Māori Party surges in Roy Morgan June poll

Public Policy / analysis

National/Act on 45% are on the verge of a majority ahead of Labour/Greens on 40% in June, but it is still the Māori Party holding the balance

4th Jul 23, 8:49am by admin

Source: 123rf.com Copyright: twinsterphoto

This content is from Roy Morgan. The full original version is here.

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for June 2023 shows a potential right-leaning National/ Act NZ coalition has a clear lead on 45%, unchanged since May, ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 40%, down 3% points.

However, despite the clear lead for the right-leaning National/Act NZ potential partners, they are still two seats short of securing a majority of seats in the next Parliament.

Although the right-leaning parties are attracting higher support, the main Opposition Party, National, has seen its support decline in June, down 1.5% points to only 30%. This is the lowest level of support for National since Christopher Luxon became National Leader on November 30, 2021.

The decline in support for National has been a direct gain for Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to 15% in June – the highest level of support for the right-leaning libertarian party for 18 months since December 2021.

Support for the governing Labour Party was down 0.5% points to 30.5% while support for their governing partners the Greens dropped by 2.5% points to 9.5% in June – the lowest support for the party for nearly a year since August 2022.

Although the right-leaning National/ Act NZ potential coalition is in the box seat to form Government in October, they are still falling short of having enough support to win a majority in the Parliament with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.

Maori Party support surges to a record high of 7% in June – and still in the balance of power

The results for June suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party, with support surging 2.5% points to a record high of 7% in June.

Support for New Zealand First fell back in June, down 0.5% points to 3% and not enough support to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.

A further 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 1% point from a month ago, including 3% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (unchanged) who support Democracy NZ and 2% (unchanged) who support the other parties.

A potential 59 seats for a National/Act NZ coalition and 52 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 59 seats, ahead of the 52 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition – but not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.

The projected results show the Maori Party with 9 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 955 electors during June. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4%, unchanged, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 4 points to 84 in June

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 4pts to 84 in June, its highest since March. A majority of 54% (down 0.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 38% (up 2.5% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 6.3pts to 85.5 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 74.9 on June 19-25, 2023.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

	Total	Women			Men
	Total	All	18-49	50+	All	18-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Labour	30.5	36	26	46.5	25	23	27.5
Greens	9.5	8	8.5	8	11	17	3.5
Labour/ Greens	40	44	34.5	54.5	36	40	31
National	30	30	31	29	30	22	39.5
Act NZ	15	11	14	7.5	19.5	20	18.5
National/ Act NZ	45	41	45	36.5	49.5	42	58
Maori Party	7	9.5	15	3.5	4	7	0.5
NZ First	3	2.5	2	3.5	3.5	1.5	5.5
Others	5	3	3.5	2	7	9.5	5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction	38	38	34.5	41.5	38	42	32.5
Wrong Direction	54	55.5	60	50	53	47	60.5
Government Confidence Rating	84	82.5	74.5	91.5	85	95	72
Can’t say	8	6.5	5.5	8.5	9	11	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Women narrowly favour Labour/Greens while men favour a potential National/Act NZ coalition

On an overall basis women narrowly favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 44% by only 3% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 41%.

Women aged 50+ favour the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 54.5% nearly 20% points ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 36.5%. However, younger women aged 18-49 prefer a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 45% over 10% points ahead of Labour/Greens on 34.5%.

When it comes to men there is a clear preference for a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 49.5% well ahead of the current Labour/Greens governing coalition on 30%.

A large majority of 58% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a third, 31%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.

There is a far closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with 42% supporting a potential National/Act NZ coalition government compared to 40% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.

Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is far higher amongst men at 19.5% compared to only 11% support amongst women.

Support for the Greens is higher amongst younger men than any other gender and age group at 17%. This compares to only 3.5% of men aged 50+. In comparison, support amongst women is relatively even with 8.5% support amongst women aged 18-49 and 8% support amongst women aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 9.5% of women including 15% support from women aged 18-49 and 3.5% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of men including 7% of men aged 18-49 and 0.5% of men aged 50+.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 72 in June

Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased by 4pts to 84 in June.

Among women overall now a majority of 55.5% (up 2.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 38% (up 4.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 82.5 (up 2pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down 3.5pts to 74.5 while it was up 8pts to 91.5 for women aged 50+.

A majority of men, 53% (down 3.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while 38% (up 2.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 85 (up 6pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was up 12pts to 95 while for older men aged 50+ it was down 2pts to only 72.

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23

**Source**: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – June 2023.
**Base**: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

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144 Comments

by IT GUY | 4th Jul 23, 9:00am 1688418034

National need to have a cup of tea with NZ First

by Simon | 4th Jul 23, 9:40am 1688420450

Surely they will!

If labour greens Maori then NZ will be an absolute gang ruled 3rd world country led by complete morons I for one will be out of here and will bring family (extended) with me.

