The following report provides a pulse-check of economic conditions in Argentina. The original is here.
Building on “The Argentine Economy – A Snapshot” [access the report here], we provide an update on progress and challenges in Argentina over the past year under the economic reforms implemented by President Milei.
Major Political and Policy Developments
IMF Programme and Key Reviews (July 2025 & April 2026)
Argentina’s 2025 - 26 macroeconomic stabilisation was anchored by a US$20 billion, 48 month IMF Extended Fund Facility agreed in April 2025, centred on fiscal surpluses, tight monetary policy and exchange rate liberalisation. The first IMF review in July 2025 unlocked US$2 billion, recognising strong early implementation of reforms despite reserve shortfalls. A second staff level agreement with the IMF in April 2026 cleared the way for a further US$1 billion disbursement following congressional approval of Argentina’s 2026 budget and improved foreign reserves.
La Libertad Avanza and Milei strengthen their position following the mid-term elections (October 2025)
In October 2025, Argentina held pivotal legislative mid term elections and President Milei’s coalition, La Libertad Avanza, significantly increased its representation in Congress. This result strengthened the parliamentary position of the governing coalition, facilitating continued policy prioritisation of deregulation, fiscal management, and integration into international credit markets. Improved market sentiment allowed both corporates and provinces to re-enter international debt markets, raising over US$14 billion, particularly in the energy sector. The Presidential election in mid-2027 may introduce some market uncertainty with a pre-election period of increased volatility, including pressure on the exchange rate and softer economic activity as investment decisions are postponed until the political outlook becomes clearer.
Trade Policy Liberalisation: EU-Mercosur, EFTA-Mercosur, Argentina-USTR, OECD accession
In 2025 and early 2026, Argentina has pursued a trade liberalisation strategy, both with its Mercosur partners and bilaterally. A significant step was the signature of the EU–Mercosur Association Agreement in January 2026. Argentina was the first Mercosur member to achieve domestic ratification the following month, positioning the deal as a cornerstone of long term market access and reform lock in. In parallel, Mercosur concluded a Free Trade Agreement with EFTA (European Free Trade Association) in September 2025, expanding access to European markets and reinforcing the bloc’s renewed outward orientation.
In February 2026, Argentina signed the Argentina–United States Reciprocal Trade and Investment Agreement (ARTI), reducing tariffs, easing non tariff barriers, and strengthening cooperation on digital trade, standards and critical minerals. Argentina’s OECD accession process and recent decision to seek membership of the CPTPP are clear commitments towards reducing trade distortions, aligning regulatory frameworks with international standards and deepening global economic integration.
Connectivity and Logistics
A new direct China Eastern flight connecting Shanghai, Auckland, and Buenos Aires was launched in December 2025, positioning New Zealand as a southern hub between Asia and South America. This is expected to stimulate not only tourism flows but also business travel and cargo efficiency across these continents. With outbound tourism from Argentina historically strong and facing limited long haul options, this new stopover route offers a competitive alternative for reaching Asia. China Eastern Airlines has now announced an increase from two to four weekly flights from December 2026, reflecting growing demand.
Macroeconomic Context
Fiscal consolidation has centred on achieving a zero primary deficit, reducing subsidies, and limiting public spending growth. In late 2025, the Argentine Congress approved the 2026 budget, projecting annual inflation of 10.1%, GDP growth of 5%, and a fiscal balance. While inflation will be higher (it has already reached 11.4% in the first four months of 2026), and GDP growth less (with current estimates at 3-4%), the economy is significantly more stable and growth is back, driven by a strong agriculture and energy exports (demonstrated by a record USD 8.9 billion worth of exports for the month of April).
A welcome recent development is the 21 May announcement of a phased reduction in export taxes which will provide increased predictability for key sectors of interest to New Zealand business and encourage further investment and growth. While there has also been some progress on labour reform it is politically difficult and slow going, and the necessary overhaul of the tax system
Inflation
Under the Milei administration inflation has declined sharply, from 211.4% in 2023 to 31.5% in 2025. This has been achieved through tighter monetary and fiscal policies and a sustained reduction in energy subsidies. While this downward trajectory has recently stalled at around 3% per month, driven by sensitivities related to exchange rate policy as well as higher transport and utility costs from the Middle East conflict, the overall trend remains positive.
