bnzeconomists

BNZ expects the rate curve to steepen through 2015. Disappointing GDT auction result will keep markets subdued

BNZ expects the rate curve to steepen through 2015. Disappointing GDT auction result will keep markets subdued

Currency markets focused on the recession in Japan, and the ECB's signal that buying sovereign bonds is now a real option

Currency markets focused on the recession in Japan, and the ECB's signal that buying sovereign bonds is now a real option

Draghi confirms buying sovereign bonds an option for the ECB, Japan's new recession weights on markets, US 10-year yields push up

Draghi confirms buying sovereign bonds an option for the ECB, Japan's new recession weights on markets, US 10-year yields push up

Gains against the USD, Yen and GBP as those currencies all weakened; but these trends lack conviction

Gains against the USD, Yen and GBP as those currencies all weakened; but these trends lack conviction

Services sector strength expected to be confirmed but growth not breeding infation yet

Services sector strength expected to be confirmed but growth not breeding infation yet

Expanding local factory sector bullish on jobs, underpins rise in NZD. Gains strong vs JPY and GBP

Expanding local factory sector bullish on jobs, underpins rise in NZD. Gains strong vs JPY and GBP

A more hawkish RBNZ and a confident Fonterra underpin a local rise in swap and bond yields; offshore yields drifted

A more hawkish RBNZ and a confident Fonterra underpin a local rise in swap and bond yields; offshore yields drifted

Swaps rise as RBNZ keeps LVR restrictions in place for now; BNZ view is OCR hikes on hold until December 2015

Swaps rise as RBNZ keeps LVR restrictions in place for now; BNZ view is OCR hikes on hold until December 2015

Fonterra confirms milk price forecast; positive momentum driving NZD higher; UK CPI to fall below 1%

Fonterra confirms milk price forecast; positive momentum driving NZD higher; UK CPI to fall below 1%

Flurry of speculation around removal of LVR limits; NZ swap rates bounce higher; 2-10s curve sits at 53bps; generic 10-yr bond yielding well above developed nations

Flurry of speculation around removal of LVR limits; NZ swap rates bounce higher; 2-10s curve sits at 53bps; generic 10-yr bond yielding well above developed nations

NZDJPY at highest level since October 2007; thin volumes due to US holiday helps NZD push higher; Oil price continues recent decline

NZDJPY at highest level since October 2007; thin volumes due to US holiday helps NZD push higher; Oil price continues recent decline

Q3 earnings reports stronger, supporting Wall Street and keeping risk appetites healthy; Swiss voting on gold holdings

Q3 earnings reports stronger, supporting Wall Street and keeping risk appetites healthy; Swiss voting on gold holdings

NZ yields take their cue from post-US payrolls rally in US Treasuries; US holiday restrains markets

NZ yields take their cue from post-US payrolls rally in US Treasuries; US holiday restrains markets

Currency markets punish the USD on jobs report, thinking Fed will push back hike plans. But reaction 'difficult to justify'

Currency markets punish the USD on jobs report, thinking Fed will push back hike plans. But reaction 'difficult to justify'

Low US wage pressure has bond market reassessing likely Fed response; NZ swap rates likely to flatten this week

Low US wage pressure has bond market reassessing likely Fed response; NZ swap rates likely to flatten this week

ECB President Draghi to expand Bank’s balance sheet by €1tln; Aussie unemployment flat at 6.2%; being long USD against the world appears to be overwhelming strategy

ECB President Draghi to expand Bank’s balance sheet by €1tln; Aussie unemployment flat at 6.2%; being long USD against the world appears to be overwhelming strategy

NZGB tenders will be lower for the rest of the year, bond yields drift higher, all eyes now on US non-farm payrolls

NZGB tenders will be lower for the rest of the year, bond yields drift higher, all eyes now on US non-farm payrolls

USD rallies strongly on Republican victory in US mid-term elections; AUD hit hard by falling metals and iron ore prices; NZD follows AUD lower

USD rallies strongly on Republican victory in US mid-term elections; AUD hit hard by falling metals and iron ore prices; NZD follows AUD lower

NZ labour data without signs of wage pressures to suggest any urgent response from the RBNZ, focus shifts to Aussie jobs report

NZ labour data without signs of wage pressures to suggest any urgent response from the RBNZ, focus shifts to Aussie jobs report

Saudi Arabia cuts price for oil exported to US; WTI benchmark price down 2.4%; NZDUSD steadies after Fonterra auction; data bonanza in Australia sees violent price action in the AUD

Saudi Arabia cuts price for oil exported to US; WTI benchmark price down 2.4%; NZDUSD steadies after Fonterra auction; data bonanza in Australia sees violent price action in the AUD

RBA's pause expected to last all of 2015; NZ yields see little action; UST 10yr rise to 2.32%

RBA's pause expected to last all of 2015; NZ yields see little action; UST 10yr rise to 2.32%

With the RBNZ’s previously-hawkish bias now gone, support for the NZD is softening

With the RBNZ’s previously-hawkish bias now gone, support for the NZD is softening

Local interest rate market flattens ahead of major moves with some US asset reallocation out of fixed income; UST 10yr rise to 2.34%

Local interest rate market flattens ahead of major moves with some US asset reallocation out of fixed income; UST 10yr rise to 2.34%

US Q3 GDP comes in healthier than anticipated; German inflation numbers soft; next leg higher in the USD may come from release of Japanese data

US Q3 GDP comes in healthier than anticipated; German inflation numbers soft; next leg higher in the USD may come from release of Japanese data

BNZ pushes out its expectations of when the next RBNZ rate hike will happen, and lowers the expected peak

BNZ pushes out its expectations of when the next RBNZ rate hike will happen, and lowers the expected peak