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 10:07am 1688422032

Luxon already ruled it out on a RNZ interview about 6 weeks ago.

Lets see if he flip-flops on that, like everything else he announces and then walks back. Although usually it only takes less than 24 hours for him or his hapless deputy to 'correct' his flubs.

by fortunr | 4th Jul 23, 11:00am 1688425246

I agree 100%. Any Government with the Greens and the Maori Party will be a complete disaster for NZ and will see the best and brightest quickly leaving for Australia.

by Jesse1 | 4th Jul 23, 11:10am 1688425804

You say that but it's only an assumption. National/Act don't care about much except for next years tax free capital gains and stuff everyone else so our best and brightest should leave if they get in. National are the party for boomers, not business.

by JimboJones | 4th Jul 23, 11:28am 1688426898

A left wing win may encourage the (self described) best and brightest boomers to leave, but its actually the only hope for the best and brightest young generation as National and ACT want to further lock them out of the housing market.

by Chaosinflesh | 4th Jul 23, 12:09pm 1688429382

I'm pretty much convinced our best and brightest should leave regardless. I can only conclude since I'm still here that I'm not among that cohort!

by Colin Cameron | 5th Jul 23, 8:28am 1688502498

Yet most of the so called best and brightest voted for the greens and Labour and look were we are

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 9:55am 1688421329

Northland to Shane Jones? Where to put Winston, another crack at Tauranga , getting rid of an embarrassing MP in the process?

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 9:10am 1688418621

I'm not normally a "that poll seems dodgy" kind of guy, but I truly find it hard to believe that TPM is getting close to the Green Party in terms of support.

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 9:36am 1688420161

Roy Morgan is notoriously bouncy, likely as a result of their sampling methodology. I don't think anyone will take this 7% result for TPM seriously.

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 9:43am 1688420605

Aren't they sometimes referred to as 'Rogue Morgan' for this very reason?

I imagine that some of the more extreme element of Green party support might jump waka to TPM (or back again) but 7% seems a wholly unbelievable figure.

It would be like a poll coming out showing New Conservatives on 5% to the detriment of National.

by Advisor | 4th Jul 23, 11:33am 1688427226

Given all parties other than Labour have trended up in polls since election 2020, it seems 6-8pp of ACT polling have come from Labour voters.

Sounds crazy but I could potentially be one of them come election day. I don't trust NZ National and am afraid of Labour-Greens teaming up with TPM, leaving ACT as the only option (wow!).

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 12:32pm 1688430723

Vote TOP.

by cromulent | 4th Jul 23, 12:48pm 1688431685

I certainly intend to. Nothing will change voting for the usual suspects. We desperately need new blood in parliament.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 4th Jul 23, 12:56pm 1688432204

unless you are seriously wealthy voting for Act is an 'act' of self harm

by Advisor | 4th Jul 23, 1:14pm 1688433245

What's the alternative? Labour has been cautiously secretive about their co-governance plans, but Greens-TPM are openly committing to a "one nation, two systems" agenda.

Have you forgotten the Greens-TPM's sneaky attempt to entrench co-governance in the 3-waters reform through Labour's Maori caucus?

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 1:25pm 1688433956

TPM had nothing to do with the entrenchment of 3 Waters, that was driven strongly by Eugenie Sage in the Greens.

by kiwikidsnz | 5th Jul 23, 1:42am 1688478170

& Mahuta

by sadr001 | 4th Jul 23, 3:15pm 1688440521

Act party policies appear to benefit anyone earning over about 15,000 a year? Min wage workers may just miss out on the “rich bugger” 30% tax rate this year but McDonalds workers are getting hit by it because of union agreements that push wages at McDonalds a few cents over minimum wage! Try working an extra shift on a stat day and look at how much of your time and a half extra that you should take home disappears! (It is like half! payslip says it is tax, acc, student loan & kiwi-saver)

by sit23 | 4th Jul 23, 5:52pm 1688449947

No. If one is poor, and one wants to do a bit of work, and get some sort of reward for it, then a government with ACT in it is less likely to screw you over.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 9:51am 1688421088

I would say it means they don't normalise it, like other pollsters.

In a poll of 1000 people , which most of them are , unless you carefully select who you poll , your going to get outliers. what is less unbelieveable to me is the various polls manage to be so close to each other.

by Whatwillhappen | 4th Jul 23, 11:09am 1688425742

The more mainstream pollsters are getting similar results because their sampling techniques are probably very similar. A sample of 1000 does a very good job smoothing out those outliers if selected well. I'm very suspicious of the TPM and ACT results personally.

by agnostium | 4th Jul 23, 9:12am 1688418773

Labour ahead of National, embarrassing for Luxon.

