Chris Hipkins the sole nominee and will be the next Prime Minister

Public Policy / news

Hipkins sole candidate for Labour leader in caucus vote; expected to be endorsed tomorrow afternoon and become PM soon after

21st Jan 23, 10:15am by Bernard Hickey

Chris Hipkins, the sole nominee to be the Labour Caucus leader and next PM of New Zealand. Photo by Lynn Grieveson for The Kaka.

Education, Police and Public Service Minister Chris Hipkins is set to become New Zealand's next Prime Minister.

Labour Whip Duncan Webb announced in a statement this morning distributed by the PM"s office that Chris Hipkins was the sole nominee for the role of Labour Caucus Leader and the Caucus would meet tomorrow at 1pm to endorse him as party leader. Nominations were due by 9am this morning.

It is expected he would then be sworn in by the Governor General to replace Jacinda Ardern, who announced on Thursday she was standing down after almost five years in the role.

"Chris Hipkins is the sole nominee to become the Labour Party Leader, Labour Whip Duncan Webb announced this morning.

“The Labour Party caucus will meet at 1pm on Sunday to endorse the nomination and confirm Chris Hipkins as Party Leader,” Duncan Webb said.

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236 Comments

by bw | 21st Jan 23, 10:29am 1674250155

Hipkins winning the upcoming election will be easy - IF he immediately returns to the undertakings made before the last election that attracted flexible voters like me. Not as part of the coming political campaign promises for October, but right now. Fail with that simple task, and oblivion awaits him and Labour.

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 10:36am 1674250602

He can say almost anything and will never be accountable until 4 years from now in 2026. Providing it has a time horizon for fulfilment of just one year

by Pat.T | 21st Jan 23, 12:44pm 1674258273

Hopkins is the new mouthpiece for the same Labour policies which are making them unpopular as are showing up in the polls.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 11:48am 1674254912

"IF he immediately returns to the undertakings made before the last election"

What "undertakings" are you referring to bw?

by Beanie | 21st Jan 23, 1:18pm 1674260300

I suggest "governing for everyone" would be a great start.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 1:48pm 1674262117

Is that you MS Ardern ? What a typically, beautiful and well-meaning but completely shallow and lacking of any detail response.

What "undertakings" is bw referring to ? Name them, specifically.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 1:57pm 1674262656

I think you’ve misinterpreted someone again. Appreciate that English is not your first language. Heck your English is much better than my French!

Don’t you want ‘governing for everyone’ rather than splintering our nation up? I though you were concerned with co-governance?

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 7:42pm 1674283344

Thanks HM, I have checked the definition of "undertaking" which is "a formal pledge to do something or complete a task". I think it's therefore correct to ask "which undertaking" or task, is bw referring to? "Governing for everyone" falls more in the ideology category IMO. I have also checked the word "ideology", which is: "A system of ideas which forms the basis of economic or political theory"

by Beanie | 21st Jan 23, 2:02pm 1674262944

I remember Jacinda using that phrase in her victory speech. That the government has become so unpopular I suggest is because of unmandated policies and decisions that have actually divided us.

by Blackbeard | 21st Jan 23, 1:30pm 1674261009

National will be very worried. Chris Hipkins ia pretty popular across the board - old, young, male, female, rich, poor.

by Retail shop | 21st Jan 23, 2:57pm 1674266221

Hahahaha. I am choking on my beer. Haha

by Blackbeard | 21st Jan 23, 5:13pm 1674274434

haha...wasn't that your reply when first told about online shopping.

by xingmowang | 21st Jan 23, 10:21am 1674249683

Will he break the record of being the shortest serving PM in NZ?

by IanME | 21st Jan 23, 10:26am 1674250005

No, no he won’t

by Nifty1 | 21st Jan 23, 10:30am 1674250250

He'll be in long enough to really spread his legs...

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:10am 1674252612

At least , he'll be able to put on his CV that he had a stint as the Prime Minister of a democratic nation , something that no one in China can ever aspire to ...

by Fossil Lover | 22nd Jan 23, 8:05am 1674327942

MIQ was democratic? Lockdowns, forced vaccinations, vaccination passports, mask mandates, what difference do we have from the Chinese? We had a totalitarian dictator, who now has abandoned 'Team NZ'.

by the Joneses | 22nd Jan 23, 11:32am 1674340327

"MIQ was democratic?" how was it not? We vote for the people who make the rules. A government who can only enact decisions made by referendum would be ridiculous and unworkable.

"what difference do we have from the Chinese?" They can't go on the proper internet for one, only what the Government allows. The government watches all internet communication and scores their citizens based on what they see. Those scores can stop someone getting a mortgage, event tickets, or a date on a dating app. They were forced to only have one child maximum for a while. If you are following the wrong religion, they may well imprison and torture you. They control all mass media, so no dissenting views are ever published.

A good example of the difference, is in China you could not freely post an anonymous criticism of the government on an online forum. The government would know who you are, remove the post and take action against you till the behavior was stopped.

by Carlos67 | 22nd Jan 23, 1:02pm 1674345756

I think you need to realise that when you get to over a billion people you need to control them and everyone needs to start thinking exactly the same. Look at poxy NZ with only 6 million and the level of control under Labour. Look at the mess the USA is in with 330 million with the country basically cut in half along political lines and rapidly going down the toilet.

by nktokyo | 21st Jan 23, 10:27am 1674250063

The only choice really.

I liked Hooton's NZH column that Labour has more of a chance without Ardern than with.

Luxton is pretty hard to like. Most women voters I've spoken to are particularly put off. He needs to focus on delivery and delivery only.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 11:35am 1674254106

Robertson should have had the backbone and loyalty to the party and stepped up. Believe he coveted being PM even before entering parliament but perhaps there is some health issue nowadays? Hipkins is the only identity capable of leading the government in the debating chamber. Luxon won’t bother him in that regard but the next layer will and so too, even more so, will Seymour. Will be interesting to observe Labour’s performance in the house now having relied almost entirely on Ardern & Robertson to land the punches and counter punches. I for one though, will be glad to see the pouting, gloating and smirking disappear along with the obfuscation and waffle. Was starting to get towards Muldoon at his worst afraid to say.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 10:57am 1674251864

Robbo has become a waffling windbag of late ... he comes over as pompous , arrogant in his knowledge of finance ...

... Hippy seems to be a far more relatable regular beer & bbq guy ... he regularly turned up on NewStalk ZB with Heather or Mike , and succinctly answered questions put to him ... that's a breath of fresh air ...

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 11:57am 1674255422

Gummy: "Hippy seems to be a far more relatable regular beer & bbq guy"

NK Tokyo: "Luxton is pretty hard to like"

You're both right, but it's a shame that we choose our PM based upon "likability" rather than "ability", that's what got us into the current mess by picking smooth talking Ardern as PM.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 12:11pm 1674256296

Hippy has proven his ability in portfolios ... which is why Jacinda lumped him with so many ... Labour has 60 MPs , but very few are trusted with meaningful roles ... Chris got stuff done ... plus , as an added bonus , he seems to be a well grounded regular fella ...

by DDS | 21st Jan 23, 12:46pm 1674258366

Trust me, as someone who works in Government, Chippy really is that incredibly rare breed: a Minister who gets shit done without too much talk or bullshit. He's super easy to deal with, likes things to be done fast and efficiently, and is probably the only Minister in parliament who cares more about getting the thing done than whether the thing sounds/looks good.

There's a reason everyone else keeps asking Chippy to do their homework for them...

