Auction rooms operating with a full head of steam - 38% of properties sell under the hammer

Property / news

Auction activity little changed from late last year with no big upturn or major drop in activity

15th Feb 25, 6:00am by Greg Ninness

Residential auction rooms are back to operating with a full head of steam, with activity back up to the levels of mid-December, before the market went into hibernation for the Christmas/New Year break.

Interest.co.nz monitored 422 residential auctions around the country over the week of 8-14 February. Of those 162 sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 38%.

Where selling prices could be matched with rating valuations, 39% of selling prices were above or equal to their rating valuations.

Overall, the market appears very little changed from where it left off late last year, with the number of sales, the sales rate and price/rating valuation figures all very close to those being achieved in December.

That suggests the market is heading into 2025 on a relatively stable footing.

There has been no marked upturn in activity as some pundits have predicted but things haven't crashed either.

So steady as she goes seems to be the way things are heading at the moment.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on the Residential Auction Results page.

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146 Comments

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 7:48am 1739558921

Hi Greg, the percentage of successful auction sales over the years is often discussed here however we only go on vague memories about the actual figures. Do you have the statistics for auction results going back to before COVID? Perhaps a graph and analysis of the success rates. It would be interesting to see how it has trended over the years.

by RMN | 15th Feb 25, 2:45pm 1739583910

Warning. Read the below comments at your own risk. You will inevitably regret it and immediately become more stupid for it. IMO.

‼️⚠️⛔️☣️☢️

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 2:58pm 1739584733

Instead of saying nobody’s comment is worth reading, could we get your thoughts on the auction results?

by RMN | 15th Feb 25, 4:47pm 1739591276

That’s fair.

My opinion on the auction results is they are relatively flat and consistent with recent results. My opinion is that the days of housing investment giving astronomical returns are more than likely behind us.

It is my view that as a country we need to focus on productivity and not be so fixated on housing. It is my view that our ability to provide affordable housing to everyone should be our benchmark for success as a country. We will need to get wealthier as a nation through investment, research, innovation and productivity to achieve this. IMO.

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 4:54pm 1739591652

Warning. Read the above comment at your own risk. You will inevitably regret it and immediately become more stupid for it. IMO.

‼️⚠️⛔️☣️☢️

by sgtshortcut | 15th Feb 25, 5:40pm 1739594408

Jesus, Kraker…this dude is basically singing from your hymn sheet, & you still go burn him like that…ruthless 🧯😮

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 5:52pm 1739595148

Yeah, I agree with some of it, but it was so boring I barely made it to the end.

by tothepoint | 15th Feb 25, 7:58pm 1739602733

It appears that Kraken and Retired-Poppy are the same person ……

There are a number of disturbing similarities.

TTP

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 8:26pm 1739604380

There’s probably a 30 year gap between us, but I’m not retired poppy. I think he’s a good guy. See how easy it is to deny a false accusation, TTP?

I only really started commenting on this site when I saw the bond market rejecting the Fed cuts last September. That’s when I knew the property market was done.

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 8:49pm 1739605770

If the US10Y yield breaks below and stays below 3.6%, I’ll swim back to my lair, 3000 feet under the sea.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 9:04pm 1739606662

NZ Court convicted fraudsters are probably more concerning then people being accused to having two account here?

by tothepoint | 15th Feb 25, 9:59pm 1739609955

An obvious similarity between IT GUY, Kraken and Retired-Poppy is their obsessive behaviour ……

Once they start posting they simply cannot stop. As well, they are repetitious and want the last say on everything.

Tiresome.

TTP

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 10:03pm 1739610213

Thanks, TTP! I'm honoured to be grouped with IT GUY and Retired-Poppy.

by Retired-Poppy | 16th Feb 25, 7:59am 1739645965

👍 Yes, we are certainly separate people.

It's not hard to predict that Tim and a few other shallow minded Ponzi pushers will be gone come 01 March. Tim in particular will go for broke in the little time he has left here. Sadly, some who make worthwhile contributions might leave as well. Although I certainly hope not.

by RookieInvestor | 16th Feb 25, 9:17am 1739650628

Sadly there will be some nonsense commenter's who will pay to stay also.

by Zwifter | 16th Feb 25, 10:36am 1739655383

There is a big chance all the common sense commentators will actually leave. Why stay to be ridiculed by the same obsessive multiposter clowns and now and again even have your post totally removed due to censorship ? Are you really going to want to pay for that ?

