By Joseph Nye*
Perhaps the most important question raised by his victory is whether the long phase of globalisation that began at the end of World War II is essentially over.
Not necessarily.
Even if trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the TTIP fail and economic globalisation slows, technology is promoting ecological, political, and social globalisation in the form of climate change, transnational terrorism, and migration – whether Trump likes it or not. World order is more than just economics, and the United States remains central to it.
Americans frequently misunderstand our place in the world. We oscillate between triumphalism and declinism. After the Soviets launched Sputnik in 1957, we believed we were in decline. In the 1980s, we thought the Japanese were ten feet tall. In the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2008, many Americans mistakenly believed that China had become more powerful than the United States.
Despite Trump’s campaign rhetoric, the US is not in decline.
Because of immigration, it is the only major developed country that will not suffer a demographic decline by mid-century; its dependence on energy imports is diminishing rather than rising; it is at the forefront of the major technologies (bio, nano, information) that will shape this century; and its universities dominate the world league tables.
Many important issues will crowd Trump’s foreign policy agenda, but a few key issues will likely dominate – namely great power relations with China and Russia and the turmoil in the Middle East. A strong American military remains necessary but not sufficient to address all three. Maintaining the military balance in Europe and East Asia is an important source of American influence, but Trump is correct that trying to control the internal politics of nationalistic populations in the Middle East is a recipe for failure.
The Middle East is undergoing a complex set of revolutions stemming from artificial post-colonial boundaries; religious sectarian strife, and the delayed modernisation described in the United Nations’ Arab Human Development Reports. The resulting turmoil may last for decades, and it will continue to feed radical jihadist terrorism. Europe remained unstable for 25 years after the French Revolution, and military interventions by outside powers made things worse.
But, even with reduced energy imports from the Middle East, the US cannot turn its back on the region, given its interests in Israel, non-proliferation, and human rights, among others. The civil war in Syria is not only a humanitarian disaster; it is also destabilising the region and Europe as well. The US cannot ignore such events, but its policy should be one of containment, influencing outcomes by nudging and reinforcing our allies, rather than trying to assert direct military control, which would be both costly and counterproductive.
In contrast, the regional balance of power in Asia makes the US welcome there. The rise of China has fueled concern in India, Japan, Vietnam, and other countries. Managing China’s global rise is one of this century’s great foreign-policy challenges, and America’s bipartisan dual-track strategy of “integrate but insure” – under which the US invited China to join the liberal world order, while reaffirming its security treaty with Japan – remains the right approach.
Unlike a century ago, when a rising Germany (which had surpassed Britain by 1900) stoked fears that helped precipitate the disaster of 1914, China is not about to pass us in overall power. Even if China’s economy surpasses America’s in total size by 2030 or 2040, its per capita income (a better measure of an economy’s sophistication) will lag. Moreover, China will not equal US military “hard power” or its “soft power” of attraction. As Lee Kuan Yew once said, so long as the US remains open and attracts the talents of the world, China will “give you a run for your money,” but will not replace the US.
For these reasons, the US does not need a policy of containment of China. The only country that can contain China is China. As it presses its territorial conflicts with neighbors, China contains itself. The US needs to launch economic initiatives in Southeast Asia, reaffirm its alliances with Japan and Korea, and continue to improve relations with India.
Finally, there is Russia, a country in decline, but with a nuclear arsenal sufficient to destroy the US – and thus still a potential threat to America and others. Russia, almost entirely dependent on revenues from its energy resources, is a “one crop economy” with corrupt institutions and insurmountable demographic and health problems. President Vladimir Putin’s interventions in neighboring countries and the Middle East, and his cyber attacks on the US and others, though intended to make Russia look great again, merely worsen the country’s long-term prospects. In the short run, however, declining countries often take more risks and are thus more dangerous – witness the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1914.
This has created a policy dilemma. On the one hand, it is important to resist Putin’s game-changing challenge to the post-1945 liberal order’s prohibition on the use of force by states to seize territory from their neighbors. At the same time, Trump is correct to avoid the complete isolation of a country with which we have overlapping interests when it comes to nuclear security, non-proliferation, anti-terrorism, the Arctic, and regional issues like Iran and Afghanistan. Financial and energy sanctions are necessary for deterrence; but we also have genuine interests that are best advanced by dealing with Russia. No one would gain from a new Cold War.
The US is not in decline. The immediate foreign-policy task for Trump will be to adjust his rhetoric and reassure allies and others of America’s continuing role in the liberal world order.
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. is a professor at Harvard and author of Is the American Century Over? Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2016, published here with permission.
16 Comments
I would really love to see an American President tell Israel that their need to be changes and that if they don't thye can forget about any aid of any sort.
That doesn't make me anti semetic just makes me sick of the conflict and Israel always taking the high ground.
Good point, the Israelis were recently upset when it was suggested they buy American arms only with their annual multibillion dollar aid package.
If Trump wants Nato and South Korea and Japan to pay their way, it would be logical to expect Israel, which has already been given nukes by Uncle Sam, to do so.
Good luck with getting that past the Republican senate/Congress.
A sweeping Pacific trade pact meant to bind the U.S.and Asia effectively died Friday, as Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress told the White House they won’t advance it in the election’s aftermath, and Obama administration officials acknowledged it has no way forward now. Read more
Putin and Trump could overwhelm our economies and partnerships, especially if more populism takes off to disrupt the economies, political orders, peace and the long-suffering environment
As Lee Kuan Yew once said, so long as the US remains open and attracts the talents of the world, China will “give you a run for your money,” but will not replace the US.
