China's alignment with Russia has driven 75% of Australians to consider it 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years

“Canberra’s obsession with ‘a great and powerful friend’ is unnecessarily creating ‘a great and powerful enemy’”.

That’s according to an editorial this week in The Global Times, the Chinese government’s English language media outlet. The “friend” of course is the United States and the “enemy” China.

Here we go again. Another chapter in the depressing story of deteriorating relations between Australia and China.  

And yet it started so well. Back in May Anthony Albanese received a letter of congratulation from the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang just hours after he was elected Australian Prime Minister. The PM responded with a letter of appreciation.

For a moment at least, it looked like a new Labor government might herald a major reset in the China/Australia relationship.

However, in his first days in office Albanese publicly stated that China needs to drop its tariffs on Australian exports if it wants to mend relations between the two countries. He also reaffirmed Australia’s commitment to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the US, India, and Japan, and to the AUKUS security pact with the US and the UK, arrangements unquestionably aimed at containing the rise of China.

At the latest NATO meeting in Madrid, Albanese described China’s treatment of Australian exports as “economic coercion”. And in recent weeks his government has invested significant time and effort to block China’s expansionary aims in the Pacific, and in particular to minimise any prospect of a Chinese military base in the Solomon Islands.

The Australian and Chinese governments are at least talking to one another again after years of diplomatic silence. Penny Wong, Australia’s Foreign Minister has met with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. He presented her with four demands/suggestions for what Australia needs to do to restore relations with China. However, Anthony Albanese later replied that “Australia doesn’t respond to demands. We respond to our own national interest.”

There’s also been a meeting between Richard Marles, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, and the Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe. However, any goodwill from that meeting appears to have been erased by pro-American, anti-Chinese statements from Marles during his recent visit to Washington.

The Global Times asserted that the US visit of Marles “raised more doubts about the willingness of the new Australian administration to improve relations with China”.

So, it’s business as usual. The Australian government talking tough on China and the Chinese government returning fire.

What do the Australian people think of all this? If the 2022 Lowy Institute Poll is correct, a majority of them are probably comfortable with their new government’s foreign policy.

The Lowy Institute is an independent and highly regarded Australian think tank that focuses on foreign affairs. It’s been polling Australians on a range of international issues, including China, for fifteen years.

The results of the 2022 Lowy Poll are consistent with the worsening relationship between Australia and China in the last few years. They paint a picture of declining trust and growing fear.

When asked how much they trust China “to act responsibly in the world”, 88% of respondents replied “not at all” or “not very much”. Only 12% expressed any trust in China, down from 52% in 2018.  

This year only 11% expressed any confidence that Chinese President Xi Jinping would “do the right thing regarding world affairs”. That is a collapse from 43% in 2018.

Back in 2016 when the Lowy Poll asked respondents which country they viewed as Australia’s “best friend in Asia”, China was in first place with 30%. Six years later it is second from the bottom on 6%.

That is the period during which China has morphed for many Australians (and many Australian media outlets and politicians) from major trading partner and economic saviour to geopolitical adversary and economic bully.

This is expressly addressed in the Lowy Poll. In 2018, 82% of respondents saw China as “more of an economic partner” to Australia and just 12% saw it as “more of a security threat”. In 2022, there has been a complete reversal with only 33% now seeing China as more of an economic partner and 63% seeing it as more of a security threat.

Significantly, in 2022 64% of Australians view “a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan” as a critical threat to Australia. That’s up from 52% in 2021 and just 35% in 2020. No doubt the escalating concern about Taiwan has been fueled by China’s rapid military build-up and by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Along similar lines, 75% of respondents in 2022 consider it “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years.

That may partly explain why support for the ANZUS alliance is so high. 87% describe it as “very important” or “fairly important” to Australia’s security. 

Given these numbers, Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles are on reasonably safe political ground domestically when they travel the world bemoaning Chinese expansionism and reinforcing ties with Australia’s traditional allies.

Of course, that begs the question – are the politicians just responding to public opinion or are the public following the lead of their politicians? Probably a bit of both.

Unsurprisingly, a recent article by an editor in The Global Times lays the blame for the anti-China “hostility” in the Lowy Poll on Australian politicians. 

Australia will eventually pay dearly for the irresponsible vicious words and deeds of their leaders. Canberra has already pushed itself into a vicious circle in antagonizing China and Albanese has a real opportunity to pull himself out. But will he? Only time will tell.

The reality is that if relations are to improve, it will take movement on both sides.

There is one glimmer of good news this week – rumours that China is getting ready to lift its ban on Australian coal imports. It remains to be seen whether that is driven by commercial necessity or diplomatic goodwill. 

Ross Stitt is a freelance writer and tax lawyer with a PhD in political science. He is a New Zealander based in Sydney. His articles are part of our 'Understanding Australia' series.