QV says 2025 will be 'an intriguing year' for the housing market

Property / news

QV sees some small value increases creeping into the housing market

11th Feb 25, 5:00am by Greg Ninness

Quotable Value (QV) says 2025 is likely to be "an intriguing year" for the housing market.

"The latest QV House Price Index shows that residential property values have once again increased slightly, edging upwards by an average of 1.3% nationally in the January quarter [Nov/Dec/Jan]," QV said in its first report of this year.

"The average home is now worth $913,567, which is just 1.3% less than the same time last year and 14.1% below the market's peak in late 2021," the report said.

"On the surface, we're seeing a continuation in 2025 of the overwhelmingly flat theme that we saw throughout much of last year," QV Operations Manager James Wilson said.

"This is to be expected given the economic factors at play - namely high interest rates and credit constraints, sustained weakness in the labour market and an oversupply of properties for sale."

"However, we are also seeing less home value reductions now, and what little growth there is does appear to be trending ever so slightly upward," he said.

"At the same time, mortgage rates are falling and property sales volumes are building, which could pave the way for more substantial growth later this year."

"That won't happen overnight of course, but we will be actively monitoring this space with interest, as I'm sure many sellers, buyers and investors will be throughout 2025," Wilson said.

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72 Comments

by kraken | 11th Feb 25, 7:35am 1739212502

Didn't we just have this QV Dec 2024 data a few weeks ago?

"QV says average housing values declined by just 0.3% last year with prices remaining 'relatively static'"

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/131529/qv-says-average-housing-valu…

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 7:43am 1739212985

There is one release that keeps saying Auckland is flat yet there previous release shows -4% over last 12 months

Not sure if its QV or RE

by RookieInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 8:47am 1739216861

bbbbbut house prices are supposed to be falling!

Interesting they state high interest rates

This is to be expected given the economic factors at play - namely high interest rates

Does that mean they expect them to fall further than they currently are?

QV website tells a different story again, 1.2% increase over 3 months across NZ

by CrispyKahawai | 11th Feb 25, 9:50am 1739220619

You don’t seem like a jerk at all.

by RookieInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 10:04am 1739221449

/Sarc

by WellingtonInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 2:21pm 1739236882

The thing is that historically the current interest rates are low. I wonder if they are comparing the rates to the emergency low rates during Covid which caused the housing market to go crazy.

by EpsomArtsandCrafts | 11th Feb 25, 10:29am 1739222963

Agree, I would want to do some fact checks on this information as its not in line with Dec quarter info and Barfoots reported a decline in Jan

- this doesn't make sense

by EpsomArtsandCrafts | 11th Feb 25, 3:57pm 1739242621

so QV change is an index right - so not immediately reflect of recent unconditional sales?

and its based on all property listed, sold and unlisted?- rather than recent sales - so not that accurate over recent timeframe - oh OK

Therefore personally I am going to ignore this QV article and wait for the RE data

by Time Lord | 11th Feb 25, 11:44am 1739227475

It looks like the wrong month's table (December) has been added to this article.

On QV's website release they show the January table.

Here's what they are saying about Auckland:

“January has tended to be a very quiet month, possibly due to the summer holidays. Reports from agents have been mixed – some say it is pretty dead, while others think it’s slowly picking up. We should have a better idea of the market by the end of February,” he said.

by kraken | 11th Feb 25, 12:00pm 1739228454

Should be Jan's table, they have December's table in the article.

Jan: https://content.quotablevalue.co.nz/media/images/SMALL_HPI_Graphic_Feb2…

by RookieInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 12:22pm 1739229734

That's interesting, there seems to be a big difference between QV and Barfoot.

Qv showing a 1.4% qtr growth in Auckland whereas,

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 8:23am

Have we already forgotten about the leading Auckland RE latest release?

Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.

From memory the medium was down 50k?