Haven't National ruled out working with the Maori Party and vice versa? With only 59 votes it looks like National are on track to lose...

by Hawkes Bay | 4th Jul 23, 9:36am 1688420192

I think you just dashed all hopes of those still believing National will save their property portfolios from Bankruptcy.

If that does not do it then this will below.

10% Interest Rates This Year, Guaranteed !

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 10:14am 1688422472

Not just Luxon ,you have to wonder who is running their campaign.

Luxon and Willis go no a tour to visit crime affected businesses in Tawa. The best they can come up with is a man who claims the tip jar was stolen from the restaurant across the street, and a Indian dairy owner who isn't too bothered he had cigarettes stolen awhile ago .

And it would appear Tawa is devoid of Maori and Pacific Islanders, who would have thought?

by JimboJones | 4th Jul 23, 10:56am 1688424990

There is always a difference between what people say in a survey and what they actually do. Most National voters will vote, but the young and poorer left wing voters may not bother. I'd give the right wing a 2% head start at least. So it is very close, probably favouring the right wing at present.

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 11:23am 1688426597

Agreed, polling is useful/informative but there is always going to be a deviation come election day owing to turnout.

I also agree that NACT are probably slightly ahead "in the real world" (particularly if you factor in the turnout adjustment effect).

I've done reasonably well in the past with predicting electoral outcomes based off what I refer to as 'Vibe-o-nomics'™.

In fact, I relieved my former work colleagues of a fairly sizeable chunk of cash by being the only one to pick both Brexit and Trump back in 2016, wholly off ignoring whatever polls said and looking at YouTube like to dislike ratios (it was a big setback when YouTube removed that feature)

Vibe-o-nomics™ discards boring scientific data and instead relies on the most accurate tool of all - gut feeling based on anecdotal observation, particularly of social media commentary, dinner party chit-chat and other far more meaningful measures.

My patented Vibe-o-meter is telling me that normal, everyday people (not Wellington civil servants, academics, or Interest.co.nz commenters) don't particularly like National and aren't warming at all to Luxon, but are even more concerned about rampant crime, race-based policies and a general feeling of socioeconomic malaise under the current government. Noses will be held come October, you heard it here first.

by JimboJones | 4th Jul 23, 11:24am 1688426642

It sounds like your Vibe-o-meter has a right wing bias. Did you happen to pick Labour / NZ first two elections ago or Labour getting 50% last election?

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 11:35am 1688427311

I definitely picked Labour last election ... Vibe-o-nomics doesn't care whatsoever for exact percentages, but even a troglodyte caveman like me could have seen that Labour was going to win that election.

NZ was pretty much the best place to be in the world at that point in time (we didn't have much Covid, life was basically the most normal of almost anywhere in the Western world - and I say this as someone who voted for ACT that election). Jacinda rode to victory in a manner that would have left Julius Caesar at one of his Triumphs blushing. Shame it all turned to custard so quickly ... such is life, right?

My view through 2020 was that National was idiotic to boot out Bridges. Just like a journeyman boxer's job isn't to win the bout, but simply to provide credible opposition to the hot prospect all while avoiding taking too much damage so you live to fight another day, National should have had the clout to figure victory was impossible and simply put up a decent fight but accept a foregone conclusion.

My strong belief in this even cost me some business, when I was turfed out of a solidly 'Two Ticks Blue' business networking group for having the audacity to suggest that victory simply wasn't possible for National in 2020.

I'll admit for 2017 to having picked Winston as kingmaker but I thought he would go with National. So 50% on the mark there.

by K.W. | 4th Jul 23, 12:08pm 1688429301

I would agree with this. The poll results seem disconnected to the "vibe". If you look at Stuff comments, usually a cesspit of extreme leftist comments blowing smoke up the Labour and Green parties' you know what, it has now become an endless moan of "this Govt is useless". And that's with Stuff refusing to even post any commentary that is supportive of policies of the Right. It coincided with St Jacinda doing a runner, and it would appear that once the "Saviour" disappeared people were finally free to admit that the Govt had gone off the reservation.

by Macawsley | 4th Jul 23, 12:51pm 1688431917

The 'vibe' in my hood is National are toast due to an un-electable leader and no coherent policy - other than wasting over $8 billion subsidising over extended property investors .

by Cheetahlegs66 | 4th Jul 23, 1:10pm 1688433021

You living in Porirua? Nice community

by Zwifter | 4th Jul 23, 1:30pm 1688434240

Mongrel Mob HQ, didn't you get the National party e-mail ? Clip from social media for the gangs to vote Labour because National are going to come down on them like a ton of bricks with their get tough on crime.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 12:13pm 1688429602

And many will say they don't want tax cuts etc, but when it comes down to it , standing in the polling booth , with all else been equal, they look after number one. National know this , hence they have tax cuts they know we can't really afford.

