Trade Me Property starts the year with surge in listings and a drop in asking prices

Property / news

Listings on Trade Me Property at a five year high in January while asking prices were in decline

17th Feb 25, 9:23am by Greg Ninness

The housing market looks likely to favour buyers even more strongly this year, with a surge of listings on Trade Me Property and asking prices heading south.

The website had around 39,000 residential listings in January, which was up 17% compared to January last year and the most for the month of January in five years.

"It seems that a lot of vendors have come back from the break and are ready to make a move in 2025, which is great news for buyers, who now have more properties and more choice," Trade Me Property Customer Director Gavin Lloyd said.

The biggest increase in properties for sale was in the Wellington region where listings in January were up 28% compared to January last year, while Canterbury listings were up 23% and Auckland listings were up 17% on a year ago.

However, while the number of properties coming on to the market was up strongly in January, asking prices headed in the opposite direction.

The national average asking price on the website was $842,900 in January, -0.8% compared to December last year.

In Auckland, the average asking price also declined by -0.8% for the month, while the biggest decline in asking prices was in Otago at -2.9% - see the chart below for the full regional figures.

The combination of a surge in stock on to an already oversupplied market and reduced asking prices suggests the market remains very much in buyers' favour heading into the busiest time of year for residential real estate.

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136 Comments

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 9:28am 1739737739

Just a reminder - asking prices are a leading indicator on sale prices.

Prices to keep falling this year.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 10:10am 1739740258

🥂 lower prices equals more FHBers qualifying....

Many will ask but how much lower?

The lower bound could well be defined as the point that a rental becomes cash flow positive with the required 30% deposit and that current 2year mortgage rate at that point. Sure some may try to front run the market and may pay more on the basis that they will be able to derive more by developing or subdividing etc etc.

FHBers the investors out there will be using the numbers below, they are your underbidder.

Investor Calcs

if you have an Auckland rental providing $660 a week = 34,320 and rates of lets say 3,000 insurance of 2,000 that gives you 29320

current 2year and 30 year term 5.29 from ASB you can borrow $440k plus the other 30%

you can pay max $628k you have to put in 188k

all sites have unique benefits.. your millage may vary

if rates fall to 4% for 2 year you can borrow 512k plus deposit of 219k

you can pay max $731k you have to put in 219k

on both cases you will have a tax bill, unless you get creative.

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 9:50am 1739739042

Yep! Though there is no rush, at all.

Don't listen to REAs.

by redcows1 | 17th Feb 25, 9:58am 1739739483

That's why the cute little family are hugging.

Just gotta hold together a bit longer living in the landlords overpriced shit box and then we'll buy an even cheaper house.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 10:08am 1739740100

yeah nah, just a slightly less expensive little shit box....

by Te Kooti | 17th Feb 25, 2:30pm 1739755835

My 2c worth.

In my observations over the years, in previous cycles we have seen more buyer interest at this stage of the rate cut cycle. Which tells us other macro and socioeconomic factors are having a larger bearing on sentiment.

Intuitively that is plausible, we are exporting buyers and importing renters at a rate of knots unseen at any time. Just imagine how dire things would be without the interest deductibility and capital gains changes.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 2:59pm 1739757544

its the same as the valuation of a startup problem.... while you are making no money the startup could be a unicorn, as soon as you make any the velocity of earnings values your entire startup. The blow off top has no rationale re valuation its 100% FOMO.

First rentals had positive cashflow and capital gains where icing on top, though it used to be double every 10 years.
then positive cashflow disappeared but by structuring in an LAQC you could still win on personal tax deductions
then the ring fenced that tax loss transfer
then they bought in capital gains taxes
then they outlawed interest deductability
there is a pattern here if you cannot pick it up.....

All the while prices went up, now they are so high , how do you realistically price a rental on any known economic valuation method...

You have to go back to yield as capital gains are fairy tales now... its a hell of a long way down.

And buyers are in wait and see mode due tot he huge numbers of listings, perhaps if so many people where not lining up to get out buyers would have more confidence...

by ghytresd | 18th Feb 25, 12:05am 1739790359

The masses entering the IP game late are oblivious to the changing incentives, just following the herd, strengthening conviction as savvy investors as money got cheaper.

Don't hear enough about the ring-fencing change but I believe that to be the tipping point, and the deductibility an encouraging firm nudge for those who didn't get the hint.

