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Realestate.co.nz says vendors need to price their properties to meet the current market rather than hold out for 2021 prices

Property / news
Realestate.co.nz says vendors need to price their properties to meet the current market rather than hold out for 2021 prices
Photo: Nick Hoke - Panoramio/Wikimedia
Photo: Nick Hoke - Panoramio/Wikimedia

The number of residential properties available for sale on Realestate.co.nz reached a 12-year high for the time of year in July.

The property website had 33,252 residential properties available for sale at the end of July, up 9.3% compared to July last year.

That stock increase occurred even though the 7698 new listings in July was virtually unchanged (-0.5%) from the 7737 it received in July last year.

Total stock for sale on the website has steadily declined from its summer peak of 37,638 at the end of March to 33,252 at the end of July, (-11.%) although it's normal for stock levels to decline over winter.

However, the total amount of stock available for sale at the end of last month was the highest it has been for the month of July since 2014, putting it at a 12-year high for the time of year.

July's high stock level is particularly significant because the number of properties for sale usually starts to increase around August in anticipation of the spring/summer season when the market is more active.

If the market follows its usual trend, that spring uplift will be starting from already elevated stock levels this year.

The high number of properties for sale, combined with rising mortgage interest rates and a sluggish economy, has created a buyer's market and kept a lid on prices over autumn/winter, so these latest figures suggest that situation could continue into spring.

Reflecting higher stock levels, prices have been in decline this year, with the average asking price on Realestate.co.nz declining for five consecutive months, from $898,677 in February to $828,345 in July, a drop of $70,322 (-7.8%) over that period.

This suggests vendors will need to have realistic price expectations based on current market conditions in order to achieve a sale.

"Buyers have more choice than they did a year ago, yet they are still willing to act when a property is priced for today's market," Realestate.co.nz General Manager Customers Vanessa Williams said.

"The vendors getting the best results are the ones who have a well-marketed property that's priced to the current market conditions, rather than holding out for 2021 prices," she said.

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26 Comments

More unsold stock, sales volume soft, prices down, rents down, immigration down, stagflation roaring, consents for more new stock up, Council rates up, insurance up. Its a specu disaster.

All this before the tax question in November...

Edit ...TOP to 6% in latest poll.

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There would have been a lot of similar comments 12 years ago when stock levels were higher, the outcome didn't end up as expected. 

Not saying it will happen again, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out.

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Sellers have gambled on a market recovery to eventuate, but reality has arrived instead.

The house directly across the road from us has been on the market for over a year, still no price indication on the listing, no foot traffic.

We’ve just been advised by our landlord that property investment is not for them, it’s going on the market too

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the next wave down will be brutal, it will be on buyers terms

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You could likely buy the landlord out at 2015 price fairly soon, or 2010 later on, if you are positioned to??

Throw the strung out LL a bone?  He has probably had to topup the joints mortgage for years......only to see capital losses mounting up.

Put him out of his misery.......at a cheap price:)

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We’re positioned, but seller expectations are still completely delusional so we’ll happily rent for another year and then reassess.

They did offer us first dibs.  And I felt bad instantly turning them down, so held off a couple of days to “think about it”.  Reality being there was zero thinking required.  Might still be on the market in 12 months time

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My Grandad bought a place in Ponsonby for 1000 pounds in the old days. Is that coming soon too? 

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Sure, whatever granddadykins or his offsprung thinks.

Yes the truth of the current market, is now have NZ average house values BACK 7 YEARS TO 2019 REAL VALUATIONS, on average. 



The next coming downleg in values, will hit 2014 or 2015 and from there, it's in the lap of the ponzi gods.

Real Residential Property Prices for New Zealand (QNZR628BIS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

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as in a famous conversation between Turkish and a gypsy from the movie Snatch

Proper Fuc&&

the first stop loss is always the cheapest, after that they get more expensive, while i feel sorry for Ma and Pa they are the sucker bag holders that exist at the end of every tale of woe in the investment world.

Aussie that lucky country is about to implode property wise, I would turn away from the fan for a bit

 

Up the WAHS

 

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Perhaps invest in Ozzy copper mining for a bit and try get out before the AI bubble pops.

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Realestate.co.nz says vendors need to price their properties to meet the current market rather than hold out for 2021 prices

100% what I'm seeing at the coalface.

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How Labor’s budget property tax changes are accelerating the housing price slump in major Australian cities

Lucky country has run out of luck...

Like what type of NZ Idiot thinks you will get 2021 price here, market is down 17-25%.

 

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I am a bit confused, aren't these two contradictory?

The number of residential properties available for sale on Realestate.co.nz reached a 12-year high for the time of year in July.

Total stock for sale on the website has steadily declined from its summer peak of 37,638 at the end of March to 33,252 at the end of July, (-11.%) 

I would think that the number of "properties for sale" and the number of "stock for sale" is the same thing ?

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The Ponzi is starting to look like it's not behaving like nature intended. But what does it actually mean? My reckon is fewer kitchen renos, winter holiday plans to Fiji / Queenie sidelined, and declining sales of nice-to-haves at the supermarket deli. 

