Statistics NZ's estimates on monthly migration have swung back into the black after it made substantial revisions to its earlier estimates of migration flows.
Last month, Statistics NZ estimated that net migration turned negative in May, with 17,340 arriving in NZ long-term and 19,383 departing long-term, giving a net loss of 2043 people for the month.
It has now revised those figures substantially, and its latest estimate is that just 13,544 people arrived in NZ long-term in May, and just 13,181 departed long-term. That turned the previously estimated net loss of 2043 in May to a net gain of 363.
The revisions arise because it takes 16 months for Statistics NZ's migration figures to be finalised, and the monthly estimates in particular can be subject to major revisions, especially when migration patterns are going through major changes.
Which of course is precisely when timely and accurate data would be most helpful.
Statistics NZ is now estimating the net gain in June was exactly 1000 people, the highest it has been during the three months to June.
However the June figures are also likely to be subject to revision.
The annual figures are likely more reliable, but are still subject to revision.
These show the annual net gain from migration has been declining, from a June year peak of 108,839 in 2023, to 73,270 in the 12 months to June this year.
Although the figure for the year to June 2024 is still provisional and therefore subject to revision, it does suggest that although net migration gains are falling back from the record highs of last year and 2020, they are running at the third highest annual level since at least 2002, which is as far back as the figures go in their current format.
- The comment stream on this story is now closed.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.