Population gain from migration dropped below 1000 in December

Economy / news

The outflow of NZ citizens appears to have peaked while inflows of foreign migrants have declined

17th Feb 25, 11:51am by Greg Ninness

The estimated population gain from migration slumped dramatically to under 1000 in December.

Statistics NZ estimates New Zealand's population increase from migration was just 976 in December last year, down from 4216 (-77%) in December 2023, and 9025 (-89%) in December 2022.

Leaving aside the period from April 2020 to June 2022, in which migration patterns were seriously disrupted by pandemic travel restrictions, the December 2024 net migration gain was the lowest for that month since December 2012.

There was little change in the travel patterns of NZ citizens in December 2024 compared to December 2023.

An estimated 3337 NZ citizens arrived back in the country after an extended stay overseas in December 2024, compared to 3008 in December 2023.

Conversely, 6453 NZ citizens left long-term in December 2024 compared to 6605 in December 2023. That meant a net loss of 3116 NZ citizens in December 2024 compared to a net loss of 3597 NZ citizens in December 2023.

However, there were some big changes in the migration patterns for non-NZ citizens in December.

The number of non-NZ citizens arriving long-term dropped from 12,078 in December 2023 to 10,449 in December 2024 (-13.5%). Meanwhile, the estimated number of non-NZ citizens who departed long-term increased from 4264 in December 2023 to 6357 in December 2024 (+49%).

That meant there was a net loss of 3116 NZ citizens in December 2024, and a net gain 4092 citizens of other countries, giving a total net gain of 974 for the month.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

114 Comments

by Toye | 17th Feb 25, 11:55am 1739746518

Going towards 0.

Who is going to buy the houses?

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 11:57am 1739746658

Foreign Buyers..... ah I mean investors...

by Weld | 17th Feb 25, 12:03pm 1739747012

Is a society that depends on immigration to keep its population growing sustainable? What are the effects of cultural dilution on national cohesiveness? (If I were an activist who self-identifies as Maori, I would be concerned!)

by Eschaton | 17th Feb 25, 12:32pm 1739748732

Birth rates are so low in many countries, the alternative is contraction. This is THE issue of this century, especially in tandem with climate refuge.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 1:10pm 1739751040

One gets the impression that a rather than holding the younger generations up by their ankles and shaking them down to fleece them of their wealth, a better economic policy approach may have been in order. One that rewards people for productive enterprise while making NZ a reasonably affordable place to live.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 17th Feb 25, 1:50pm 1739753429

Trump-Musk are turning the US to a massive business - one that is rapidly sucking up all the best global talent (particularly Ai and space developers), doing deals to buy the rights to other countries valuable resources.

The USA is directing the profits of this enterprise directly to their elite (darwinism accelerated) via corporations, all this whilst smashing their national operating costs (DOGE) and making their economy fire at the expense of all others.... and with a huge AI military spend that will defend the elite as they build their walled cities.

We (and most of the rest of the world) will not even see it happening til its too late to react. NZ needs to wake up and develop its own national business strategy or become a farm and spaceport to serve the USA.

by nightstalker | 18th Feb 25, 9:46am 1739825160

This may be Trumps and Musks wet dream but it ain't going to happen.

Both of them are not concerned with facts & reality and albeit our understanding of the laws of physics can be bend somewhat (like landing rocket boosters on drone ships) they will achieve the exact opposite and crash America's economy and global power.

True power doesn't lie in dominating everybody else through fear and intimidation but to build strong alliances and a cohesive & collaborative society which desires to build, invent, create and share prosperity.

by RickStrauss | 18th Feb 25, 4:36pm 1739849791

Yep, their delivery does not resemble their sales pitch.

by Llama_360 | 17th Feb 25, 3:54pm 1739760882

As PDK would say, we young people have not been just been fleeced of our wealth. We have also been made to promise away our future wealth (if any).

by Slapheid | 17th Feb 25, 1:28pm 1739752083

Could allow the various organisations involved in our meth trade to use the optional "Rinse Cycle" in the property market. (Assuming we don't already do this....?)