I think what most people are saying is that National should be 5-105 ahead , given the economic situation , and the current trouble Labour has had with their ministers.

by sit23 | 4th Jul 23, 5:56pm 1688450190

Good call Jimbo. A certain percentage of all respondents in a phone survey will not be bothered doing what they say they will do in a phone call, if it involves them doing any work. Work out for yourselves which parties these kind of people say they support!

by agnostium | 4th Jul 23, 8:48pm 1688460502

National are not right wing. They are just the party of vested interests and corporate welfare. If they were even remotely centre-right they would be walking home.

by Jesse1 | 4th Jul 23, 11:22am 1688426540

A theory - More people maybe be voting Maori after National ruled them out, as a vote for Maori is still a vote for Labour winning.

by agnostium | 4th Jul 23, 8:49pm 1688460584

Yep those who were disappointed Labour did not go far enough would be tempted by TPM. Still keeps National and Act out without having to vote for Labour.

by xingmowang | 4th Jul 23, 9:14am 1688418841

NZ will benefit hugely from being managed by its indigenous people, who owe the spirit power of connecting themselves to the land, the sea and the air, like no other races can in NZ.

I am voting for the mighty Maori party.

by KH | 4th Jul 23, 9:21am 1688419270

Like Ngai Tahu Xing. The determined polluter of our water.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/252230/ngai-tahu-appeals-dairying-d…

by kiwikidsnz | 4th Jul 23, 11:21am 1688426496

You forgot to add sarc/.

I'm currently in Malaysia which is a good example of the racist end game.

by Comyn | 4th Jul 23, 6:58pm 1688453917

Yup, Malaysians know how the race based policy's of a that country work. That's why a lot of their talents leave the country. New Zealand is quickly going down the Nepotism, tribalism and division track.Oh and don't forget the hocus pocus stuff! How wonderful...

by Macawsley | 5th Jul 23, 8:55am 1688504117

"don't forget the hocus pocus stuff!"

The leader of the opposition's has said he has no intention of letting his "deeply committed "beliefs interfere with running the country.

by sit23 | 4th Jul 23, 5:59pm 1688450371

Great Xing! Bring back Utu, cannibalism and slavery, like the old days you remember so well before the whiteys turned up.

by hootenany | 5th Jul 23, 8:05am 1688501143

I am sure all racist parties feel their race is the best to rule over their lands, like the British (Brexit) or Germans. They have already stated that they are genetically superior in sport, joked about murdering David Seymor. If someone started a party to advance the interest of white people there would be an outcry and rightly so. I for one will not support The Maori Supremacist Party or any party that stands by them.

I was a refugee from a country that treated my race as a second class citizen, I do not wish New Zealand to become such a place.

by Beanie | 4th Jul 23, 9:48am 1688420905

Interesting that TPM is 5x more likely to be supported by someone aged under 50 than over 50. Or put another way, voters who are old enough to remember apartheid are much less likely to support them.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 10:18am 1688422685

Maori traditionally voted Labour , and that's what the older ones are continuing to do.

by morepork | 4th Jul 23, 2:09pm 1688436592

Or maybe it's just that voters that grew up with the prevalent attitudes being more racist than now still lean that way?

by Beanie | 4th Jul 23, 3:25pm 1688441143

You had better give us your definition of racism if you think TPM aren't. I'll even let you skip over their name straight onto their policies.

Here's a typical one:

https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/maori_sports

by sammnz | 4th Jul 23, 5:19pm 1688447969

the irony is not lost with the maori party it seems

by sit23 | 4th Jul 23, 6:02pm 1688450540

Crikey. Straight out of the old South Africa, except more hardline.

by starrider | 5th Jul 23, 12:12pm 1688515929

I didn't have to read far to find the stupid:

"Māori invented many sports prior to European arrival. Running, Swimming, Fishing, Waka, Hunting"

by KH | 4th Jul 23, 9:17am 1688419037

I have two conflicting views.

1. Hard to believe anybody could vote TPM.

2. We created chaos that induces the increasing number of desperate people to vote wildly.

by Zwifter | 4th Jul 23, 9:25am 1688419543

Option number 2, the people are getting really desperate for change. If Labour/Greens and TMP get it we are truly stuffed in this country. Still with the woke change to gender neutral toilets why would I be surprised. Still its yet to go the whole way, next it will be illegal for me to take a piss standing up.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 4th Jul 23, 10:13am 1688422414

"truly stuffed as a country" - no hyperbole there then. NZ economy actually riding out this inflation thing with business reporting to ANZ that confidence leapt 13 points in June, the highest read since November 2021.

"woke" - another bingo card term ticked.

"Illegal for me to piss standing up" - It's like you literally go to jail for being a white man these days don't you? Except you really don't.

by K.W. | 4th Jul 23, 12:13pm 1688429582

You will be left to die waiting for medical treatment while our third world hospital system directs all its resources to Maori and Pacific Islander patients. Then it won't matter how you piss.

