The high level of unsold housing stock for sale is likely to continue weighing on the market as its heads into spring.
Stock for sale measures in July were all well up on July last year, while reported sales were down, meaning buyers continued to have the upper hand in mid-winter.
Property website Realestate.co.nz reported 33,252 residential properties for sale on its site at the end of July, not only up 9.3% compared to July last year, but also the most properties the website has had available for sale at the end of July since 2014. That puts stock levels at a 12-year high.
The overhang of unsold properties, the number of properties remaining unsold after being on the market for more than a month, was looking even worse.
Interest.co.nz estimates there was an overhang of about 25,500 residential properties at the end of July, up 12.6% compared to July last year, putting the overhang at its highest level since 2014.
However, sales were headed in the opposite direction.
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand provisionally reported 6090 residential sales in July, down 3.6% compared to July last year.
While high stock levels and lacklustre sales volumes point to a market that's likely to remain subdued, a couple of figures suggest at least it may not be getting any worse.
The first is that new listings coming to market were almost flat compared to a year ago.
Realestate.co.nz received 7698 new residential listings in July, just 39 fewer properties (-0.5%) compared to July last year.
On top of that, the number of properties dropping out of the market was down significantly.
Dropouts are properties that have either been taken off the market completely, or are still technically for sale but are no longer being actively marketed.
Interest.co.nz estimates there were around 3100 residential dropouts in July this year, down 7.6% compared to July last year.
A flat number of new listings and fewer dropouts supports anecdotal evidence that vendors are starting to become more realistic in their price expectations, which, if the trend continues, could reduce the backlog of properties for sale over time.
However, all of the above figures relate to the market in mid-winter.
Whether the market continues to strongly favour buyers during the busier spring and summer months will likely depend on how many properties come to market and how realistic their vendors are in regards to price.
6 Comments
This huge number of monthly dropouts and gigantic number of listings, will eventually move.....
As the NZ property market drops down, another -20%, over the next 2 to 3 years.
This crash will be the biggest in NZ and perhaps world history, for last 100 years.
NZ Winning gold again!
"another -20%, over the next 2 to 3 years" - I actually agree that is possible.
My prediction has been flat prices for a while now (loss in real terms). But with interest rates heading up again, its like a kick in the guts to a flat-at-best market.
4% inflation at the moment, over 3 years is 12.5%. So it would only take a pretty minor drop in nominal values to get close to a 20% fall in real terms over 3 years. Easily possible. Consents have really started ticking up, and this low bottomed out higher than the early 2000's peak in building activity. New supply will continue to put downward pressure on prices. The market has structurally changed.
Kudos to those that paid down the minimums on their mortgage and put the rest into index funds. Or even better, stayed renting and did the same!
That's one of many problems. Increasing interest rates, a dud economy, low net immigration, potential tax changes, more homes permitted by councils, boomers cashing up, ...
Speculords be happy. A tax free loss... is still tax free. Jokes.
Nothing kills property values like cutting mass immigration.
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