Markets pricing in more than a 50% chance of an OCR hike at the end of this month

What about the Aussie influence. 2.5 & still talking cuts or flat. Is nz economy that much stronger?

Yes.

given how things are going I think its 50% or more....the Q is how long before it stops rising and drops back.

regards

Asking Bankers what they believe the direction the OCR should move is like asking two wolves and a lamb what they should have for lunch.

Why not have a period of sustained growth, why as soon as any predicted sign of growth is recognised on the horizon certain groups want to slow down New Zealands recovery.

Any rise in the OCR and the follow on of increased commercial overdraft rates and increased mortgage rates will send most recovering businesses and some home owners into a debt position that cant be sustained.

If theNew Zealand economy was a patient and had just started to recover and respond well to care doesnt mean you turn down the oxygen and limit medication.

Over Christmas had many stimulating discussions, one elderly or very senior gentleman who has had many more decades to ponder asked all at table, why not keep interest rates fixed for another year,let New Zealand get up out of the bed and actually Run without the people being hampered by high or even rising interest rates. What would be the consequience? seriously forum what would be the outcome of another gauranteed year of no change to OCR,,,sure banks would de-couple,but the resrve bank Governor could pull them back into line.

Previously the excuse of Housing Prices increasing has been utilised, many times a comparrison to Australia not having super rising house prices,,Thats because Australia does not have a supply issue, they build enough houses per annum to house both population increases and immigrants. New Zealand Does not currently build enough homes for domestic population growth without taking in to account that about a billion people would put there hand up worldwide to live in New Zealand in a heartbeat.

Until the powers at be stop throwing every excuse and every other option that doesnt involve building houses and stop kicking the can down the road with reports and enquiries and actually start encouraging developers to want to begin building mass affordable homes then house prices are going to keep climbing.

in the Productivity commission report it states that it costs 20% more to build a home in Auckland than in Melbourne. so there fore you obviously cant build affordable homes in Auckland because a key componet has increased in price,,LAND.

the Price of Land has increased because of the burden of costs applied by the regulatory process and also a big lump of GST .

Asking a developer who has just gone through 18 months of gauging by consultants and councils ,he wants to maximise his return so no real chance at affordable.

i say wait until growth and house construction numbers have reached population growth equilibrium then when as a country we can physically see real crystalised growth then apply some reins but for now dont touch the bridle.

Irrespective of what we all thing, if the Banks get a sniff of an opportunity to raise interest rates they will. All the economic indicators point to a significant rise in interst rates in the next couple of years. So if you havent fixed - do so and buckle in tight for the tumultuous ride of your life! Fortunately I am nearing the end of my mortgage term, and I pity those that have large mortgages going into the next decade, however as we know its all relative, and there will be no cheaper time to buy than now.