by Retired-Poppy | 16th Feb 25, 10:55am 1739656518

Interest just won't survive without you two precious individuals 😂🤣

by Averageman | 16th Feb 25, 12:55pm 1739663733

All the specucrowd must be so leveraged they cannot to pay 27c per day to peddle their angle. Otherwise why not support the site they spend so much time phmping the ponzi support natrative..?

by Zachary Smith | 16th Feb 25, 1:52pm 1739667133

Looks like ignoramuses are to still going to be calling real estate a "ponzi" after 1st of March...

by CN - new | 16th Feb 25, 1:58pm 1739667505

Looks like ignoramuses are to still going to be calling real estate a "ponzi"

The term ponzi is not being used in context of the more commonly used phrase "ponzi scheme"

The term ponzi is being used in context of the phrase "ponzi financing" as defined by the economist Minsky.

by Zachary Smith | 16th Feb 25, 5:00pm 1739678415

There's really no such thing as "ponzi financing" as distinct from "ponzi scheme". It's not a term that shows up outside of Minsky's writing.

But I'll play your game. The vast majority of people entering, leaving or staying in the NZ property market are categorically not at the point where:

"Borrowers can only repay their debts by increasing their debt or selling borrowed assets at fire sale prices since many are in the same position and the market knows you must sell, giving you no bargaining position. Borrowers don't have enough cash coming in to cover either the principal or interest payments on their loans. They can now only rely on the appreciation of their assets or the willingness of lenders to provide additional funding."

So, you still cannot refer to the NZ real estate market as a ponzi even by this definition. It could happen but it's extremely unlikely.

by CN - new | 16th Feb 25, 5:40pm 1739680822

"Borrowers don't have enough cash coming in to cover either the principal or interest payments on their loans."

For reference:

https://youtu.be/CTQUaowT1Ek?t=266

Note that the negative cashflow shown is cashflow per week. Multiply by 52 to arrive at the top up per year.

i) $200 / week x 52 = $10,400 per year

ii) $400 per week x 52 = $20,800 per year

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 1:52pm 1739753550

Here's an real life example from a Property Investor group forum posted today (the bold emphasis is mine). Note $400 per week is $20,800 per year.

"Seeking feedback. Purchased townhouse in Auckland 2021 (fail, we know). $800k pp, rental income of $600 pw. Tenancy up April. Deciding if we cut our losses (topping up $400pw), possibly could sell for $700k.

1. Tenants want to stay on, so could either fix for 6 months, then sell (betting on market going up)

2. or sell in April taking a massive loss but ability to purchase better.

Help please!"

by The Man3 | 16th Feb 25, 2:22pm 1739668945

I do not consider paying 27c per day to advise people that property investment done well is better than any other investment is money well spent.

There are just too many on here that are not investors and never will be.

Unfortunately once the pro property people are no longer able to comment, all that will be left is a bunch of moaners,

by Zwifter | 16th Feb 25, 6:59pm 1739685556

Investors ? Are you suggesting more than one house ? Most of the moaners will not even get to own their own home. Its pointless paying to advise people on here that are not listening anyway. The people that think housing is a "Ponzi" are beyond help.

by Amokk | 16th Feb 25, 8:36pm 1739691383

Most of the moaners will not even get to own their own home

Spoken like the true I've got mine so screw you boomer that you come across as.

It appears from most comments the so called moaners you refer to mostly own a house but we see the damage to NZ that you and like minded muppets keep cheering for.

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 4:20pm 1739762433

"I do not consider paying 27c per day to advise people that property investment done well is better than any other investment is money well spent."

Would you consider the money well spent if you were able to comment and attempt to dispel any comments and concerns questioning the financial position and credit worthiness of Wolfbrook and Williams Corp?

by RookieInvestor | 16th Feb 25, 2:52pm 1739670749

Or $0.01 per hour.

I don't pay for anything I can get the same value by not paying.

You don't get rich giving money away

by Dgm | 15th Feb 25, 7:45am 1739558747

So same drama continues with disastrous sales results..

Release of the new lower CV's will put further downward pressure on prices..

by RookieInvestor | 15th Feb 25, 8:06am 1739559985

All that lower CVs will do is increase the amount selling for CV or higher

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 8:19am 1739560741

Can you give me an example… like if an CV was $1.5M, dropped to $1.2M, then people would pay $1.7M? Something like that?

Are you hoping a drop in CV will put a floor on falling prices?

by Yvil | 15th Feb 25, 11:12am 1739571134

No, he means that in your example, if the house sells for say $1.35 M, then, after the release of the new CV, it will be classified as "selling above CV" whereas now it is classified as selling below CV.

