National and Labour are now within a percentage point of each other in the latest political poll, with the governing coalition's majority still enough to form a government, according to the latest Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll.
Released on Thursday, the Taxpayer's Union-Curia Poll for July also had the major party leaders, National's Christopher Luxon and Labour's Chris Hipkins, within 0.1% in the preferred prime minister rankings.
|
Labour |
31.5% |
↓0.7 |
|
National |
30.5% |
↑0.4 |
|
NZ First |
10.8% | ↓0.6 |
|
Green |
10.4% |
↓1.1 |
|
ACT |
6.9% |
↓0.9 |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
3.4% |
↑0.3 |
|
Other |
6.5% |
↑2.5 |
Opportunity Party was on 3.3% while 6.6% were undecided on the party vote.
Translated to seats, which assumes there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori, it would give Labour (41), the Green Party (13) and Te Pāti Māori (4), which is a total of 58.
The coalition would have National (39), NZ First (14) and ACT (9), at a total of 62 - enough to form a government.
For preferred PM, the two major party leaders are also closing in, with Labour's Hipkins on 19.2% and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon on 19.1%. Winston Peters was at 11.8%, David Seymour was on 5.1% and Chlöe Swarbrick was at 4.6%.
For the question around the country heading in the right/wrong direction, 39.2% thought it was heading in the right direction and 45.5% thought it was heading in the wrong direction.
The poll of 1000 New Zealanders was taken on landlines, mobiles and online between July 1-5 and had a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
9 Comments
All these changes are within the poll margin of error.
This might be a better guide. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_…
Polls have been too close to call through the year. Recently the TOP "lipstick on a pig" wildcard has attracted those simple minds not already in the Greens, so now >5% which if support holds may well be the game changer - whatever TOP says publicly about working with National they only have the Left where they'll be listened to.
Apparently the choice is between "trust us, we think we're better at managing the economy even if its not working atm & if you don't like our principles: well, we have others (if our Coalition partners remind us of them)" or "trust us to steal enough of other people's money to ensure all NZdrs are equal at the lowest common denominator & we'll never let you forget that some are more equal than others because reasons you're not sophisticated enough to understand (eg our electoral reliance on our Marxist & racist partners)"
Four months to go. Compared to previous elections at this stage it seems to me to be rather subdued.,Certainly so on this site and the absence of the partisan grandstanding is welcome. Generally a quiet run up to an election favours the incumbent. The leaders debates though may dish up some interest. On one side a PM who has difficulty in articulating his government’s case, and on the other, a leader who has difficulty in concealing past flaws and questionable conduct.
From your comments, you are satisfied with the results of the status quo continuing? I guess that’s democracy.
Me, I feel sold down the river by neoliberal policies.
Me, I want change, but this time in a thoughtful way, not the change we were forced to implement under pressure in the 1980s.
Let’s have some long term solutions proposed, not roads of national significance or free GP visits.
We need to ask and answer the question, what are we good for?
So, yes, TOP seems a reasonable choice to me.
I think my comments, albeit blunt summaries, were obviously also critical of the National-led Government.
"... not the change we were forced to implement under pressure in the 1980s."
Your alternative being? (I was also there at the time).
Typically, with occasional exceptions, NZ chooses the least worst option at elections, I see no reason why this one will be different l.
I cant think of a better alternative to the 80s reforms, because at that time, we were under the pump. Remember when the DFC failed? Core blimey, a Government Bank failure!
But today, in my view, we have an entrenched and entitled governance and management coterie, with no purpose other than to control us and pull up the ladder on new thoughts.
examples? That INZ data corruption. NZ police senior managers. The scandal to deny Mike Smith his right to a day in court. The supermarket duopoly. The lack of infrastructure planning, shall I stop? Oh, ok then, the disaster of productivity, the wage structure that requires Government money to pay a wage,
Yes, I am tee d off with the blues, the reds, the blacks, the pinks, the greens. My disappointment is equal for all those in the public service and MPs
"I cant think of a better alternative to the 80s reforms, because at that time, we were under the pump. Remember when the DFC failed? Core blimey, a Government Bank failure! "
The DFC failed due to the 80s reforms....it wasnt a. motivation for them
Hubris. Exposed when DFC applied to become a bank.
https://www.nzae.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/Session4/44_Smith.pdf
While the populace are fed sugar-coated bull--it, why bother surveying them?
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