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 1:45pm 1674261917

Well if that's truely true, then he's the best PM candidate to lead NZ now and beyond October 2023 !

by profile | 21st Jan 23, 2:05pm 1674263114

As long a we all ignore record excess deaths under his watch. withholding from the public data regarding myocarditis risk and the young, supporting entry into homes without as search warrant, ignoring the UNDR etc, Top man.

https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

Vaccine Boosters for Young Adults: A Risk-Benefit Assessment and Five Ethical Arguments against Mandates at Universities

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206070

https://cranmer.substack.com/p/covid-and-our-kiwi-kids-part-1

by Mountie | 21st Jan 23, 5:13pm 1674274420

Agree DDS. I've seen Ministry documents with his handwritten notes on. Straight to the point, no BS notes and he signs the doc off for full public release, including his handwritten notes.

by profile | 21st Jan 23, 7:49pm 1674283788

No BS unless he is lying about stranded pregnant overseas journalists, suppressing myocarditis in children risk from the public etc . What low standards out country has sunk to. They guy can't run a polytec or get kids to school - and now has the top job.

"It calls into question whether the New Zealand government diligently followed the advice of its medical experts as it claimed, or whether it cut corners on matters of safety as it juggled competing pandemic strategies.

It also calls into question whether the government communicated with the public in a manner which was consistent with the health advice that it was receiving from its experts and which adequately described to the public the risk of myocarditis, stratified by age and sex, so that fully informed consent could be obtained."

https://cranmer.substack.com/p/covid-and-our-kiwi-kids-part-2?r=1q83zj&…

by Nzdan | 21st Jan 23, 11:24pm 1674296653

You can't take individual cases and multiply them. There was one pregnant journalist that, as far as I am aware, had an MIQ slot predetermined but it didn't suit her busy schedule so had an article written about it. There was one kid that had myocarditis in Dunedin, meanwhile Covid itself is apparently 6 time more likely to induce myocarditis than the vaccine. So was that kid doomed anyway?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocarditis-is-more…

by Fossil Lover | 22nd Jan 23, 8:17am 1674328652

Myocarditis accelerated after the experimental gene therapy was applied. The kid was doomed when he was jabbed. Bottom line, the gene therapy does not work and has increased all cause deaths by 10 % in NZ and Pfizer should be held accountable.

by the Joneses | 22nd Jan 23, 11:35am 1674340520

"Myocarditis accelerated after the experimental gene therapy was applied." Was that from the vaccination or Covid? Please show your working.

by profile | 22nd Jan 23, 1:31pm 1674347482

Fill ya boots in the bibliography the joneses. You're welcome.

"Although there was no history of COVID-19 for this patient, immunohistochemistry for SARS-CoV-2 antigens (spike and nucleocapsid proteins) was performed. Surprisingly, only spike protein but no nucleocapsid protein could be detected within the foci of inflammation in both the brain and the heart, particularly in the endothelial cells of small blood vessels. Since no nucleocapsid protein could be detected, the presence of spike protein must be ascribed to vaccination rather than to viral infection. The findings corroborate previous reports of encephalitis and myocarditis caused by gene-based COVID-19 vaccines."

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/10/1651

by profile | 22nd Jan 23, 9:45am 1674333904

You have drunk the Kool aid Nzdan. Read the link above. To prevent one covid hopitalisation in young people you are going to get 18-98 serious adverse events. Hipkins actively surpressed mycoditis risk information from the NZ public (see Cranmers FOI's also above. Hipkins also ignored medical advice to space out gene therapy in young people and ignored advice to only give a single shot. Note the term net harm in the risk-benefit analysis paper.

"...to prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation. Using CDC and sponsor-reported adverse event data, we find that booster mandates may cause a net expected harm: per COVID-19 hospitalisation prevented in previously uninfected young adults, we anticipate 18 to 98 serious adverse events, including 1.7 to 3.0 booster-associated myocarditis cases in males, and 1,373 to 3,234 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity which interferes with daily activities. Given the high prevalence of post-infection immunity, this risk-benefit profile is even less favourable."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206070

by profile | 22nd Jan 23, 9:51am 1674334293

As for the Beliis case Nzdan - Hipkins only publicly apologised when faced with a defamation suit.

"...But getting to this point took the threat of a defamation suit.

"We negotiated with her the public apology that has been released today," Hipkins said."

What are your talking points on the third world truancy rates under Hipkins watch or his polytech fuster cluck?

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/06/miq-stoush-why-it-took-…

by morepork | 21st Jan 23, 1:10pm 1674259812

It goes back further, the charismatic Key was elected over Clark who was in my view the most competent PM we've had while I've been around. Fortunately Key had the competence of English to fall back on

by lowercase capitalist | 21st Jan 23, 11:25am 1674253504

Robbo said that he's been rejected for the top spot twice and wont try a third time.

Plus, I think his smug aura and self congratulatory attitude rub a lot of people the wrong way.

by profile | 21st Jan 23, 1:46pm 1674262007

and there is the small issue of losing taxpayers $10 billion in his LSAP gamble.

by Contrarian | 21st Jan 23, 10:47pm 1674294428

Battle of Christophers in New Zealand.

Winner will be crowned in October.

Fight on, Chrisses. For Christ's sake ?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 23, 2:55pm 1674352500

... the loser will be very angry , a Chris cross ...

by Nifty1 | 21st Jan 23, 11:36am 1674254205

Let's be real, Hipkins is a puppet... like the covid press conferences he'll be delivering the news he's been advised to tell...with some gaffes in between.

by tothepoint | 21st Jan 23, 10:34am 1674250447

Chris Hipkins is a good, solid politician. Very competent - and a decent person too.

With Hipkins as PM, Labour has a fighting chance at the next General Election - now just 9 months away.

TTP

by Nifty1 | 21st Jan 23, 10:36am 1674250568

Unfortunately 'decent people' don't seem to do very well in the role...

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 10:43am 1674251020

Yes, a decent person - and that counts. I think it's a lovely tribute to Jacinda that in standing down another decent person, which to my mind means being in politics for the right ethical reasons of service to the people, as opposed to self; will take up the position unopposed by the rest of the party/caucus.

Labour has done it right. Restoring what should be a noble pursuit - governance from the highest office in the land.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 10:59am 1674251941

My first thought was a recent photo of the PM with her daughter. I have daughters, grand & great granddaughters. That age leading up to school is sheer magic and she only has a little time left of that for her undivided attention. She deserves to be able to enjoy that.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:04am 1674252246

They are precious years with kids ... time lost can never be retrieved ...

... but , Jacinda was brilliant as an " ambassador " promoting NZ overseas ... what a crying shame that she's not our foreign minister ...

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 12:28pm 1674257318

My husband and I swapped roles of breadwinner and caregiver when our youngest child was only 2 - hence I have personal experience of being a full time working Mum over those very precious and irreplaceable young years. I recall the first time after we made the swap when one of the boys called out 'Daddy' instead of 'Mummy' during the night when they needed comfort. It was so sad for me as a mother - a stark realization, you could say. And having missed all that day-to-day child-rearing is why it has been so wonderful to become a grandmother! I'm 'free' to bake cookies; participate in drawing and game-playing; attend sports events; and the list goes on.

So many of my girlfriends at the time envied me for being able to pursue a career fully, and didn't quite understand why I envied them! And my husband's friends all envied him as well, not realizing that raising children and running a household virtually by yourself given the breadwinner spent so little time at home, was actually the more difficult job.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 12:54pm 1674258880

Yes and when they go to school it is something of a sad moment indeed. For then the outside influences enter and the relationship and communication are no longer as private and mutual as they have to commence all those challenges that await them.

by redcows1 | 21st Jan 23, 1:00pm 1674259209

Wow Kate, almost sounds like it takes two ;)

(Smiley sarc btw)

One of joys of being self-employed on a farm is both of us having time with the kids. And it's something our kids prize with theirs above almost all else.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 1:06pm 1674259607

Yes, and I think it's one of the reasons that so many of the sports people we come to know, who grew up on farms are so genuine and well-balanced folk.

by singautim | 22nd Jan 23, 6:35am 1674322527

The statistical evidence strongly supports you. On balance two loving parents are better than one. Expressed that way it is so obvious. So why are so many of our govt benefit policies tend to split couple rather than keep them together?