But still plenty looking at the historical gains (or espousing them) without consideration of the settings that made IP such an attractive investment in days past.

Deductibility may be back but ring-fencing did the damage and is unlikely to be undone.

by singautim | 17th Feb 25, 5:37pm 1739767030

Won't investors will be assuming a labour govt will return and bring back reduced interest deductibility?

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 10:41am 1739742116

you can play the argument between FHB and investors, if properties are cash flow positive, investors will come to the market.

i feel there is a balance between investor coming to the market and FHB paying more than an investor would be willing to.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 11:11am 1739743898

A key takeout for me is that its only at the very bottom of the market that property even presents as possible buy for investors, as you move up into 1-1.5 mil the site either has to have a lot of land or be something unique that represents a development opportunity.

Though there are so many bag holders with these properties now, and no developer activity, and developers are ruthless bastards when making offers. (many bought these at 800k so there is little stress re mortgage payments, but there is also very little action re being able to sell at 1.5), I see clearance for these as a long and drawn out affair, but importantly they can fall a long way and still not be a loss. watercare will not help as developers will not touch until they have clarity

Most of the movement above quartile 1 will be upsizing, downsizing, death and divorce. only 1 of these will result in a bigger mortgage

it would be interesting to know the average number of days on market for each quartile would it not?

by tothepoint | 17th Feb 25, 11:51am 1739746306

With stock levels relatively high and prices relatively low, it's fertile ground for counter-cyclical strategists ......

TTP

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 12:04pm 1739747062

A good strategy for catching a falling knife is

A) let is stop moving around once it reaches the floor

B) a stainless steel mesh glove?

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 12:38pm 1739749084

Prices are lower, not low. Very different things.

by Kohukohunui | 17th Feb 25, 1:05pm 1739750700

You go first...

by Speedmax | 18th Feb 25, 11:39pm 1739875181

Except that prices are not yet relatively low…relative to what? The Covid bubble? Or the post-GFC artificially low interest rates?? We have to look back before GFC to get a sense of what’s long-term normal. At best it’s going to flatline for years

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 1:50pm 1739753435

From a Property Investor group forum posted today (the bold emphasis is mine). Note $400 per week is $20,800 per year.

"Seeking feedback. Purchased townhouse in Auckland 2021 (fail, we know). $800k pp, rental income of $600 pw. Tenancy up April. Deciding if we cut our losses (topping up $400pw), possibly could sell for $700k.

1. Tenants want to stay on, so could either fix for 6 months, then sell (betting on market going up)

2. or sell in April taking a massive loss but ability to purchase better.

Help please!"

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 25, 2:12pm 1739754737

It's been a while since I've been there, but the general consensus in that group forum is this:

Put the rent up to $1000 per week.
Whatever you don't recover, take a note of every bit of minor wear and tear you can think of and claw back their bond.
Tenants are scumbags.

by Chaosinflesh | 17th Feb 25, 3:13pm 1739758402

Whatever you don't recover, take a note of every bit of minor wear and tear you can think of and claw back their bond.

Ah, so that's why our landlord tried that on us (tried to claim wear and tear is deliberate damage that landlords should not be responsible for - and not just ours, but the previous decades!).

We simply said no. We didn't need our bond to pay for the next one, but I feel for those who do. Several months later, the TT agreed with us.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 25, 3:35pm 1739759743

A bit like our Landlord that tried doing us for pre-existing damages. Until we presented them with the pre-tenancy inspection form and date stamped photos.

Was funny seeing the very damages in question when they listed the property using the old listing photos.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 2:11pm 1739754712

I'm under the impression the cost of the loan interest only + rates + insurance should be what is compared to rent, since the principle is going to principle and buying the asset. Please don't confuse this with paying an interest only loan, that's not what i'm referring to.

how does this look when comparing renting vs owning.

Loan = $520K ($650K house w/20% deposit)

Interest payments = $27.5k (5.29%)

Rates = $3k

Insurance = $2k

Total = $31.5k

That's about the same as $600/week in rent.

so owning a $650k house is about the same as paying $600/week in rent. (or a house that yields around 4.8%)

by The Man3 | 17th Feb 25, 6:44pm 1739771065

Most seasoned investors are not requiring to put any deposit down, just leveraging.

Buy at under market value and deposit equity is already there from existing property.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 25, 9:46am 1739738815

Yup, suggests a drop in vendor sentiment and willingness to start to meet the market.