by singautim | 17th Feb 25, 3:14pm 1739758477

1000 new arrivals ==> 350 new houses? Say 4,000 new houses per annum with about 3,000 in Auckland.

by Qupi | 17th Feb 25, 12:02pm 1739746943

Let's have a stacked chart of in/out and net please.

by JRSNZ | 17th Feb 25, 12:11pm 1739747477

There is one here by citizenship if that's what you mean: https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/net-migration-falls-in-2024/

by Qupi | 17th Feb 25, 12:42pm 1739749326

What I want to see is the whole picture on a temporal scale. Over time how many kiwis are leaving and being replaced by uber drivers? Net migration pretends we are all the same which is bs.

by JRSNZ | 17th Feb 25, 2:53pm 1739757186

Agreed. Would also want to see which of the NZ-citizens are NZ born vs those who've gained citizenship just to get into Australia.

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 12:28pm 1739748505

Just 974 gain on a population of 5 million. It's basically a lockdown, no one in, no one out. So, we're counting on our birthrate and low-wage economy during a recession to prop up the housing market.

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 1:23pm 1739751822

Hmmm…that’s a fair comparison…& what happened when they “stimulated” as a result of the lockdowns 🤦🏻‍♂️

🪓🪓🪓📉📉📉

Might not happen…could happen, wouldn’t be the greatest idea, does Mr Orr have a track record for great ideas…jeez, who knows 😂

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 2:09pm 1739754576

The next crisis will be for those who borrowed during ultra-low rates.

I need to check how many central banks are still cutting their balance sheets. The Fed is still planning to reverse what it printed during the pandemic:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-sees-ways-go-shrinking-f…

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 3:01pm 1739757708

Yep, but we’re a tad more f*^ked I reckon Kraker, our team need to tread carefully…I understand the hate you, & a lot of others on here have for the “ponzi”, but cheering for the death of property & cheering for the death of NZ Inc shouldn’t be the same thing.

I’m seriously lost on how helpful house prices at 4-to-1 income ratios will be if we have no jobs, I’m not sure on the fix…but I reckon aiming for a long period of keeping house prices flat while getting incomes growing surely has to be the goal…or f*^k it, let’s torch this b*tch to the ground ☄️🔥🫡😂

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 3:27pm 1739759245

We'll be choosing to sacrifice younger generations for 30-40 years if we take the approach of throwing more taxpayer money and policy at holding prices up until incomes catch up. It's a pretty raw deal, this new Muldoonism of price protection.

In previous market crashes (e.g. shares) there have been rough times for some years, but new shoots and new more productive enterprises afterward as people refocus on things that aren't pure speculation.

by singautim | 17th Feb 25, 3:28pm 1739759289

House prices at 4-to-1 or say $250,000 for a 2 or 3 bedroom decent place in Auckland would be great for our economy. Why dash to Australia or London to spend half your income on rent when you can invest in your own place in beautiful NZ. Those kind of prices would reduce rents by at least half so working Kiwis would have more to spend. Spending in NZ equates to more new jobs. Also the chance to start new businesses - low property costs are a bonus for entrepreneurs.

I'll declare self interest - four adult children and one is already in Australia. The other three are talented, hard working, above average wages but with not even a dream of buying in NZ. Kill hopuse prices and I'll be much poorer but seeing my kids in their own homes would make me happier.

House prices are too high - kids are forced by finance to live with parents and then pushed overseas to earn more. Return to the time when manual labourers bought their own homes and usually had one income and a partner at home with the kids.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 3:56pm 1739760964

The average mortgage is somewhere around $400K and you think the cutting their home value down to a quarter would be good for the economy?

this would result is the majority of the country foreclosing on their loans and economic destruction.