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 11:15am 1739571358

Oh, so the price actually dropped instead of rising?

by Yvil | 15th Feb 25, 11:22am 1739571734

Sorry, but you're still not getting it. No one is saying that the price will change because of new, lower CVs. RI was simply saying that lower CVs will increase the number of houses "selling above CVs because the new threshold is lower. I hope you understand now ?

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 11:25am 1739571943

Lower CVs, higher prices. Higher CVs, lower prices. Something like that?

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 11:43am 1739573024

No. You still don't understand.

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 11:52am 1739573567

Well, for your sake, hopefully the rest of the market understands.

"You see, RVs going down is actually a good thing."

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 11:42am 1739572967

I get it, you think prices won’t drop even if RVs do. I just feel like property investors always find a silver lining, even in the worst news. Sentiment will shift once RVs are released. Everyone knows someone who bought above those RVs and got burnt. Auckland’s probably never seen RVs drop before.

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 11:47am 1739573246

It's just a statistics column. In reality it is meaningless.

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 12:32pm 1739575977

To paraphrase "RVs don’t matter, they're just a guide." Use RVs on the way up, but ignore them on the way down.

by J.C. | 15th Feb 25, 1:59pm 1739581179

To paraphrase "RVs don’t matter, they're just a guide." Use RVs on the way up, but ignore them on the way down.

You would be Public Enemy #1 at the property seminars where Dr Y types go to build on their wisdom.

Suspect too you might have a field day debating the mighty Ashley Church. Always thought that guy would unravel like a ball of wool when his steady patter of memes and urban myths were even slightly probed.

by RookieInvestor | 15th Feb 25, 10:31pm 1739611876

RVs are what the estimate selling price is at the time of the valuation and indicate the current selling price.

RVs don't have an impact on selling price, it's the other way around

by Nzdan | 15th Feb 25, 12:50pm 1739577048

So it'll act as a comfort mechanism for vendors.

Doesn't matter that you sold you property for a $500k loss, what's important is that $500k loss is $50k above 2025 CV.

by RookieInvestor | 15th Feb 25, 11:22am 1739571723

If house sells for 1.2m and cv is 1.5m.

Cv drops to 1.2m. It's still gonna sell for 1.2m

by Dgm | 15th Feb 25, 8:26am 1739561189

So if cv falls from 100 to 80 and property sells for 81, yeah success? Is that your inference?

by tothepoint | 15th Feb 25, 9:42am 1739565746

That suggests the market is heading into 2025 on a relatively stable footing.

There has been no marked upturn in activity as some pundits have predicted but things haven't crashed either.

So steady as she goes seems to be the way things are heading at the moment.

This seems a pretty reasonable and satisfactory summary from Greg Ninness.

So why are Kraken and DGM so bitter and scratchy?

A couple of oddballs if ever there were ........

TTP

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 9:57am 1739566652

Did an NZ court rule that you committed fraud, TTP?

by Yvil | 15th Feb 25, 11:22am 1739571778

Crass comment which adds nothing of value Kraken, especially when hiding behind an anonymous moniker. Firstly, you don't know who TTP is for sure, secondly, who knows what you have done in your lifetime ?

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 12:36pm 1739576205

I have never seen TTP deny that he is the person convicted of fraud in the NZ Court system?

by tothepoint | 15th Feb 25, 1:04pm 1739577856

I have never seen TTP deny that he is the person convicted of fraud in the NZ Court system. [IT GUY - above]

Well, IT GUY, that's what happens when you can't see.

TTP

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 1:41pm 1739580109

Guess that settles it then... 😬. Or was it settled in court? 🤷‍♂️

by tothepoint | 15th Feb 25, 1:37pm 1739579844

Hi Kraken,

I suggest you take heed of the time-honoured wisdom .....

"When you're in a hole, quit digging."

TTP

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 1:47pm 1739580464

TTP, I have no idea who you are, but a link to a court ruling pops up almost every week and you don’t deny it. Maybe just start a new account and go by a different name.

by tothepoint | 15th Feb 25, 2:05pm 1739581538

Yet another statement on the level of Kraken's mentality ......

by RookieInvestor | 15th Feb 25, 10:15am 1739567714

A change in CVs will have no impact on what people are selling their houses for.

It only reflects what houses are currently selling for.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 10:20am 1739568037

It only reflects what houses are currently selling for.