I admire our departing Prime Minister but she was badly let down by her Minister of Child Poverty Reduction.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 11:09am 1674252559

I agree decency is important. But I would rather have competence over decency. The current government has plenty of decency, but in my opinion little competence.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:13am 1674252816

.. during WW2 a lot of soldiers died from decency ... ... or , was that dysentery ? ... I'd better Google it ...

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 11:38am 1674254308

Indecency? Or did they end up in the stockade or Billy Connolly’s cure of wire brush and horse liniment, or both.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 11:36am 1674254175

So much of what you do as a leader in government relies on the competence of those working for you as officials. That's the essence of the difference between leadership and implementation. I was once in charge of a Vote as a senior public servant and all credit goes to my team. As a leader, you decide what the right priorities are and then you rely on those more knowledgeable than you to get the job done with integrity and efficiency. And you have to be prepared to pick your reporting senior managers who you know to be as competent, if not more competent than you.

And it seems to me that one of our problems in terms of public servants here in NZ, is that our senior leadership picks are questionable. We tend to go for 'big names' in government/bureaucratic spheres. Take the 'pick' for managing the polytechnic sector merger/transition;

https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/the-detail/story/2018850018/the-boom-and-bust-of-our-polytechs

The sector reform was desperately needed but the chosen inaugural CEO was (in hindsight) the wrong one - friends of mine in the sector could see it from the word go.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 11:45am 1674254720

I remember hearing some navy friends of my father remarking that you could always judge the mettle, the performance of a warship by the calibre of her Petty Officers Mess. In my time in reasonably senior management I always made it a priority to identify the most vital and pivotal positions and roles, and made sure they were manned by the most competent and reliable staff available.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:54am 1674255285

Petty Officers are very untidy , always leaving their Mess behind ...

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 6:09pm 1674277767

Petty GBH. Petty not pretty and gladly leave the messy behinds to you.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 2:31pm 1674264661

Does competence of officials matter much if they can’t give ‘free and frank advice’ and are effectively directed as to what to do by Ministers?

I guess it does in terms of implementation. But it doesn’t necessarily in terms of ‘’doing the right thing’ or doing things ‘the right way’.

Because that’s what I saw a lot of when I did some contracting work for a couple of government ministries in 2018-2019.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 12:03pm 1674255827

Kate, of course being a decent person counts, but it's of no use to the country if that decent person is unable to get things done! Ardern is a decent person, yet NZ is going backwards fast, because she was unable to get stuff done!

Luxon is a decent person too, but he's bald and not as smooth talking as Ardern was. But he will get stuff done to improve NZ. What counts is not having a poster of your "good looking" PM on your bedroom wall, what truly matters is that the PM is able to make the much needed changes for NZ.

by morepork | 21st Jan 23, 1:18pm 1674260308

Luxon might get stuff done, but he doesn't really have any experience as a government minister, so we'll see.

by Small Kev | 22nd Jan 23, 12:05am 1674299107

Luxon has proven track record of running successful businesses this is exactly what this country needs now.

by Macawsley | 22nd Jan 23, 6:09am 1674320942

The country is not a business -

The last thing NZ needs is cost cutting cliche bound sales manager.

His lack of appeal and poor communication skills will cost National the election .

by Roger the dodger | 22nd Jan 23, 6:58am 1674323917

Good businesses dont thrive on cost cutting believe it or not.

Gonna be an interesting election now.

by Albert2020 | 21st Jan 23, 1:38pm 1674261485

He may get stuff done but only to the benefit of the top 1%. We need policies that are going to benefit all of NZ, and national and ACT are not those parties.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 1:42pm 1674261767

Get real and stop regurgitating preconceived rubbish.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 1:59pm 1674262760

His point is a valid one, although his % is way off. I would say top 10% rather than top 1%.

by singautim | 22nd Jan 23, 6:41am 1674322910

I'd say top 40%. If you are part of that 1% you will have numerous friends and family who are not. Friends from your school days, church, sport team.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 2:19pm 1674263970

... under Labour the rich have gotten considerably richer .. tax free ...

And the poor are filling up all the motels in Fenton St , Rotorua ...

... you want more of this ?

by Albert2020 | 21st Jan 23, 2:42pm 1674265337

I’d prefer them to be living in motels than cars or on the streets. I suspect Yvil would concur.

by chebbo | 21st Jan 23, 5:54pm 1674276851

I'm sure the rich motel owners would prefer them to be living in motels as well, at no small expense to the taxpayer. At least until the tourists are back. Then they can go back to their cars and streets.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 7:49pm 1674283793

Rich motel owners you say? May I suggest you buy a Motel then, and run it for a while and see for yourself how easy work it is, and how rich you will become.

by chebbo | 21st Jan 23, 8:23pm 1674285836

I know one. Granted, he isn't overly rich, but he wasn't exactly pissed off about the guaranteed income as a transitional housing provider either. Made a fair whack out of it. Yes, he works hard.

by Roger the dodger | 22nd Jan 23, 8:23am 1674328987

Why is Jacindas rockstar economy driving the masses into social housing again?

You are dreaming if you think they came from the streets.

by Nzdan | 22nd Jan 23, 9:55am 1674334502

Apparently there are about 10k people living in motels at the moment. If we work on average family size of 4, that's 2.5k families.

In 2015 there were 67k properties managed by Housing NZ. By June 2017 (before Labour), this had dropped to 63k. That's 4k gone. No, they didn't come from the streets, they had the rug pulled out from under them.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 3:01pm 1674266462

To be honest, I think National would have done the same.

or you somehow think they would have been ahead of the game and proactively built purpose-built emergency housing?

by Small Kev | 22nd Jan 23, 12:07am 1674299260

And Labour contributed greatly bringing rents to market rate 👍

by pythagoras | 21st Jan 23, 2:20pm 1674264017

Got a ban on assault rifles pretty quick. John Key couldn't even make a flag design that anyone liked.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 23, 2:25pm 1674350726

. .. that's wrong about Tugger Key ... a lot of us loved the flag design of a Kiwi with green laser beams shooting out from it's eyes ... that was way cool ...

by tothepoint | 21st Jan 23, 11:06pm 1674295609

You don’t need a photo of Luxon if you can remember what Piggy Muldoon looked like.

TTP

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 23, 3:00pm 1674352825

... you wouldn't say that if you've ever seen Rob Muldoon in fishnet stockings & suspenders .... ooooooh ... that image is permanently seared into my memory ...

by Toye | 21st Jan 23, 11:58am 1674255533

This is the first semi-coherent thing I've heard out of you TTP - well done.

by DD62 | 21st Jan 23, 10:52pm 1674294750

What a load of crap! Every portfolio he has had is or has been a dismal failure! As for being a top bloke, LOL! Watch him when he gets rattled, he turns into a nasty little man. Can't wait for question time when he comes up against Seymour! Labour are going to eat themselves during the next nine months. Can't come soon enough!

by HW2 | 22nd Jan 23, 6:45am 1674323101

He caused a nasty little incident between us and Aust involving Oz politician Barnaby Joyce. I dare say Hipkins is a bit thick sometimes

by Foxglove. | 22nd Jan 23, 7:42am 1674326561

There was too a kerfuffle, with Julie Bishop I think, over some flippant remark even before Labour had assumed government.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 10:36am 1674250572

I think he’s a nice guy and a generally competent minister. But PM?

by Warwick D | 21st Jan 23, 10:53am 1674251609

Really? After reading this link I don't think so on either of the counts you mention.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/482813/what-is-chris-hipkins-recor…

Anyway, can he get the Maori caucus on side? He may have more trouble in this respect than in trying to address the rapidly declining state of affairs worrying that now essential demographic, NZ voters.