What do you think will happen to all those people who loose hundreds of thousands of dollars? do you think they will want to stay in New Zealand?

oh but at least YOUR children could afford a house. what about other peoples children that have houses and will not after the banks take it from them?

i think your view is very selfish

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 4:23pm 1739762589

I will probably be buying before we see 75% drops from here Rookie... I do not think that your doomsday will occur

average AUCKLAND house is 1mil its not going to 250... but it could easily drop into the 700s from here.

you can do a cashflow for a rental but the houses at the 1.8mil mark, its all about what money the buyer has.... there is no way 1.8mil stacks up at 4-5% as a viable rental. at 4% you would need almost a $1600 per week rent?

you do not get much for 1.8 in akl

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 5:02pm 1739764956

700-800k average house price in Auckland would be amazing. If it went lower, interest rates would be above 10%, and the prophecy would be fulfilled.

A 200-300k drop from here is very much needed.

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 4:46pm 1739763996

“Those kind of prices would reduce rents by at least half so working Kiwis would have more to spend“…ah ha, but Sig says this would happen to rents so how does it stack up now 😂

Clearly I’m now being a dick, but hey, it’s started a conversation 🤷🏻‍♂️

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 4:42pm 1739763742

It's pretty selfish for our policy makers and executors to be throwing younger generations under the bus to prop up property, in fairness.

91% of their New Zealand mortgage book has an LVR of 80% or less, so NZ could certainly afford a significant price drop.

by unaha-closp | 17th Feb 25, 5:44pm 1739767463

Getting rid of the silly MDRS restrictions imposed by Luxon/Seymour would mean:

1. The values of the land under existing houses would increase (good news for current owners).

2. The per unit cost of new houses reduced as 8 new houses get built where one used to sit (good news for prospective owners).

Both the present and the future would benefit, but we are governed very poorly.

by singautim | 17th Feb 25, 9:04pm 1739779494

In North Shore 8 new town houses replacing a single house is common. With luck they are better houses - better insulation, better electricity, more than the single toilet, fancy kitchen, etc. However I live in the 1960's stand alone weatherboard house and much as I like my neighbours having them out of sight and generally out of earshot is how we prefer it. Having a garden and room to park several vehicles is a positive. I'd never buy a garden gnome but at least that is my choice.

by interesting1234 | 18th Feb 25, 6:49am 1739814567

Overly dramatic post. Many are mortgage free and would not foreclose on anything, plus no losses occur unless the house sells. We also have a pension system which disregards any assets and is supposed to allow a basic standard of living so not having a reverse mortgage opportunity simplu means less luxuries in old age.

I think your view is based on your vested interest in wanting to be a property investor and is more so at the benefit to yourself than the benefit of NZ’s children and their children.

Society is better off having families close for support and for communities to thrive. Think of the additional costs to the healthcare sector and ACC if more and more oldies have no kids around for natural supports as well, placing further costs on future generations.

by RookieInvestor | 18th Feb 25, 8:06am 1739819178

1/3 of the country have a mortgage? What would happen to the banks if half their lending books went into negative equity? do you think it would be good for the economy?

I think your view is based on your vested interest in wanting to be a property investor and is more so at the benefit to yourself than the benefit of NZ’s children and their children.

I think you're making assumptions here, right my name is RI but i invest in other assets aside from being a FHB.

sure i agree with the premise of having more children and those children being able to afford houses, but there are other ways of doing that rather than crashing house prices to 25%

by interesting1234 | 18th Feb 25, 12:39pm 1739835598

Many keep their mortgages from bein discharged to have access to revolving credit, and the fact that someone's house may drop in value to lower than the price they have paid is not the end of the world, it simply mean that their ingrained cultural belief of never ending increases based on the last 35 years is flawed and showing recency bias. They would still have the asset, irrespective of money, and be able to shelter themselves and go about their lives as per usual. If they sold for a loss ten theybuy into the same market, so it is again relative.

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 4:42pm 1739763747

What would happen to the economy on that path down…you say “I’ll be much poorer”, yep, as with the other 66% of NZ’ers who own houses. I’m not cheering for property, but I’m lost on how this works out…do the 34% prop up the economy? Where does the economy grow? Someone offers $251K…how do you cap this, or once your kids have brought are happy for the cycle to ramp up again?

