Crown accounts for November show revenue doing better than forecast in the half-year update

Core crown tax revenue for the five months ended November was 1.1% ahead of the half-year forecasts at $49.1 billion, according to Treasury’s monthly reporting. 

Interim Financial Statements for the five month period show the operating balance before gains and losses was a loss of $2.8 billion, compared to a forecast loss of $3.9 billion. 

This measure excludes a $3.3 billion increase in the value of ACC’s outstanding claims and Emission Trading Scheme liabilities, as well as a $2.3 billion increase in financial assets such as the New Zealand Superannuation Fund.

The tax take was boosted by stronger individual income and higher customs and excise duties. Non-tax revenue was also higher due to interest on deposits at the Reserve Bank.

Corporate tax was also 1.4% ahead of forecast. This category was weak during 2023, due to fewer taxable profits, and led to allegations of a ‘fiscal hole’.

While corporate tax revenue was ahead of forecast, it was lower than was received during the same period in 2022 — which may reflect the slowing economy. 

Goods and services tax revenue landed right on forecast, with $12.3 billion pulled in during the five month period. 

This also reflects the slowdown, as GST tax revenue was only up about $400 million compared to the same period last year, despite population growth and inflation. 

Net debt rose to $83.9 billion, more than 2% lower than forecast, again due to a strong performance from the NZ Super Fund. Gross debt was above forecast at $155.5 billion.