Only one nomination for the post. Just shows how the Labour caucus see their chances.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 11:07am 1674252464

As I have said before, the talent / competence within the Labour caucus is very limited. And the same applies to National’s ‘A Team’. It seems we have entered a political era where talent is threadbare.

I have plenty to criticise the Clark and Key governments on, but at their peaks they both had at least 5-6 very capable / outstanding MPs in their caucuses.

maybe 1 or 2, at best, in the Labour and National parties right now? I see plenty of mediocrity.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 12:05pm 1674255910

David Seymour is talented.

by Advisor | 21st Jan 23, 1:27pm 1674260828

He is, can’t deny that. I don’t believe he is the best person to lead the country though. Seymour's entire arsenal rests upon his pro-business stance, but his path to business-led prosperity is via mass migration, flat income taxes and housing speculation. The only "businesses" I've noticed him mingling with are landlords, dairy stores and farmers.

Seymour is so libertarian, gangs in NZ can get subsidies from his government by simply registering themselves as LLCs.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 1:36pm 1674261387

Yes he is, although I disagree with much of his policy.

Chloe Swarbrick of the Greens is very talented.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 2:39pm 1674265155

Speaking of the Greens, they have reached a bit of a fork in their road. Up until now they would have had reasonably high hopes of the much coveted cabinet positions they were stymied out of last time. All that patience and low profile was as worthy as it was necessary but the unrest that that percolated up against Shaw now has another fuse and ambitions and infighting might come to the fore again. Of course if Luxon is shrewd and strategic he might think to signal that there would be a role for Shaw. conservation, climate change in his government. After all that is Shaw’s special project and area of expertise and will the nation still not need that and why turn his back on the opportunity to continue his good work. Mind that would too, really put a rat amongst the chickens at Greens HQ.

by nguturoa | 21st Jan 23, 10:57am 1674251857

No one is a born PM or even think about it until given a chance and put in that position. Now it's the time to see how much of GRIT he has got to take decesions required to take country forward. Last few years have been dividing the country and take us all backwards.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 10:50am 1674251400

Whew ! ... this is the re-set Labour need ... they were tracking towards oblivion ... but , Hippy is an excellent choice as leader ... a regular Kiwi guy , plain speaking , capable ...

... I'd pair him up with Kiri Allan as his deputy ... she's a real live wire .... then its game on until October 14 ...

After 5 long years , finally , all the waffle & ideology can be stripped away , and we'll have a government who get on with the mundane day to day running of our nation ... and , less emphasis on leading the world in saving the planet ...

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 10:53am 1674251625

What they should do is pursue TOP as the potential coalition partner as they need to cut the Greens loose in a well-understood public way.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:00am 1674252041

.. that's a great idea ... top idea ... but , will never happen ... sadly !

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 12:44pm 1674258266

They could choose not to stand anyone in Ilam - I know it's a Nat/ACT play but it's been effective over many years for that duo.

by nktokyo | 21st Jan 23, 11:50am 1674255033

They won't because TOP's core policy of taxing the family home is going to push far more people away than it attracts. We can't even agree to a simple CGT so wealth taxes certainly won't win friends.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:56am 1674255385

. . wealth taxes are desperately needed ... a simple land tax would be a good start ...

by fortunr | 21st Jan 23, 11:29am 1674253764

I would have liked Kiri Allan as a prime minister. One of the very few Labour MPs who at least try to do some real work, and an inspirational and a great human being on top of that.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 11:41am 1674254514

She is lovely but I worry that the East Coast really, really, really needs a highly active local representative. She's so very new in terms of government and I worry that she is currently torn between electorate and country.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 11:45am 1674254740

She’s good, but is the country ready for a Maori lesbian as PM?

Just to clarify - I have no issues AT ALL, but I bet a decent chunk of this still very small minded country would. And we are talking about politics and votes.

by nktokyo | 21st Jan 23, 11:53am 1674255196

I'm 40+, bald, white and grew up in the church. I think a Lesbian Maori PM would be awesome!

I think it's too soon for Kiri tho. Hipkins has been in parliament since 2007 and not much will faze him. Kiri's a leader for the future and it would be great for her to find her feet out of the spotlight.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 12:33pm 1674257626

Exactly my thoughts too.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 12:39pm 1674257999

I agree. I am 50 and white (but not bald, lol) and I agree. But I still come across many people who have a thing against both Maori and gay people. The prejudice is worse against Maori, I think.

being Maori and lesbian should not be a reason for her not to be PM, and I suspect it wasn’t, even if the Labour Party do consider public perceptions.

by Gracey | 21st Jan 23, 1:26pm 1674260787

I agree. That may be a step too far in some people's minds, unfortunately.

by Gracey | 21st Jan 23, 1:28pm 1674260903

She's only a couple of years out from having cancer remember. That may have influenced her decision. Or may not of course. But not an insignificant factor.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 1:37pm 1674261469

Great point

by nguturoa | 21st Jan 23, 10:54am 1674251690

I think i like this guy. He is not old. So probably not part of old boys club.

He is educated, he had been a leader from his school years.

I think he can take New Zealand on a new track with high levels is literacy and where we make policies to grow the country and all parts of society. Take steps to remove high level of inequality present currently.

I have never voted labour but if he can bring in good policies, I will vote for him.

We need young educated intelligent leaders in this country to bring us back on track of prosperity for all and just not a few who already are born with silver spoon in their mouth.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 10:57am 1674251826

back on track of prosperity for all and just not a few who already are born with silver spoon in their mouth.

So well put. Egalitarianism - it was the kind of New Zealand society I came to know when emigrating here in 1978.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 11:11am 1674252696

And it’s something that David Lange and his government helped destroy.

The current Labour government has also done a pretty good job at eroding egalitarianism.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 11:27am 1674253664

Yes when rogernomics got in full swing it almost tore the house down in its haste. Eventually Lange famously had to call a halt and have a cuppa. But at the beginning a prescient comment by Rob Muldoon comes to mind where he said that the upheaval, the breakneck speed of reform would tear down the fabric of New Zealand society. For all his faults Muldoon was a shrewd and intelligent politician and he knew he had to know the people to succeed. His own failures had been laid bare by then but in that prediction he was not incorrect.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 11:47am 1674254877

Yep.

And just to clarify - NZ needed significant reform, that is not in question. It’s just that Rogernomics went too far, by quite some margin.

I think Hawke and Keating were closer to the mark.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 11:51am 1674255095

Exactly!

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 11:43am 1674254614

And he realised it - too late to reverse the destruction.

by Inthecentre | 22nd Jan 23, 1:14am 1674303289

I think ruthanasia and the mother of all budgets can be included in that.

by Foxglove. | 22nd Jan 23, 7:46am 1674326774

True too and when she lost the finance portfolio she followed her toys out the window abandoning the people in her electorate that had voted for her to represent them.

by Von Metternich | 21st Jan 23, 11:18am 1674253099

Congratulations to Hipkins. As my local MP I am bias, but he is by far my favourite centre-left MP.