Hopefully the combination of potential unemployment and emigration numbers doesn't result in vendors chasing ghosts and the market down with them.

by Zwifter | 17th Feb 25, 10:23am 1739740990

The question you need to ask yourself is "Are prices falling faster than what I'm paying out each week in rent ?" You need to earn $1000 pre tax a week down here to pay the average rent on a house.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 12:06pm 1739747179

in almost all cases renting is cheaper then paying a mortgages, especially at current settings.

You need to earn $1000 pre tax a week down here to pay the average rent on a house.

I am glad you see how ridiculous the current situation is.

so that's about $1 million on term deposit ?

by Blackbeard | 17th Feb 25, 12:33pm 1739748798

Yes, and there’s plenty of rentals on the market - an over supply. Negotiate low rent, otherwise move out.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 3:35pm 1739759721

A relief I have from moving from ownership to rent is not worrying about R&M and what the weekend 'chore' will be. I was always conscious of an ageing asset, many seem to ignore this, but I spent a good deal of time staying on top of it.

But the biggest relief by far is only being a spectator to the inevitable house price collapse. Sure I'd be worried on a rising housing market, but in my mind (which is what matters) it's all down hill from here.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 25, 3:43pm 1739760204

Agreed, just replaced a sink mixer in one of our bathrooms, threaded rods holding to the vanity had rusted away. $100 and ~1 hour later it was sorted. 18 months ago we dropped $30k on a new roof, and we're about to spend about the same on a new kitchen.

But I personally don't mind the R&M chores/expenses, as there are so many other plusses/positive attributes in our home that completely outweigh the negatives.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 4:10pm 1739761819

Sure, at a time in life it is satisfying and adds to ones asset. Later in life you tend to get a bit over it - 1 day out of 40 years left of living aint much.....as you get older that 1 day becomes a big hunk of what's left! Enjoy being young.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 4:33pm 1739763200

Its why lifestyle blocks are often run down, the owners run out of ability to either maintain themselves or pay for maintenance.... your LSF IMHO needs a decent cashflow to present as a home and income to the next buyer, either a side business, 2nd minor dwelling (hell $500 per week rent would add about 600k to value at current lunacy) but what ever its worth thats $500 a week could be spend on maintenance etc.

by Retired-Poppy | 17th Feb 25, 10:51am 1739742678

Zwifter, just for a change, try asking yourself some questions.

by Zwifter | 17th Feb 25, 1:22pm 1739751758

What sort of questions RP ? Like how to retire at 50 ?

by Retired-Poppy | 17th Feb 25, 1:54pm 1739753666

Zwifter, perhaps ask yourself why the online world doesn't seem to take you seriously. If you felt deep down they did, you'd be committed to posting here after 01-March. What's your precious financial advice to others worth?

Glad to help.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 1:58pm 1739753881

the online world doesn't seem to take you seriously. If you felt deep down they did, you'd be committed to posting here after 01-March.

So you're saying you're doing the world a favor by subscribing to interest?

Maybe I'm mistaken, i was under the impression peoples egos relaxed as they age.

by Retired-Poppy | 17th Feb 25, 2:13pm 1739754815

Look who shows up when I was replying to Zwifter about not being taken seriously - FUNNY!

Like night follows day, some individuals are hell bent on becoming the entertainment.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 2:15pm 1739754923

I take his comments about as seriously as i take yours.

Aaaand considering i am part of the online world...

by Retired-Poppy | 17th Feb 25, 2:22pm 1739755334

Zwifter and I possess two very different ideologies. What do you take seriously - LOL!

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 2:48pm 1739756912

Just because an ideology is different doesn't mean it shouldn't be considered.

I can with your massive LOL.. see how seriously you should be taken.

well at least you paid for your opinion to be heard.

by Zwifter | 17th Feb 25, 6:01pm 1739768476

Actually RP you are correct, nobody ever took me seriously and in fact most people thought I was a bit of an idiot to be honest despite my qualifications and certificates hanging on the wall, still I'm not too worried about it now, made the right decisions in life when it mattered and definitely got the last laugh.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 7:02pm 1739772136

I only laugh at your love of term deposits , which are just such a low returning investment for anyone with your level of education.

