NZ’s jobless rate climbs to 4.8%

Economy / news

Unemployment rate climbs to its highest rate since December 2020 as businesses shed jobs and more people withdraw from the labour market

6th Nov 24, 10:53am by Dan Brunskill

Source: 123rf.com. Copyright: yuliaaatre

New Zealand’s jobless rate increased to 4.8% in the September 2024 quarter and other measures of the labour market also weakened as the economy contracted.

This headline rate was lower than the 5% forecast by the Reserve Bank, and many other economists, but up from 4.6% in the previous quarter and 3.2% in 2022.

Deb Brunning, a statistics manager at Statistics NZ, said the unemployment rate had been growing for the past two years and more people were not in the labour force.

Participation in the labour force declined 0.5 points to 71.2%, the lowest it has been since June 2022. The number of people not in the job market has increased 57,000 in the past year.

Brunning said the survey showed some of the largest reasons for this was because people engaged in leisure activities, studying or training, or becoming permanently unable to work.

Another reason for the annual increase may be related to would-be workers becoming discouraged about job prospects and looking for other options.

The underutilisation rate, which includes anyone wanting more work, has increased 1.2 points in the past year and was at 11.6% in September, despite a small fall in the quarter.

While the working age population has been growing, the number of people employed hasn’t budged in the past year. Pushing the employment rate to 67.8%, the lowest since June 2021.

“Compared with last September quarter, there were about a third more people reporting they had left their last job through redundancies, or business shutdowns,” Brunning said.

Not only are more Kiwis out of work, they are staying unemployed for longer. The number of people who have been without a job for over six months was up more than 50% annually.

Those without work for three to six months were up 42% while people spending shorter periods jobless were relatively steady, Stats NZ said.

There were 148,000 people out of work as of September, Statistics NZ said, up from 143,000 in June.

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60 Comments

by JimboJones | 6th Nov 24, 11:04am 1730844250

50% better than economists predicted (+0.2% not +0.4%). Time to celebrate? Or will Orr take this as a reason to stop cutting the OCR?

by TronMVP | 6th Nov 24, 11:12am 1730844744

4.8% on the jobseekers benefit is not the same as 4.8% unemployed. 57,000 more people are "not in the job market " since the beginning of the year.

by observer | 6th Nov 24, 12:00pm 1730847626

I'm not sure what you are saying here. The number on jobseekers benefit is not used to measure the unemployment rate. Not all people who are unemployed are entitled to a benefit, e.g. because they have a partner who is in work.

The unemployment rate is based on the % of people in the Household Labour Force Survey who say they are not in a job, but are available and actively seeking one.

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 24, 12:32pm 1730849571

This has been explained many times, probably every time the data is released, but there is always someone that reguritates the above nonsense. Ditto with the link between RV and Rates.

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Nov 24, 11:37am 1730846257

I for one expected the jobless rate would be reported at least beginning with a 5 by now. I've heard of many job losses and ongoing proposed restructures. It's obviously still heading higher, to what degree we shall soon see. This could mean the OCR might not be dropped as much and as quickly as some have forecasted.

This aside, as we know, the RBNZ are conducting stress tests around the very real risk of regional conflict and how it can easily cause our economic situation to become more dire with interest rates heading north. If this were to transpire then employment won't be the only thing that's tanking. Personally, I think it would be foolish not to factor these risks into our finances.

by boombust00 | 6th Nov 24, 11:41am 1730846484

Good. This overinflated property market needs to go back to reality. That's what is holding our country back from success. Hard reset is here to stay. God Bless

by GoWokeGobroke | 6th Nov 24, 12:59pm 1730851190

@boombust - Good that more people are unemployed? You do realize thats still a relatively low number of people unemployed compared to having jobs right? So unlikely to habe a huge impact on who buys houses & who doesn't, especially considering a number of long term unemployed people are likely to never own a property in their life time.

by JimboJones | 6th Nov 24, 1:04pm 1730851459

It’s more the fear of losing their job, not many take on more debt then.

