Outlier? New poll puts NZ First near 10%

Public Policy / news

Winston Peters’ campaign for reelection in 2026 has a running start as new polls show growing support for the New Zealand First Party

10th Jul 25, 3:24pm by Dan Brunskill

New Zealand First's 2023 caucus

New Zealand First could leap-frog the Act and Green parties to become the third largest in Parliament, according to a new Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll.

The advocacy group’s latest poll, released on Thursday, showed NZ First surging 3.7 points to 9.8%. That’s a record high for the series and in this term of Parliament, but not unheard of in the party’s long history.

In 1996, NZ First polled as high as 29%, although it only won 13.4% on election day, and it also secured double digit results in 2002 when it won 10.4% of votes. It won just 6.1% in 2023.

Party leader Winston Peters, who handed the deputy prime minister role to David Seymour at the end of May, also rose 1.3 points to 9.3% in the preferred PM ratings.

The veteran politician promised to start campaigning for the 2026 election once he stepped down as DPM, likely wary of the party’s history of falling out of favour with voters after serving in a coalition.

National–Act–NZ First have been different from previous groupings in that the minor parties have been given a lot more room to express their individual views and even directly criticise the Government they are part of.

This may have contributed to the fairly stable polling for minor parties. Voters and supporters can more easily see Act and NZ First advocating for their positions, helped along by slick direct communication through Youtube videos and regular newsletters.

Few of the minor parties, including the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, have seen much sustained change in their support levels relative to the 2023 election result. Act has had a couple of surges above 10% but it has dissipated each time.

Thursday’s TPU–Curia poll is not a complete outlier. An RNZ–Reid Research poll from May put the party’s support at 9.1% and other individual polls have seen them nudge as high as 8%.

If replicated in an election, it would likely give NZ First 12 seats in Parliament up from eight. The same poll showed the Green Party likely losing two seats and also at 12, while the Act Party steady with eleven seats.

NZ First’s jump in this poll seemingly came at the expense of Labour, which fell 3.2 points to 31.6%. That puts it back behind the National Party after briefly pulling ahead last month.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon fell half a point in the preferred PM ratings to 19.7%, putting him on an even footing with opposition leader Chris Hipkins at 19.6%. David Seymour slipped slightly to 5.7% while Chloe Swarbrick rose to 7%.

As in other polls, 21.6% of respondents picked the cost of living as their most important issue, another 19.1% picked the economy more generally, and 13.3% chose healthcare.

This is the result of just one poll. Interest.co.nz’s simple average shows NZ First with 8.6% support based on all recent results. But even this more modest estimate still puts the party at a record high since the election last year.

Note: The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 02 and Sunday 06 July 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 7.9% were undecided on the party vote question.

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14 Comments

by Foxglove. | 10th Jul 25, 3:42pm 1752118973

Understandable. NZF & Act are doing the pinch hitting for the government and the wily experience of Winston Peters is now more influential than ever before. The media in general appear to be determined to disregard the fact that this coalition government is working in true MMP fashion. While there may be, as would normally be expected, ebbs and flows of poll results shared between them the most important feature is the three parties continue to work together regardless of that, and as a cohesive government and in its own entirety.This is now halfway through the term and on present form the government can go to the electorate next year with a proven track record of cooperation and stability. On the other hand the opposition have no such record to display and in fact, given the rancorous and unruly performances emanating from both the Greens and TPM during the last eighteen months and beyond, will be hard pressed to convince the electorate that they can muster anywhere near the same credibility.

by Wilco | 10th Jul 25, 3:34pm 1752118444

The Greens' fairyland economic theories are taking away from any positive contribution they make to the discussion on the environment.

And with a pretty bland line up of candidates across all political parties Shane Jones provocative utterances are bound to attract attention, We do look for personality in our politicians - even sometimes at the expense of wisdom.

by Kate | 10th Jul 25, 7:18pm 1752131925

As in other polls, 21.6% of respondents picked the cost of living as their most important issue,

And given it's likely all of those respondents see the cost of accommodation as their biggest expense, I cannot understand why no party is recommending rent controls. One third of households are renting.

by Foxglove. | 10th Jul 25, 8:59pm 1752137974

Governments treat landlords as a business, an example of free enterprise and approached in a virtual “laissez faire” mode as if any business where collateral mostly decides the lending conditions, ie most importantly rate of interest charged. That is the guts of the problem. Way back in say the 60/70s a bank loan secured by a rental property attracted an interest rate determined by the RBNZ that was applied to businesses in general and was of a considerably higher rate than that of private household mortgages. The RBNZ imposed what was described as a “corset” on all lending by the trading banks and interest rates were tiered in terms of priorities that the RBNZ set.There was in fact further differentiation.The then five trading banks did not lend to private households. That was the regime of Building Societies, localised Savings Banks, State Advances and solicitors. Later the trading banks were allowed to introduce savings banks loans as a dedicated facility within their overall operation. All that went out the window with rogernomics. At that point, and with the governments that followed, any recognition of any difference in the finance of an owner occupied property was discontinued. For example of how it had been largely governed, the 3rd Labour government of Norman Kirk had legislated the Property Speculation tax. Simply put, that categorised any property not owned by the occupier, as being a business, full stop. It was effective. So much so that Rob Muldoon was not forced to repeal it until midway through his second term.

by rastus | 11th Jul 25, 1:36pm 1752197805

I know you have a thing about rent controls.

But how many landlords are making it work in the current market? Maybe the ones who were in 10year + back, but since then its mostly negative. The market is already controlling rent. A bureaucracy policing rent increase is another layer of govt we don't need.

Fix the tax and welfare setting and dela with it at the coal face.

by The_Golem | 12th Jul 25, 4:20pm 1752294058

This is definitely worth a listen about the US and Scandinavian experience with rent control - https://freakonomics.com/podcast/why-rent-control-doesnt-work/ - about why rent controls have all sorts of unintended, but foreseeable, consequences.

by rolande | 11th Jul 25, 7:47am 1752176866

I know a lot of people on left and right who really don't know who to vote for. Most regular parties aren't doing it for them.

Some protest votes must be going to NZF.

Problem is, it's still a one person party so after Winnie retires I think it will quickly deflate

by rastus | 11th Jul 25, 4:26pm 1752207978

National are too scarred to tackle the separatist partnership nonsense. That's one reason to a pick up of NZF.

In a recent Stuff article they listed reasons why people leaving NZ. They missed one, that being the M issue.

Media need to pull the heads out of the cloud

by kiwikidsnz | 11th Jul 25, 4:01pm 1752206487

Stuff moderate comments to ensure alignment with their editorial perspective (= propaganda).

by Foxglove. | 11th Jul 25, 4:51pm 1752209519

Stuff is a disgrace. That their continuance is subsidised by the taxpayer is a scandal.

by 11boomer11 | 11th Jul 25, 7:46pm 1752219961

You can still post comments which the moderators read, along the lines of "free speech banned"

by KH | 11th Jul 25, 3:32pm 1752204758

Winston Peters can be a really difficult character. Not saying he is erratic but he has put on a valuable performance this last couple of years.

A strong reason for the NZF poll result I think.

by 11boomer11 | 11th Jul 25, 7:47pm 1752220066

Will stuart nash sign on the nzf team, he'll make a good contribution to them instead of when he wore the red dog collar

by Foxglove. | 11th Jul 25, 8:23pm 1752222189

Perhaps. At least he had the shoulders and a straight enough back to go in and bat for his constituents as a priority. Not that many MPs are prepared to act likewise, most instead simply toe the party line. Agree he would add to NZF’s calibre.