So if a vendor is asking a price 10-20% above the new cv, you have to ask

A) Is the new CV wrong?

B) Is the seller delusional?

by Dgm | 15th Feb 25, 10:57am 1739570273

C) speculators are delusional

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 12:38pm 1739576307

D) the numbers do not work, and they are delusional, see $1200 per week shortfall calc below if prices stay where they are and rates fall to 4% for a mortgage. (Rookies base case)

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 12:49pm 1739576972

One group of property promoters show calculations that the property is cashflow negative for a period of time. They have also factored in lower mortgage rates and rising rents which forecast the property to be cashflow positive in the future.

They also assume house price growth of 5% - 6% p.a. (Some believe that house prices double every 10 years and may use that number in their calculations)

Capital gain oriented investors may still believe those rates of house price growth are achievable and buy.

Owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 6:44pm 1739598273

Do residential dwelling prices double every 10 years?

Here is where that comes from:

https://youtu.be/j4M67KcLdmk?t=221

A book written by Dolf de Roos, showed the historical residential dwelling growth rates from the period 1966 - 1995 (a 29 year period) for the following areas:

a) Auckland: 11.2% p.a.

b) Hamilton:10.2% p a.

c) Tauranga 10.2% p.a

d) Palmerston North:10.1% p.a

e) Wellington: 10.3% p.a

f) Christchurch: 10.8% p.a.

Beware that past returns is not indicative of future returns. However many people ignore that investment warning.

Also here is an interesting snippet from the above video - the property industry insider becomes a buyer at or near the peak.

1) https://youtu.be/j4M67KcLdmk?t=605 - bought due to fear of missing out (FOMO)

2) https://youtu.be/j4M67KcLdmk?t=867 - is she in negative equity (that would mean a 100% drop in her equity due to leverage used to finance her purchase)

The buyer is unaware of the difference in future financial outcomes of Peaker vs Buyer Today as illustrated previously. She doesn't know what she doesn't know.

A buyer in Nov 2024 (i.e rent for 3 years from Nov 2021 and buy in Nov 2024), of a median house price in Auckland, is better off by an estimated $827,000 over the lifetime of the 30 year mortgage by paying less for the residential dwelling, and taking on a smaller mortgage compared to Peaker.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 6:42pm 1739598174

NO one will be buying here unless they can put in hundreds a week.... maybe thousands.

The Bullshite FOMO by Spruikers collapses into total BS if you put current numbers into a spreadsheet

as shown in this thread

Its over rover. no bag holders can get out now

by CN - new | 16th Feb 25, 2:30pm 1739669441

"Its over rover."

Former prime minister Sir Bill English is optimistic that New Zealand’s house prices are going to trend downwards, in real terms at least.

“Our housing is too expensive,” English told delegates to the INFINZ (Institute of Finance Professionals New Zealand Inc) conference at Auckland’s Cordis Hotel on Monday.

“If we successfully deal with housing affordability, your house prices are not going to go up for the next 15 years, much.”

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/business/350451961/get-used-it-sir-bill-…

by TronMVP | 16th Feb 25, 5:00pm 1739678456

There's a big "if" in his statement.

by Independent_Observer | 15th Feb 25, 12:47pm 1739576840

A concept/question I’ve been asking on here in regards to peoples faith wrt CV’s is/was :

’we’re house prices in Ireland 50% overvalued before their market crash or 100% after - or neither of the above’.

And:

’if valuations can be incorrect by as much as 50-100%, what value do they really have?’

by Independent_Observer | 15th Feb 25, 12:51pm 1739577078

Eg in Wellington were CV’s 30% out of touch with reality in 2021 or are by the same amount now? (Ie around 30-40% undervalued if the peak was the real correct valuation for these homes)

And why would we put any emphasis on a product that within 12-18momths can be up to 30% wrong?

ie I think my house is worth X amount but in reality it might be worth (X - 0.3)

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 1:43pm 1739580238

It's just for determining the rates bill.

by Independent_Observer | 15th Feb 25, 1:56pm 1739581013

Lol - imagine telling Wellington council that their rates income is going down 20-30% due to the average drop in latest CV’s.

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 3:30pm 1739586640

If RVs went down by an average of 20-30% it would have no impact on rates income whatsoever.

Your rates would only go down if it was just your RV that went down and everyone else's stayed the same. Sometimes people will challenge their RV because it is out of step with other houses around them of similar value and this can lead to a rates reduction if the council agrees.