No one I who could be considered financially astute ever mentions them as a prudent financial strategy , they all talk managed funds...

by Zwifter | 17th Feb 25, 9:09pm 1739779753

All part of the plan to be honest, just not greedy I have all the money I need and just enjoy my hobbies these days. I stay away from people that all they can talk about is how much money they have made this week, not interested I have other sorts of personal challenges.

by rastus1 | 18th Feb 25, 10:01am 1739826081

sounds like you have life sussed.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 11:36am 1739745363

The interest can pay the rent, but the real gain is the capital loss for the current owner that is effectively being transferred to new buyers.

Untaxed capital gain on my house fund is how I look at it.

by tothepoint | 17th Feb 25, 12:00pm 1739746816

The vast majority of house owners have made a capital gain. Further, homeowners avoid paying rent, while gaining security/stability in their lives.

But the blind follow the blind - like lemmings over a cliff.

TTP

by Chaosinflesh | 17th Feb 25, 12:16pm 1739747803

Homeowners with a mortgage still pay rent - it just happens to be they are renting money instead of the house. Stop paying that rent and see how long you keep the house (the action will come, even if it takes longer than the TT).

The security has been given to the bank.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 12:19pm 1739747971

There are none so blind

Propellor property
Property apprentice
Property together

There is no fool like a rich fool chasing tax free capital gains....

by Amokk | 17th Feb 25, 12:40pm 1739749230

Amen to that - feel you might of forgotten one more - Tim the naughty lying Property Broker https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2017/property-brokers-manawatu-and-director-fined-$1.5m-in-price-fixing-case

by dubious | 17th Feb 25, 12:34pm 1739748844

Homeowners effectively pay a "rent" equal to the interest accrued from their mortgage, plus the opportunity loss of repaying the capital (eg sticking that money into an investment fund), plus other home ownership costs that are covered under rental fees (insurance, rates, maintenance, etc). And usually home ownership costs more than straight renting, the hope is that capital gains is worth the extra cost plus loss in opportunity.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 1:18pm 1739751510

ttp...I've cashed in my cap gain, however my reference was in respect of saver/non homeowners - and in real time, not yesteryear.

The decline in house values is transferred to savers as a tax free cap gain on the buying power of their savings.

It's their turn now.

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 9:37am 1739738226

Greg has tossed another grenade

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 9:42am 1739738539

The article is just stating facts. Can't argue with facts, there is more stock and people are asking less for their homes.

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 9:54am 1739739260

It’s a fact grenade, expect spruikers to dive on it and protect others from the reality (apologies for using the word spruiker).

by Dgm | 17th Feb 25, 9:38am 1739738299

Tragic end to the housing market.. listings up, asking prices falling, CV's falling, migration falling, job ads falling, rents falling, inflation rising, unemployment rising, list keeps going on..

by notreally | 17th Feb 25, 10:26am 1739741198

"End"? Do you know something the rest of us don't know?

by huttman | 17th Feb 25, 11:00am 1739743220

. listings up, asking prices falling, CV's falling, migration falling, job ads falling, rents falling, inflation rising, unemployment rising, list keeps going on.

for years people are asking for price falls.

this is what price falls look like.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 11:13am 1739744006

Too soon to call, too.

Last time hard times came around for property the Reserve Bank spent circa $10 billion of taxpayer money on welfare handouts to property and banking (FLP) in case prices might fall.

MPs are heavily invested in property. What chance we might see more attempts at welfarism for property, beyond borrowing to fund tax cuts for landlords?

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 11:23am 1739744615

You cannot stop the falls, but you can plan to have ambulances at the bottom of the cliff.

Lower FHBer houses are a very good thing. Lower boomer house prices equals lower quality retirements (if they only have this equity for retirement.). You cannot eat the house, though Cam Bagrie will let you lend against it to eat. Equity Withdrawal is going to be a growth business, he has positioned himself very well.

If its only Ranui type shit boxes that get lower, our young people will keep leaving.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 11:14am 1739744099

Everyone wants housing to be cheaper, just not theirs.

by the Joneses | 17th Feb 25, 12:46pm 1739749568

I am OK with all house prices dropping. Including my own.

by Eschaton | 17th Feb 25, 9:54am 1739739261

Not unexpected, economy is jacked & government policy not helping.

Population continues to grow however, with mumerings of relaxation of immigration and foreign 'investment' rules.

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 25, 9:58am 1739739493

More Sushi chefs and Uber drivers, living the Kiwi dream of 15x to a shabby West Auck 3beddy.