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 1:09pm 1739232575

QV is showing quarterly data.... so it will be slow to react to current situation.

We saw the same thing back when property prices when falling rapidly and QV where well behind the monthly data sets.

by RookieInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 1:37pm 1739234260

Fair.

On QV stats, the quarter to December showed a smaller gain than the quarter to January.

Which suggests either.

October was terrible, or
January was not that bad, or
Either QV or Barfoots data is not accurate.

Am i wrong to think this?

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 1:50pm 1739235031

More likely QV are reporting national data, and obviously BF is Auckland data mainly.

if you look at the little chart 3 areas are negative (and they re small population parts of NZ)

at the bottom of the chart the say 0.1% positive yet in article up 1.3%...

nothing matches

by Pragmatist | 11th Feb 25, 2:00pm 1739235619

The table shown on interest is the December table, go read the January table linked a couple of comments up

by RookieInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 2:07pm 1739236027

"The latest QV House Price Index shows that residential property values have once again increased slightly, edging upwards by an average of 1.3% nationally in the January quarter [Nov/Dec/Jan],"

I assume the 1.3% is for Auckland, but the article says nationally, quite confusing.

Edit: yes correct January's table shows 1.3%

by Pragmatist | 11th Feb 25, 1:56pm 1739235404

QV and barfoots are totally different data sets. Barfoots is only sales, QV is all properties.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 2:01pm 1739235698

what do you mean by all properties vs a signed unconditional sale?

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 2:16pm 1739236597

I get it, their values are

theoretical values

not based on what people are actually paying (though their is likely a corelation) , will treat this data with that knowledge going forward.. see below

Auckland

All bar one of the Super City’s seven former local council areas recorded a small rise in average home value this quarter.

The largest gains occurred this quarter on the North Shore (2.6%), in Auckland’s central suburbs (1.8%) and in Manukau (1.8%). Papakura was the lone exception; its average home value reduced by 0.8% to $880,173.

Taken as a whole, the region’s average home value increased by 1.4% throughout the January quarter to $1,245,951 – up slightly from the 1.3% quarterly growth recorded back in December. The average home in the Auckland region is now worth 3.5% less than the same time last year, and 19.2% less than the market’s peak in late 2021. The one-month change was just 0.1%.

Local QV registered valuer Hugh Robson said activity levels still remained relatively low, despite there being a growing number of properties available for purchase.

“January has tended to be a very quiet month, possibly due to the summer holidays. Reports from agents have been mixed – some say it is pretty dead, while others think it’s slowly picking up. We should have a better idea of the market by the end of February,” he said.

by Time Lord | 11th Feb 25, 2:20pm 1739236840

Aka junk data.

by Pragmatist | 11th Feb 25, 2:43pm 1739238225

So the reinz HPI is junk data now too? Lol.

by Time Lord | 11th Feb 25, 3:29pm 1739240956

nah

by kraken | 11th Feb 25, 2:10pm 1739236244

Barfoot is what the market is actually willing to pay. Barfoot is 40% of sales in Auckland.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 2:14pm 1739236440

This data set would make good toilet paper if printed.

by RookieInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 2:42pm 1739238141

It still only represents what price ranges are selling and not taking in to account selling price vs rated price.

by interesting1234 | 12th Feb 25, 6:39am 1739295595

Selling price (a.k.a sold and already transacted price) is the only figure worth mentioning.

by Cote d'Azur | 11th Feb 25, 8:08am 1739214504

Back from my holidays and back to the races! 🥂

Note the Auckland Hamilton Tauranga increases leading the way, the Golden Triangle, if you will! 🌟

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 8:23am 1739215388

Have we already forgotten about the leading Auckland RE latest release?

Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.

From memory the medium was down 50k?

by tothepoint | 11th Feb 25, 9:56am 1739221010

What it means is that things are nowhere near as bad as certain people here would have us believe.