If all RVs go down or up it makes no difference. The total rates take stays pretty much the same, it's just divvied up by RV value of houses. If the average RV went down by 99% you would still have to pay the same rates.

by Independent_Observer | 15th Feb 25, 7:14pm 1739600098

Yes understood - I was being facetious

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 7:32pm 1739601172

Haha, Poe's Law! I should have known you wouldn't have this misconception..

by Ahuhyeah | 15th Feb 25, 6:56pm 1739598961

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127964824/heres-wh…

by J.C. | 15th Feb 25, 2:16pm 1739582198

And why would we put any emphasis on a product that within 12-18momths can be up to 30% wrong?

Yep. If you applied that to any other asset class, expect much scoffing at the BBQ.

However, it's something unique to property in that you have many kinds of artificial valuations (constructs).

by General Comment | 15th Feb 25, 7:50pm 1739602211

in Wellington were CV’s 30% out of touch with reality in 2021

Yes

And why would we put any emphasis on a product that within 12-18momths can be up to 30% wrong?

For Wellington I suspect it'll be within a 5% range of being wrong, in either direction. But an RV is simply a snapshot of a property's estimated value at a certain date. The only number that matters is the one on the unconditional sale agreement.

by Nzdan | 15th Feb 25, 12:51pm 1739577101

Buyers will most certainly be anchored by the new RVs though.

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 12:57pm 1739577479

"Buyers will most certainly be anchored by the new RVs though"

Exactly. CV may influence some buyer expectations.

Whereas a real estate agent's current market appraisal strongly influences the vendor’s price expectations (and the buyer doesn't get to see this number)

Hence different price expectations between vendor and buyer.

by Zwifter | 15th Feb 25, 12:39pm 1739576372

The selling price doesn't change with the CV/RV. The house will sell for what its worth, the RV was low on mine at the time but I paid what it was "Worth to me" at the time. I went $50K over the last bidder to meet the reserve, it was irrelevant I was going to buy the house as its my dream home.

by Amokk | 15th Feb 25, 8:32am 1739561555

Pray tell guruinvestor what All that lower CVs will do is increase the amount selling for CV or higher is going to do for the psyche of those selling houses and/or your precious house prices rises you so desperately pray for?

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 8:39am 1739561974

The CV just serves as a reference marker. It's only of some limited use when trying to determine if house prices are rising. For example if in February 40% of sales sell over the CV and then in December 60% of sales are over CV then it may indicate something fairly general. For individual sales it is almost meaningless and shouldn't be used to determine the price as it is just a council rating tool.

What Rookieinvestor is saying is that the reference level will change and the trend starts again from that point.

by Dgm | 15th Feb 25, 9:34am 1739565282

Since when have you become a psychologist? Or are you rookieinvestor?

by Zwifter | 15th Feb 25, 11:17am 1739571429

Its a reference and often way out. I paid another $100K over the CV on my place in 2020. Since then its gone up another $100K over what I paid for it. The latest CV is close, but still under what it worth.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 12:40pm 1739576422

They are not 100% for special cases, I can subdivide and make a mil, but the cv does not take that into account and the vendor had not done their homework.

Not applicable for fully devloped sites ...

by Zwifter | 15th Feb 25, 10:21am 1739568116

Correct Rookie. Tauranga has had the new CV's for a while now and all the properties sold are now selling above the RV. Our new RV's were delayed about 6 months, its a bad idea to delay them just release them.

by agnostium | 15th Feb 25, 3:06pm 1739585185

All that lower CVs will do is increase the amount selling for CV or higher

Correct which is why it's really important to know that going forward, unless 100% are selling over CV the property market is still crashing.

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 7:48am 1739558931

Some big fat zeros in areas that were once red hot. Isn't February supposed to be peak season for real estate price growth? What’s the rest of the year going to look like? "Survive to 2025." I’m not seeing a recovery.

by Rampart | 15th Feb 25, 7:52am 1739559126

Exist til 2026 is the latest catchphrase. What rhymes with 7?

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 9:08am 1739563689

2027 will be heaven.

Heaven in '27

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 8:35am 1739561727

AC/DC Hells Bells (a old vid, young group)

https://youtu.be/etAIpkdhU9Q

Play it loud... nothing like a decent air con cab in a big tractor with AC/DC Playlist on....

off to cut firewood...

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 9:07am 1739563656

"2027 will be heaven."

