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bnzeconomists

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16 years 5 months

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Key NZD direction today will come from Aussie unemployment; ECB says its "very seriously considering" negative deposit rates
Key NZD direction today will come from Aussie unemployment; ECB says its "very seriously considering" negative deposit rates
NZDMO under-accepted buyback; steady mortgage demand; markets unconvinced on BofE view
NZDMO under-accepted buyback; steady mortgage demand; markets unconvinced on BofE view
Upbeat Fed and shrinking EM risk has markets more buoyant; Yen shunned; Aussie business confidence up
Upbeat Fed and shrinking EM risk has markets more buoyant; Yen shunned; Aussie business confidence up
The NZ buyback of Govt debt will keep yields low, make supply of Govt stock very tight
The NZ buyback of Govt debt will keep yields low, make supply of Govt stock very tight
BNZ says the next big move in the currency will ultimately be down. But not yet
BNZ says the next big move in the currency will ultimately be down. But not yet
Interest rate markets looking for direction; Yellen may announce policy adjustments
Interest rate markets looking for direction; Yellen may announce policy adjustments
NZD rises getting boosts from poor US payrolls report, better EM prospects, and improving AU confidence
NZD rises getting boosts from poor US payrolls report, better EM prospects, and improving AU confidence
NZ swaps saw-tooth their way to higher, closer now to 'fair value' in anticipation of March OCR rise
NZ swaps saw-tooth their way to higher, closer now to 'fair value' in anticipation of March OCR rise
Markets like the HLFS and labour cost data; ECB not worried about deflation; Aussie data says China growing
2
Markets like the HLFS and labour cost data; ECB not worried about deflation; Aussie data says China growing
Dairy auction +0.5% rise is a strong result in the face of recent risk-off sentiment; good employment data will support the NZD further
Dairy auction +0.5% rise is a strong result in the face of recent risk-off sentiment; good employment data will support the NZD further
Upward pressure on swap yields expected from positive NZ labour market reports
Upward pressure on swap yields expected from positive NZ labour market reports
Markets now more concerned about growth risks than less-loose Fed policy; BNZ sees a lot of negative sentiment priced into markets
Markets now more concerned about growth risks than less-loose Fed policy; BNZ sees a lot of negative sentiment priced into markets
Mortgage fixing demand limiting the fall in swap rates; downward pressure coming from offshore
1
Mortgage fixing demand limiting the fall in swap rates; downward pressure coming from offshore
NZD subject to international views on risk; the major currency weak-point is the NZD:AUD cross
NZD subject to international views on risk; the major currency weak-point is the NZD:AUD cross
BNZ economists expect a falling unemployment rate which may push up short-end yields
BNZ economists expect a falling unemployment rate which may push up short-end yields
Stronger USD and AUD push our cross rates lower; 'fair value' is a lot lower still
2
Stronger USD and AUD push our cross rates lower; 'fair value' is a lot lower still
BNZ economists see potential for one-off 50 basis points hike to OCR, as it's pushed up 1.25% by year's end
BNZ economists see potential for one-off 50 basis points hike to OCR, as it's pushed up 1.25% by year's end
Markets fully priced for RBNZ rate hikes, and Aussie rate cuts seem more distant now
Markets fully priced for RBNZ rate hikes, and Aussie rate cuts seem more distant now
Bond and swap yields rise ahead of major policy announcements
Bond and swap yields rise ahead of major policy announcements
A ‘no hike’ move this week could see a knee-jerk dip in the NZD/USD; USD jostled by data releases
3
A ‘no hike’ move this week could see a knee-jerk dip in the NZD/USD; USD jostled by data releases
Banks hedging interest from their mortgage book sees paying pressure and swaps rise
Banks hedging interest from their mortgage book sees paying pressure and swaps rise
BNZ sees a "greater risk the RBNZ will ultimately raise by more than the 200 bps"
2
BNZ sees a "greater risk the RBNZ will ultimately raise by more than the 200 bps"
Kiwi under pressure from AUD and GBP as it 'looks stretched relative to fundamentals'
3
Kiwi under pressure from AUD and GBP as it 'looks stretched relative to fundamentals'
Disappointing Chinese data sees global swap and bond yields trade lower
Disappointing Chinese data sees global swap and bond yields trade lower
Volatility index spikes to highest level since last October; risk sensitive currencies lose support
Volatility index spikes to highest level since last October; risk sensitive currencies lose support