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bnzeconomists

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US 10-year bond yields spiked higher as non-farm payrolls came in well above analyst expectations
US 10-year bond yields spiked higher as non-farm payrolls came in well above analyst expectations
Substantial US payroll numbers for October is probably above the FOMC threshold of ‘sustainable improvement’ in labour market conditions
Substantial US payroll numbers for October is probably above the FOMC threshold of ‘sustainable improvement’ in labour market conditions
German benchmark yields fall as ECB cuts their key refinancing rate by 25 bps; peripheral European yields fell sharply
German benchmark yields fall as ECB cuts their key refinancing rate by 25 bps; peripheral European yields fell sharply
In a bid to stimulate the flagging eurozone economy the ECB cut their main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%
In a bid to stimulate the flagging eurozone economy the ECB cut their main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%
Falling unemployment numbers released yesterday sees swap and bond yields rise across the curve
Falling unemployment numbers released yesterday sees swap and bond yields rise across the curve
Stronger labour and employment numbers gives Kiwi dollar some upward momentum
Stronger labour and employment numbers gives Kiwi dollar some upward momentum
RBA's assessment of the outlook for the economy has become more positive with rising house prices likely to encourage investment
RBA's assessment of the outlook for the economy has become more positive with rising house prices likely to encourage investment
RBA left rates unchanged at 2.5% but stated the A$ was “uncomfortably high” which had the market reassessing views of rate hikes in late 2014
RBA left rates unchanged at 2.5% but stated the A$ was “uncomfortably high” which had the market reassessing views of rate hikes in late 2014
NZ bond and swap yields followed offshore markets higher spurred on by stronger US data from late last week
NZ bond and swap yields followed offshore markets higher spurred on by stronger US data from late last week
Increasing commodity prices supports view that terms of trade will hit 40 year high in Q4
Increasing commodity prices supports view that terms of trade will hit 40 year high in Q4
Release of US ISM survey sees US 10-year bond yields climb above 2.6% and back to their highest level since mid-October
Release of US ISM survey sees US 10-year bond yields climb above 2.6% and back to their highest level since mid-October
Euro area inflation is weak however broader activity indicators remain on an improving trend
Euro area inflation is weak however broader activity indicators remain on an improving trend
Combination of US FOMC announcement and Australian 10-year swaps moving higher contributed to steepening of NZ yield curve
Combination of US FOMC announcement and Australian 10-year swaps moving higher contributed to steepening of NZ yield curve
Ongoing NZ$ strength sees BNZ's formally changing their view on next OCR hike from March to June 2014
Ongoing NZ$ strength sees BNZ's formally changing their view on next OCR hike from March to June 2014
Slowing US housing market and fiscal policy constraints mean no tapering yet for Fed
Slowing US housing market and fiscal policy constraints mean no tapering yet for Fed
Broad US$ buying sees NZ$/US$ trade below 82c; hawkish RBNZ statement may reverse trend
Broad US$ buying sees NZ$/US$ trade below 82c; hawkish RBNZ statement may reverse trend
Fall in NZ yields driven by expectations Fed tapering will be pushed back into 2014 and the recent implementation of LVR restrictions
Fall in NZ yields driven by expectations Fed tapering will be pushed back into 2014 and the recent implementation of LVR restrictions
Speculation mounting that RBA could launch a full blown intervention as Stevens states A$ is likely to be "materially lower"
Speculation mounting that RBA could launch a full blown intervention as Stevens states A$ is likely to be "materially lower"
NZ 2-year and 10-year swap yields down more than 20bps and 30bps respectively from recent highs
NZ 2-year and 10-year swap yields down more than 20bps and 30bps respectively from recent highs
Aggregate positive US Q3 earnings surprise sits at 4.9% and continues to underpin US$
Aggregate positive US Q3 earnings surprise sits at 4.9% and continues to underpin US$
As the RBNZ hikes rates next year the swap curve should flatten further with most of the action being in the short end
As the RBNZ hikes rates next year the swap curve should flatten further with most of the action being in the short end
Poor economic data and tensions in China worry markets vs positive US earning reports and central bank stimulus
Poor economic data and tensions in China worry markets vs positive US earning reports and central bank stimulus
NZ-AU 2-year swap spreads narrowed to 60bps, however if RBNZ hikes OCR as expected this could blow out to 120 bps
NZ-AU 2-year swap spreads narrowed to 60bps, however if RBNZ hikes OCR as expected this could blow out to 120 bps
Antipodean currencies hit as China's money market rate jumps markedly higher
Antipodean currencies hit as China's money market rate jumps markedly higher
US 10-year treasury bonds gapped lower in direct response to rotten non-farm payrolls data
US 10-year treasury bonds gapped lower in direct response to rotten non-farm payrolls data