Jason Wong | interest.co.nz

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

9 years 7 months

Latest articles

Terror attacks cause rush to safe havens

Risk index climbs in wake of terror attacks in Brussels; AUD bid up after RBA Govenor's speech; NZD/AUD approaching heavy technical support level of 88c

23rd Mar 16, 8:19am

by Jason Wong

Risk index climbs in wake of terror attacks in Brussels; AUD bid up after RBA Govenor's speech; NZD/AUD approaching heavy technical support level of 88c

NZ 2-year swap rate at historical low

Expectation of easier monetary policy sees NZ 2-year swap rate fall further; implied US break even inflation rate gets attention; upside bias to global bond yields

22nd Mar 16, 8:29am

by Jason Wong

Expectation of easier monetary policy sees NZ 2-year swap rate fall further; implied US break even inflation rate gets attention; upside bias to global bond yields

Brexit risks remain

GBP continues to be sold off; US existing home sales disappoint; USD continues post FOMC recovery; oil price tracks lower, NZD follows

22nd Mar 16, 8:21am

by Jason Wong

GBP continues to be sold off; US existing home sales disappoint; USD continues post FOMC recovery; oil price tracks lower, NZD follows

Fed's actions clearly not data-dependent

Traders re-think positions post FOMC meeting; US consumer confidence weaker, inflation expectations rise; 10-year NZ government bonds trade under 3%

21st Mar 16, 8:44am

by Jason Wong

Traders re-think positions post FOMC meeting; US consumer confidence weaker, inflation expectations rise; 10-year NZ government bonds trade under 3%

Investors stunned by Fed backdown

Mixed communication from Fed and other central banks confusing market; ECB could cut rates further to negate negative shocks; NZD/USD faces strong technical resistance at 69c level

21st Mar 16, 8:35am

by Jason Wong

Mixed communication from Fed and other central banks confusing market; ECB could cut rates further to negate negative shocks; NZD/USD faces strong technical resistance at 69c level

Markets see less Fed hikes than the Fed's indications

Local bond markets follow US rates lower, with a flatter curve. Recent RBNZ rate cut has had no impact on inflation, so "why wouldn't it" cut again, soon?

18th Mar 16, 8:18am

by Jason Wong

Local bond markets follow US rates lower, with a flatter curve. Recent RBNZ rate cut has had no impact on inflation, so "why wouldn't it" cut again, soon?

USD continues to free-fall post FOMC

The Fed is muddled and confused, fearful and timid says NAB's UK analyst; NZD rockets up to 0.6850; WTI crude hits $40 mark

18th Mar 16, 8:14am

by Jason Wong

The Fed is muddled and confused, fearful and timid says NAB's UK analyst; NZD rockets up to 0.6850; WTI crude hits $40 mark

Dovish Fed drives USD lower

Fed officials only project 2 Fed hikes this year, down from 4; commodity currencies race higher, NZD/USD up 1.6%; UK Budget downgrades economic forecasts

17th Mar 16, 8:14am

by Jason Wong

Fed officials only project 2 Fed hikes this year, down from 4; commodity currencies race higher, NZD/USD up 1.6%; UK Budget downgrades economic forecasts

"A more dovish Fed"

Fed indicates only two more rate hikes this year. The jump in the NZD raises chance of more OCR cuts. NZ bond yields follow US higher

17th Mar 16, 8:14am

by Jason Wong

Fed indicates only two more rate hikes this year. The jump in the NZD raises chance of more OCR cuts. NZ bond yields follow US higher

NZD top of 4-week trading range

Trader positioning driving NZD; US non-farm payroll data to determine direction of NZD in short-term; AUD continues strong run; GBP rallying from oversold territory

4th Mar 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Trader positioning driving NZD; US non-farm payroll data to determine direction of NZD in short-term; AUD continues strong run; GBP rallying from oversold territory

Markets place bets on upcoming policy decisions

Speculative positions anticipate deeper negative rates from the ECB and lower yields in the US. NZ rates curve steepened with rises at long end

4th Mar 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Speculative positions anticipate deeper negative rates from the ECB and lower yields in the US. NZ rates curve steepened with rises at long end

NZD left in wake of strong AU GDP

Australian Q4 growth handily beats market expectations, boosting AUD. Fair-value reassessments see NZD fall and it may fall further

3rd Mar 16, 7:53am

by Jason Wong

Australian Q4 growth handily beats market expectations, boosting AUD. Fair-value reassessments see NZD fall and it may fall further

