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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

10 years 7 months

Latest articles

Inflation expectations rule
Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'
by Jason Wong
Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'
NZD moves above 200-day moving average
Next technical level for NZD/USD is 69c; GBP/USD plunged to a 7-year low; oil production freeze deal still alive; risk on environment as oil prices & equity markets rise strongly
by Jason Wong
1
Next technical level for NZD/USD is 69c; GBP/USD plunged to a 7-year low; oil production freeze deal still alive; risk on environment as oil prices & equity markets rise strongly
Bonds don't react to commodity action
Currencies and equities absorb all the commodity impacts but bond prices and yields hold in a tight range, globally and locally
by Jason Wong
Currencies and equities absorb all the commodity impacts but bond prices and yields hold in a tight range, globally and locally
Risk off
EU worries that negative interest rates undermine bank stability; US inflation up; Yen strong; UK split on June Brexit vote; commodity currencies weaker
by Jason Wong
EU worries that negative interest rates undermine bank stability; US inflation up; Yen strong; UK split on June Brexit vote; commodity currencies weaker
Diverging tracks
US inflation higher than expected; chances of Fed hike rise. NZ inflation expectations lower than expected; chances of OCR cut rise
by Jason Wong
1
US inflation higher than expected; chances of Fed hike rise. NZ inflation expectations lower than expected; chances of OCR cut rise
Next BoE rate move could be a hike
BoE Governor Carney says next move for rates were "more likely than not to rise"; market pricing in slim chance of RBNZ rate cut in March; investors attracted to NZ's higher long term rates
by Jason Wong
BoE Governor Carney says next move for rates were "more likely than not to rise"; market pricing in slim chance of RBNZ rate cut in March; investors attracted to NZ's higher long term rates
Weaker growth picture in US
Expectations of Fed rate hike ease on economic outlook; ECB & BoJ fail to talk down their currencies; USD weak across the board, NZD/USD over 67c
by Jason Wong
Expectations of Fed rate hike ease on economic outlook; ECB & BoJ fail to talk down their currencies; USD weak across the board, NZD/USD over 67c
FX markets in 'crazy session'
USD weaker as NY Fed chief notes tighter conditions. NZD gains on both jobless rate fall and Wheeler comments. Global equities weaker while commodities gain
by Jason Wong
USD weaker as NY Fed chief notes tighter conditions. NZD gains on both jobless rate fall and Wheeler comments. Global equities weaker while commodities gain
Markets push back OCR cut expectations
Wheeler's speech changes market perceptions, emphasises the flexibity he has, de-emphases the focus on the headline inflation rate
by Jason Wong
1
Wheeler's speech changes market perceptions, emphasises the flexibity he has, de-emphases the focus on the headline inflation rate
Oil-equities correlation reactivated
Oil majors thrashed with oversupply and softening demand; EU labour markets improve; NZD recovers quickly after less-than-expected GDT fall
by Jason Wong
Oil majors thrashed with oversupply and softening demand; EU labour markets improve; NZD recovers quickly after less-than-expected GDT fall
NZ Govt bond yields stand out
UST yields keep falling but still attractive to yield investors; NZGBs even more so. Prospects for further Fed rate hikes diminishing by the day
by Jason Wong
UST yields keep falling but still attractive to yield investors; NZGBs even more so. Prospects for further Fed rate hikes diminishing by the day
Only one US rate hike priced in
Risk off tone can't prevent US treasury yields from climbing; NZ swap rates moving to the beat of the offshore markets; 2-year swap rate 2.60%, 2s-10s spread remains in tight range
by Jason Wong
Risk off tone can't prevent US treasury yields from climbing; NZ swap rates moving to the beat of the offshore markets; 2-year swap rate 2.60%, 2s-10s spread remains in tight range
US data undershooting expectations
Citigroup's economic surprise index falls to 8-month low as US data fails to excite; Chinese PMI falls to lowest level since August 2012; portfolio flows rather than fundamentals sends NZD higher
by Jason Wong
Citigroup's economic surprise index falls to 8-month low as US data fails to excite; Chinese PMI falls to lowest level since August 2012; portfolio flows rather than fundamentals sends NZD higher
Commodities up, but NZD flat
Japan rate move causes odd currency reactions. Low US growth data hid some positive consumer drivers at work. Markets liked both events. Stocks and oil rose
by Jason Wong
Japan rate move causes odd currency reactions. Low US growth data hid some positive consumer drivers at work. Markets liked both events. Stocks and oil rose
Japan changes the risk outlook
Shock adoption of negative rates in Japan sees bonds rally and yields tumble, but limits of monetary policy 'generosity' edge closer
by Jason Wong
Shock adoption of negative rates in Japan sees bonds rally and yields tumble, but limits of monetary policy 'generosity' edge closer
RBNZ likely to be happy with market reaction
'Well-crafted' RBNZ statement sets the right tone, conveying a level of uncertainty that markets absorbed with respect
by Jason Wong
'Well-crafted' RBNZ statement sets the right tone, conveying a level of uncertainty that markets absorbed with respect
Economic data flow weak
US durable goods orders and pending home sales were weak; Euro-area confidence indicators underwhelmed; dovish tone to part of RBNZ's statement; Fonterra forecast milk price slashed again
by Jason Wong
US durable goods orders and pending home sales were weak; Euro-area confidence indicators underwhelmed; dovish tone to part of RBNZ's statement; Fonterra forecast milk price slashed again
Oil rallies, stocks up
Commodity currencies gain but Fed and RBNZ will set tone and determine whether the rally can be sustained
by Jason Wong
Commodity currencies gain but Fed and RBNZ will set tone and determine whether the rally can be sustained
Traders expect to be disappointed
Rates on hold in a risk-off environment. Low corporate bond issuance. Central banks likely to sit tight
by Jason Wong
Rates on hold in a risk-off environment. Low corporate bond issuance. Central banks likely to sit tight
Markets rally, ignore China
Strong rebound in oil prices on producer cooperation talk and uptick in US consumer confidence. Fitch changes NZ outlook to 'stable'
by Jason Wong
2
Strong rebound in oil prices on producer cooperation talk and uptick in US consumer confidence. Fitch changes NZ outlook to 'stable'
Local positive dataflow continues
NZ swap markets quiet ahead of OCR review where almost no-one expects any change. Expectations are the US Fed will try to calm fears
by Jason Wong
NZ swap markets quiet ahead of OCR review where almost no-one expects any change. Expectations are the US Fed will try to calm fears