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 12:33pm 1688430791

Also not what is happening in reality.

by agnostium | 4th Jul 23, 8:55pm 1688460925

So much hyperbole, and fear of and anger towards Maori.

by kiwikidsnz | 5th Jul 23, 1:47am 1688478438

Remember who started it.

by Macawsley | 5th Jul 23, 8:57am 1688504248

Settle down kids.

by hootenany | 5th Jul 23, 8:45am 1688503530

What fear and anger towards Maori? Its towards policies that factor in race in determining outcomes, need should be the factor in determining what help someone gets not race. I believe if you have a need then society should do its best to help no matter what race your are. I have not read one comment here that stated Maori's where bad or worse in any way shape or form. The only comments even insinuating that one race would be better than the other an something are in favor of Maori being better.

NZ will benefit hugely from being managed by its indigenous people.

What I have myself stated is I believe the Maori Party (Not that Maoris in general are any more racist than any other race) is a party based on racist values, just like I would state, if we had one, that White Party would be a racist party.

Racism/Tribalism is inherent in human nature https://cpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com/sites.uci.edu/dist/1/863/files/2019/10/Cl… we need to be ever weary of it, just because you Maori doesn't make you more or less prone to it.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 10:23am 1688422991

Sitting down is better for your prostate, but urinals are a good sign your in the right toilet , after been totally confused by the toilet signs.

by Clefton Twain | 4th Jul 23, 9:21am 1688419286

Labour / National coalition anyone?

by Hawkes Bay | 4th Jul 23, 9:31am 1688419919

It's The Same Thing Anyway.

2 Wings To The Same Bird !

by cjmain | 4th Jul 23, 9:36am 1688420201

you're right, once you take away, 'the oposite of what the other is saying just for the sake of trying to look different' , the two centre parites are the most alligned, more so than National-Act and Labour-Green

by JimboJones | 4th Jul 23, 11:00am 1688425241

One centre party gives all the money to bludgers the other to companies and property investors. But they both pretend to represent the average worker.

by Clefton Twain | 4th Jul 23, 11:34am 1688427271

So a compromise between the two doesn't sounds so bad.

Obviously TOP would be better in my opinion but if we can't have that we might as well have the next least bad option.

by morepork | 4th Jul 23, 2:11pm 1688436679

You mean one party wants to give all the money to property owning bludgers, and the other to bludgers that don't own property?

by kiwikidsnz | 4th Jul 23, 11:25am 1688426752

And a new proportional representation electoral system with STV & without the racist Maori seats.

by JimboJones | 4th Jul 23, 11:31am 1688427077

We can get rid of racism by making it almost impossible to represent Maori?

by kiwikidsnz | 4th Jul 23, 12:54pm 1688432056

The Maori seats were originally supposed to go with the introduction of MMP. There's no justification for having racist election seat selection (there's been no "Maoris" for a 100 years, everyone is a blended ethnicity).

They would of course have the same voter representation as everyone else. And your problem with that is ?

by Noncents | 4th Jul 23, 12:20pm 1688430043

We have a Maori Political Party currently in Parliament, as well as 25 MPs (20%) who identify as Maori, or are of Maori Descent. Further, of the current/recent parties in Govt, four have Maori leaders (Greens, NZF, TPM, ACT).

I feel very well represented without the need for a seperate Electoral system.

by Cheetahlegs66 | 4th Jul 23, 1:13pm 1688433201

It’s called ‘double dipping.’

by Macawsley | 4th Jul 23, 3:17pm 1688440663

How is it "double dipping" ?

by kiwikidsnz | 4th Jul 23, 11:44pm 1688471055

Its actually disproportionate representation.

However when i worked as a return officer for the election I also noticed some of the same people voting on both the Maori and general rolls.

by Macawsley | 5th Jul 23, 9:03am 1688504623

Is that right - What do you call one voter donating $500.000 to the National party?

What do they expect for their money ? - proportionate representation I guess.

by Northlander09 | 5th Jul 23, 12:35pm 1688517335

How is supporting their preferred party the same as voting twice?

by murray86 | 4th Jul 23, 9:45am 1688420722

So far I've not heard a peep from NZ First. Are they even planning on running this time around?

by General Comment | 4th Jul 23, 9:54am 1688421272

NZF just put forward a candidate for the Napier electorate. Winnie turned up for the photo op.

by IT GUY | 4th Jul 23, 9:55am 1688421325

They are down at pak n save selecting tea bags

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 9:57am 1688421438

Preparing for the greatest comeback since George Foreman laced 'em up again in the late 1980s.

by FCM | 4th Jul 23, 9:58am 1688421528

Winnie is an experienced campaigner .. he will time the run. Don't get your voice out their too early people will get sick of it...I would say they will crank it up come 8 weeks out from election day.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 9:48am 1688420921

What I find interesting is both major parties around 30 %.