I suspect he will be capable of reinvigorating labour enough to win the next election.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:26am 1674253594

.. do you believe he can rein in the ambitions of his Maori caucus ? ... I believe that they were a constant stress on Jacinda ... Hippy will need to put a solid grip upon his Willie ...

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 11:31am 1674253860

Would suggest he will be hard pressed to halt the rush of snouts to the trough to fill up before the flow is turned off. And alongside that preventing his finance minister cleaning out the silverware while still able.

by Von Metternich | 21st Jan 23, 11:49am 1674254947

The appropriate approach is to sideline the entire maori caucas and let the Maori Party take that vote in the electorate races. It would out all those MPs in large part.

He should focus on preparing the country for the recession and pushing policy reforms which are easy wins.

1. Make employer kiwisaver contributions mandatory, even if the employee doesn't contribute.

2. Increase that employer match to 4%. Incentivise savings rates.

3. Introduce an interest free loans programme (via kiwibank) for home renovations to improve insulation, rewire electrical wiring (tons of old places are absolutely DIY electrical jobs from 80 years ago), improve windows (sealing windows vs the drafty wooden state housing windows) etc. Catch the unemployment hitting the construction sector as the housing bubble blows up.

4. Follow it up in a year or so with a similar programme for solar panels/batteries.

Some easy stimulus they could run to grow Labour's popularity back.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 12:08pm 1674256126

A really, really good idea to extend the insulation subsidies to re-wiring. So many first home buyers are faced with the choice between investment in safety versus paying the mortgage and putting food on the table. Not good at all.

by Beanie | 21st Jan 23, 1:34pm 1674261252

A friend runs a reasonable size electrical business. He is currently anticipating laying off half of his staff within 6 months as forward workload wiring new houses has fallen off a cliff.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 1:39pm 1674261598

Sad. And sadly we are going to hear MANY more of these stories, as I have been saying for more than 1.5 years (too bad no one was listening).

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 1:44pm 1674261848

Go easy on the handouts and the bloating of an already bloated govt Kate

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 1:49pm 1674262143

Get what you're saying in principle, but the insulation subsidy did not so much bloat the size of government per se - rather it was government/taxpayer investment in a social good. A social good that in the long-run saves government/taxpayer money in terms of health costs.

Not all handouts, as you call them, are fiscally irresponsible and imprudent.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 11:57am 1674255464

I think the Maori caucus is sometimes misunderstood from the outside. I have personal experience of Minister Jackson before he entered politics - he's a true advocate for his people, and I say 'his people' because his advocacy work has always been directed toward all Māori (and particular urban Māori), not Māori elites. He made the right call last election getting all those standing in Māori seats to remove themselves from the Labour list. That was ethically the right thing to do as those seats have a special status and should be respected as such. He was raised by a wonderful wahine toa and he is very much his mother's son - heart and foresight in the right place.

by Cheetahlegs66 | 21st Jan 23, 8:21pm 1674285688

He’s a deluded racist and denier of democracy.

Very anti-incarceration and blames the ills of Maoridom on colonisation ie whites. Pushes for unelected representation on council by Maori because ‘democracy no longer means one person, one vote.’ Paraphrased

by Inthecentre | 22nd Jan 23, 1:19am 1674303573

The ills of Maoridom are because of colonisation. Why would you think they aren't?

by singautim | 22nd Jan 23, 6:58am 1674323939

Compare with Polynesian and Melanesian countries that had few colonists.

Colonisation occurred mainly in the 19th century; did things get better or worse with time. If colonisation is the only issue then things should be getting better especially with the treaty settlements returning land.

by Noncents | 22nd Jan 23, 7:47am 1674326871

I have heard the same from many others. Which would imply that he is clearly in the wrong party.

I find it odd we have a caucus within a caucus. Makes me wonder, with such a clear split in the party, how much longer can it continue in its current form.

by Foxglove. | 22nd Jan 23, 8:27am 1674329256

Yes, a house divided cannot stand and in that regard, it seems to be that the Labour Party, the government has been more or less been hijacked and held to ransom and you have to consider that PM Ardern has had to accept, that it has all got out of hand. The entrenchment of three waters was attempted in a furtive and deceptive manner unprecedented in normal parliamentary procedure and behaviour. That this could happen, can only mean that there was neither respect nor loyalty shown to the Prime Minister from a faction that is only answerable and accountable to itself.

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 11:21am 1674253286

Mr fixit

He did a great job as police minister replacing poto

All the small businesses and dairy owners would roundly applaude him. Slow clap style.

by Albert2020 | 21st Jan 23, 1:42pm 1674261756

How long has he had that portfolio?

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 2:33pm 1674264826

Your response is exactly the fudging type of response the new PM will employ to deceive voters and give false hope with more false promises.

He has had more than long enough, how long does it take to show empathy.

When the Mt Albert murder happened, action happened. Although ardern kept lying saying that there was a worldwide shortage of fog cannons. They hadn't bothered to order any

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 2:53pm 1674266023

The exact same thing happened with the Pfizer covid vaccines ... far from being " at the front of the queue " , our minister simply had not ordered them ...

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 9:16pm 1674289007

They did not give a rats arse about rat tests. That view changed overnight as we all know

by Inthecentre | 22nd Jan 23, 1:22am 1674303749

Rat tests are not worth the materials they are made with. Their accuracy depends on the ability of the person administering them.

by Jonny.Foe | 21st Jan 23, 11:30am 1674253836

My view, for what it's worth, is that this change was necessary to do some pivoting. My forecast:

3 Waters is dead in the waters - expect an investment package in water infrastructure instead - with some conditionality on local Govt to agree to medium-term investment plans and shared procurement
TVNZ/RNZ merger - all pain, no gain (for now). Suspended.
Something on Industrial Policy - a significant investment in our future. Perhaps hydro (Onslow), tonnes of offshore wind, etc. Expect a focus on initiatives that reduce the cost of living and improve our energy security (and get more houses built obviously). What chances we get a 21st Century Ministry of Works promised to enable the development and train young people etc?
Taxation - Labour were trapped by Ardern's promises here - and the country wants to see taxes on the rich. Labour also need to be seen to be prudent. So, expect increased taxes on the wealthy to offset some of the above investment (although they will park a lot of investment 'off books' in green bonds or something). Capital gains is the obvious choice for the tax - but a Land Value Tax would be by far the better option

by nguturoa | 21st Jan 23, 11:35am 1674254116

We have ultra rich in this country with multiple properties, there will be no sweat in taxing them and balancing the infrastructure needs of the country.

If PAYE pays full tax in their income then why not everyone else who makes a profit in a tax year.

The inequalities need to be removed fast. We are in 2023, not in 1990's anymore. So stop living in the past and look for the future.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 11:54am 1674255284

Yes. They will gain significantly votes-wise if they propose a wealth tax and/or land tax. Most people who will be hit by those initiatives are not Labour voters, or only swung to Jacinda once back in 2017…

by Von Metternich | 21st Jan 23, 11:57am 1674255428

Introducing land value tax with an exception for people over 65 to defer payment until death would be the way to go. A flat 1-2% LVT with that deference applied equally would allow lowering taxes on productivity and would win a huge vote, but only if it came at the bottom of the housing bust.

by Jonny.Foe | 21st Jan 23, 12:00pm 1674255655

Agreed - TOP have done a lot of the groundwork for them too.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 12:44pm 1674258248

Agree.

Is anyone in the Labour Party listening?

And by doing this they would be able to change tax thresholds, and consider a tax free band for income tax.