The QV HOUSE PRICE INDEX is the gold standard for measuring house price movements in New Zealand - over and above what any real estate agent (or anyone else) might happen to say.

TTP

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 9:08am 1739218103

Ok QV are a quarterly stat, And the massive Barfoot drop was January, thus if Barfoot's data continues it will impact QV much more, so the question is why did Barfoots data get smashed, being the biggest AKL agency its a leading indicator.

by Mypointis | 11th Feb 25, 12:30pm 1739230215

They probably sold more cheap end houses so it's skewed. They probably don't compare their sales to RVs etc like QV do.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 1:16pm 1739232975

RVs don't have any connection to sale prices..... Spruiker_101 unless they do....

They probably sold more cheap end houses so it's skewed.

Its never been skewed like this in the past? But I am glad you agree with me on this point, it means that anything above 1mil is struggling to sell...... I wonder if all normal the buyers are still at their beach bach's.

Barfoot's is a pretty big agency

OneRoof: Barfoot & Thompson comprises more than 80 branches, employs more than 1800 salespeople and, in what has become a highly competitive industry, has a 40% share of the Auckland residential real estate market.

For there data not to represent the wider market is statistically improbable. It means the other agency's will also be finding similar results.

by Chaosinflesh | 11th Feb 25, 11:47am 1739227658

Is it? Or is it the REINZ HPI?

QVs largest customers are the banks.

by Time Lord | 11th Feb 25, 11:53am 1739227994

Yeah I don't recall QV HPI ever becoming the gold standard.

by Pragmatist | 11th Feb 25, 2:24pm 1739237051

They are going to show about the same thing, with minor differences because of QVs rolling 3 month average vs reinz monthly figures.

Compare the shape of the reinz HPI vs the QV HPI, basically the same thing, less noise on the QV, and it has the peak a month or two later due to the rolling average.

It is hilarious to watch the mad pivots tho.

by Pragmatist | 11th Feb 25, 2:02pm 1739235759

Qvs largest customers are probably the councils, they do most of the council RV work.

by Yvil | 11th Feb 25, 9:31am 1739219480

I think Squirrel's John Bolton's latest video about the NZ RE market expectation for 2025 is very balanced and good.

by Timutei | 11th Feb 25, 8:58am 1739217489

Estate agent just told us that in our area house prices are 15% off of CV. One poor(sic) soul was given a valuation $300K under CV (which is less than peak)

Is QV truely impartial ?

by kraken | 11th Feb 25, 9:07am 1739218078

Which area, if you don't mind me asking?

by RookieInvestor | 11th Feb 25, 9:08am 1739218120

maybe on the higher end of the market ($2mil range as in your comment), in my area most are selling 5.1% under CV.

by rastus1 | 11th Feb 25, 9:05am 1739217909

Did the open home thing over weekend. Agent, who was also agency manager, agreed with my observation, that being large numbers of properties sitting, but very now and again and outlier buyer appears and ones gets sold at a good price.

These type of buyers are random, the exception and a matter of timing and luck for seller. Thus the remainder are holding in the hope of another outlier buyer appearing

So...who can hold and who has to fold is the game. We will find out in 25.

by Zwifter | 11th Feb 25, 9:12am 1739218363

Personally I think 2025 will be a pretty boring year for houses, prices pretty flat. Things may look unpredictable now but I don't think Trump will go the distance.

by 26@Main | 11th Feb 25, 10:45am 1739223957

So there's yet another bottom to come then? The time to buy wasn't August to October 2023 or before Christmas as you were continually stating?

by Independent_Observer | 11th Feb 25, 12:36pm 1739230619

Yip apparently unless FHB purchased before Xmas they were going to miss this cycle and be locked out of the market again.

