold in 2021-22, rather than wait for property to fall by ~20%.

There's certainly some truth in your other comments, though it's a far less certain scenario than you imply.

Disinflationary signals from China's slowdown, global ageing, automation, renewables and AI could all counter the inflationary forces.

by NZGecko | 26th Oct 24, 12:06pm 1729897567

Luxy has the "ultimate inside knowledge". The current NZ house pricing is still very high and elevated when measured against NZ incomes.

- Luxy sees that this recent, 6th, dead cat bounce, is the last and in the future, NZ home pricing is going lower, much lower.

Luxy is in the know, more than most and obviously acting on it,......

by safeashouses | 26th Oct 24, 9:41am 1729888865

@snow to be honest its not been great lately - however it will turn again - been in it for a while - at least no one will see my tears of the paper loss' in the pool, ps dont be fooled I am crying in the pool (28 degrees) and real tears - its been a tough lately

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 8:24am 1729884245

Yet recent valuations are typically quite a bit higher than current market values, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.

by 26@Main | 26th Oct 24, 3:49pm 1729910959

Does anyone have evidence of these 'mega' property auctions? The only one I'm aware of was on 2 October at Ray White in Takanini and 15 properties were auctioned according to their Facebook page - doesn't seem that mega. Arguably they could just be a marketing ploy by Ray White to advertise their brand, there was also a 3 week marketing package for $3.5k that vendors could buy in the lead up to the auction so they're a way for them to make extra $ too.

by Zachary Smith | 26th Oct 24, 9:09am 1729886998

I think we can all agree, that if you are in the market to purchase a house and you see something that ticks all the boxes and is a reasonable price, you need to be quick.

For FHBs I would suggest looking for a house that the vendor has owned for a long time and needs a bit of cosmetic work.

Prospective landlords need to be careful that the property can comply with healthy homes standards without too much expense or at least factor that in.

Disclaimer: I am but a humble computer engineer and this is all based on historical observation. Pandemics and WW3 could influence prices up or down. At some point many will have to "roll the dice", hoping world leaders won't "roll the iron dice".

by Jonny.Foe | 26th Oct 24, 9:34am 1729888485

Sorry folks. It's happening. We're going to do it again. Another cycle of mortgage debt driven balance sheet and consumption expansion that we will laughably call 'growth'.

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 9:41am 1729888861

Exactly. Although I think the next ‘leg up’ will be fairly mild.

by tothepoint | 26th Oct 24, 10:03am 1729890201

Not too many DGM showing up here today ......

For sure, they sense the writing is on the wall for them and their idiosyncratic blather.

Predictably, some (like Retired-Poppy) will go into hiding for an extended period of time. Humiliation and embarrassment.

TTP

by Zwifter | 26th Oct 24, 10:22am 1729891372

If he has not gone already he will be packing his bags in November at the next OCR cut.

by Small Kev | 26th Oct 24, 2:52pm 1729907572

“Not too many DGM showing up here today ......”

Maybe they are all busy in/ outside of the auction rooms.

by Retired-Poppy | 26th Oct 24, 6:23pm 1729920207

by tothepoint | 26th Oct 24, 10:03am - Predictably, some (like Retired-Poppy) will go into hiding for an extended period of time. Humiliation and embarrassment.

Ha-ha :), Why all the fuss over my absence? I've been busy helping a friend move. Anyway Tim, given your track record of predictions - I'm a paid up member here and I'm not going anywhere. I enjoy this forum and I have no reasons to feel embarrassed.

The better question is, will you still be commenting on here after 01-March? I know I will be.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Oct 24, 12:10pm 1729897833

Well ...

1. The RBNZ could ratchet down the froth by tightening LVRs & DTIs. Will they though? Hell no. (At least not until it's way too late!)

2. The NZ government could rebalance the tax system to direct capital into productive enterprise. Will they though? Hell no. (Donors are happy, dumb voters are fooled and everyone thinks the good times are here again.)

So yeah. Once again, bang on the money, Jfoe.

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 12:46pm 1729900004

You said something will change

We were all dressed up

Somewhere to go

No sign of rain

But something will change

You promised

You said nothing will change

We were almost near

Almost far

Down came the rain

But nothing will change

You promised

A promise a promise a promise

It’s exactly the same

You said

It’s always the same

But I’ll make it change

Into something the same

I promise

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Oct 24, 12:53pm 1729900407

Echo & the Bunnymen? Saw them live a few times.

