Angus Kebbell's new documentary investigation looks at the reality of what is happening with the spread of carbon forestry and asks whether the current trajectory is the right one

What began as a passing observation has, over the past few years developed into something far more substantial. Like many in the sector, I had been aware of land use change for some time and I have produced many podcast episodes on this topic.

Pine trees going into hill country was nothing new, and forestry has long had a place within New Zealand’s farming landscape. But there was a point where the pace, the scale and the nature of that change began to feel different.

Travelling through parts of the country, particularly traditional sheep and beef regions, there was a noticeable shift. Farms that had been part of local communities for generations were being sold and converted into permanent carbon forests. It was not a one-off or an isolated case. It was happening repeatedly, and often quietly. Conversations with farmers began to reflect the same pattern. Questions were being asked, not just about individual decisions, but about where this was heading and what it meant for the future of rural New Zealand.

That was the starting point for OFFSET. Not as a predetermined argument, but as an attempt to understand what was actually happening beneath the surface.

The deeper I looked into it, the more complex it became. On one hand, the economics were clear. The Emissions Trading Scheme had created a mechanism where carbon had a value and for some landowners, particularly those with harder hill country, carbon forestry presented a financially attractive option. It offered certainty, reduced labour and, in some cases, a way out of increasingly tight margins in traditional farming systems.

On the other hand, there was a growing sense that something more fundamental was at play. When productive farmland begins to shift out of food production and into a single purpose use, the implications extend well beyond the farm gate. Rural communities rely on more than just land ownership. They rely on people, on employment, on contracting businesses, on schools and on the broader economic activity that comes from active farming systems.

Through the process of making OFFSET, those themes came through consistently. Farmers spoke not just about land use, but about identity and continuity. There was a strong sense of stewardship, of land being passed down through generations, and a concern about what happens when that chain is broken. Consultants and industry voices brought another layer, highlighting the policy settings and economic drivers that are shaping these decisions, often in ways that are not immediately visible to those outside the sector.

One of the most striking aspects was the role of the carbon market itself. At its core, the idea of pricing carbon is intended to drive behaviour change and reduce emissions. But the question that kept resurfacing was whether the current structure is achieving that outcome, or whether it is enabling a system where emissions are offset rather than reduced at source.

That distinction matters. If carbon forestry becomes the primary tool for meeting emissions targets, there is a risk that it distorts land use decisions in ways that may not align with the long term interests of the country. New Zealand’s economy remains heavily reliant on its primary sector, and the balance between environmental responsibility and productive capacity is not a theoretical issue. It is a practical one, playing out in real time.

At the same time, it is important to recognise that forestry itself is not the problem. When integrated well, it has a valuable role to play. The concept of the right tree in the right place is widely accepted, and many farmers have been incorporating forestry into their systems for years. The concern raised through OFFSET is not about forestry as part of a mixed land use model, but about the large scale conversion of entire farming systems into permanent carbon blocks.

There is also a broader national perspective that sits behind this. Land use is not just an individual decision, even though it is made at an individual level. It shapes the country’s ability to produce food, to generate export income and to sustain rural communities. Once land moves into permanent forestry, particularly under current settings, it is unlikely to return to agricultural use. That makes these decisions effectively long term, if not permanent.

Producing the film reinforced the importance of connecting policy to real world outcomes. It is easy for discussions around emissions, carbon pricing and land use to become abstract. But on the ground, the impacts are tangible. They are seen in changing landscapes, in fewer stock units, in reduced demand for contracting services and in the gradual reshaping of rural communities.

What became clear is that this is not a simple issue with a single answer. There are legitimate perspectives on all sides. Landowners have the right to make decisions that are economically viable for them. The country has a responsibility to address emissions and environmental challenges. The tension lies in how those objectives are balanced, and whether current settings are leading to the outcomes that were originally intended.

OFFSET is an attempt to bring those questions into the open. It does not set out to provide definitive answers, but to present the reality of what is happening and to ask whether the current trajectory is the right one.

For me personally, the process has shifted this from an area of interest to something that sits at the centre of how I view the sector’s future. It has highlighted the need for ongoing scrutiny, for informed discussion and for a willingness to challenge assumptions. The pace of change in land use is unlikely to slow in the short term, and the decisions being made now will shape the landscape for decades to come.

There is an opportunity here to get this right. To ensure that carbon forestry is part of a balanced system rather than a dominant one. To align environmental goals with productive outcomes. And to support rural communities in a way that recognises their role not just in food production, but in the wider fabric of the country.

That requires clear thinking, good policy and a strong connection between what is decided at a national level and what is happening on the ground.

OFFSET is one contribution to that conversation. It reflects what I have seen, what I have heard and what I believe are questions worth asking. Where it goes from here will depend not just on the film itself, but on how the sector and the country, chooses to respond.

Watch above to hear the full story.

Angus Kebbell is a producer at The Weekly Hotwire. You can contact him here.