But we are talking ourselves into something that isn’t real - this is a lower unemployment rate than most of the JK rock star economy days!

by M0ralHazard | 6th Nov 24, 12:30pm 1730849428

I wonder how much people moving to Aus has kept a lid on unemployment here?

by JimboJones | 6th Nov 24, 1:02pm 1730851320

On the flip side I haven’t heard of a single person that has lost their job (other than here and news etc). That’s the problem with anecdotes.

by Chaosinflesh | 6th Nov 24, 1:29pm 1730852975

I know 4. But not counted because 3 left the country and the other is not actively seeking work.

by interesting1234 | 6th Nov 24, 3:38pm 1730860723

Your echelon of society must be lucky, or in demand then

by aquaman482 | 6th Nov 24, 5:21pm 1730866889

I can tell you of approx 30-40 that have this week, in the insurance industry through a restructure. Im one of them! Some will have redeployment opportunities but not all

by agnostium | 6th Nov 24, 5:41pm 1730868115

Jesus, you must be completely out of touch. It explains why you think things are Hunky Dory.

Ask any transport engineering/planning/civil engineering firm. The redundancies have been brutal. Between 10 and 30% of workforce. Highly skilled. The young ones gone to Aus, Canada and Europe, older folks not worried as they made so much money on their houses going up price they can afford to chill for a bit. Probably why they might not be showing up.

by bookworm69 | 7th Nov 24, 7:57am 1730919476

Now you have - my mid-40s daughter was made redundant yesterday, having always been in a job, both here and overseas since leaving school. And probably no hope of getting another until February or if things suddenly pick up. In fact nobody in our family has ever been made redundant until now.

by WestieAJ | 6th Nov 24, 11:18am 1730845082

A reminder of the definition of the question that is being asked and the response rate is only 80% vs the target of 90%

Employment relates to everyone in the working-age population who did one of the following during the reference week:

 worked for ONE HOUR or more for pay or profit in the context of an employee/employer relationship or self-employment

 worked without pay for one hour or more in work that contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business, or professional practice owned or operated by a relative (before April 1990 this was defined as 15 hours or more)

 had a job but was not at work due to illness or injury, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather or mechanical breakdown, direct involvement in industrial dispute, leave, or holiday.

by boombust00 | 6th Nov 24, 11:18am 1730845094

bye bye Nz residential property market. The great reset is here.

by sgtshortcut | 6th Nov 24, 12:27pm 1730849276

Bold statement…will be interesting to see if it is a “great reset”, or a “decent correction” post that crazy spike on the back of some pretty average policy making dealing with covid…guess next few years will tell us.

by Yvil | 6th Nov 24, 3:31pm 1730860271

Strange post.

How do you conclude "bye bye Nz residential property market. The great reset is here" from the news that unemployment has risen less than expected ? Please explain, or is it just what you would like to happen ?

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Nov 24, 3:49pm 1730861384

Yvil, you really need to uninstall that browser patch. It's rendering you woefully uninformed 😆

by safeashouses | 6th Nov 24, 3:52pm 1730861520

I don't think he is uninformed

by boombust00 | 7th Nov 24, 5:58pm 1730955488

Its not rocket science. This indicator even though unemployment has risen less than "expected" still shows unemployment is on the uptrend. Couple that with all the other pressure like higher interest rates, immigration not looking good, too much private debt, housing stock number for sale flooded the market and cost of living so high (inflation). do you think this helps grow property price or reduce property prices?

by Averageman | 6th Nov 24, 11:21am 1730845301

Less jobs, more receivership's, more skilled workers now in or moving to Straya, record listing of new and existing houses, and lower immigration. All adds up to house speculation being a sucker bet in the near term.

by Noncents | 6th Nov 24, 11:33am 1730845985

The purpose of the RBNZ is too keep the system going. If it looks like failing they will tank rates again.

by sgtshortcut | 6th Nov 24, 4:52pm 1730865126

💯…unfortunately I think you are bang on, I wouldn’t bet against slashed rates, eased lending restrictions and at some point fiscal policy pumping dollars in as well to get everything whirring…primarily construction and property…it might not be good for the long term…but it’ll patch things up nicely for the shorter term 🤷🏻‍♂️

by dumbthoughts | 6th Nov 24, 11:26am 1730845599

Had a meeting with a client yesterday. They are advertising two roles. Over 2000 applicants for these two roles. People showing up at the doorstep dropping off CVs etc - boss man has never seen anything like it he said.

by IT GUY | 6th Nov 24, 11:34am 1730846056

Its going to be a rough H1 2025, the Coalition is going to have to do something to get investment flowing, perhaps infrastructure work.

by dumbthoughts | 6th Nov 24, 11:41am 1730846494

Agreed. Just relying on lower rates to get the everyday Joe spending again won't work if the everyday Joe doesn't have a job from which to earn money.