Has that ever happened before?

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 10:09am 1688422146

Not in MMP, no.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 9:54am 1688421249

a strong TPM vote % wise doesnt benefit the left as much as TPM winning more electoral seats than % votes , creating an overhang.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 4th Jul 23, 10:00am 1688421629

Labour have got to feel pretty good about that. I expect Greens to bounce back and TPM to fade.

by redcows1 | 4th Jul 23, 10:13am 1688422402

Could be wrong but my memory says Greens actual poll is always lower than prior polling.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 4th Jul 23, 10:25am 1688423153

You are right. I suppose I mean I think they will poll higher.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 10:28am 1688423333

No , they generally pick up 1 to 2 %, and get another MP or 2. It pretty much depends on how many young people they can get to enrol and vote , usually on the last few days.

by morepork | 4th Jul 23, 2:13pm 1688436783

Plus overseas voters who are counted later tend to favour the Greens

by sit23 | 4th Jul 23, 6:05pm 1688450729

Greens are one of the parties with lazy phone supporters!

by M0ralHazard | 4th Jul 23, 10:01am 1688421684

How likely is it that TPM will get an electorate seat?

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 10:06am 1688421990

They already have one , are expecting to get 3 , and hoping for more.

by Pragmatist | 4th Jul 23, 10:19am 1688422778

Pretty high while Labour is so disliked. We still have Maori Electorates.

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 10:11am 1688422316

TOP surge when?

On a more serious note, if you are in Ilam (which, unfortunately, I am not any more) I would be giving serious thought to getting one Mr Manji across the line - even if you are a well-heeled Fendalton landowner - as at least TOP presence in parliament would presumably give Labour another coalition partner choice?

It's clear they aren't going to get 5%, but maybe the good people of Ilam can be like Obi-Wan Kenobi - our only hope.

by redcows1 | 4th Jul 23, 10:15am 1688422559

For any electorate there is always upside to voting in a minor candidate. Wish more would see it strategically.

by JimboJones | 4th Jul 23, 11:03am 1688425388

Manji has implied Labour are the least likely of their coalition partners.

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 11:42am 1688427748

Really? I would have thought Labour and TOP were better aligned than National and TOP.

No matter, if you are in Ilam do your duty and get Raf across the line if only to add another dimension to NZ politics.

by sammnz | 4th Jul 23, 5:21pm 1688448113

they have sound policies, it will take one person to get in to make waves.

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 12:39pm 1688431171

He's said no such thing.

Their intention is to sit on the cross-benches and work with anyone that is interested in their policies. That includes Act and NZFirst.

by cromulent | 4th Jul 23, 12:52pm 1688431940

even if you are a well-heeled Fendalton landowner

Unfortunately for that reason I wonder if Ilam is the wrong seat for Raf. It's the wealthiest of Christchurch's electorates. Chch Central may have been a better choice.

by kiwikidsnz | 4th Jul 23, 12:55pm 1688432109

Ilam has a large number of students

by cromulent | 4th Jul 23, 1:11pm 1688433109

Yes but it's split between Ilam and Wigram. South of Riccarton Road is Wigram (or at least it used to be) where at least half of student flats were when I went to Canterbury. That was 15-20 years ago so it's possible that has changed.

Wealthy people still make up the majority of Ilam I believe which is why I am concerned TOP's tax policy will not fare well there. Hopefully Raf knows better than me though and he can still win.

by sit23 | 4th Jul 23, 6:08pm 1688450880

The electorate has been embiggened since your day, so different voting patterns will occur.

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 1:02pm 1688432551

100% agreed, terrible choice of an electorate to run in.

Apart from the aberration that was 2020, Ilam is as blue as a summer's sky.

The rich Fendaltonians will not go for TOP, as they will be punished by the proposed land tax. The student vote will either not show up due to being piss crook or will go to the Greens. Where Raf could do ok is by courting the 'middle class' areas around Burnside etc but realistically that would require cooking up a deal with Labour.

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 1:18pm 1688433533

He's running in Ilam because he came 2nd there in 2017 to Gerry Brownlee, who is not contesting the electorate again.

He had a reasonable profile as being in charge of finance when he was on the city council and so has name recognition in the electorate.

by redcows1 | 4th Jul 23, 10:10am 1688422254

Such a beautiful wind up for the "everything is woke" brigade. Really brought a smile to my face this morning.

Be careful Zwifter, don't get it caught in your zip in confusion.

by kwbrn | 4th Jul 23, 10:12am 1688422323

I think NAT/ACT make a much better opposition than LAB/GRN ever did, it seems to suit their temperament.

