REINZ says December was especially quiet and buyers had plenty to choose from as housing inventory surged

RIP recovery.

She suffered a quick and pain free death.

As the Rookiest of wannabe property tycoons would surely know, these once in a 100 year property crashes  (as we have certainly now) take on average, 6 years to play out to the very long, scraping bottom. 

So waiting for 2027, for a much lower priced ledge, that may eventually hold is in 2027, or possibly longer?



In the worst case, such as happened in Japan since 1991, it took 18 years to crash to a 47% loss, but it's much worse, if you account for it in Real Terms, with inflation adding to these massive losses.



Inflation has raged in NZ at a combined +20% since 2020, so if your property has not gone op at least 21%, you have effectively gone backwards in REAL TERMS in the last 5 years.

Property has been the worst of all major investment options, all told, since the never to be seen again high tide preposterous property peak of 2021.  (ok maybe the 2030s, may see a new peak, possibly???)



Those insanely leveraged, talking foolishly about "the bottom is in" or  "the time to buy was last month" or  "the 2023 bottom has passed"  look like totally novice tools, whose TA and AC - like, warped views and narratives, are not worth a garbage can full of stinking and rancid doggy doo.



Watch as the convicted cheaters, schemers and fraudsters in the Real Estate industry, try to polish this terrible, much delayed turd. 

For anyone to listen to these professional "turd polishers" as abounds on the all-encompassing "Buy Now"  Narratives on property pages of the Awful Oneroof and NZ Heralds......you truly need your head read and will be led into financial oblivion, by following such financially self-interested charlatans.



Buyers beware, offer only the 2015 previous price guide/RVs or lower, as 2018 prices are now being hit and seen in the sales reports and its declining at rates not seen, since the Great Depression.

In a falling market buyers have all the time in the world. In fact waiting will likely get you a better price.

The best hope for sellers is that RBNZ keeps trimming.

Looking like another year of catch-up for incomes in relation to house prices.

Interesting that there's static and negative growth in spite of recent interest rate falls. Lags or other factors?

I have to say they gave it a pretty good polish. Where I live which is a very popular NI provincial capital the market is dead especially over $1.5 m or so. I know of several taken off the market as the vendors are totally frustrated as over several months on the market they have not had a single offer. Thank heavens Christchurch is okay. I will sleep tonight.

"limited urgency in the market " LOL

Now, about those Foreign Buyers >$5M....

so the year ended with a 1.1% drop in the HPI, not exactly a crash. I expected a lot worse for 2024.

the past quarter showing improvements in most regions, including Auckland, the most inflated region.

Median house price, excl Auckland actually went up last year.

Definitely noticing down here in Chch that properties are taking longer to sell (with some exceptions). I'm not talking about the rubbish Williams Corp/Wolfbrook townhouses either, or the 'there's always another one waiting' new subdivision builds but older houses in more established areas, or ones that have been purchased and done up to sell ... in fact there's tons of places I've seen where clearly somebody has bought, spent up on upgrading, and now cannot get 'what it owes'.

Interesting time for the dumbthoughts clan as there is a second child on the way, and the current house probably isn't big enough (owing to part of it being used for my business). Also not in a great school area.

There are a few places we've viewed where if the vendor would accept CV (and we would get CV for ours) the cost difference would be worthwhile but the vendors prefer to let the property sit unsold at 10-20% over the CV and the agents inform it's not even worth bothering to make an offer of the CV ... of course they are incentivised to say that but it makes the upgrading house process a total pain. 

forgot to blame the weather. Maybe that's being saved for the next set of results?

I always find interesting the 5 year average price increases, shown in the HPI report.   So the five year average price increase for Auckland is now 2.8%.  So to 'double every 10 years' prices they need to increase by 85% in the next five years.

The regions (NZ exc Auckland) have grown by 5.4%.  What I believe is happening is that industry and population are leaving Auckland. The previous growth in Auckland was supported by poor targeting of accommodation supplement that made industry stay there, but can't afford to any longer.