I get it, I’ve got kids too, but surely improving incomes to improve affordability beats smashing property down, clearly I’m missing some basic fundamentals here.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 5:08pm 1739765313

other 66% of NZ’ers who own houses

They'll still own their property. From what I gather you're suggesting that if one person buys a house for $1M and at a later date someone else buys a very similar house next door for $250K they should be instead made to pay $1M because the first person got a really bad deal.

How does that make anyone richer (other than the banks?

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 5:19pm 1739765946

Nope…I’m saying for the 66% they would have negative equity up the wahzoo (from their on doing, yep) which would then leave them to sell & crystallise that loss or hold but have a few decades getting back into a positive position…either way it would take a lot of $$ out of the economy…creating carnage…maybe…not sure, can’t imagine it’ll be rainbow’s & lollipops however 😂

by the Joneses | 17th Feb 25, 5:30pm 1739766646

The current situation isn't rainbows and lollipops either.

A large proportion of home owners have small or no mortgages, so they would not be materially affected.

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 6:12pm 1739769131

Valid point, I don’t think the now is super awesome & I haven’t said that it is…I’m just trying to understand how everything gets better if house prices plummet…long term sustainable affordability is different, but plummet = good has me lost

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 6:33pm 1739770439

Because in the scenario I gave the person who paid $1M lost that money when they overpaid. It's a sunk cost, they lost the money the moment they gambled on house prices going up (or if they think it was a fair price and they were happy to pay it no harm done)

If the house next door is now selling for $250 then an engineer/doctor/teacher might decide to stay as they do not need to spend as much money on housing and thus the lower salaries compared to OZ become more attractive.

Person 1 is still f***Ed as they always were going to be. Person 2 is much better off and so is NZ.

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 7:03pm 1739772197

Yep, I get that & agree those who buy at $250K will be happy…I’m asking what happens to the economy on the path to your scenario…let’s say over the next 24 months house prices fall a further 72% (gets us to that $250K)…what happens…do you think it won’t have any negative impact?

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 7:23pm 1739773402

If course there will be a negative impact. There was always going to be a negative impact once house prices got out of control. There is no soft landing. We borrowed shit loads on money from Australian banks to go to the pokies and now we're going to have to pay it back. Borrowing more at a slower rate is not going to help. There is no path that doesn't result in negative outcomes.

The sooner the full crash plays out the sooner a reset is possible. The bigger the crash the less likely the same situation will repeat again in the near future.

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 7:33pm 1739773990

Love the pokies analogy…always gamble the feature! 😂

I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one, I think the negative outcomes would be catastrophic, and I’m not sure NZ Inc would recover.

I’ve enjoyed the chat though, nice to keep it civil & express ones views 🤝🤝🤝

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 10:43pm 1739785434

Roger that! Have a good one.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 7:30pm 1739773858

we have problems at 40-45% from peak.... banks will have issues

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 10:48pm 1739785681

To be clear, I don't think they'll drop to 25% of the peak value, that was just picking extreme numbers.

I'm just not sure how flat prices with real values declining slowly is better than getting it over an done with quickly.

by 1harlow1 | 18th Feb 25, 3:41pm 1739846505

The problem is that person 1 now owes the bank 750K for nothing. Person 1 now declares themself bankrupt. The bank can only recoup 250k from what they've paid. This would be happening everywhere. Bank gets into trouble and goes under.

Person 2 (me) is sensibly sat on a large deposit biding time to buy. Now lose all deposit as bank holding fails. Nobody has any spare capital. Deflation occurs.

I'm all for more reasonable house prices, in fact I'm expecting and waiting for it. But a major crash would not be a good outcome. Further moderate falls and a period of stagnation against wage increases is the answer..!

by Lanche | 18th Feb 25, 10:41am 1739828486

Its an interesting perspective

I know a few of us over here in Brisbane who a relatively young early 40’s who all own houses mortgage free

We view our house as a home, not an investment. We all agree a material drop in house prices is a good thing, and I would actually be happy if they did, because none of us live for the misery of our children or anyone elses.

If it fell in price, cool, the next house purchase would also be cheaper, if it rises, it screws our kid’s generation from owning or directing resources to productive enterprise.