Not sure about the bigger picture. But considering my reckons, I will hang on to my thesis that the Ponzi could eventually start eating itself - the more it declines, the less spent into the economy meaning lower business revenues and profits, which impacts wage / income growth providing lower incentive / greater barriers to speculate on the 7-10 year theory.       

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Agreed.  The ponzi cheerleaders have been waiting for the Phoenix to rise from the ashes..  they got Ouroboros instead

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I think that many in Aotearoa / Aussie believe our Ponzis are anti-fragile. By "many", that means the ruling elite, experts, media, and the hoi polloi. 

So what happens in other parts of the Anglosphere doesn't apply to us. And what happened in Japan and China is simply impossible here - different economic structures.

So it's an implicit belief that our Ponzis are too well designed. That is something that I have seriously thought about as well, but I can never get a convincing explanation at the water cooler and at the BBQs. Even Granny Herald can't articulate it. 

That being said, the Chicken Littles may have plausible narratives, but they don't convince me either.   

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Recency and confirmation bias are strong here based on 25 years of the same boom bust cycle. Those that suffer from these are usually unaware of the mechanisms driving the housing ponzi, and are never happy to hear or accept the logic and rationale around the water cooler or bbq.

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I would very much agree with that.  It reminds me the Rainbow song...'Can't happen here'.  In the UK I remember being told in 2006....'another housing crash, it will not happen, believe me my husband works in Treasury/a bank etc'.  A colleague used to write to the Central Bank about a boom popping, they responded - there is little to suggest a boom is underway!  The pop happened, prices down 20-25% (depending on the data).    

The easiest to fool are the 'educated', they tend to be far removed from the coal face, and their only window on reality is historical data, which can often mislead - house price data in a downturn tend to be 'false' in the sense that only good houses sell.  The rubbish stays put, and if it were to sell, would do so at a steep discount, and push the price index down.  A bit of work has been done on this in the UK. 

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It's a wider blast radius imho it impacts any spend flow that has any discretionary component.

there is a great article here re how we are all feeling poor due to the inflationary impacts of the expenses you cannot avoid

Here’s why everyone (even high earners) feels broke in NZ right now | Stuff

Most property investors are trying to hang in there hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel

but as they see their $2-300 top ups just going to the bank they will start to bail, this is going to put real pressure on prices.

 

 

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It'll be interesting to see how many come up for sale post election. I know many a boomer locally waiting to see before looking to list in the last hope of something to push capital gain.

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Many rentals are in rental areas... FHBers often want school zones.

many FHBers now days are 35-40 years old.

IE imagine you own a classic Auckland rental in Manurewa... are you going to take a hit selling this?

 

 

 

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Good point. What I think a lot of sellers don’t understand is that in a declining market the longer you wait the further your offer gets from market. So the old adage of the agent overquoting then waiting for the ever rising market to come up to match the original overpriced quote: is redundant yet the agents are probably still sticking to this model whereby doing their clients a massive disservice. 

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We are looking at the market re. purchase for family outside of the major cities, and what do we find:

Vast numbers of family homes, most done up, around the $750 - $800k range, but those prices are at 2021/22 prices, and as far as I can tell in areas with no well paid jobs.  These are family homes.  Is there a market for such properties?

Many of what I would term basic boxes: in need of new kitchen etc, no effective heating, two beds, one basic basic bathroom, little land - all for circa $500k when anywhere near an urban area.

A fair number of properties for sale have asking prices below purchase price (when bought in 2020-2022) - a small but growing number who will be making a loss.

A good deal of empty properties for sale, properties that are all too often in good condition, have been done up, owners have left/moved on.   

Ownership costs - Nelson, Picton for instance - $6,000 rates!!!  For what.  Throw in a $3,000 heating bill etc and it is $10,000 just to run the place.

Finally - stock quality.  Coming from a different nation one thing you quickly learn about Kiwi houses - they are usually cold.  Even when insulated, masses of glass render houses cold in winter (unless triple glazed).  Yes, the sun helps, but there is less of it in the winter, whilst in the summer glass renders the house uncomfortable. 

Conclusion: I cannot see how homes will be shifted without price drops, even then is the stock for sale suited to current demographics, as in young people who are broke?  

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Nelson and Tasman differ. Tasman district recently upper their rates and stated the average was 9.2% however the community facebook pages are awash with residents crying foul that they have had 14-16% rates increases. Nelson city council rates was somewhere around 6-7% from memory.

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I am not sure Rates are cheap anywhere anymore...

https://www.opespartners.co.nz/tax/rates

interestingly compared as rates to average weekly rent above.

 

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https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/361016729/new-zealands-housing-do…

New Zealand’s housing downturn has now become the biggest in 46 years, new analysis of more than 75 years of property data shows.

It’s overtaken the slumps of the 1980s and the Global Financial Crisis, and dwarfed only by the downturn that began in September 1974 and ended in December 1980 when Robert Muldoon was in power, and house prices dropped 38% in real terms.

“That makes the current downturn the second-biggest real drop that we’ve got in history ( across 75 years of data) and the second-longest in terms of peak-to-trough,” says Gareth Kiernan, managing director and chief forecaster at Infometrics.

Kiernan says it’s longer and deeper than the slump between June 1984 and December 1986, when rapid free-market reforms known as Rogernomics saw real house prices drop by 9.4%.

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