Now this is no longer the case.

by Pragmatist | 11th Feb 25, 2:04pm 1739235878

That remains to be seen, HPI is up so far this year, if it keeps going up they will have been correct.

by Independent_Observer | 11th Feb 25, 2:29pm 1739237391

Interestingly is that the market won’t be going anywhere if FHB are priced out - especially with the foreign buyer ban. So it’s a bit of a chicken/egg situation. The market needs new entrants to load up with debt - and the boomers can no longer load up with debt as they are retiring. So got to figure out wheee the credit growth is going to come from. If it’s not from boomers and if it’s not from foreigner buyers and if it’s not from FHBs because they are going to be priced out - where is the credit growth going to appear from? Investors buying and selling to one another?

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 9:15am 1739218538

The properties under $1million are moving in Auckland, perhaps that's why the big drop in average price in January, if the top 3 quarters are a bit stagnant its going to massively drop the overall average. I think we have just seen this.

You need a lot of existing equity to by a $1.5 - 2 million dollar house,

by noponies | 11th Feb 25, 9:19am 1739218777

In the market to up / side grade current house in Tauranga for something a little bigger. Have done a few open homes to view some tarted up shite. Most recent CV of 815 had obviously not had a cent spent on it by landlord for the past 10 years. Leak in kitchen wall which was taped over. What kind of landlord lets their 'investment' rot away like that? Anyway, agent wanted offers the following day after the listing was only live for 2 weeks. I declined a formal offer after being chased by the agent to give one. Said I'd only pay 100k under CV. See how that goes.

by tothepoint | 11th Feb 25, 9:54am 1739220862

Hang on in there, no ponies …..

You might score big time.

Good luck! 🍀

TTP

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 10:18am 1739222322

In my experience you have to let these type of listings go through a few agents before the vendor realises that they are valuing their property above the bid. Some never do.

Its even worse if its owned by multiple people or a family situation.

record listings just move to the next one.

by rastus1 | 11th Feb 25, 10:38am 1739223523

One property lifestyle property I visited over weekend is wanting over $2mill. I know it had offer of $1.7 some months back - rejected. I wouldn't pay anywhere close to $1.7, so much 'wrong' with the place. They offer came form a friend of a friend...will suggest if they still interested to go back again, but lower still.

Seller way outta touch.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 11:28am 1739226495

Some equestrian properties around Auckland have been on the market for years, often they have no income potential so its pure lifestyle. Sometimes they are on tiny 2-3H sites, so even limiting in the number of horses you can realistically keep. LSB are a lot of work, you have to understand what you can realistically do yourself and what you are going to have to pay for.

Other properties sell very quickly given the market, its got to be ready now, so the teenagers can walk on and use.

by Speedmax | 12th Feb 25, 2:59am 1739282365

Are you sure you’re not overpaying?

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 10:06am 1739221568

Mmmm much like NZ.

“What we are going to have going forward is the reversal of deficit government spending, which was juicing the economy with illegals.

Some of them got jobs, but a lot of them got benefits. They got housing accommodations. The NGO system was flush with money to facilitate this massive, purposeful logistical operation. People don’t understand that the net legal migration in the US is one million a year. That’s one million people a year. The last four years, we brought in 10 million to 15 million people. That is a new economic variable, and it distorted the economy.

It never got us into expansion territory, but it papered over a lot of the ills we were seeing.

Trump’s policies are going to reverse that all out. . . . The velocity of money under Joe Biden really started to rise. . . . Illegal immigration is very inflationary...

In the fourth quarter, the velocity of money is already rolling over. The Trump effect began the moment he was elected. We’ve seen self-deportations. We have seen new tenant rents plunge, and that’s what has been holding up the housing market.”

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 10:07am 1739221645

and..

Dowd predicts,

“We are seeing a recession in 2025. The rest of the globe is already starting to roll over. It’s going to be a worldwide recession. There is going to be a mini housing crisis. Housing has been stagnant for the better part of the year. There is no transaction volume, and nobody can afford homes. We are hitting the 18-year housing cycle. The last housing cycle was in 2007, and you add 18 years and you get 2025...

