Reductions in pastoral farming among advice unveiled by the Climate Change Commission on how to handle greenhouse gas emissions in the years ahead

New Zealand will have to convert thousands of hectares of dairy land into low emissions land use such as horticulture each year, according to the Climate Change Commission. 

It will also have to reduce sheep and cattle numbers. 

Despite this, the impact on gross domestic product (GDP) will be modest, according to provisional figures.  And the total emissions reductions would be considerable, though these figures could change.   

This information comes in a report by the Commission on what New Zealand can do to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2031 and 2035. This is a follow up to existing pledges dating from 2015 to 2030. 

The issue began with the Paris conference on climate change in 2015.

Then, New Zealand issued a promise – called a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) - to reduce net emissions 30% below 2005 gross emissions by 2030, which was later upgraded to 50%. 

There have been persistent claims that New Zealand has not done what it needs to do to make that pledge come true.  But progress or no progress, the Climate Change Commission is obliged to look ahead anyway, and help to plan a course of action for the post 2030 world. In that era, a second phase of emissions reductions will have to be applied, known as NDC2.

The report which the commission has just released is intended to help the Government make a decision on NDC2 by next February.

Despite waves of pessimism about slow progress on the first NDC, the Commission tries to strike an upbeat note about prospects for the second.    

“The good news is that our latest report shows that it's possible, both economically and in practical terms, for Aotearoa New Zealand to substantially reduce domestic emissions,” says the Chairman of the Commission, Rod Carr.

“But that is only if there is investment and further action in the next six years to decarbonise energy, industry and transport.”

In its report, the Commission breaks down its advice by offering three scenarios: Slow, moderate and fast rates of emissions reductions. It applies those scenarios to agriculture along with several other sectors, including energy, transport, and industry and waste. It argues addressing agriculture is vital, saying 2021 figures showed agriculture producing 51% of New Zealand’s GHG emissions, with most of that being biogenic methane.

In issuing its suggestions for agriculture, the Commission assumes progress will already have been made before the NDC2 era begins. 

“To enable emissions reductions in the NDC2 period……we assume the following actions by 2030: Conversion of about 3000 hectares of dairy land per annum to lower emissions land use including horticulture, a build-up of low methane breeding for sheep from 2023 and introduction of low methane breeding for dairy by 2029,” the Commission report says.

And from 2031, there will have to be further reductions reaching 6000 hectares of dairy land and 110,000 hectares of sheep and beef country, according to the most ambitious of the three scenarios. 

Along with this would be reductions in the size of the dairy herd, of 8%, 12% and 15% according to the low, middle and high reductions scenarios. Dairy sector revenue would be 1%, 4% and 8% lower. 

The loss of dairy land would be greatest in the central North Island while land in Otago and Southland would be most prone to conversion from sheep and beef to forestry. In addition, reductions in dairy size could be varied depending on the conditions faced by individual farmers.

The Commission’s report also looks at forestry. It notes there would have to be a huge increase in planting in the years after 2030, and would be dominated by native forests under the most ambitious scenario, which would add greatly to the cost.  

The report also postulates the economic impact of all these options, and finds they would shave between $100 million and $700 million off New Zealand’s GDP, though it adds some costs from the change are hard to pin down, and it does not enumerate the benefits such as less damage to land from mitigated climate change. 

Besides agriculture, the report looks at other sectors, and calls for a fast movement away from coal, a slower movement away from gas, greater energy efficiency, along with demand side management and storing surplus CO2 underground.  It also wants more electric vehicles and far less organic waste sent to landfills.   

Collectively, all this work could reduce annual net emissions by 39% to 69% depending on the range of the three scenarios and on varying methodologies and starting dates for assessing comparative levels.  

And the report echoes earlier calls for payments to be made to other countries to help fight the emissions battle, but does not go into detail, saying the main thrust of its report is domestic, not foreign action.