Stuart Ritson

After recovering from a dip on tariff concerns, the S&P500 closed at a record high. US core PCE deflator benign but above expectations. Real consumption soft. OPEC+ is considering a further increase in supply

After recovering from a dip on tariff concerns, the S&P500 closed at a record high. US core PCE deflator benign but above expectations. Real consumption soft. OPEC+ is considering a further increase in supply

Middle East ceasefire supports risk sensitive assets. Oil prices plunge. Fed Chair Powell reiterates FOMC messaging. US treasuries rally on weak confidence data and lower oil prices

Middle East ceasefire supports risk sensitive assets. Oil prices plunge. Fed Chair Powell reiterates FOMC messaging. US treasuries rally on weak confidence data and lower oil prices

Further escalation in Middle East conflict to weigh on investor risk appetite and underpin oil prices. Fed Governor Waller said the central bank could cut rates as soon as July highlighting the split amongst the FOMC

Further escalation in Middle East conflict to weigh on investor risk appetite and underpin oil prices. Fed Governor Waller said the central bank could cut rates as soon as July highlighting the split amongst the FOMC

US Federal Reserve leaves rates on hold as expected. FOMC median forecast still shows 50bp of rate cuts this year. Limited market reaction. Treasury yields remain modestly lower and currency markets stable

US Federal Reserve leaves rates on hold as expected. FOMC median forecast still shows 50bp of rate cuts this year. Limited market reaction. Treasury yields remain modestly lower and currency markets stable

Rise in investor risk aversion amid a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. Oil prices surge. Brent crude futures close near US$75 per barrel. Global equities declined. US treasuries reversed an earlier rally and closed higher in yield

Rise in investor risk aversion amid a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. Oil prices surge. Brent crude futures close near US$75 per barrel. Global equities declined. US treasuries reversed an earlier rally and closed higher in yield

Benign US inflation data and a solid 30-year auction supported a rally in US treasuries. The US dollar remained under pressure with the dollar index falling below the April low

Benign US inflation data and a solid 30-year auction supported a rally in US treasuries. The US dollar remained under pressure with the dollar index falling below the April low

US labour market data shows resilience despite the elevated policy uncertainty. Treasury yields sharply higher as Fed easing expectations are trimmed. Further signs of an easing in US-China trade tensions supports risk sentiment

US labour market data shows resilience despite the elevated policy uncertainty. Treasury yields sharply higher as Fed easing expectations are trimmed. Further signs of an easing in US-China trade tensions supports risk sentiment

Weaker than expected data supports rally in US treasuries. US Services ISM contracts. Equity markets less impacted with the S&P500 modestly higher and global stocks reaching a record high

Weaker than expected data supports rally in US treasuries. US Services ISM contracts. Equity markets less impacted with the S&P500 modestly higher and global stocks reaching a record high

US manufacturing ISM softer than expected reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop. Crude oil prices climbed more than 2% despite news that OPEC+ had agreed to increase oil output

US manufacturing ISM softer than expected reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop. Crude oil prices climbed more than 2% despite news that OPEC+ had agreed to increase oil output

Further macro uncertainty after a US court invalidated Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs. An initial S&P500 rally following the decision faded. Soft US economic data brought lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar

Further macro uncertainty after a US court invalidated Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs. An initial S&P500 rally following the decision faded. Soft US economic data brought lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar

Trump threatened aggressive tariffs on the EU contributing to volatility in risk sensitive assets. S&P500 partially recovers from initial losses. Euro Stoxx down close to 2% and German bunds rally. US dollar broadly weaker

Trump threatened aggressive tariffs on the EU contributing to volatility in risk sensitive assets. S&P500 partially recovers from initial losses. Euro Stoxx down close to 2% and German bunds rally. US dollar broadly weaker

US PMIs resilient despite economic uncertainty. Euro-area PMIs soft. US dollar makes broad based gains. Modest increase in the NZGB borrowing programme forecast at the Budget

US PMIs resilient despite economic uncertainty. Euro-area PMIs soft. US dollar makes broad based gains. Modest increase in the NZGB borrowing programme forecast at the Budget

Growing fiscal concerns and a weak UST 20-auction contributed to a large rise in long end treasury yields. Surge in yields weigh on US equities. UK CPI higher than expected. GBP/USD reached a 3-year high with less BOE easing priced

Growing fiscal concerns and a weak UST 20-auction contributed to a large rise in long end treasury yields. Surge in yields weigh on US equities. UK CPI higher than expected. GBP/USD reached a 3-year high with less BOE easing priced

The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.85% as expected and moved to a more dovish stance. The market priced additional easing and NZD/AUD gained. A weak government bond auction contributed to a surge in long end JGB yields

The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.85% as expected and moved to a more dovish stance. The market priced additional easing and NZD/AUD gained. A weak government bond auction contributed to a surge in long end JGB yields

Initial weak risk sentiment linked to the US credit rating downgrade reverses. US 30-year yields reached 5.04%, the highest level since late 2023, before retracing. US dollar broadly weaker

Initial weak risk sentiment linked to the US credit rating downgrade reverses. US 30-year yields reached 5.04%, the highest level since late 2023, before retracing. US dollar broadly weaker

US asset markets look ahead to trade talks between the US and China. US claims ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations. Chinese exports were surprisingly strong in April. Currency markets subdued overall

US asset markets look ahead to trade talks between the US and China. US claims ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations. Chinese exports were surprisingly strong in April. Currency markets subdued overall

US Fed held rates steady and indicated the risk of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. More signs of a de-escalation in the trade war. China announced range of measures of economic support

US Fed held rates steady and indicated the risk of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. More signs of a de-escalation in the trade war. China announced range of measures of economic support

Signs of potential de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China plus resilient US labour market data boosts equity markets

Signs of potential de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China plus resilient US labour market data boosts equity markets

US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge

US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge

Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction

Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction

US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise

US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise

Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high

Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high

Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility

Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility

Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot

Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot

US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March

US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March