Something for the low- middle income workers. Isn’t that what Labour should be about?

by Matt_B | 21st Jan 23, 3:23pm 1674267801

Hipkins owns 3 Houses vs Luxon 7

Battle of the Houses

by HW2 | 22nd Jan 23, 6:51am 1674323501

Some said Chris 1 was unelectable because of his houses. Of course Chris 2 with houses should also now be unelectable based on that logic

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 11:52am 1674255122

Good comment, I agree other than I don’t think a 21st century MOW is remotely likely.

They *should* do something significant on tax, whether they * will* is a whole different question. They have much more potential to win votes rather than lose votes, with tax. I agree land tax would be an obvious one. Hey, if that was one of their policies I ‘might’ consider voting Labour. I stress the word ‘might’….

by Jonny.Foe | 21st Jan 23, 11:59am 1674255558

Cheers. A 21st Century MoW could take the form of long-term contracts with multiple firms - with open book pricing, agreed margins, and central prioritisation of work.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 12:45pm 1674258322

Great idea

by bw | 21st Jan 23, 11:37am 1674254272

If Hipkins doesn't make the necessary changes immediately to keep those of us who 'came over' to Labour at the last election, then he isn't electable PM material. That will leave us with the unenviable alternative of an equally unsuitable PM in the form of the mediocre current leader of the Opp.

In effect, we will then be ratifying a defacto PM in October, in the form of Adrian Orr, who after all has 5 years of his term left to run and isn't about to 'allow' much of what National thinks it can do, and the transformation of New Zealand from a tenuous Democracy to a Technocracy will be complete.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 12:12pm 1674256338

Vote National then, they will get rid of Orr, despite his 5 year contract.

by Poission51 | 21st Jan 23, 12:27pm 1674257265

And add a moron premium to interest rates as investors do not like political interference in the independent regulators,Nicola Willis's version of trussonomics needs to be strangled in the cot.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 1:38pm 1674261516

What ???

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 23, 2:10pm 1674263419

Self explanatory wasn’t it? The independence of our reserve bank is very important to investors

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 11:45am 1674254704

In my humble opinion, Hipkins was the best choice for Labour. (out of a very shallow pool of talent)

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 3:45pm 1674269128

Whatever happened to stu Nash, MSM ignored him completely. Tho the ZBoomers overnight talk, 2 nights ago, gave him the thumbs up, he hasn't put himself forward, or did he

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 12:30pm 1674257453

Kiri Allan has ruled herself out of contention for the deputy role

I haven't seen so much voluntary stepping aside since the cultural revolution 😯

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 1:18pm 1674260288

Most likely given she realises the East Coast needs her more.

by Albert2020 | 21st Jan 23, 1:44pm 1674261874

Maybe they all realsie Chris is the best man for the job? Would you prefer an infighting shit show for leadership challenge like national have been doing the past 12 months?

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 2:45pm 1674265533

Yes a roadshow with the various contenders strutting their stuff

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 2:49pm 1674265790

... beg pardon ... but Luscious Luxon has been head Gnat for the last 12 months ... Nicola Willis his deputy ... getcha facts sorted !

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 3:12pm 1674267136

Suggest that’s from the solitary sentinel for the Praetorian Guard. The rest have been decimated it seems. Still the use of that terminology is a bit of a red flag and they may rise up from their despair and man the ramparts now?

by Albert2020 | 21st Jan 23, 4:08pm 1674270536

Wow has it been 12months already, I guess he’s more forgettable than I first thought. The point stands, they were ripping each other to shreds in public for a substantial time before the threw a hail merry and chose Luxon. This leadership transition in contrast has been seamless.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 4:53pm 1674273198

Hardly unique circumstances for either party if you know your history. Kirk had to push out Nordmeyer, Muldoon ditto Marshall. The Lange government shredded itself into Palmer then Moore and Clark had to oust the latter. The Bolger government collapsed into a shambles taken over by Shipley. Helen Clark kept it all together but after her, Goff, Shearer,Cunliffe, Little, Ardern. National not to be outdone had English displace Shipley, Brash then did it to him and Key did it to Brash then came English again, Bridges, Muller, Collins and now Luxon. On that basis to claim one lots performance is superior to the other is of the most ridiculous partisanship. They are all tarred the same.

by Zen20 | 21st Jan 23, 4:58pm 1674273484

I wish Michael King could have condensed his tome into that kind of parabite - chur!

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 5:51pm 1674276667

Long, long time since I read that. God knows where my copy went. Recall he was a bit of the master of sometimes making his points by not telling quite the whole story. The one that springs to mind is the mission by NZ to take over Western Samoa from Germany , WW1. He made great play about how the “invasion troopship” only narrowly missed an encounter with the German Sth Pacific squadron. Failed to mention though how heavily armed the escort was that sailed in convoy.

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 4:52pm 1674273140

Not at all seamless. The deputy leader who was quids in as the new leader suddenly side-stepped the role. Causing the latest kerfuffle

Robertson will most likely be triggering a bi-election after the general election if labour cannot form govt in '23. Along with many of his colleagues, some of whom have already stuck their hand up and are not standing again.

by Nzdan | 21st Jan 23, 11:51am 1674255060

Probably the only competent Labour MP in my opinion.

I wonder how different the last 5 years would have been had Hipkins, and not Cindy, been Prime Minister.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 11:59am 1674255578

.. " Cindy " ? ... can we please stop this insulting nonsense : her name is Jacinda !

by Nzdan | 21st Jan 23, 12:08pm 1674256092

Not an insult, merely a sobriquet. An insult would be calling her horse face, the level many on this site love to stoop down to when compensating for their own insecurities.

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 12:33pm 1674257581

But but, You called them "worst govt in living memory"

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 12:52pm 1674258728

I'll happily stand by that as a fact , not as in infantile insult ... they are the worst government in living memory .... worst PM too , when it comes to day-to-day regular running of the nation ...

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 12:48pm 1674258495

I actually dislike use of ‘Jacinda’ too. My preference is ‘Ardern’. Most people called John Key, ‘Key’, right?

of course the most respectful address would be Prime Minister xxxxxxxx

by Nzdan | 21st Jan 23, 2:11pm 1674263495

To be fair, the only person's opinion that really matters is "Ardern's". Otherwise you're just getting offended on behalf of other people.

Have you asked her? Maybe she doesn't mind Cindy? Who knows, maybe her closest friends call her Gretchen Grundler?

But we all know what is meant when people say Cindy, Ardern etc particularly in the right context.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 2:18pm 1674263886

It’s not about offensiveness. I just think it’s weird to talk of prime ministers by their first name, let alone derogatory nicknames.

by Nifty1 | 21st Jan 23, 2:31pm 1674264699

Apologies for ever calling you Mouse, House...

by singautim | 22nd Jan 23, 7:08am 1674324514

At school boys were called by their surname and girls by their first name. Admittedly in those days there was a narrow range of boy's names so Tom Dick and Harry would have been ambiguous.

by Dale Smith | 21st Jan 23, 8:03pm 1674284618

May be the right context now would be to say 'Cinders.'

by Nzdan | 21st Jan 23, 11:47pm 1674298043

200%

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 23, 2:31pm 1674351068

Labour's chances of being re-elected are cinders ... or ashes ... which leaves Hipkins in a precarious position if they get soundly beaten , can he continue as leader beyond Oct14 ... will the factions & infighting erupt as they did post Helen Clark ...

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 12:16pm 1674256589

I'm quite surprised by several comments which imply that Labour have a better chance to win the election, now that Ardern, and to an extent, Robertson, are gone. I think that the immediate effect of Ardern's resignation and Robertson's refusal to take over, is negative for Labour's poll. I guess we will find out soon.

by chebbo | 21st Jan 23, 12:29pm 1674257341

You would think so, but Hipkins "seems like a nice guy", which in most voters' minds is the determining factor.