I was quite intrigued by this so I did a bit of searching around on the interwebs. Scarfie once claimed that Profile and me were only of average intelligence however I hit back with the fact that by tapping into the interwebs we transform ourselves into super-brainiacs. Well, where is it recorded that Lee said this you might ask? Can we have a link? A few seconds of searching soon reveals that Nye himself is the only source of this quote......interesting. Then I find this article of Nye's containing the same quote, Where in the World Are We? but wait, the quote is slightly different:
As former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew once told me, so long as the United States remains open and attracts the talents of the world, China will “give the U.S. a run for its money,” but it will not replace us.
"Lee Kuan Yew once said" sounds like a proper quote while "Lee Kuan Yew once told me" is more anecdotal. It appears we only have Nye's word that it was ever said.
From the link I have given above I see this statement from Nye too:
Al Qaeda succeeded in luring the United States into Iraq in 2003. ISIS was born in the rubble of that invasion.
US intervention created ISIS. Largely the result of sacking and making unemployed the Republican Guard. What else can elite soldiers do? Quite a good cautionary lesson for not intervening in Syria which has an army that appears quite brave and resourceful.
I did not put a link in sorry. Zac......it was in the Daily Male...so may be just topical theory...to attract the intelligentsia. (Not me...surely, I prefer their other distractions)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3926512/Is-Putin-QUIT-Russian-p…
"President Vladimir Putin’s interventions in neighbouring countries and the Middle East, and his cyber attacks on the US and others, though intended to make Russia look great again, merely worsen the country’s long-term prospects." ...This is typical of the propaganda the USA has spouted since the downing of MH17. An incident that has only benefitted America , occurred at a time when the CIA chief was in Ukraine and has not been resolved because of the deliberate inclusion of the probable guilty party, Ukraine, and the exclusion of Russia from the subsequent investigation. Joseph S Nye thus reveals himself as a neocon apologist whose opinion is not worth the pixels it is written on. Trump hopefully will herald a reset of US - Russian relations and as a vassal state of the US NZ may be able to get on with the business of trade and improvement in the standard of living of the worlds citizens, If you recall it was Minister Grocer who was in Moscow negotiating a trade deal with Russia when Obama, Abbot and Cameron declared Russia had done it, before MN17 had even hit the ground , sending Grocer scurrying home. "Interventions in neighbouring countries." Crimea voted to rejoin Russia. Russia did not invade Iraq causing over 1 million deaths. It did not bomb the shit out of Libya causing the refugee crisis in Europe. It is legally protecting the Assad government in Syria unlike the NATO countries and the USA which are there illegally. Give me strength. How much longer are we going to have to put up with this neocon bullshit. Why do sites like this even give Joseph S Nye Junior I repeat Junior the time of day.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-deaths-survey-idUSL3048857920080…
http://thesaker.is/flight-mh17-what-youre-not-being-told/
There are two You can do your own googling. I am not going to waste my time trying to convince you as your comment shows you somehow believe Russian news sites are propaganda while western news tells the "truth".
Time will tell. It is fairly easy to discern propaganda from truth once one realises the BBC CNN Reuters etc. are strongly influenced by elements within their governments. eg. before the recent election they were full of propaganda about Trump maybe not accepting the result of the election. After the election there is no condemnation of Hillary's supporters not accepting the result
I agree with Apple tree. Nye is an outrageous Neocon and I am surprised such a person's views are given any space on this website. They have caused untold suffering pursuing their agenda which a kind and naive person would say is misguided and foolish while others suspect it is just downright sinister.
Come on Interest.co.nz these guys have been responsible for creating an ideology that resulted in the maiming and killing of hundreds of thousands of Middle Eastern people, the deaths of thousands of Western service men and women, the creation of ISIS and the plunging of Europe into a terror and migration crisis. Yet you worry more about the odd comment from a NZer who seeks to put Kiwis first?
Nye is on record as supporting the overthrow of Gaddafi and plunging Libya into civil war:
In any case, I have never supported Gaddafi and am on record wishing him gone, and also on record supporting Obama’s actions* in recent weeks. We now know that Gaddafi’s departure is the only change that will work in Libya. Link
* Obama's actions here are authorizing military force against Libya which included 14,000+ sorties against 3,000+ targets.
He is anti-Trump:
But good leaders help us define who we are. On that score, Trump has already failed.
And reckons Merkel is a good leader:
Good leaders today are often caught between their cosmopolitan inclinations and their more traditional obligations to the people who elect them — as German Chancellor Angela Merkel has discovered in the wake of her brave leadership on the refugee crisis last summer. Link
Donald Trump is to be taken seriously from now on...
But as it is Friday I shall have to pass this on, before that happens.
No animals or humans should be hurt in this particular example. Food for thought.
Just about sums it up.....the differences between Dem and Rep. Both half baked??.
Pre-election feed...from USA.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump go into a bakery.
As soon as they enter the bakery, Hillary steals three pastries and puts them in her pocket. She says to Donald, "See how clever I am? The owner didn't see anything and I don't even need to lie.” I will definitely win the election.
The Donald says to Hillary, "That's the typical dishonesty you have displayed throughout your entire life, trickery and deceit. I am going to show you an honest way to get the same result."
Donald goes to the owner of the bakery and says, "Give me a pastry and I will show you a magic trick." Intrigued, the owner accepts and gives him a pastry. Trump swallows it and asks for another one. The owner gives him another one. Then Donald asks for a third pastry and eats that, too.
The owner is starting to wonder where the magic trick is and asks, "What did you do with the pastries?" Trump replies, "Look in Hillary's pocket"
Trump that.
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