Death of the housing market?

by Dgm | 15th Feb 25, 10:34am 1739568843

Hahahaha

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 10:51am 1739569895

Does money go to heaven during a real estate market crash?

by Dgm | 15th Feb 25, 10:59am 1739570359

Hmmm about 99% of it goes to hell..

by Rampart | 15th Feb 25, 12:47pm 1739576846

Recession til 27

by sgtshortcut | 15th Feb 25, 7:50am 1739559031

JimboJones, I just want to say thank you for the opportunity to discuss something other than property yesterday evening!

Have a good weekend all 🫡

by NZGecko | 15th Feb 25, 9:26am 1739564769

ITS ALL PROPERTY LEMONS, TILL 27.

But more likely, it's financially less dangerious to:

SAVE YOUR BAIT, TILL 28.

Or for the more conservative:

DIP YOUR LINES IN 29.

by RookieInvestor | 15th Feb 25, 10:23am 1739568186

It will be fixed by 26

by Amokk | 15th Feb 25, 11:15am 1739571302

House prices to stay in the 💩 in 26.

by Dgm | 15th Feb 25, 11:54am 1739573687

House prices to stay in the ⚰️ till 29

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 12:41pm 1739576476

Pain not gain till 2029

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 11:53am 1739573608

If you plan to buy in 29, you will be a bit late - prices will be up 20% by then, and a certain group who listened to a certain group will be again be left feeling disappointed.

by Zwifter | 15th Feb 25, 12:35pm 1739576147

And you just wasted another $200K in rent to get there.

by Independent_Observer | 15th Feb 25, 12:43pm 1739576634

Just as a certain group who listened to a certain group of cheerleaders in 2021 now find themselves down 15-30% (depending upon region) and in many cases in negative equity in a weak economy.

It goes both ways.

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 1:06pm 1739577973

For sure, it goes both ways.

by sgtshortcut | 15th Feb 25, 3:14pm 1739585666

Damnit Gecko, reading this & now I want to play...

DGMs “prices to crash-dive in ‘25”

Spruikers “property to thrive in ‘25”

Neutrals “these dicks are gonna argue to ‘26”

I still think its a 🚴🏻, but maybe it isn't, who knows...🤷🏻‍♂️

Regardless, I do love the rich tapestry of your comments though NZG!

I think it is enough for me to finally pay my subs come March 👌

by Independent_Observer | 15th Feb 25, 7:23pm 1739600607

These dicks will argue to 26 is a good one. Made me laugh.

’DGM this…DGM that..’

’Spruiker this….spruiker that…’

In most cases each arguing for their own financial interest (some from a moral or ethic stand point) and attempting to belittle or gaslight their opponent into thinking their thinking is crazy. It’s such a 2024 way of operating …so last year.

I’m a bit tired of all the endless name calling which really isn’t beneficial in any respect.

(what is wrong with property investor or bull or property bear - instead of spruiker or doom gloom merchant. It reflects the other person’s position without insinuating they are a fool or a bad person for taking that position).

by sgtshortcut | 15th Feb 25, 10:19pm 1739611152

I_O fair call, I agree the labelling is tiresome, in this instance I couldn’t help myself but it was tongue in cheek & nothing more.

by NZGecko | 15th Feb 25, 9:37am 1739565429

The fools, who plonked their entire wad on the property roulette "wheel of unfortune" - over the last 5 years will be strung out in the dry desert, by paying over 4xDTI.

They will learn a lesson in the perils of financial speculation, that will last their lifetime.

It's a lesson that requires a hell of a hangover!!

Buyers today, should only offer and pay, within the 2015 to 2018 valuation range.

As seen in recent years, NEGATIVE EQUITY is a biatch!

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 11:54am 1739573672

Do you have any stats on how many have negative equity?

by K.W. | 15th Feb 25, 10:06am 1739567165

https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/rent/wellington/wellin…

Student flat within walking distance of Vic Uni available for rent at $800 per week. Down from $940 per week in 2020.

RV in 2021 $1.78M

RV in 2025 $1.25M

Homes.co.nz sale price estimate $1.12M

Estimated mortgage cost at 5.49% (80% LVR) is $1,270 per week. Rates $8,626 pa.

Dont all rush out now.

by kraken | 15th Feb 25, 10:20am 1739568048

"Be quick!", I’ve seen some "investors" try to catch falling knives in Wellington last year before the new RVs. I’m holding off until IT Guy calls the bottom. No rush.

by Independent_Observer | 15th Feb 25, 7:26pm 1739600791

Yeah IT Guys timing was pretty impeccable at the top - luck or a market visionary.

Are you going to tell us when you buy again IT Guy or are you like Buffett and we have to wait until after the fact to know your back in the market?