How does a drop in home prices negatively impact the economy? I would argue high house prices add no real wealth to homeowners and just force more income to be directed away from the economy towards just having a place to live in for younger people.

When you basically now need rich home owning parents to afford a reasonable house, the system is broken.

by dollar_bill | 18th Feb 25, 12:41pm 1739835672

Great post. The cost of shelter is "killing" the economy and turning us all into slaves of capital and of asset hoarders.

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 4:00pm 1739761240

I actually think it’s the central banks that’ll torch it to the ground, under the narrative of, deglobalisation, supply chain disruptions, tariffs, inflation, and reduced government spending. We’ve had many elections shift power from the left cheek to the right cheek of the same arse. The right will push austerity while central banks cut liquidity. Deflationary bust for assets.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 4:06pm 1739761611

but I reckon aiming for a long period of keeping house prices flat while getting incomes growing surely has to be the goal

as a sane market participant I would immediately sell and invest elsewhere for the required 20-30 years, those sellers causing the same falls that happen in a crash, its like the bond market,. its like the bond market , you could hold till maturity or take a haircut now and find something else to invest in....

in fact we are starting to see that now, but buyers are not playing ball, and sellers are pretending that listings are not piling up...

by sgtshortcut | 17th Feb 25, 4:43pm 1739763833

“immediately sell and invest elsewhere for the required 20-30 years”…overseas, or in NZ?

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 7:38pm 1739774284

That would depend of your personal circumstances, its considered personal financial advice.,

god damn I hate eLearn courses

by Davo36 | 17th Feb 25, 2:55pm 1739757325

When did 1000 net a month become a low number?

Where are we going to house those 1000 people?

What we need is about -50,000 per year for about 10 years to get things back to normal.

by singautim | 17th Feb 25, 3:30pm 1739759442

An attractive idea but you would end up with more zombie towns and Auckland creeping larger and more congested. Still it is better having Auckland getting worse more slowly.

by interesting1234 | 17th Feb 25, 12:22pm 1739748133

They're realising the job market is shot and the healthcare isn't quite living up to what one would expect. Word is clearly getting out NZ isn't the greatest place currently

by Weld | 17th Feb 25, 1:28pm 1739752096

"... NZ isn't the greatest place currently."

That may be so, but when NZ citizenship opens the door to Australia and other economies offering greater earnings potential for the go-getters, you can put up with the present downsides of life in the Land of the Wrong White Crowd.

by interesting1234 | 17th Feb 25, 3:21pm 1739758879

That's been a constant even to get PR here so they can go to Oz and have instant PR there. Citizenship will be a dangled carrot yes, but not a significant enough change in my view

by K.W. | 17th Feb 25, 4:59pm 1739764760

You cant get PR in Australia from being PR in New Zealand. Its citizen, or partner of a citizen.

by Greeneggsandham | 17th Feb 25, 12:22pm 1739748168

The rental markets going to be cooked with all these new build townhouses and no migrants to rent them. There was a commentator on her who mentioned the trend of net migration was going to possibly turn negative this year based on the forecast data. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

by Eschaton | 17th Feb 25, 12:33pm 1739748835

I'd be pivoting to standalone houses if i were a developer

by HughJorgan | 17th Feb 25, 12:36pm 1739748980

I am one of those banging on about a declining population. Our standard of living has declined too much and the climate is generally not attractive.

It will be interesting to see how much momentum this gathers, successive quarters etc.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 3:05pm 1739757923

As I look over the hills in peak summer...I see squalls of rain and it's blowing like hell. NZ summer is unlike the postcards.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 5:11pm 1739765517

It's actually pretty nice to have a mix of rain and beautiful sunny days IMHO. I've lived places where the summer is 3-4 months or relentless sun and it's dry and oppressive, the rain keeps things green and fresh.

by Houses Overpriced | 17th Feb 25, 12:45pm 1739749519

Did someone rightly say there will be negative migration by Feb 25?