Poverty, unemployment and income indicators
Poverty has fallen significantly from its 2024 peak of more than 50% to 28.8%, supported by stabilisation and improved real incomes in 2025, though gains are uneven. Wage growth has recently begun to lag inflation again, reflecting emerging pressures on household purchasing power which are also reflected in growing consumer debt.
Exchange Rate Dynamics
The Argentine peso exchange rate has been managed towards greater stability, supporting import planning. In April 2025, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) introduced a managed float within an exchange-rate band (initially ARS 1,000–1,400 per USD), lifting most currency controls and allowing freer trade settlement. These measures, in addition to the stability of the exchange rate since the mid-term elections, have reduced volatility and improved predictability for foreign trade operations. While full pre-payment of imports is not yet possible capital goods imports now benefit from more flexible arrangements, allowing 30% pre-payment, a further 50% upon clearance at the port of origin and the remaining 20% upon registration of the customs entry.
As Argentina seeks to accumulate greater foreign reserves and build credibility, exchange rate policy will remain closely watched by external creditors, foreign trade operators, and financial markets as an indicator of continuity of the broader economic reforms and political stability.
Developments and Opportunities in Key Sectors
Agriculture and Agribusiness
The country’s agriculture sector commenced 2026 with one of the strongest outlooks seen in recent years, supported by rising commodity prices and favourable weather conditions. The 2025/26 wheat harvest has already broken national records, with production estimates reaching 27.7–27.8 million tonnes, up nearly 50% from the previous season. Soybeans one of Argentina’s main export crops together with its derived products are also performing strongly, with 2026 forecasts of 48-49 million tonnes, in line with recent historical averages.
The sector could further benefit from macroeconomic stabilisation and ongoing deregulation efforts aimed at reducing trade and production costs. Small and medium-sized farmers are expected to gradually regain purchasing power and financing. There is strong demand for agricultural financing, with producers rapidly taking up recent credit lines offered by the National Bank, both in pesos (at about 12% rates) and US dollars (including 0% financing) with nearly USD 12 billion in applications submitted during the recent Agroactiva trade show. This creates opportunities to sell agritech solutions including precision farming technology, smart livestock farming systems, management tools, innovative farm equipment, and logistics improvement solutions, where New Zealand firms excel and have a strong reputation.
Natural Resources: Energy and Mining
Energy and mining are central to Argentina’s economic growth. The country combines strong renewable energy potential with significant oil, gas, and lithium reserves, including Vaca Muerta (the second largest shale gas field and fourth largest shale oil field in the world) and the Lithium Triangle (with Argentina being the second or third largest lithium resource holder globally depending on the methodology used).
Recognising the strategic importance of these industries, the government introduced the Large Investment Incentives Regime (RIGI) in July 2024 to attract long-term projects above US$200 million. This regime offers 30 years of preferential tax, trade and foreign-exchange benefits. As of April 2026, 14 projects totalling more than US$28 billion had been approved (and 22 other projects are being reviewed) across oil, gas, lithium, and wind and solar investments.
Most recently, the government announced the Medium Investment Incentives Regime (RIMI), designed to incentivise purchase of capital goods by Argentine SMEs through accelerated depreciation of income tax and VAT recovery over a 2-year window. It also provides additional advantages for irrigation systems, livestock genetics and energy efficiency projects. While RIMI is not yet operational, it will be of particular interest for New Zealand businesses as it specifically targets farming systems and equipment, high energy efficiency assets, anti-hail nets for the agriculture sector, and eligible livestock.
Digital Economy and Services
Argentina’s digital economy continues to show strong momentum, supported by widespread connectivity and a dynamic tech ecosystem. E-commerce continues to expand at exceptional speed, with more than half a million new e-commerce platform users in 2024 according to the Argentine E-commerce Chamber. The growing availability of data, widespread broadband adoption and an increasingly tech-skilled workforce provide favourable conditions for artificial intelligence applications in areas such as customer analytics, agritech, fintech and digital public services, providing the potential for partnerships, software exports, and innovation exchange.