Real risk for NACT is that you wind up with a nightmare scenario (electorally, guess their donors would be happy though) where you have lower rates juicing the property market because investors can invest more easily, all while the average punter hasn't got a pot to piss in due to job loss etc. Rich get richer, writ large.

If I were advising the government (not that they'd listen to me because why listen to a guy who admits he's a moron) I'd be pushing for big infrastructure projects to get the commercial pipeline flowing, which flows on from there.

by thinktank | 6th Nov 24, 11:34am 1730846099

And 90% of those will be applicants from overseas without any right to work in New Zealand. It happens in every single job ad.

by Yvil | 6th Nov 24, 3:34pm 1730860463

Yes, and they generally wear pink pants, shop at Pak'n Save without paying and don't go to church. See I can make up stuff too. But your post must be true, since your grandma told you.

by Zwifter | 6th Nov 24, 11:59am 1730847542

What was the role ? Must have been a really low skilled one.

by dumbthoughts | 6th Nov 24, 12:07pm 1730848040

One marketing role, one sales role. Good company that pays pretty well from what I can see. The sales role is one of those 'open to people from other industries/backgrounds' which is getting the most applicants, as people who might have lost a job in a totally different line of work presumably feel they should apply.

by Rampart | 6th Nov 24, 12:09pm 1730848154

Both dead industries at the moment. Businesses tightening the purse strings on their advertising budgets. The buyers aren’t there and they know it

by starrider | 6th Nov 24, 1:29pm 1730852950

A good chuck (say 1200 to 1600) will be real estate agents.

by K.W. | 6th Nov 24, 12:11pm 1730848307

How many of those are from overseas though? I've heard that 80-90% of job applicants are wannabe immigrants these days (or those who somehow managed to already be here without an actual job and just waived through with a work visa). If you eliminate all the non-citizen applications, what is the real application rate?

by dumbthoughts | 6th Nov 24, 12:22pm 1730848977

No idea tbh. Not my role/place to ask. I have heard similarly to what you are saying for some jobs though.

The "vibe check" was that they have never had so much choice in good candidates. But also a lot of spray and pray type CVs where people are desperate for any work.

by RookieInvestor | 6th Nov 24, 1:34pm 1730853261

I've heard that 80-90% of job applicants are wannabe immigrants

Correct, that is what i have experienced.

by Chaosinflesh | 6th Nov 24, 1:40pm 1730853602

And after that initial reduction, 95% of our remaining applicants failed our minimum skills check, despite apparently having degrees in the field. I was actually shocked.

by kiwi_overseas | 6th Nov 24, 11:46am 1730846815

Completely self inflicted.

This mess is set out in National’s budget and is a result of their own policy direction.

by GoWokeGobroke | 6th Nov 24, 1:34pm 1730853244

@ kiwi overseas - Are you able to provide that policy of theirs?

by interesting1234 | 6th Nov 24, 4:02pm 1730862138

I believe you mean the RBNZ and the expected recession of the economy after a period of OCR hikes that always ensues. Recession was coming before COVID anyway until they juiced the economy so we are simply reaching what is the inevitable hangover from this after trying to drink the hangover away for a few years away:

See 2008: Note: OCR plummeted from 8.25% May 2008 to 2.5% May 2009 then, as below, the unemployment rose much faster then the prior periods:

Unemployment 2009:

Q1 5%

Q2 5.8%

Q3 6.2%

Q4 6.6%

OCR 0.25% September 2021 hiked to 5.5% May 2023

Unemployment 2023:

Q1 3.4%

Q2 3.6%

Q3 3.9%

Q4 4%

2024

Q1 4.4%

Q2 4.6%

Q3 4.8%

After the GFC unemployment stayed at around 6% until Q1 2013 and although the current spike in unemployment isn't near at the trajectory as 2008-2009, one can infer that there is potentially another 2 years of economic woes to come unless we have some form of resurrection via infrastructure spending by Govt, or we may simply potter along with less businesses and an unemployment level of ~5-6% for longer than this without the govt input. Time will tell, It's interesting to hear everyone's interpretations of the data and the economic situation of the times when each of these downturns hit. Place your bets

by Redcastle | 6th Nov 24, 12:26pm 1730849211

Are more people 'withdrawing from the labour market' because they're hitting retirement age?

by WestieAJ | 6th Nov 24, 12:34pm 1730849641

Last 5 months saw an overall reduction in filled jobs of 31,000.

