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bnzeconomists

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16 years 5 months

Latest articles

Negative China PMI weighs on global markets; Chinese rating agency goes negative on NZ cutting growth prospects
Negative China PMI weighs on global markets; Chinese rating agency goes negative on NZ cutting growth prospects
Higher AU inflation may remove the chance of an RBA cut; Japan and Canada leave rates unchanged
Higher AU inflation may remove the chance of an RBA cut; Japan and Canada leave rates unchanged
Important to take NZ inflation risk seriously; more Fed tapering to come; IMF upgrades growth forecast
1
Important to take NZ inflation risk seriously; more Fed tapering to come; IMF upgrades growth forecast
No surprises expected from NZ CPI, GDT acution, PMIs or consumer confidence, but disappointments could cut NZD
No surprises expected from NZ CPI, GDT acution, PMIs or consumer confidence, but disappointments could cut NZD
NZD approaches post-float high vs AUD; US jobs data good, earnings data mixed especially for banks
NZD approaches post-float high vs AUD; US jobs data good, earnings data mixed especially for banks
Aussie data moves Kiwi rates, RBA rate cut closer; NZ-AU swap spreads widen
1
Aussie data moves Kiwi rates, RBA rate cut closer; NZ-AU swap spreads widen
NZD and comrades casualties of USD strength and World Bank makes upward revisions to global growth forecasts
NZD and comrades casualties of USD strength and World Bank makes upward revisions to global growth forecasts
Slight rise in swaps and bond yields; Aussies expect rate cuts by mid year as their labour market deteriorates
Slight rise in swaps and bond yields; Aussies expect rate cuts by mid year as their labour market deteriorates
NZD supported in international markets, AUD was not. Neither was the Yen. Commodities regain some after recent lows
NZD supported in international markets, AUD was not. Neither was the Yen. Commodities regain some after recent lows
More Kauris, QSBO all work to flatten the swap curve further, reinforcing experts estimates on when OCR will be hiked
More Kauris, QSBO all work to flatten the swap curve further, reinforcing experts estimates on when OCR will be hiked
QSBO will set the tone for today's direction; 'solid' international investor risk appetite
QSBO will set the tone for today's direction; 'solid' international investor risk appetite
Next moves await QSBO asssessments, eyes on capacity pressure; international yields drift lower
Next moves await QSBO asssessments, eyes on capacity pressure; international yields drift lower
Investor risk appetite rises, AUD and YEN to benefit; markets suspect US jobs data may be a 'rogue number'
Investor risk appetite rises, AUD and YEN to benefit; markets suspect US jobs data may be a 'rogue number'
US jobs report affects US and NZ bonds with yields falling; swaps fall too with help from Kauri issuance
US jobs report affects US and NZ bonds with yields falling; swaps fall too with help from Kauri issuance
'Explaining' by ECB chief on stimulus and deflation sees USD:EUR move sharply; eyes move back to US NFP data due out tonight
'Explaining' by ECB chief on stimulus and deflation sees USD:EUR move sharply; eyes move back to US NFP data due out tonight
ECB stimulation work not yet done, committed to accommodative monetary by 'all instruments allowed'
ECB stimulation work not yet done, committed to accommodative monetary by 'all instruments allowed'
USD gets a boost from good jobs report; eyes on US Fed minute release; ECB and BofE to review
2
USD gets a boost from good jobs report; eyes on US Fed minute release; ECB and BofE to review
As RBNZ review gets closer, expectations of an OCR rise in January diminish
1
As RBNZ review gets closer, expectations of an OCR rise in January diminish
Dairy prices hold at expected levels, some softening later in the year; next big NZD influencer will be US employment reports
Dairy prices hold at expected levels, some softening later in the year; next big NZD influencer will be US employment reports
Rate rise trends running out of steam; swaps and bond yields down, UST yields at bottom of recent range
2
Rate rise trends running out of steam; swaps and bond yields down, UST yields at bottom of recent range
Wider NZ-AU 2-year swap spreads on the way that will support the higher NZD/AUD
Wider NZ-AU 2-year swap spreads on the way that will support the higher NZD/AUD
UST 10yr bond yields failed to break above 3% after weaker than expected services data
1
UST 10yr bond yields failed to break above 3% after weaker than expected services data
Local economy strength, OCR hike threat, high commodity prices all see NZD holding higher levels than expected
2
Local economy strength, OCR hike threat, high commodity prices all see NZD holding higher levels than expected
Markets pricing in more than a 50% chance of an OCR hike at the end of this month
12
Markets pricing in more than a 50% chance of an OCR hike at the end of this month
Markets also understand the 'NZ story' and good local data now priced in to fx rates
Markets also understand the 'NZ story' and good local data now priced in to fx rates