Conclusion
Argentina’s economic outlook is increasingly robust with significantly reduced inflation, a continuing trade surplus, and poverty and unemployment rates trending down. Broad and deep economic reforms including rapid deregulation have laid the groundwork for renewed market confidence and economic growth and Argentina’s determination to advance global economic integration through FTA and OECD accessions indicate a more sustained commitment to open trade than in the past.
While the outlook is positive and progress towards macroeconomic stability has been impressive there is still some way to go on the reform journey. Difficult but necessary tax and labour reforms are still to be implemented and further progress on exchange-rate policy and building of foreign reserves needed. Inflation and poverty rates, while improved, remain high by global standards, so continued reduction will be important to track. The sustainability of the economic turnaround also remains uncertain, with much depending on the result of next year’s Presidential election.
Despite the ongoing challenges, for New Zealand businesses, especially exporters focused on agriculture, energy and mining, and digital services, Argentina offers more opportunities than it has in decades and is worth some attention.
8 Comments
Is Argentina importing Rogernomics? I read distnct similarities NZ in the 1980s.
"....a pulse-check of economic conditions in the ?Western United States? at a complex juncture.
Furthermore, I regard this article a very unbalanced cheerlead of what is effectively the Monroe Doctrine Phase II, AKA known as the "Donroe Doctrine".
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MY MULTITUDE OF CONCERNS...
#1 The IMF Trap and the Donroe Doctrine Working in Tandem
Argentina is stuck in a cycle of borrowing new money just to pay off old IMF debts. For example, the current EFF program utilizes freshly disbursed tranches specifically to roll over massive debts stemming from the previous 2018 bailout.
This structure ensures that incoming capital immediately flows right back to Washington, leaving zero surplus for real public infrastructure or small business credit to stimulate native economic growth.
#2 The Conditional US?Trump Lifeline
In September and October 2025, as Argentina faced a brutal currency crisis that threatened to spark a new wave of hyperinflation, the Trump administration bypassed standard multilateral channels.
Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent (a notorius George Soros Spinmeister/disciple), authorized a US$20 billion currency swapline using the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund. This was combined with direct purchases of Argentine government bonds to artificially prop up the volatile peso.
Trump then dangled an additional US$20 billion package tied to private banking consortia and sovereign wealth funds, bringing the total promised rescue to US$40 billion.
#3 The Shielding of foreign capital with the burden placed on the working classes.
Historically, IMF programs in Argentina have avoided mandatory upfront debt restructuring for private international banks. By prioritizing full repayments to private bondholders, the IMF effectively shields foreign capital while placing the entire economic adjustment burden on the Argentine working class via tariff hikes and reduced public services.
#4 Give up control of domestic policy to overseas interests - Wall Street in particular.
To ensure continued loan disbursements, Argentina must yield control over its domestic policy framework. The state's economic path is tied entirely to a desperate need for US dollars to meet international reserve targets. This structural dependency forces the government to rely heavily on speculative short-term repo markets and local dollar bonds, potentially leaving the country with no economic levers left to pull for a native, long-term industrial recovery.
#5 Deliberate debt entrapment.
To me the IMF involvement absolutely reeks of the Western model of imperial debt entrapment, where developing struggling nations seeking emergency bailouts are locked into cycles of continuous borrowing and strict policy conditions. When countries face balance-of-payments crises, the IMF steps in as a lender of last resort.
Argentina is currently the largest debtor to the IMF, holding roughly 30% of the Fund's entire outstanding credit. Under its current US$20 billion, 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), the country faces severe risks of debt entrapment.
#6 Overtly close ties with the genocidal Israeli/US war machine model.
There is not so much of a mention in this article that Argentina's Netanyahu/Trump worshiping President Milei has advanced a very sinister massive privatisation agenda that reeks of being straight out of the pages of the book "Diaries of An Economic Hitman".