The economy for the middle-class is going down. . . . As time goes on, we are going to see GDP numbers go lower and lower and lower. . . . It’s kind of a perfect storm for the Trump Administration. There is no way to avoid the pain.”

by Independent_Observer | 11th Feb 25, 1:09pm 1739232569

More or less aligns with what has happened in past periods subsequent to yield curve inversions. 12-36 months of negative growth/recession/asset price drops.

Yield curves only normalised in the 2nd half of last year so it’s possible we see no real recovery or growth until 2026-2028 if historical trends repeat.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 1:24pm 1739233446

I hate the thought of it but yes. That's my view, national will make some plan to borrow and spend to try and juice an election win , and will probably succeed as the memory of Labour and TPM/Greens etc are to raw in the common white cis males memory.

Any chance of a bounce may be decimated as recession rolls over the globe, China is screwed here, the stories of property value drops are mind blowing. Europe is a basket case with people turning to the far right for answers, and the USA is not going to extend any help.

USA has its own problems.

Basically no one cares about little old NZ, you can go solve your overvalued house problems yourself...

Not even the Cook Islands has respect for us anymore.

by Independent_Observer | 11th Feb 25, 1:57pm 1739235423

I remember 10+ years ago talking in person with a very well respected financial advisor and who currently runs a reasonable large fund (won’t name names) said don’t worry about NZ house prices falling unless China gets into trouble. He was right - while China was doing well our house prices went to the moon.

Well in all reports I see China is now in trouble so be cautious out there - especially anyone thinking of taking on large amounts of debt.

by rastus1 | 11th Feb 25, 3:45pm 1739241948

Dowd could have been talking about NZ for much of that vid. Any hope of house price' bottom being in' smashed after that listen.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 4:52pm 1739245970

Its going to be global reset .... it may hurt more here due to high levels of RE exposure and super high values relative to other countries.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 13th Feb 25, 12:44pm 1739403878

Yeah. Anyone's guess what happens in the next few years.

Inflation from trumps trade war

Deflation from ai productivity gains

Mass unemployment due to AI

China overtakes usa in economy and military.

China economy collapses.

House prices rise

House prices fall

.. anyone who tries to tell you what WILL happen has an angle.

by SND | 11th Feb 25, 12:02pm 1739228548

namely high interest rates

Funny it's never high prices the problem. Rates are close to what they were pre-covid, so they were already high back then?

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 12:31pm 1739230274

Affordability can always be fixed by the elimination of smashed avocado on toast.

by Independent_Observer | 11th Feb 25, 12:35pm 1739230541

Our excessively high private debt (140-160%) of GDP is the problem - not interest rates. An issue we’ve managed to avoid from 2008 by dropping rates/OCR to 0%. But at some point we need that debt ratio to drop down below 100% otherwise it’s just going to be pain and stagnation going forward.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 1:56pm 1739235363

We could sell them all to foreigners.... a plan so cunning you could pin a tail on it.....

by Independent_Observer | 11th Feb 25, 1:58pm 1739235508

Yes and then send our weekly wages/rents to foreign entities and be working slaves for rich men living in far away places.

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 3:01pm 1739239273

Sounds like Manurewa now....

by RickStrauss | 11th Feb 25, 4:37pm 1739245064

"You will own nothing and be happy" turned out to be National-ACT's wet dream.

by Small Kev | 11th Feb 25, 2:13pm 1739236394

Next boom around 2027-28, plenty of time. When the headlines changes, it is usually too late.

by DitchSkipper | 11th Feb 25, 4:06pm 1739243199

"High interest rates"? Aren't these just normal interest rates at the moment?

by IT GUY | 11th Feb 25, 4:54pm 1739246053

actually for 2003-2008 they are not even average.

by Speedmax | 12th Feb 25, 3:13am 1739283203

There’s nothing high about interest rates now, except for those you can only remember or research the last 5 - 10 years