You know, like when we used to SMS-vote for who we liked most during the ad breaks in Big Brother.

by tothepoint | 21st Jan 23, 12:25pm 1674257156

It’s possible that Robbo will resign soon.

TTP

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 12:57pm 1674259079

If he should, in my opinion, that would be gutless. Watched the other night an injured Rafael Nadal stay on court even though he knew full well he would not be able to win. He played on despite the obvious pain and limitations as he saw it as his duty to play the match from start to the finish. That is pride and honour. If Robertson bails out now he would be the opposite.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 12:51pm 1674258675

100% agree. It’s not like he has a child.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 1:13pm 1674260006

And can you believe Andy Murray playing to 4am with a metal hip! I love tennis!

by HW2 | 21st Jan 23, 1:29pm 1674260964

A movie on tvnz plus you might like, borg v mcenroe, their Wimbledon showdown

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 2:45pm 1674265549

Sir Andy , if you don't mind ... he got a knighthood for playing with his balls ...

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 12:32pm 1674257533

Robbo won't be going anywhere ... he loves his role as finance minister ...

... and , as was pointed out above , he has a smug self-congratulatory demeanour which rubs people up the wrong way ... not suitable for being PM ...

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 12:50pm 1674258602

I actually think it will work both ways ie. they will lose some votes and win some.

I also think it could depend on whether they introduce some new policy that Ardern may not have backed.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 23, 12:35pm 1674257757

Sportsbet has

National $1.25

Labour $3.80

Before the resignation it was 1.85 Nats 1.95 Labour

Anyone telling you this helps Labour is spinning shite.

Labour can drop policy but has no sitting time in the house to do anything new. It's a press release festival, the only thing they are good at.

by Kate | 21st Jan 23, 12:47pm 1674258456

LOL. What if - as a voter - you're telling yourself that :-). Are you still full of shite?

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 12:45pm 1674258352

Yes this move is too late. Should have been a year or so ago. No time left for Hipkins to get much traction, make himself convincing and popular. Actually this has been one of the foremost problems of this government. Consistently they wake up far too late and then thrash around looking for a solution to a problem that was quite discernible.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 12:48pm 1674258518

... hmmm ... I like your thinking ... I'll set up a working group and hire a team of consultants to look into that ...

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 1:37pm 1674261450

by Foxglove | 21st Jan 23, 12:45pm 1674258352

Yes this move is too late.

I'm not so sure, Ardern was made Labour leader much closer to election date than Hipkins.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 4:10pm 1674270656

True but on analysis she only lifted the result from the rock bottom depth that Little had them at. People, including me, were tired of National’s blue suit brigade and overbearing priority of corporate New Zealand at the expense of the common folk. Even so National under English still gained more seats than any other party and the margin in that, 10 seats greater in number than Labour was hardly insignificant. Labour though had put themselves into a much superior position with regard to forming a coalition, and in that they succeeded. Ardern was then a breath of fresh air but still very much a novice as a prospective PM but this is how MMP works.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 12:54pm 1674258865

I wouldn’t have the odds quite that divergent. But not far off.

Maybe Nats at $1.65

by DDS | 21st Jan 23, 1:03pm 1674259419

Things change fast in politics.

Don't forget how Ardern came into Parliament in the first place. Labour polling close to the lowest they had ever polled under then-leader Andrew Little, then they drop Little, promote Ardern, get a new leader bump in popularity, and six weeks later Ardern gets enough votes to form a majority.

Not saying Labour will win, but people are fickle when it comes to choosing who to vote for, and nine months is PLENTY of time to change a mind.

by paashaas | 21st Jan 23, 4:58pm 1674273490

I do not like Labour and hope they are defeated soundly .

Placed a sizeable bet on them though - those odds are too good to pass.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 6:02pm 1674277365

Well now I might follow suit. I never win bets.

by dumbthoughts | 21st Jan 23, 1:46pm 1674262000

Personality-wise, I prefer him to Ardern. Less of the wild gesticulating, Labrador-esque head tilting, speaks to the audience not so much as if they were children ... maybe he will take less of an 'us and them' approach too (or even better accept some culpability for his party's approach in using polarisation for political advantage)

If I were forced at gunpoint to spend time on a desert island with a member of the Labour party, it'd be him. Maybe if the policies are good, and he can escape the shackles of a certain faction within the party, he might even get my vote.

Labour will play up his "chill dude" vibe as much as they can as it's probably his biggest asset, as now they have a pale, male (albeit slightly less) stale running the joint they can't pull out the gender or race card - although we all know that being a pale male crusty is really only a problem if you're on the right side of the political spectrum.

I see headline news is that he is "Mr Fix It" and over on Reddit NZ you'd be forgiven for thinking the Second Coming was upon us.

However, apart from making the country laugh with an inadvertent sex joke, what has he actually achieved?

Knack for accidental sexual innuendo aside, all that comes to mind is:

Calling some women in the North Island sex workers (in no uncertain terms) and then refusing to apologise when that was proven incorrect, and worse that he knew at the time it was a paperwork blunder that led to their travel
Badmouthing that journalist leaving Afghanistan, and being forced to apologise on the matter
Overseeing the cock up that is the polytech merger, and presiding over rapidly worsening educational outcomes
Overseeing MIQ, which while maybe necessary in the first phase of the pandemic was ultimately kept around far too long to the detriment of many individuals and families, depriving Kiwis of their right to return home

by Dale Smith | 21st Jan 23, 7:27pm 1674282477

'Making people laugh with an inadvertent sex joke,'

He is the Minister of Pubic Service after all.

Spread your Legs.

by pythagoras | 21st Jan 23, 2:14pm 1674263692

Hipkins will make mincemeat of the blathering Luxon. Perhaps Labour has a chance now after all.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 2:28pm 1674264497

No one holds a candle to Ardern or Robbo when it comes to blathering ... Luscious Luxon is a rank amateur in the blathering stakes ... Labour are the champions , head & shoulders ...

by chebbo | 21st Jan 23, 6:35pm 1674279304

Luxon is an empty suit. He belongs in a boardroom or on the golf course, not in the Beehive.

Hipkins will run circles around him in the debates, which is a shame, because there is so much Hipkins has to answer for on behalf of Labour. I just don't think Luxon has the ability to hold them to account.

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 7:54pm 1674284088

Luxon has though a number of rather good debaters behind him and then as well there is the proven ability of Seymour to rattle the cage. Up until now Ardern & Robertson have been both comfortable and efficient leading Labour in the house. Hipkins came next but it is quite obvious there was not much available next in line and that will be his major problem. In other words those two have gone and Hipkins has no zHipkins behind him, no back up at all, he’s all on his own. As well don’t overlook Hipkins has had his moments too in the media, his sometimes stuttering responses, to Hoskings and the Heather DPA for example, has been just as awkward as anything Luxon has presented. There is no doubt about it, the opposition hear the sound of the hunt and Hipkins is the quarry.

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 7:47pm 1674283622

Chebbo, you will be surprised by Luxon at debate time, closer to the election.

by JimboJones | 21st Jan 23, 2:15pm 1674263717

It seems from these comments that Hipkins is much more popular with men than Ardern was. If Labour can keep the large female vote they had then they could win the election.

my guess is it will all come down to who cocks up the most, Hipkins or Luxon.

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 2:24pm 1674264290

Seems a bit that way. I don’t think he will lose many of Ardern’s female votes. So overall it’s probably the best thing for Labour.

I still think it will take much more than a leadership change to get close to National, though.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 21st Jan 23, 2:33pm 1674264798

I'd phrase it differently : Hipkins as a mover & shaker is much more popular with men than Ardern was ... less talk , more action : simple ...