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 12:59pm 1729900751

Underrated band. Playing ‘Heaven Up Here’ while cleaning the house. I think the lyrics are quite profound. Mac is an underrated lyricist

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Oct 24, 3:23pm 1729909425

Agreed. E&tBM came to my attention with 'The Cutter'. (yeah. late pick up). I have tons and tons of vinyl from that era played just once (straight onto tape.) Once the majority have figured out how badly we've been served by our elected representatives, hey, it may be worth a fortune. (The Cutter came out in 1983. Margaret Thatcher has been in power for four years.)

by Jonny.Foe | 26th Oct 24, 5:59pm 1729918766

big fan, killing moon is in my top five songs of all time.

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 7:03pm 1729922609

There we go, men of intellect and good taste.

Killing Moon is an amazing, epic song.

I always liked their 5th album, the eponymous one. But not generally rated very highly. It was my entry into them in 1988, as a 16 year old

by Mr Ed | 30th Oct 24, 8:01am 1730228498

I dressed and hopped around like a bunny for years

by Mr Ed | 30th Oct 24, 8:16am 1730229382

🐰scintillating lyrics. Deep , meaningful and timeless

by Speedmax | 27th Oct 24, 7:05pm 1730009120

Exactly right. DTIs too high, and FHBs should get the easier multiple rather than “investors”. Should be 6 for FHB (income of younger buyers likely to grow more over time, and they need a competitive advantage in order to enter the market) and max 5 for everyone else.

Developing productive enterprises is what will provide solid long term economic growth and jobs for future generations, not pumping up the prices of the same houses and crippling most people with debt, which profits only shareholders of Australian banks and the only exports produced are of our young and talented people….So sad. And even sadder that most kiwis can’t see it or actively cheer it on

by MikeM | 26th Oct 24, 9:39am 1729888783

Still only 31% achieving RV though.

by HouseMouse | 26th Oct 24, 9:44am 1729889060

As per my post above, that doesn’t mean much.

Example - my home’s RV is 900k. Two months ago I would say it might sell for 750-800k. Now it might sell for 820k. That sale would be a price lower than RV. Yet the price is clearly higher than it might have been two months ago, indicating prices rising.

by ryanjames | 26th Oct 24, 9:49am 1729889363

Considering RV was issued at the absolute peak of the inflated market, it's actually amazing that a third are achieving those prices.

by Zwifter | 26th Oct 24, 9:54am 1729889643

Correct.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Oct 24, 3:39pm 1729910370

"... it's actually amazing that a third are achieving those prices."

Um. No. It is not amazing at all. These are:

Auction sales (always a few where emotions take over)
Auctions are a fraction of total sales and generally occur only if there is expected to be multiple buyers interested (or sellers insist on an auction)
Council valuations which are wildly variable in their accuracy ... may be by a 3rd?
Make no account of how much the owners have spent enhancing their properties
Buying power has increased since many valuations have been made
not that surprising when one looks at the places getting above RV ... look at a few using Homes and you'll see what I mean

Maybe, were half or more above RVs (and Auckland hadn't delayed their RVs again), then it would peak my interest. Otherwise ... Sorry. Nothing to see here.

One notes the Zwifter and 6 others were fooled. Ho hum. Hopium, ay?

by Zwifter | 26th Oct 24, 9:53am 1729889605

RV's are way out of date, they will be dropping like they did in Tauranga so the 31% will quickly jump higher, especially in Auckland if they ever release the figures. The problem is the wild swings in the market so I would pretty much just ignore the RV. Paid well over the RV when I bought my place, no regrets its now worth $100K over what I paid for it in 2020. The market only moves in one direction if you give it several years to even out on that upward trend line.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 26th Oct 24, 12:52pm 1729900321

"...no regrets its now worth $100K over what I paid for it in 2020."

Funny how often one hears that from self-valued properties.

by Zwifter | 26th Oct 24, 1:35pm 1729902951

One Roof. I wouldn't sell it now if someone knocked on the door and offered me $1M tomorrow. Just not possible to build one like this in the type of location anywhere near that price point.

by Sluggy | 26th Oct 24, 2:49pm 1729907347

So what it's worth is essentially irrelevant is what you are saying.

by Nzdan | 26th Oct 24, 3:30pm 1729909827

He's just playing up the value and "rarity" of his house so please share in his admiration. The house has impressive features and they don't make them like that anymore. It really emphasizes his taste.