Yeah, that will save the mid death rattle, dying Ponzi....not.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 10:02am 1739739720

Some of those Ranui developments make flat bush look nice.

if owned, how will they ever appreciate in value to let you onto the next rung of the poopertty ladder....

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 9:59am 1739739598

By stating so openly that we need direct foreign investment to save our economy, it should be obvious to all but the most mentally challenged, that housing is not going to supply the credit pulse to save us here.

Act accordingly.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 17th Feb 25, 10:04am 1739739854

Friends just sold their Kelburn house for 150k more than they thought. Individual situations can be quite healthy.

by Houses Overpriced | 17th Feb 25, 10:08am 1739740098

Think it's a typo, didn't you 'mean' 500k above?

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 10:15am 1739740544

To quote my friend TTP "Long live the humble anecdote".

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 10:31am 1739741488

Is this the stable footing the NZ Housing market is on, that he speaks of?

Is TTP really a convicted fraudster ?

stay tuned, same bat channel....

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 10:38am 1739741914

TTP, have you been playing tennis, or are you taking a break from the courts?

by KH | 17th Feb 25, 11:28am 1739744890

I take notice of anecdotes. Just as I carefully examine Greg's chart.

Especially when they don't say what I wish.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 11:40am 1739745625

I agree with that UB. Many sellers are still holding out with their prices in the hope an uninformed or desperate buyer will pay up. It happens.

by dubious | 17th Feb 25, 12:37pm 1739749050

So they "thought" wrong? How much you "think" something is worth is kind of meaningless as it is subjective and dependent upon the experience/competency/ability of the person making the assessment. Was it backed by a property valuation or anything?

by Houses Overpriced | 17th Feb 25, 10:06am 1739740019

Housing is overpriced, reality is finally settling in,

2025 will be the year of big declines, followed by a couple of years of stagnation.. until the balance is equal on both buyers and sellers..

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 10:13am 1739740416

yes this is called clearance then the accumulation phase....

buy this stage of a crash no one wants to ever own an investor property again.

the question is how far down is that clearance

by Houses Overpriced | 17th Feb 25, 10:15am 1739740547

Might need the prophet back again

by toad in the hole | 17th Feb 25, 10:19am 1739740764

Anyone have any thoughts on why Gisborne is bucking the trend?

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 10:27am 1739741252

I think it’s like Tauranga, with cashed-up retirees leaving Auckland, leaving a few bagholders behind. The pot has come off the boil.

by Zwifter | 17th Feb 25, 1:02pm 1739750559

You would be correct. Its the perfect move for the mortgage free Aucklander who no longer needs to work. You get a far better house for the money with enough left over for a decent size TD and toys.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 10:32am 1739741576

I would guess that cyclone damage may have created short term demand?

by toad in the hole | 17th Feb 25, 11:21am 1739744506

This is my suspicion. Auction clearance at 55% over the weekend with pretty strong prices I thought. Listed rentals have climbed quite a bit over the 5 months I have been monitoring. Sucks as I am an FHB looking in this region and I can't quite tell who is buying.

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 11:25am 1739744700

Where is this 55%?

by toad in the hole | 17th Feb 25, 11:37am 1739745437

I watched a RW auction on Saturday, Gisborne

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 11:40am 1739745637

Ah, small town and sample size. Some regional towns still doing OK but for how long?

by Sam Hill | 17th Feb 25, 10:37am 1739741861

There isn't one homogenous housing market in New Zealand.You can see from the property price index at the bottom of the article that there are variations in supply and demand, particularly with people wanting to live by the better beaches.

When people can get a mortgage rate between 4-5% then there will be some reasonable price increases in areas like the Bay of Plenty.

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 10:46am 1739742388

Don't forget Riverhead

by Thats All Folks | 17th Feb 25, 11:16am 1739744187

😂

by Sam Hill | 17th Feb 25, 12:15pm 1739747758

Is this some kind of in joke?

by interesting1234 | 17th Feb 25, 12:30pm 1739748634

There was, until recently, a guy here who would never cease harping on about a property he was developing in riverhead and how he wad going to make a lot of money on it, encouraging anyone and everyone to buy into riverhead, borrow a million and make a fortune. His choices aren't ageing well currently, possibly why he isn't posting here any longer.

by TronMVP | 17th Feb 25, 6:05pm 1739768722

I believe he was banned from posting, rather than he chose to stop posting.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 12:39pm 1739749173

There used to be a poster on here who was doing property dev in Riverhead, no matter what happened he would post how good things where are in Riverhead.