... and , during an interview Jacinda was dreadfully long winded ... I'd forget what the original question was long before she ended her bloviated blathering ....

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 3:25pm 1674267919

There is always that. Mistakes and gaffes count heavier than virtues. Luxon will also need to keep his wits about him to prevent some of National’s mps reverting to type, getting arrogant and braying about this and that and themselves, deriding the opposition etc etc. New Zealand is facing certain troubled times and the electorate wants to know that there is going to be a level headed and steady team dedicated to steering them through it as first priority. But Luxon vs Hipkins? Battle of the Christophers then!

by Tim Depositor | 21st Jan 23, 4:04pm 1674270254

The TV3 live footage today of hipkins on the steps of Parliament was a winner. Smooth transition of leadership. A+ that one Labour.

1-0 to Hipkins.

I do think Hipkins has a big advantage of actually holding the position as the incumbent PM. He has demonstrated that he can lead the nation already.

And his debating chops are maybe a bigger advantage over Luxon.

2.5 - 0 to Hipkins .

by Yvil | 21st Jan 23, 4:31pm 1674271907

It seems from these comments that Hipkins is much more popular with men than Ardern was

Careful with this comment JJ, you're bordering on misogyny. (I'm being sarcastic, but sadly, many will actually think so)

by Mountie | 21st Jan 23, 5:32pm 1674275558

There's a huge block of women voters who will never vote Luxon. His anti-abortion stance says so much about who he really is.

by Tim Depositor | 21st Jan 23, 5:41pm 1674276107

Yes, what a handicap for Luxon.

Anti abortion!? Sorry Luxon, see ya.

Hipkins will go after him on that. He'll be toast there.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 23, 2:48pm 1674352113

Luxon has clearly said that his personal opinion on abortion will not affect the nation's current laws ... there will be no changes ...

by HouseMouse | 21st Jan 23, 2:20pm 1674264040

I really like Kieran McAnulty, but he’s not PM material, at least not right now….

by TheAnalyst | 22nd Jan 23, 11:49am 1674341386

McAnulty had a very junior role with the TAB so has been given the Minister Of Racing role which nobody else wants. Will bend over backwards for his old employer who are lobbying to make the NZ TAB a monopoly by geo blocking. (Trust me this will be a very bad move).

Is also Minister of Emergency Management (whatever that means).

So hasn't done much inside or outside of parliament.

However that doesn't mean he can't be PM one day because Ardern had the same credentials.

And he is probably a good bloke which seems to matter more than having any ability.

by Carlos67 | 21st Jan 23, 7:03pm 1674281029

Wow incredible stuff reading this, it appears you only need to replace the person at the top in Labour and all their problems and failures of the last 5 years are history, clean slate start again. Something tells me a couple of terms for Labour on the back benches is the only fix.

by Macawsley | 21st Jan 23, 7:50pm 1674283854

Ditto National it appears.

by DD62 | 21st Jan 23, 11:10pm 1674295842

Totally agree Carlos! I'm wondering if I've clicked on the wrong website! This government has been an abject failure on virtually every metric of any consequence. So now Hipkins has the reigns alls well? Get real!!

by Inthecentre | 22nd Jan 23, 1:42am 1674304925

The problem is National offer nothing new. The recycling of Judith Collins shows that. Where is some policy apart from back to the future. If they were any good they would be in the mid forties and Seymour would be praying for them to let him have a seat.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 23, 4:34pm 1674358484

I think that the exuberance is because many of us are so pleased that Ardern is gone ...

... nevertheless , you're correct , the awful policies & ideologies we hate will probably continue even after her departure ...

This is the worst NZ government since WW2 ...

by Dale Smith | 21st Jan 23, 7:19pm 1674281983

Many commentators here are saying that he gets things done.

OK has Minister of Public Service he has increased that Department but that is a Labour thing anyway.

As Minister of Police, would the Dairy owners agree with 'getting things done?'

And as MoE - Education has gone backwards.

What are these 'done' things he has meant to have done?

by Carlos67 | 21st Jan 23, 7:33pm 1674282789

I think all the hopeium is coming from Labour supporters clutching at straws. Lets see "How much he gets done" in the next 9 months.

by IT GUY | 21st Jan 23, 7:53pm 1674283996

All those Labour voters should back them at $3.80 on sportsbet......

ITS ALL DESPERATE SPIN

by Foxglove. | 21st Jan 23, 8:34pm 1674286450

The usual orchestrated chatter on here, from the usual Jacinda fan boys is noticeably absent for sure. This supposedly unexpected event has not only blown their socks off, but seems to have stuffed said socks in their mouths for good measure.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 22nd Jan 23, 2:42pm 1674351735

From Jacindamania to Jacindaphobic in the blink of an eye ... we are a fickle lot , aren't we ...

by Joe Smith | 21st Jan 23, 8:46pm 1674287183

A lot of people here underestimating how much it matters to have a popular party leader and not to have an unpopular one. Labour won the last election in a landslide because many lifelong Nat supporters decided Ardern's performance on covid and Christchurch massacres were too good not to reward at the polls. A lot of those people have had a 180 degree turn on their opinion of her since then. It's true that a lot of this is due to Labour policies, particularly on covid, but she has absorbed most of the vitriol personally. Once she's gone, a lot of that disappears as well.

Hipkins is popular, competent, and a straight talker. I think he has a good chance of attracting swing voters to Labour. Assuming Luxon remains National leader, I suspect we will see another Labour victory in October.

by Carlos67 | 22nd Jan 23, 9:22am 1674332527

Some people shouldn't be able to vote. If you think being a leader is all about hugs and kisses then you have got a problem. She is being paid to lead the country not read children's bed time stories. The wolf is now at the front door and she has done a runner out the back door.

by Nzdan | 22nd Jan 23, 12:00am 1674298802

Here's a 2020 Health debate between Hipkins and Dr Shane Reti.

It was supposed to be a "debate" yet Hipkins and Reti were both in agreeance, and surprisingly the debate was extremely civilized.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI588NvVh1w

by Stuart Mason | 22nd Jan 23, 7:06am 1674324400

How's he going with Law and Order in the 6 months since he's been Minister of Police?

by phalanax | 22nd Jan 23, 10:23am 1674336237

ex PM Ardern is much smarter than many think...Labour wont make the cut next election ...and they know it. Plenty going against them ...not gonna start a list of why folk will vote elsewhere ... but smart move by the former PM. Goes out a Winner....

by HW2 | 22nd Jan 23, 10:29am 1674336598

Political move. Would still be there if her polls weren't going backwards

by Foxglove. | 22nd Jan 23, 10:48am 1674337716

And not aware of the gathering storm just about all of which has been created on her watch.

by Dale Smith | 22nd Jan 23, 4:49pm 1674359397

Now that JA has gone, why are many saying that Labour has a better chance at winning?

Her fall in popularity is not because most people did not like her, but because they didn't like the Labour's policies she represents, and even the ones they did like, they didn't like that fact they could not implement them. That hasn't changed with a new figurehead in place.

If Labour were to make changes in policy now, eg wind back 6 waters and co-governance, then it would look like these were JA's policies and now she is gone so are the policies.

This exit of JA's does allow them to exit bad policy using her as a 'scapegoat,' which if untrue would be a bit mean. Maybe she is 'taking one for the team,' but regardless, the left is famous for eating their own.

There is still no way they can reverse what they haven't achieved between now and the election. Given that they could Govern alone these last 3 years and things have gotten worse, is anyone one really going to give them another 3 either by themselves or in coalition?