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Markets now price in a full 125bps set of rate hikes in 2014; BNZ sees 'risks tilted toward more'
Markets now price in a full 125bps set of rate hikes in 2014; BNZ sees 'risks tilted toward more'
UK and German economic data released last night points to recovery and signs of growth
UK and German economic data released last night points to recovery and signs of growth
Wider spread bias risks liquidity driven squeeze at some point in coming months
Wider spread bias risks liquidity driven squeeze at some point in coming months
Impending FOMC decision has markets unsure, reluctant to take on more risk; high dairy incomes will boost incomes
Impending FOMC decision has markets unsure, reluctant to take on more risk; high dairy incomes will boost incomes
Lower 2014 DMO bond offerings and rising demand from global mandates signals very tight supply
Lower 2014 DMO bond offerings and rising demand from global mandates signals very tight supply
Over enthusiastic markets may have bid the NZD:AUD too high; RBA beats RBNZ in talking down its currency
Over enthusiastic markets may have bid the NZD:AUD too high; RBA beats RBNZ in talking down its currency
Chances of AU rate cuts rise; chances of NZ rate hikes rise; fiscal outlooks diverge
Chances of AU rate cuts rise; chances of NZ rate hikes rise; fiscal outlooks diverge
Good local data underpins the NZD; markets shorting the AUD, but not extreme; plenty of data releases over holiday period
Good local data underpins the NZD; markets shorting the AUD, but not extreme; plenty of data releases over holiday period
Good Govt accounts will mean lower NZGB issuance, with a long break until the next issue
Good Govt accounts will mean lower NZGB issuance, with a long break until the next issue
Markets absorb messages from MPS; see 'demise' of AUD, expecting NZ PMI and consumer confidence to be 'strong'
Markets absorb messages from MPS; see 'demise' of AUD, expecting NZ PMI and consumer confidence to be 'strong'
OCR hike in March fully priced in and market over-estimating probability of hike in January
OCR hike in March fully priced in and market over-estimating probability of hike in January
Fonterra announcement sees NZ$ sell-off and any attempts by the RBNZ to delay hiking the OCR in early 2014 could see further NZ$ softness
Fonterra announcement sees NZ$ sell-off and any attempts by the RBNZ to delay hiking the OCR in early 2014 could see further NZ$ softness
Expection is for strong demand for LGFA bonds; anticipation of increased offshore investor participation in 2014
Expection is for strong demand for LGFA bonds; anticipation of increased offshore investor participation in 2014
If the RBNZ statement pours cold water on the market’s OCR expectations the NZ$/US$ could pull-back
If the RBNZ statement pours cold water on the market’s OCR expectations the NZ$/US$ could pull-back
US budget deal nears, this time without a crisis; UK economy data expected to be strong and possibly push GBP:NZD lower
US budget deal nears, this time without a crisis; UK economy data expected to be strong and possibly push GBP:NZD lower
Swap curve steepens; markets pricing in January rate cut, BNZ says that's too soon
Swap curve steepens; markets pricing in January rate cut, BNZ says that's too soon
Kiwi currency gains from currency volatility of majors, especially the yen; BNZ worry market is getting ahead of itself
Kiwi currency gains from currency volatility of majors, especially the yen; BNZ worry market is getting ahead of itself
Markets expecting Fed to taper, RBNZ to raise OCR; strong data should result in strong signals on Thursday
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Markets expecting Fed to taper, RBNZ to raise OCR; strong data should result in strong signals on Thursday
BNZ believes current level of NZ$/A$ justified when looking at the trans-tasman fundamentals
BNZ believes current level of NZ$/A$ justified when looking at the trans-tasman fundamentals
2-10-year yield curve steepens further; BNZ see "fair value" for 2-year swaps at 3.70%
2-10-year yield curve steepens further; BNZ see "fair value" for 2-year swaps at 3.70%
Aussie Q3 GDP came in below expectations and the numbers show signs of soft domestic demand
Aussie Q3 GDP came in below expectations and the numbers show signs of soft domestic demand
2 and 5-year swaps are trading around recent highs; 5-year swap now seen as expensive from a hedging perspective
2 and 5-year swaps are trading around recent highs; 5-year swap now seen as expensive from a hedging perspective
Higher prices in Fonterra auction and ANZ Commodity Index components helping to strengthen NZ$ against majors
Higher prices in Fonterra auction and ANZ Commodity Index components helping to strengthen NZ$ against majors
Fears of adding support to the NZ$ is preventing the RBNZ from hiking the OCR before it needs to
Fears of adding support to the NZ$ is preventing the RBNZ from hiking the OCR before it needs to
The A$ is weaker overnght and will remain in the spotlight today ahead of the RBA meeting
The A$ is weaker overnght and will remain in the spotlight today ahead of the RBA meeting