Most of these guys who Spruik a single suburb, but never comment on other topics should be ignored...

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 1:21pm 1739751660

Is the ChChc promoter next?

by The Man3 | 17th Feb 25, 6:54pm 1739771682

The truth of the matter is that I promote ChCh because it is the best city in NZ for property investment and lifestyle.

The people going on about prices dropping or going to drop has been going on here for the last decade.

I do not deal in the North Island property market but it has seemed to be overpriced and not good value for a long time

The ChCh market is where the successful property investors operate.

by DIYman | 17th Feb 25, 7:59pm 1739775591

Christchurch is set to take off, affordable accomodation , IT businesses expanding , manufacturing expanding, look at Hamilton Jet. Not only is Christchurch holding its own , but the holiday home market of Akaroa and Kaikoura keeps trundling along behind. Wolfbrook have just built a block in Kaikoura. Biluders still busy in Christchurch

by powerupkiwi | 17th Feb 25, 1:04pm 1739750680

There kind of is though. You’ll see ebbs in random markets, but property crashes tend to take down all regions

by Zachary Smith | 17th Feb 25, 11:14am 1739744086

People need to keep things in perspective. Five years ago there were more houses listed on TradeMe than there are today. A drop of 0.8% in asking price is miniscule.

by Amokk | 17th Feb 25, 11:30am 1739745013

Perspective? Alright, here’s some. House prices in New Zealand shot up over 40% during COVID, then dropped about 19% from the 2021 peak. A 0.8% dip might not sound like much, but it’s movement in the right direction. For years, first-home buyers have been priced out while investors raked in the profits. If prices keep softening, maybe - just maybe -housing can become something people live in again, not just an asset class for the wealthy.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 17th Feb 25, 11:51am 1739746284

The world of the 20 something FHB looks very different now.

- unstable unemployment ( government employees need to be very worried)

- unstable global world order.

- AI, climate change, wars and so on driven unexpected changes

House prices, job security, rents, inflation, world event and incomes need to be stable to motivate young people to buy houses. All are messy. Safer to rent and keep savings in the bank for unexpected events (redundancy or a move overseas)

Investors are unlikely to expand housing portfolios vs diversifying. Especially those individuals/boomers now approaching retirement. Better to hedge now.

Expect rents and house prices to continue to fall for a few years yet. Sound investment is in areas to be positively impacted by AI, climate and military tech.

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 12:17pm 1739747862

" If prices keep softening, maybe - just maybe -housing can become something people live in again"

For owner occupier buyers to be aware of:

Former prime minister Sir Bill English is optimistic that New Zealand’s house prices are going to trend downwards, in real terms at least.

“Our housing is too expensive,” English told delegates to the INFINZ (Institute of Finance Professionals New Zealand Inc) conference at Auckland’s Cordis Hotel on Monday.

“If we successfully deal with housing affordability, your house prices are not going to go up for the next 15 years, much.”

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/business/350451961/get-used-it-sir-bill-…

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 2:23pm 1739755389

An real life example of first home buyers in Wellington who bought at the peak. They're in negative equity (i.e loss of over 100% of their equity deposit, which could be their entire life time of savings). Bolded words are my highlights for emphasis.

"I met a couple recently who bought their first home in Wellington at the end of 2021 and are now feeling – quite frankly - scared.

She works in the public sector, and he’s in the construction industry. The headlines suggest their local council rates will soon go up, despite the valuation of their home having fallen 25% (or more).

Their hard-fought deposit, which they scraped together using their KiwiSaver and years of savings, was 20% of that 2021 purchase price – so on paper that entire deposit has been wiped out. If they sold at today’s valuation, they would have no savings and still owe money to the bank.

She has so far survived two rounds of redundancies – but they’re scared about what the future holds. Didn’t they do everything right? They played by the apparent rules of the game – work hard, save hard, buy a house. That’s the conveyor belt to security that society sold them. Instead, they feel like they have been financially punched in the face."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360582273/katie-wesney-ready-anything-…

Owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR

by Independent_Observer | 17th Feb 25, 2:28pm 1739755724

The exact situation there were a few commentators on here warning about around the time of their purchase - to which we were abused as doom gloom merchants by those who benefit from ever rising house prices.