30,000 of those missing jobs were in the <35 age group.

The over 65's actually gained 617 jobs.

60-64 only lost 170 jobs.

by Chaosinflesh | 6th Nov 24, 1:35pm 1730853318

Was there a corresponding uptick in <35 unemployment? Or is this hidden by emigration?

by sharetrader | 6th Nov 24, 8:12pm 1730877140

i know a few of us in the 60-65 age that have quit work but are not applying for unemployment as we have retired early and are using our property to fund that in various ways

so we wont be counted on any measure until we start collecting super

by Pragmatist | 7th Nov 24, 12:06am 1730891176

Yes, you will still be included in the labour force statistics, you will be measured in the labour force participation rate as not participating.

by John from Bunnings | 6th Nov 24, 12:30pm 1730849409

Been calling the unthinkable soft landing for a while now. Things are playing out nicely to my expectations.

by M0ralHazard | 6th Nov 24, 12:35pm 1730849745

We have been in a per-capita recession for two years. I don't think this counts as a soft landing

by John from Bunnings | 6th Nov 24, 1:39pm 1730853599

It's a soft landing compared to the other outlandish predictions made on this site.

by JimboJones | 6th Nov 24, 2:08pm 1730855287

A while back I was asked what I defined as a soft landing and I said unemployment < 5%. I think it will go higher than that but probably not by much. Maybe a medium landing

by Averageman | 6th Nov 24, 2:08pm 1730855338

Recessionary impact depends on wether you are laid off, or been declared bankrupt. Duval property owners, creditors, and staff not feeling great right now as an example.

by JimboJones | 6th Nov 24, 2:24pm 1730856290

It needs to be judged by the overall numbers. You can't call it a hard landing just because Dave at the butchers got laid off. Even in the best times companies can go under and people can lose their jobs.

I guess the question is whether you judge it by GDP, unemployment, or other. GDP has been pretty bad, unemployment pretty good so far.

by RookieInvestor | 6th Nov 24, 1:55pm 1730854531

i would consider this a relatively soft land so far, still time to come but from people i have talked to its not as bad as some think.

unemployment is low, liquidations are low compared to GFC.

by Murray Falconer | 6th Nov 24, 12:48pm 1730850507

Not only are more Kiwis out of work, they are staying unemployed for longer. The number of people who have been without a job for over six months was up more than 50% annually.

Not surprising when even those that pay for a job aren't able to get enough hours:

Chinese workers still waiting for answers a year after investigation began | RNZ News

by MikeM | 6th Nov 24, 1:44pm 1730853863

Not too bad but underutilisation still climbing though. This is equivalent to U6 in the US which they use as their benchmark.

by Pragmatist | 6th Nov 24, 3:19pm 1730859550

Err, not according to statsNZ

The underutilisation rate was 11.6 percent in the September 2024 quarter. This compares with 11.8 percent in the June 2024 quarter. Underutilisation is a broad measure of untapped labour market capacity that includes unemployed and underemployed people along with the potential labour force.

It fell for 0.8% for women, and increased 0.2% for men. Its the first fall, so we'll have to see if this is sustained over the next couple of quarters.

by Baywatch | 6th Nov 24, 8:23pm 1730877824

On the right track ....what's next oysters in first class?

by kiwi_overseas | 6th Nov 24, 10:54pm 1730886883

by kiwimummma | 7th Nov 24, 5:50pm 1730955050

So actually 32.2% unemployed NOT the headline statistic of 4.8%. ie the difference between 100% and the employment rate of 67.8% and 100%.

by Takere | 9th Nov 24, 11:08am 1731103680

MSD quarterly report: 11.8% receiving income.