This includes sales in energy transmission, exploration, and production, including the full privatisation of the state-owned energy cpmpany Energia Argentina S.A.(ENARSA).
Also, the state-owned industrial manufacturer IMPSA, which holds significant energy sector interests, was privatised and sold to the US-based Industrial Acquisition Fund.
Intercargo, which operates ground services and aircraft handling at 16 airports, has been put out to public tender for privatization. State carrier Aerolíneas Argentinas has also been marked for privatization following recent congressional approval.
The bidding process is well underway to sell off the state's 90% shareholding in Agua y Saneamientos Argentinos (AySA), the country's largest public water and sanitation utility.
The government has advanced plans for the sale and concessioning of multiple state-controlled hydroelectric dams (providing roughly 10% of the country's energy), including Comahue region facilities.
The privatization or long-term concessioning of freight and passenger rail networks (including Belgrano Cargas y Logística) and Corredores Viales (which manages highway networks) has been launched.
SUMMARY
The US actions in Argentina reek of a desperate attempt to concentrate their efforts on dominating 'their' Western hemisphere, as they are unceremoniously booted out of the ME, due to the monumentally chaotic debacle that the have created along with their their partner in Crime.
Watch out for an accelerating exodus of Israeli diaspora to Argentina, along with a procession of TIC (Techno Industrial Complex) ringleaders such as Peter Thiel, who is already relocating to Buenos Aires.
As I write this, the repulsive warmonger, Kissinger's, words ring in my ears...
“It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”
The tragedy that stands out for me, is that Argentina was handed a golden opportunity to become a incredibly wealthy and debt free nation when they were invited into BRICS. Under this model they could have retained their nations sovereignty and avoided the Wall Street/IMF debt slave trap.
History (should) remind us that Milei chose to squander this golden opportunity. Watch the Argentinian space. Arguably, the cheerleading tone of this article could pan out to be tragically premature.
Rogernomics on steroids then.
Yes, Lou that's certainly is one way to describe what is happening in Argentina.
At the time, Rogernomics was a radical liberal experiment in monetarism and market deregulation, although, personally, I don't think it was deliberately and directly designed to serve Wall Street.
I think it was more a case of inadvertently altering the NZ economy in ways that favoured the Western casino model (the FIC), and in doing so caused massive domestic damage in its wake.
In so many ways the policy of the 4th Labour Govt was the polar opposite to that of the first one formed in the 1930s, which was based around the PBS (Public Banking Solution) financial policy in order to help the productive economy, and society, recover from the ravages of the Great Depression, which in itself was a deliberate pump-and-dump wealth/asset heist, orchestrated by the FIC.
The irony is that although Rogernomics wore a red tie, when installed it really only succeeded in shifting power away from the working classes and towards global market forces and capital.
My description would be Argentina's situation is as you say, "Rogernomics on steroids", only with a much more overt sellout of the country's sovereignty to FIC interests. Both were sold as benefiting the working classes, I think we all should be able to see where this current sellout is headed.
Outstanding response to the original propaganda article.
Whatever happen to objective editorial control.
That is precisely the question that I am asking too, Professor.
The parroting of appalling one-sided propaganda like this, which is (sometimes unwittingly/sometimes deliberately) in direct support of these lunatic TIC actors, only serves to assist in herding us into a the self-imposed gulag - one that the Thiel's of this world have in mind for the 99.999965% who don't belong within their billionaire club.
THE THIEL CONNECTION - THE LIBERTARIAN FANTASY #5
Evie explains the sinister, more like flat-out terrifying background of the Thiel connection with Milei and Argentina, including Honduras, where politicians were desperately trying to kick-start economic growth by attracting capital investment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZsizKGLNpE&t=88s
...paraphrased... (brackets my words)...
At ~ 7:00 - "The system known as ZEDE, semi-autonomous zones that enjoyed powers far beyond those of a normal city, and where businesses could choose different legal frameworks where things could be handled privately, and regulations could be rewritten from the ground up - at least, that was the pitch.