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 10:43am 1739569436

20.7% of the rent is required to cover the rates, then there is insurance.... (as rates are increasing faster then rents... one assumes this situation will get worse for a few years...). Rates are bad in Auckland, but seem worse in ChCh and WGTN. Anyone believe WGTN is being well run right now?

how much you guys reckon for insurance?

At least its well maintained and well modernized... chortle chortle, no photos of the iron roof, probably because its rooted.

That owner should have got out at the top...

On a yield basis as an investment you would need to get this between 500-600k to make it worth buying, right now the owner is having capital pains.

by K.W. | 15th Feb 25, 11:45am 1739573136

Not only that, but its sitting vacant due to Labour's removal of the ability to terminate leases at the end of the fixed term. This would normally have been advertised at the end of last year, so students can be organised and have somewhere to move in to when they arrive for the start of the 2025 term. Now it cant be advertised until after the old students give their 28 days notice - resulting in the landlord missing the incoming student tenant pool entirely.

So you can knock off $800 income for every week it sits vacant.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 10:57am 1739570220

lets say you bought this for 600k

Your loan Loan amount $480,000

Your ongoing repayments $2,633 per month on 18 months fixed rate of 5.19% p.a. ASB Cal 30 year term

you get 800 per week 41,600 less rates 8640 and insurance 2000 (luckily its well maintained...)

this gives you 30960 to pay mortgage ie 2,580 to pay the mortgage each month a

SHORTFALL OF $53 a week!

This shows you how out of whack things have become.

current home valuation would need to fall by almost 50% to make this house cashflow neutral

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 12:25pm 1739575552

"SHORTFALL OF $53 a week!"

Capital gain oriented investors may be willing to pay that. ($53 / week shortfall assumes P&I). This is $2,750 per year. Some capital gain oriented buyers were topping up by over $10,000 per year ($200 / week)

"Your ongoing repayments $2,633 per month on 18 months fixed rate of 5.19% p.a. ASB Cal 30 year term"

Remember non owner occupier buyers are using interest only loans. On a $480,000 mortgage at 5.19% p.a, the payment is $24,912 per year ($2,076 per month, $479 per week)

That is a difference of $6,992 per year ($582 per month, $134 per week). The property is cashflow positive on interest only financing terms.

That is why non owner occupier buyers are outbidding owner occupier buyers.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 12:31pm 1739575889

those numbers are based on a 600k purchase current cv is 1.2 ish..

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 12:41pm 1739576477

But still, your figures showed a positive return. You can't really include principal as a cost.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 12:43pm 1739576593

at current rates AND 600k purchase 20% down its not cashflow positive.

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 1:50pm 1739580639

I suppose you're hung up on the term "cash flow"? You usually have to wait a few years to enjoy that if you consider there to be no cash flow because you have to top up the principal payment.

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 3:25pm 1739586342

"I suppose you're hung up on the term "cash flow"?"

People are free to choose to focus on "profit" or choose to focus on "cash flow"

Some who focused on "profit" are now in cashflow stress - or may have faced receivership, liquidation or bankruptcy of both the company and personally. If you want specific examples, look at the businesses who have been put into receivership, or liquidated by liquidators in the past few years. There are many who focused on "profit" who are now in the financial graveyard.

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 3:37pm 1739587046

It would be very rare to find a property that you would buy for 20% deposit that would pay all the costs plus interest and principal and have some cash left over.

by Chaosinflesh | 15th Feb 25, 4:12pm 1739589127

It would likewise be rare to find anyone actually paying a 20% deposit for an investment - they're all leveraging equity (and they need 30% by LVR?) making it effectively 100% financed.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 8:06pm 1739603183

You usually have to wait

how would you propose to put this onto the spreadsheet, I do not normally have these type of fields in my plans

asking for the bank, who are now wanting a business plan

You could just enter a "shit I hope" capital gains kick in hear fields, have you needed to supply this data before?

bloody banks

by Zachary Smith | 16th Feb 25, 4:30pm 1739676602

The banks look at all your income and not just the property in isolation. If your salary or other income can cover the shortfall it's all good with them.

by kiwimummma | 15th Feb 25, 4:16pm 1739589409

Plus your calculation does not allow for a return on the deposit

by IT GUY | 16th Feb 25, 12:06am 1739617615

this is indeed true... but I would be more worried about the return of my deposit right now...