Let's leave them there.

by Takere | 4th Jul 23, 10:14am 1688422482

Mowree party 7%?? Yeah Right! I guess this poll is what you would call a 'rogue' poll. And the trans-nana beating party the greens?? I doubt it.

It's gunna be well Hung—all the way to another election. Someone may be able to cobble together a minority government temporarily and then it'll all fall apart within 6 months.

by Due Diligence | 4th Jul 23, 10:45am 1688424330

With the incompetence of the current Government being what it is, I can’t believe National and Act aren’t further ahead.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 4th Jul 23, 10:55am 1688424943

It is almost as if either party hasn't released a single policy of note other than to let farmers off with everything, reverse all recently agreed property rules and jail everyone. National simply aren't credible.

by Zwifter | 4th Jul 23, 10:59am 1688425188

I'm starting to think that all the smart people have actually left New Zealand. Clearly the "Brain Drain" was not a myth after all, the smart people gave up and left and looking at the way this country is trending after 6 years, who can blame them.

by K.W. | 4th Jul 23, 12:16pm 1688429780

Over 112,000 people have left NZ in the last 4 months. You are probably correct.

by Northlander09 | 4th Jul 23, 11:30am 1688427005

What do the 15% of women aged 18-49 know that the rest of us don't?!

by Takere | 4th Jul 23, 6:22pm 1688451756

They know what a woman is perhaps?

by Cheetahlegs66 | 4th Jul 23, 11:36am 1688427366

A poll of 1000 people typically has a margin of error of 3% with binary questions eg choose black or white.

Any stats men/women/intersex who can apply this to the 7% of TPM and give us a confidence interval for the result?

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 12:47pm 1688431630

The reported 'margin of error' for polls is actually really quite a sophisticated measure that most people (including myself, until recently) don't really understand at all.

The margin of error is really: "For a poll that reports support of a particular party at 50%, the margin of error of +/- 3% means that 95% of the time the true support for that party is somewhere in the range of 47% to 53%".

2 particular points to note there:

1. The margin of error is actually relative to the indicated result and the quoted margin of error is for a result of 50%, even when no party in the poll is at 50%. The margin grows the further away you get from the 50% marker, so for example a poll that registers a party at 30% with a central margin of error of 3%, the margin for that particular party actually might be more like +/- 4%. This means that for very small parties (anyone <10%), the margin of error may actually be as large as 5-6%.

2. The 95% confidence interval is applied with the big assumption that the poll was entirely statistically fair in its sample selection. This is extremely difficult to achieve in practice as you need to have demographic weightings, geographic weightings, and that's before you even take into account likeliness of voting (I think NZ polling companies by and large simply don't factor likeliness of voting in to their models at all).

by KH | 4th Jul 23, 1:34pm 1688434491

Lanthanide: thanks for the good "error" info

From that I assume that the headline result of 7% for TPM really means. +/- 5%.

So TPM could be 2% or 12% or anywhere in between. From this poll result, correctly interpreted.

Yes. My assumption is an assumption. Interested to hear if it's anywhere near right.

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 4:27pm 1688444854

Yes that would be my take on it.

But I don't have any formal qualifications in polling or statistics, it's just a topic I'm interested in and read about a lot and I've got a pretty good memory.

by printer8 | 4th Jul 23, 12:08pm 1688429282

Ummm . . . .My thinking currently is not about who I really want to see in government, rather who I don't want to see. My vote is likely to be tactically against my least preferred choices.

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 1:23pm 1688433812

That's basically why I'm voting TOP.

If TOP can get in with 2-3 seats they may be the kingmaker of who governs. I would rather have ACT + National + TOP than ACT + National, and I'd rather have Greens + Labour + TPM & TOP than Greens + Labour + TPM.

If they don't get in then my vote is 'wasted' and therefore proportionately split amongst the other parties anyway.

by Due Diligence | 4th Jul 23, 1:38pm 1688434681

I encourage you to waste your vote on TOP. One more vote down the drain that would otherwise have made an actual difference by going to the Greens or Labour. TOP leader recently admitted as much by stating that the current 5% threshold undermines the principle that every vote counts.

by cromulent | 4th Jul 23, 2:04pm 1688436274

I'm not prepared to give my vote to the established players any longer. NZ is in the mess it is in because of National and Labour and I do not see that changing regardless of which one is in power.

Therefore I intend to vote for TOP who I believe may at least disrupt and start to change some of the old ways of thinking even if they sit on the cross benches. I am prepared to vote for them even if they may not win a seat given that a vote for the established left or right block is also a wasted vote in my view.

by morepork | 4th Jul 23, 2:18pm 1688437096

That's a perfectly cromulent opinion

by Lanthanide | 4th Jul 23, 4:30pm 1688445000

Raf has a reasonable chance of winning Ilam, hence why they could get 2-3 seats in Parliament by having them coat-tail on him.