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 2:50pm 1739757041

"The exact situation there were a few commentators on here warning about around the time of their purchase"

Exactly.

"- to which we were abused as doom gloom merchants by those who benefit from ever rising house prices. "

These were attempts to discredit people like you (who were warning the general public about elevated house price risks) by those with their undisclosed vested selfish financial interests.

After all, those with the vested interests need to put food on their table and pay for their accommodation costs (most likely a mortgage).

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 3:17pm 1739758663

This guy might have been very disappointed at the time of being refused a sufficiently large mortgage to purchase a residential real estate dwelling, but being rejected from the bank was actually a blessing in disguise. Being rejected was better than getting approved to overpay for a house, be stuck in negative equity (and a loss of his entire life time of savings) in 2025. He can be a buyer today with a lower mortgage.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/11/first-home-buyer-not-very-…;

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 4:01pm 1739761263

My exact situation..

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 7:24pm 1739773443

"My exact situation.."

You are Kyle Welch?

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 7:50pm 1739775008

incorrect

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 11:40am 1739745607

What did monthly sales look like 5 years ago, compared with today ?

as buyers are learning, asking is not a hard price, its an opening gambit

by Kohukohunui | 17th Feb 25, 1:08pm 1739750888

A drop of 0.8% in asking price is miniscule.

Over a month? Not at all.

by Richardfromauckland | 17th Feb 25, 11:22am 1739744535

Though prices in Auckland's city fringe suburbs seems to be holding up. Anyone got any insights into movements around town? Downsizers from mission bay moving to grey lynn?

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 11:51am 1739746268

Or say from high maintenance Remuera older homes to Stonefields low maintenance.

Vendors keep seeing a few decent sales figures so are holding out. but there are not enough buyers for them all..

Its musical chairs, which is fun with 5 year olds, but may cause hip problems with 80 year olds.

by Richardfromauckland | 17th Feb 25, 11:58am 1739746701

Yeah. Def a few substantive sales in Grey Lynn/Ponsonby being used as marketing tools.

Tools being the operative word

by Eschaton | 17th Feb 25, 12:49pm 1739749799

Auckland is huge, people are contantly trying move to a 'better' location.

by Averageman | 17th Feb 25, 11:57am 1739746654

Listings up, sales down, spec town needing real equity for DTI requirements - all equals ....down down down in ponzi town.

by WestieAJ | 17th Feb 25, 12:15pm 1739747756

Erica is the Minister of Immigration and Education. The gold plating (TBA) on the visa will be the ability for your children to study as domestic students in our tertiary institutes. Scrape together 5 mil to put in a managed fund (you get the money back in 3 years + interest) The right to buy a nice house (TBA) for the wife and kids to live in while you carry on doing whatever you do wherever you do it. Meanwhile, your kids can study for an internationally recognised/transportable professional degree sponsored by the New Zealand taxpayer.

This is a thinly veiled scam to inject liquidity into the property market. We have seen this movie before, and the ending was a bit stink. Australia ended screenings. It turns out the ticket price doesn't cover the cost of putting on the show.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 1:02pm 1739750555

You will not even need to scape together, as long as you have security the big 4 banks will lend you the 5 mil.... play the game son.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 1:18pm 1739751484

Wow. So Erica Stanford is going to effectively make working Kiwi taxpayers pay for foreign buyers to come in and purchase property, to help property values?

Really feels like smarmy scamming of the younger generations.

by Greeneggsandham | 17th Feb 25, 12:17pm 1739747875

I have been looking in the Wellington region and noticing a clear trend of auctions/deadline sales failing and then moving to enquiries over $X, followed by price drops later on. Open homes seem busy but are not translating into sales. Anecdotally, I am hearing people unable to fill rooms in flats when trying to leave other regions or go overseas for other job opportunities, sometimes having to wait until the lease ends. Students flats also being harder to fill, especially ones with 6+ rooms. It seems like the Wellington market is circling the drain. Anyone else with observations who monitor this area?

by interesting1234 | 17th Feb 25, 12:34pm 1739748894

It has been the same since the downturn started and people stopped buying in aggregate. Tenders, auctions died for a long time, offers over, delist then relist under different title, followed by price by negotiation, followed by delist and relist again 6months later. It is a cycle - the key is to track how many times places get listed, any price changes and then you can offer accordingly, knowing the pace you may want has been relisted a couple times under a couple of agents for over 6 months and the vendors are therefore more likely to be starting to consider reality.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 12:57pm 1739750239