However, Auckland supply has continued - still building at 15,000 houses per annum. So little chance of price increases in the future 

And remember that even the 5.4% growth over past five years is probably less than the interest rate during that time.

Down, down, down the road,

down the ponzi-crash road. 

There is no reason for the housing market to do anything other than stagnate or continue to fall.

The best and brightest are still heading offshore in droves and the replacements don't have much money.

Many people have been taught a valuable and recent lesson about housing bubbles and the personal consequences of reckless borrowing.

The job market is munted and government spending is still being bought under control.

The asking prices are still ridiculous by any metric.  First world prices for third world housing.

These real estate types need a reality check.  New Zealand housing is a dead horse.

if you a slumlord/hopium/spruiker anything else (which I am)  the worst look like it is behind us - also less properties on the market and lower interest rates - this slumlord spruiker (whatever you would like to call me had done it tough) however with recent drop interest and good tenants outlook is looking better.  Would like to add I do hope this is a better year for all - so if you a DGM i guess you would like it worse?  

Auckland feeling quiet with low confidence. 

It's pretty touch and go isn't it? Have we lost too many jobs / people / businesses for the economy to pull up? Is there a risk of an early 2025 slump back down again?

And, before anyone starts, yes, the housing market is our economy. If we are not increasing mortgage debt significantly each quarter (by around $5bn), then our economy will crash, jobs will evaporate, and we will be back in the mid-2024 doom loop. Every cog, pulley, and piston in our economy relies on private balance sheet expansion.

As expected there was going to be a lot of hype and narrative around rate cuts and the summer selling season, but the data looks pretty weak so far. I am noticing some unsold stock reappearing as new listings this year but still dubious they will get the prices they are seeking, especially around Wellington with the job market. I have been to a couple of open homes recently and there does seem to be more people there, but it’s hard to know if that’s translating to sales. I expect it to continue to bobble up and down and then dive a bit further as it goes into winter. Without some kind of stimulus or policy to boost the market, it’s not looking like taking off anytime soon. It’s looking very much like the 70’s downturn still.

So there are over 60 empty, unsold, brand new townhouses within a few blocks of my home.  How long do you think it will take the market to clear this stock?  Asking for a friend.

North Shore quartet up. 50% cut in Feb. 

Auckland CVs delayed again

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cv-delays-auckland-homeowners-endure-long…

In August 2021 Wanaka got down to 100 listings on Trademe. Right now it's 365 and rising.

Wow, so many new listings coming on now in Auckland - add that to the record high existing listings which means ....

Wow, they obviously needed the extra day or two to create that Bullshit spin!!!!!

Subdued sales should be seen in context.

Basically, looking at Auckland, sales in 2020-22 (36 months) averaged 5,344 pcm

In 2017-19 (36 months) pcm average was 3,027.

That massive surge has to equate to a massive under-performance in order to revert to the mean.

Sales pcm in 2023-24 (24 months) averaged 2662 pcm

As anyone fair will acknowledge, the 2020-22 sales were based on a pipedream of eternal low rates. That will not repeat.

In addition, always left out of account is that the pop of Auckland has risen about 350,000 since 2018. Stats NZ don't do a very good job of estimating pop and housing stock in Auckland. However, it has to be acknowledged that a metric which showed sales per 50k of pop would give a more rounded picture. It is inaccurate and misleading to continue comparing sales over time if the denominator, in terms of total houses in an area, is also not updated periodically.

Auckland sales peaked in about 2004, when the pop was probably a good 500k lower than now.

Price rises are not good except for cap gains, not the "market."

A 40% rise in 2020-22 following the 29% rise in 2016, simply excludes more people from capacity to afford to buy. It also means that unless you have two earners on over $100k, you cannot buy without parental help. And if you do, the couple cannot afford for one to go off on maternity leave for 2-3 years.