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 12:03pm 1739574219

The market was flat in 2024, and it will remain flat in 2025. Every week there will be stats from B&T showing clearance rates of around 40%, and every month stats showing the values in each region going up or down nought point something per cent. Doom and Gladness Merchants will say their piece, and the Spruikers will retort as per usual.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 12:33pm 1739576014

NO DROPS SHORTFALL OF $1240 a WEEK current holders of BAG WEEP HERE

you would need a before tax income of $97k to pay this... assuming you used 100% of it on that allocation....

lets say rates get to 4% (Rockie don't wet yourself) $2,292 on your floating rate of 4.00% p.a. 30 year term and 600k purchase ! you have left over $288 a week yeehaa, but thats if you get it for 600, you guys say no drops so lets say 1mill purchase at 4%

800k mortgage 200k deposit Your ongoing repayments $3,820 a month on your floating rate of 4.00% p.a. 30 year term shortfall is $1240 a WEEK

I call BS on your prediction that prices go up 20% as it would require

$4,775 on your floating rate of 4.00% p.a. you have run out of greater fools guys

TA is not kidding when he says the numbers do not work yet (he forgets to mention the 40-50% from here falls required to make them work)

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 12:40pm 1739576427

Is this a reply to my comment that house prices will remain flat?

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 1:24pm 1739579040

yes According to my Calcs it will not be investors bidding houses up if they have to put in a shortfall of 1200 a week.

who is going to chase prices up?

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 1:34pm 1739579683

I agree with you that house prices won't be chased up. That's why I'm saying prices will be flat.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 8:02pm 1739602946

Everything up in the air needs fuel to stay there.... its the bid that defines every market worldwide.

ouch ouch ouch

by TronMVP | 15th Feb 25, 11:28pm 1739615311

The fuel is loans from ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, Kiwibank, SBS, TSB, Co-operative Bank, plus many non-bank lenders to the tune of $6-7 Billion every month. But you knew that.

by CN - new | 16th Feb 25, 1:21am 1739622072

"The fuel is loans from ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, Kiwibank, SBS, TSB, Co-operative Bank, plus many non-bank lenders to the tune of $6-7 Billion every month."

How much is:

1) refinancing an existing mortgage? (e.g move mortgage from ASB to ANZ - that would be a new mortgage for ANZ)

2) new mortgage to be used in business financing

3) new lending for new purchases of residential property?

by TronMVP | 16th Feb 25, 6:29am 1739640567

$4.9 billion is for the purchase of residential property, as per RBNZ.

Refinancing with a bank switch is $2billion, and $900million for top ups of existing loans.

First home buyers are being loaned $1.0-1.3 billion each month.

by John Mendel | 15th Feb 25, 3:47pm 1739587638

In your sweet dreams. house prices this year 5-10% UP

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 9:05pm 1739606736

not many posts saying my 1200 shortfall a week numbers are wrong?

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 11:16pm 1739614600

"house prices this year 5-10% UP"

Can you please share your line of reasoning underlying that assertion?

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 12:39pm 1739576371

Developers offering non cash incentives to buyers rather than lower prices.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018974922/p…

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/541881/why-developers-are-offering-…

Note lowering sales prices by developers lowers the most recent comparable transaction on the developer's remaining unsold inventory. And price expectations from future buyers.

by Dick Mammoth | 15th Feb 25, 12:41pm 1739576480

Would not want to selling in Rodney .It seems to be down the toilet every time they release these stats

by Zachary Smith | 15th Feb 25, 1:54pm 1739580842

Franklin too however auctions aren't the only way houses sell.

by IT GUY | 15th Feb 25, 2:57pm 1739584676

Too much diversity, ie LSB or Milldale or Coastville etc. the LSB etc is high value nothing that high gets auctioned now, buyers to savy to bid against each other.

by CN - new | 15th Feb 25, 3:40pm 1739587221

FYI,

Total number of listings for sale on Trademe.co.nz

A) 15 Feb 2024: 41,402

B) 15 Feb 2025: 47,246 (increase of 14% compared to 2024)

by John Mendel | 15th Feb 25, 3:45pm 1739587548

North shore 50% above RV, nice

by Zwifter | 15th Feb 25, 4:33pm 1739590386

You can expect that to go to 100% 6 months after the new RV's come out. Tauranga was down at 40% from memory now its at 100%.

by agnostium | 15th Feb 25, 8:00pm 1739602828

Correct. They will still be selling 20% under peak though.

by nzlegofan | 17th Feb 25, 12:29pm 1739748575

50% of properties sold at auction on the Shore selling for over 2021 RV, pretty impressive