976 in Dec, 0 in Jan, -500 by feb

by kraken | 17th Feb 25, 12:50pm 1739749822

NZ could become 'net exporter' of population

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/top/540471/nz-could-become-net-exporter-of-p…

by Davo36 | 17th Feb 25, 2:56pm 1739757381

After 15 years of mass incoming immigration, I hope so.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 3:07pm 1739758022

yes this is the plan. Increase our exports! Send the best product we have, keep the less desirable for local consumption.

by mfd | 17th Feb 25, 4:01pm 1739761274

Oh God, a country full of the human equivalent of mild cheddar and tough steak.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 4:21pm 1739762495

..more like kfc and burger king

by Greeneggsandham | 17th Feb 25, 1:25pm 1739751955

Yes Q1-2 was what I remembered their general argument being. Let’s be real here, NZ relies on net migration to continue a growth economy. We are already seeing per capita metrics declining so if net migration goes negative, the economy is toast. The last of the boomers retirement plans do kind of hinge on being able to offload their properties at a good capital gain or have tenants rent for the cash flow. If either go south, it could get ugly fast. You can see why the chat of overseas investment is building up as the credit creation domestically won’t sustain it.

by Chaosinflesh | 17th Feb 25, 12:56pm 1739750197

Be interesting to know how many of the 211k given PR have left for Australia. Not that Aus would mind, given their insane immigration settings also.

by ikimpaul | 17th Feb 25, 1:17pm 1739751424

this is actually a serious question - I became a kiwi citizen a couple of years ago. At my citizenship ceremony i overhead a couple of people talking about how now they had their NZ citizenship they were off over to Australia. We often think that those kiwis heading across the ditch are all born here but in reality there would be a number of migrants using NZ as a stepping stone to get into Australia.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 1:20pm 1739751648

this definitely is a thing. in my engineering class 10 out 12 were indian, 8 of them said they were only here to get to Australia.

NZ also uses it to justify tertiary education as the can charge them 3 or 4 x the nz citizen cost.

by The Man3 | 17th Feb 25, 1:25pm 1739751925

From what I can see there must be s lot of engineering classes!

by Greeneggsandham | 17th Feb 25, 1:28pm 1739752131

It’s very common Rookie. They don’t call NZ the backdoor to Australia for nothing. No hate on the immigrants, go to the country where you think you can build the best future for yourself and your family.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 5:14pm 1739765650

Interesting, of the young NZ engineer's that left from my firm, they were all NZ born.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 5:22pm 1739766167

irrelevant to the original question.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 6:40pm 1739770831

Calm down, it was just a comment in response to your observation. I wasn't responding to any questions.

You seem pretty stressed.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 25, 10:29pm 1739784599

He’s probably talking about second tier computer engineering courses.

There’s no classes in university engineering courses with 12 students!

by Chaosinflesh | 18th Feb 25, 12:03am 1739790181

Most of my honours engineering courses had 6-8 students. The comp sci ones occasionally had more. None of them were imports.

The cyber security ones, however, were 30+ and nearly all international students (I think only 2 of us were kiwis, from memory).

And as someone who dedicated a whole year to my thesis, I cannot say how much I detest the taught Masters international student money-grab that devalued my qualification 😡

by interesting1234 | 17th Feb 25, 3:24pm 1739759070

If they have kids in Oz then their kids become a NZ citizen by descent also, they simply have to register the citizenship and get them a passport with one simple form. This only goes one generation however, so if those kids then had kids in Oz they could not pass their NZ Citizenship (by descent) to their kids.

by kiwiriwi | 17th Feb 25, 10:16pm 1739783781

That's not true, any NZ citizen's offspring will also be a NZ citizen, NZ doesn't allow anyone to become stateless.

by interesting1234 | 18th Feb 25, 9:12am 1739823124

any NZ citizen's offspring will also be a NZ citizen

Factually incorrect. If a child is born overseas and has one parent who is a citizen by grant or by birth then that child is a citizen by descent, however this child cannot pass this to their children as they did not obtain it by birth or grant. They can apply but it doesn't get granted often. I used to work at DIA and it astounded me the amount of NZ citizens in this predicament. Born in Oz, had to fly to NZ at short notice for a funeral, only to find their own young child cannot get NZ citizenship and a passport through them as the parents were a citizen by descent.