Yields grind higher as traders re-think

UST yields and European rates both turn higher and credit spreads turn lower as markets react to more positive data. Local yields follow higher, easing OCR rate cut bets

3rd Mar 16, 7:39am

by Jason Wong

UST yields and European rates both turn higher and credit spreads turn lower as markets react to more positive data. Local yields follow higher, easing OCR rate cut bets

Spring back in investors step

Bottom in US manufacturing reached; risk back on the table as equities rise and Yen weakens; China PMI data continues to disappoint; RBA statement fails to move AUD

2nd Mar 16, 8:07am

by Jason Wong

Bottom in US manufacturing reached; risk back on the table as equities rise and Yen weakens; China PMI data continues to disappoint; RBA statement fails to move AUD

More NZ wholesale rate falls unlikely

UST yields jump on stronger than expected US factory data. Markets believe Fed will hike, despite Dudley review. NZ wholesale rates should get support today

2nd Mar 16, 7:48am

by Jason Wong

UST yields jump on stronger than expected US factory data. Markets believe Fed will hike, despite Dudley review. NZ wholesale rates should get support today

Wholesale rates keep falling

10-year German Bund futures contract broke through the 0.0% threshold into negative yield territory for the first time ever last night. Expectations lower elsewhere too

1st Mar 16, 8:15am

by Jason Wong

10-year German Bund futures contract broke through the 0.0% threshold into negative yield territory for the first time ever last night. Expectations lower elsewhere too

EUR weakens on softer inflation data

Eurozone CPI falls to fresh lows; EUR suffering spill-over effect from GBP weakness and expectations of additional ECB stimulus; expectations of further rate cuts by RBNZ fuelled by weaker data

1st Mar 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Eurozone CPI falls to fresh lows; EUR suffering spill-over effect from GBP weakness and expectations of additional ECB stimulus; expectations of further rate cuts by RBNZ fuelled by weaker data

'Sanity prevails'

The NZD tries to escape its tight range with a bid higher, but stop loss triggers put it back in the cage. Strong US data a backdrop to an impotent G20 meeting

29th Feb 16, 7:56am

by Jason Wong

The NZD tries to escape its tight range with a bid higher, but stop loss triggers put it back in the cage. Strong US data a backdrop to an impotent G20 meeting

Market turns toward Fed inflation views

US growth and inflation data sees markets accept higher change of Fed rate hikes. Local wholesale rates hit fresh lows

29th Feb 16, 7:43am

by Jason Wong

US growth and inflation data sees markets accept higher change of Fed rate hikes. Local wholesale rates hit fresh lows

More pressure to the downside

Record low interest rates and yields both locally and internationally. US energy debt defaults catch market attention

26th Feb 16, 8:08am

by Jason Wong

Record low interest rates and yields both locally and internationally. US energy debt defaults catch market attention

Selling pressure on GBP abates

GBP bounce could be temporary event; market ignores 6% drop in China's stockmarket; US durable goods orders data challenges view of slumping manufacturing sector due to strong USD

26th Feb 16, 8:07am

by Jason Wong

GBP bounce could be temporary event; market ignores 6% drop in China's stockmarket; US durable goods orders data challenges view of slumping manufacturing sector due to strong USD

The direction is down

Local swap rates fall and further falls are possible. Global moves add to downward pressures. Eyes on NZGB tender

25th Feb 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Local swap rates fall and further falls are possible. Global moves add to downward pressures. Eyes on NZGB tender

Oil price continues to drive market gyrations

Oil prices continue to decline, inefficient & uneconomic oil producers will have to get out; weak economic data contributing to risk-off tone; relentless selling of GBP

25th Feb 16, 8:00am

by Jason Wong

Oil prices continue to decline, inefficient & uneconomic oil producers will have to get out; weak economic data contributing to risk-off tone; relentless selling of GBP

Saudis won't cut oil production levels

Oil price down as hopes fade for coordinated policy effect on supply; GBP continues to be hit on Brexit concerns; NZD weakens to 200 day moving average as risk-off mood prevails

24th Feb 16, 8:28am

by Jason Wong

Oil price down as hopes fade for coordinated policy effect on supply; GBP continues to be hit on Brexit concerns; NZD weakens to 200 day moving average as risk-off mood prevails

Inflation expectations rule

Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'

24th Feb 16, 7:52am

by Jason Wong

Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'