One of its major financial backers was Pronomos Capital, a fund specifically created to support charter cities and governance experiment - its investors include... wait for it Peter Thiel - yes - and also many of the people who spent years dreaming about floating countries and alternative societies - so the same people who were investing in the floating country idea, were now investing in this Honduras idea.
The report was that Honduras was the future, but in reality it looked a little bit more like investors arriving in a foreign country and negotiating powers that ordinary citizens could never access. In a private city it can write its own rules and choose its own legal system, and operate on a totally different form of governance.
Who is really in charge? Is it the people, or is it Peter Thiel? Eventually Honduras decided it didn't like the answer, and in 2024 the country's Supreme Court declared that the system was unconstitutional (no shit Sherlock).
And so just as Seasteading was an attempt to build a new city at sea, and Honduras an attempt to build a libertarian experiment factory inside a country, Argentina offers something potentially far more attractive - a government that really wants to be that experiment!
And so what does Thiel specifically want in Argentina? Well Argentina is right now building the kind of architecture that makes wealthy outsiders very very interested. Milei's government is developing a Citizen By Investment Program, essentially a golden passport system for people who put enough money into the country.
It also created RIGI (a very apt acronym?) a major investment idea, designed to give large foreign investors long term tax, currency export/import, and regulatory protection. IOWs, while ordinary Argentinians are living through austerity, rising utility costs, and cuts to their public services, the government is saying to billionaires and corporations, bring your money here and we will protect you.
Notably, Thiel's company Palantir became deeply imbedded in US government functions, and critics in multiple countries have warned that dependence on Palantir creates problems of transparency, as well as accountability and surveillance, even national sovereignty.
The lesson from Honduras is obvious - somebody else, some one with money, gets the right to rule. Thiel doesn't need to come in and take over Argentina for this to matter, Argentina is his new plan-B country - a place where his money and his politics and ideology are not subject to accountability, but as a blueprint for national renewal.
In Argentina, Milei is trying to rewrite the rules of his country himself. Has Thiel finally found his libertarian fantasy? If you are Thiel, and have spent 20 years trying to build alternative societies, why build one yourself when Milei has already built one for you?
Argentina may represent the first time where these liertarian ideas have moved from the margins to the mainstream. These weird ideas are actually being tested by an actual government. responsible for ~45 million people.
Maybe Argentina becomes an economic miracle. Maybe it becomes another cautionary tale. Maybe Thiel gets his grubby little hands involved and makes it worse"... (and maybe I won't be crying for Argentina when this all goes horribly wrong).
AND RIGHT ON CUE WE HAVE THIS ARTICLE...
https://sovereignista.com/2026/07/03/the-right-wing-zionist-wave-sweepi…
...quoted...
"No figure looms larger in this transformation of Latin American politics than Argentine President Javier Milei. The libertarian economist who took office in December 2023 has positioned himself as Israel’s most devoted ally anywhere on earth.
I am sincerely proud to be the most Zionist president in the world,” Milei declared at Yeshiva University in March 2026. At the Western Wall in June 2025, he proclaimed that “My support for Israel comes from the heart, because I believe this is a just cause—the cause of the West. I will always stand by your side.”
Milei personally studies Torah with Rabbi Shimon Axel Wahnish from the Moroccan Jewish community in Argentina and has said he intends to convert to Judaism after leaving office. In June 2025, he became the first non-Jewish head of state to receive Israel’s Genesis Prize, known as the “Jewish Nobel,” awarded for his “unequivocal support” of Israel."
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"The latest boondoggles in Eurasia—from the Russo-Ukrainian war to the Iran war—have forced the Judeo-American project to seek softer targets. Latin America, with its fractured polities, corrupt elites, and vast resources, is the obvious prize. The so-called right-wing resurgence is not a recovery of national pride but rather a vassalage dressed in conservative robes.
Each new president who rushes to Tel Aviv is a tool, not a leader. Pace some naive nationalist minds in the West, Zionism is not nationalist in nature, but rather an expansionist movement with global ambitions. The illusion that it respects sovereignty must be shattered by serious political movements."
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