See here

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 12:57pm 1739750275

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/losing-our-young-people-new-stats-r…

Looks like the evidence supports the anecdata supplied by people here that it is young people leaving. As I've said before, my firm has lost over a third of the qualified but more junior staff. They left because they saw National undoing the good housing and transport stuff (to be fair that is the industry we work in so they would have been more attuned to it) that had started under National previously and continued under Labour. No faith in the NACTNZF leadership.

by Baywatch | 17th Feb 25, 1:07pm 1739750823

But surely increasing speed limits would be a major drawcard for young people to stay....especially around schools? /sarc

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 25, 1:12pm 1739751127

I can't believe the slogans instead of delivery didn't grab them.

by The Man3 | 17th Feb 25, 1:24pm 1739751853

You think that Labour did a good job with housing?

Are you serious, they set the country back decades with mismanagement of the whole economy.

As for leaving to go to Australia, things are financially harder on people there.

Currently in Oz on holiday and I can assure you that cost of living is higher in the cities.

They have more issues than Nz does and with current government they nave no show of improving things.

by Jesse1 | 17th Feb 25, 2:02pm 1739754123

Two quick points.

National proposed many policies that were clearly to help property investors and some against renters. It was pretty much: "We are here for those older and already wealthy"

Of course the cost of living is more in Australian cities (mainly just rental costs)- but Kiwis will usually still have much more left at the end of the month considering their incomes. This is what matters.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 5:24pm 1739766292

A few have come back to visit and I'm in touch with the rest. This is exactly what they are saying (Oz, Europe and Canada), they are actually making it sound pretty tempting.

Like I've said before they are qualified and talented young professionals, they're not going over and flipping burgers. I have no idea whether low qualified jobs work out better, judging by recent articles on stop-go roles I suspect it may also work out better.

by Hans Brink | 17th Feb 25, 2:08pm 1739754526

Yeah sort of agree with you theman, but the evidence of the people I know who have moved to Aus is they have achieved a lot more than if they had stayed here.

I know of some who have sold up upon retirement and moved to Aus and claim it was their best ever decision.

Edit. Just to be clear, we have no intention of leaving NZ. Awesome place to live even if one has not a lot.

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 25, 3:09pm 1739758193

And pretty awesome where you are...unless you have hitched your saddle and ridden to town eh!

by Hans Brink | 17th Feb 25, 5:44pm 1739767440

Still here up in the hills rastus

by Brocky | 17th Feb 25, 2:41pm 1739756465

Are you down in Melbourne?

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 5:20pm 1739766009

You think that Labour did a good job with housing?

It doesn't matter what I think, I'm still here.

They left, take it up with them.

by RookieInvestor | 17th Feb 25, 5:25pm 1739766319

You know who didn't leave, all those families and poor children thrown into motels for emergency housing.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 6:44pm 1739771088

No idea what you're on about.

Maybe take a break from the forum, it doesn't seem to be doing your mental health any good.

I say this without any hint of malice, I've found myself getting pretty angry on here sometimes and decided to take a break, it helped. Stay well.

by Hans Brink | 17th Feb 25, 1:54pm 1739753671

People arriving and then leaving disillusioned is nothing new. My mother worked in the Swedish consulate for many years and people from many parts of Europe wanted out after trying to assimilate. Some went back but most went to Aus.

by Pragmatist | 17th Feb 25, 1:51pm 1739753498

What is the sum of actual border crossings in the period?

Edit: the actual net border crossings in December was +12,831 arrivals. So seasonal adjustments and guesses as to who was a long term departure are doing some heavy lifting.

And January is even worse; over the December January period there is a net gain of ~40,000 people. 1.38m arrived, 1.34m departed.

Border crossings for Feb24 to Jan 25 inclusive are a net gain of 22,671.

by Chaosinflesh | 17th Feb 25, 2:12pm 1739754732

Compare that to last year and the year before though. There's always a bulge Oct-March - not sure, but I think it's fruit pickers, rich euros on holiday, and students.