Also my single vote will make 0 difference if I voted for Labour or Greens. How could it?

Even without that I'd probably still vote for them because they best represent my policy positions and world outlook, and electoral advertising funding in 2026 is strongly influenced by 2023 vote share.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 5:11pm 1688447473

To sit on the cross benches, as it stands, would mean having to give one of the major coalitions confidence and supply agreement.

It could get very interesting.

If labour propose looking at some kind of capital gains tax, and national unlikely to look at any ubi, I would have thought labour would be a more likely fit for TOP. It's hard to see what National could offer them, and retain Act 's support.

by Pragmatist | 4th Jul 23, 1:44pm 1688435061

Its sad that this is what we are reduced to. "Anybody idiot except those idiots" isn't a great way to run a country.

by ngakonui gold | 4th Jul 23, 11:47am 1688428049

Who doesn't want to live in a country where if you wear an item of clothing that is of a certain colour you get your comeuppance,

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 1:36pm 1688434619

A terrible incident, but hardly a threat to everyone country wide.

by Zwifter | 4th Jul 23, 1:37pm 1688434628

Shit I never knew that wearing red for Labour or blue for National could be so dangerous to my health.

by Firstclass | 4th Jul 23, 6:05pm 1688450713

If we want New Zealand to succeed, we need to shift focus from "popularity party" votes to "most skilled for the job" votes.

It will never happen, but imagine a New Zealand for a moment where the finance minister and all ministerial position is voted for based on skills, as opposed to who is popular etc etc..

Sigh, that sounds like a lot on how we vote for council members.

by agnostium | 4th Jul 23, 9:05pm 1688461504

I think you misunderstand the role of elected members and what type of skill is required to be one

by kiwi_overseas | 4th Jul 23, 6:27pm 1688452057

I can’t believe the support for ACT.

They are nothing more than a gun totting failed neoliberal policy party.

People are suckered in by the promise of tax reductions forgetting they will have to pay via user pays.

by solardb | 4th Jul 23, 7:41pm 1688456473

When Act pulled 1 to5 %, nobody bothered costing their policies. Now they are at 15%,they will, and I expect there will be a hole you could park the super moon in.

by dumbthoughts | 4th Jul 23, 8:34pm 1688459660

Costing, shmosting ... who cares outside of political tragics?

Doesn't matter what country, which party, which side of the political spectrum you're on ... policies always wind up coming in over budget, over time, or otherwise disappointing when measured against what was supposed to happen.

I couldn't care less whether a party has costed its policies or not, as I don't believe for a nanosecond that any party (even the ones I want to see succeed) is capable of actually achieving policy objectives within the claimed costs.

Look at Labour with Te Pukenga, or 3 Waters. Look at the Tories in the UK with Brexit. Whether a policy is "fully costed" or not has no bearing on whether it will be implemented, because it won't be implemented the way the average pleb like you or I thinks.

What matters is the general direction of policy and vision a party/coalition wants to point a country towards. Everything else is noise.

by Due Diligence | 4th Jul 23, 7:44pm 1688456668

A party that promotes equality under the law regardless of race, tried and tested free market economics, law and order, meaningful prioritisation of mental health, freedom of speech.

Sounds dreadful /sarc.

by Macawsley | 5th Jul 23, 9:43am 1688507003

ACT have shown themselves to be contemptuous hypocrites - unable or unwilling to follow basic electoral law.(take your pick)

by Cheetahlegs66 | 4th Jul 23, 7:48pm 1688456920

They oppose co-governance. They oppose the Maori Health Authority.

by kaczor47 | 5th Jul 23, 1:03pm 1688519015

Hence the get the votes.

by Northern Lights | 4th Jul 23, 9:02pm 1688461323

I'm in Upper Harbour, last election I voted NZ First nationally and Labour locally (Vanushi). I'm officially calling Upper Harbour for Cameron Brewer, the National candidate.

I received a letter in the post for Cameron the National candidate, which is not out of the ordinary lots of people received similar letters for their National party candidate. Then I was watching a U-tube video on oil bears (as you do) when who should appear but Mr Brewer leaning against the railing at Hobsonville marina saying Hi I'm Cameron Brewer I'm the National Party candidate for Upper Harbour and I hope you're enjoying your U-tube video. Five seconds in total but I think that is pretty slick.

In advertising lore it takes three adds to get someone's attention but he's only taken two to lock in my local vote.

by agnostium | 4th Jul 23, 9:16pm 1688462178

National under Luxon are terrible but I'll concede that Brewer isn't that bad.

by Twitchbar@ | 5th Jul 23, 7:17am 1688498245

What Maori?

Mixed race is no race

by Colin Cameron | 5th Jul 23, 8:30am 1688502612

I for one have never been phoned for one of these polls and also have asked alot of people over the years and like me never. Do they ph the same people select people every time I wonder.