The five stages of grief

Denial: A defense mechanism that helps people protect themselves from shock. People may refuse to accept the reality of the loss.
Anger: People face the pain of their loss as reality sets in.
Bargaining: People dwell on what they could've done to prevent the loss.
Depression: People face the inevitability of the loss and may feel intense sadness and despair.
Acceptance: People come to terms with the loss.

we are not yet in Anger, when it comes , and its starting too, Luxy is going to cop it

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 1:25pm 1739751908

Had my youngest got to Aus a year ago. She reckons there are very few of her crowd left in NZ.

Apart form job opportunity and lifestyle, one thing she doesn't miss is the requirement to engage in pagan worship at morning start-up.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 1:38pm 1739752694

Question for all Australians, why is the welcome to country in English?

I cannot imagine NZ Iwi lowering themselves to this here?

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 2:24pm 1739755447

what exactly are you referring to?

the requirement to engage in pagan worship at morning start-up

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 2:47pm 1739756869

Where have you been?

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 2:51pm 1739757086

are talking about prayer?

If so i don't know where she was working that required prayer at start up. i've never experienced that in my whole life in NZ.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 2:59pm 1739757542

I find it extraordinary that you haven't. Another family member says her staff are bordering on a work to rule. New management is having half and hour wasted very morning as they 'pray' to an imaginary friend. This is in health. But its prolific in all public services. Seen DOC release a bird lately or open a walk? New road...you name it. And all on your dime old chap...it's not done for free.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 3:12pm 1739758367

I'm sure it exists, relatively minor and not a concern of mine by any means.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 3:40pm 1739760019

Jesus wept. We still have prayers in parliament too.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 4:03pm 1739761411

Even Karakia has elements of a Christian prayer.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 3:39pm 1739759964

Pauline Christianity?

by Sarah Mcdealy | 20th Feb 25, 11:15am 1740003344

Yeah, I’ve been seeing the same pattern in a few other regions too. Feels like a waiting game—buyers holding off, and sellers adjusting slowly. I came across this breakdown of what’s happening in different markets, thought it was a solid overview: https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets. Be interesting to see if things shift again later in the year.

by powerupkiwi | 17th Feb 25, 1:03pm 1739750599

Just one more cut bro. I promise bro, it’s going to turn around. Hold in there. Don’t list.

by Dgm | 17th Feb 25, 1:29pm 1739752165

Take it easy bro, which part of your body are you trying to cut?

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 5:52pm 1739767958

And so it begins...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kumeu-flooding-crisis-leaders-push-for-to…

All foreshadowed first in the USA. Extreme weather events, Insurance increases, denial and attempt to rebuild, finally acceptance. But remember climate change is definitely a hoax.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 8:01pm 1739775697

I wonder how his piece of dirt will revalue once they abandon the local township.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 11:01pm 1739786471

A stampede of buyers who don't believe in climate change will descend like vultures and make a killing, maybe?

by Chaosinflesh | 18th Feb 25, 12:14am 1739790853

Before we left NZ, we were [quite seriously] talking to an RE about a flooding swamp to put a houseboat on.

In hindsight, ablutions might've been a problem though, no one wants a flooded septic tank.

We determined the asking price to be 3x what we thought it was worth, so left it alone.

by CN - new | 17th Feb 25, 11:19pm 1739787577

Can apply this framework provided (courtesy of IT Guy), to those affected property owners.

The five stages of grief:

1) Denial: A defense mechanism that helps people protect themselves from shock. People may refuse to accept the reality of the loss.

2) Anger: People face the pain of their loss as reality sets in.

3) Bargaining: People dwell on what they could've done to prevent the loss.

4) Depression: People face the inevitability of the loss and may feel intense sadness and despair.

5) Acceptance: People come to terms with the loss

Natural disaster forces owner to sell dwelling and accept price offered by local government. The only buyer of the dwelling is local government.

Local government buys damaged house in flood zone from residential dwelling owner and the amount paid is below the outstanding mortgage amount. Forced into negative equity due to natural disaster and price offered by only buyer.

Refer 3:09 of the audio

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201897224…

by ghytresd | 18th Feb 25, 9:46am 1739825181

I've thoroughly enjoyed reading this article comment sesh, but have now stayed up well beyond bedtime