Last year went deeply negative earlier on than historically.

by Pragmatist | 17th Feb 25, 6:54pm 1739771661

I charted and compared the full data from the stats press release page. 2024 is very similar to 2018 and 2019, and yes, its goes more negative than 2023 in March April and May, but otherwise very similar.

https://imgur.com/a/wG6AWXY

Fyi 2018 and 2019 had net migration of 50k and 70k, so not the insanity of 120k of 2023, but still significant and way higher than it should be.

by huttman | 17th Feb 25, 1:44pm 1739753079

look at the figures in 2012, 4 years after GFC.

by Small Kev | 17th Feb 25, 1:55pm 1739753719

Just so people know most recent headlines are to suit the up coming interest rate cuts and doesn’t not reflect what is really happening out there.

by safeashouses | 17th Feb 25, 2:01pm 1739754108

This gives Adrian the OK to drop by 0.75 :) Lets go

by Zachary Smith | 17th Feb 25, 3:07pm 1739758067

Fingers crossed.

by Brocky | 17th Feb 25, 4:19pm 1739762386

It's good that "diversity" is increasing with all the kiwis fleeing. Right?

by K.W. | 17th Feb 25, 5:12pm 1739765549

Lots of people leaving on a 461 visa to Australia. This is the "Partner of a NZ Citizen" visa for non-NZ citizens. You didnt think those 10,000 Filipino nurses came to NZ to actually work as a nurse did you?

by Pragmatist | 17th Feb 25, 7:01pm 1739772097

Where are these numbers? A quick search and the only data I found was an official info request that put it at an average of 2,000/year from 2018 - 2023, that's granted applications.

by K.W. | 18th Feb 25, 4:27pm 1739849229

Borders were closed for 2.5 of those 5 years.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 25, 7:41pm 1739774466

I know an exact case, he got NZ Residency as a quantity surveyor in boom times, she a nurse (only here 12 months)

Off they went last week... played a great game

by ghytresd | 17th Feb 25, 6:50pm 1739771423

Everyone must go!

by agnostium | 17th Feb 25, 10:50pm 1739785849

So good.

by rolande | 17th Feb 25, 7:53pm 1739775228

I think that mid to long term we do need some population increase, but it would be nice to have a few years at least of minimal growth so we can catch up on infrastructure delivery to cater for the backlog and future increases

by nightstalker | 18th Feb 25, 10:05am 1739826333

Both are unrelated to one another, the infrastructure deficit we suffer is not caused by immigration but decades of under investment.

If it wasn't for the idiotic govt of the day, we would have had some chance on catching up on infrastructure like consolidated water entities, better sea link between North & South island and lots of other upgrades like hospitals and modernised schools.

Sadly, big tax cuts for the rich and few scraps for bottom feeders won.

by K.W. | 18th Feb 25, 4:28pm 1739849309

We had several years of closed borders and minimal growth. Did it help? Or did house prices, rents go up while everything else turned to crap?

by KiwiinSpain | 17th Feb 25, 7:56pm 1739775397

Good readership, let's ponder how anesthetized the cavalry has become to mass movement of its Citizens.

Here I reside in beautiful QLD where similar age parents lament their kids moving to the Sunshine Coast, all of 1.5hrs drive Thursday afternoon peak hour traffic.

Over my many years in health dealing with elderly I loss count of the sadness of the elderly whose kids has all flown the coup and country.

Wave after wave of political snakery makes no difference, at least as far as I can ascertain.

So my challenge is, given this cohort of readers (and token trolls) are financially savvy, what can really be done to turn the tide?

And even more importantly, CAN it be done?

Because, I'm stumped. Completely.

by cutu.sen | 19th Feb 25, 12:21pm 1739920892

It is the end… this place don’t let people save money … they steal everything from workers and pay themselves hugely and spend on funny projects to create jobs to fit people in elite classes. So far every thing was made by creating debts on immigrants and making them work for free.