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Estimated net migration turned negative in May as more people left the country long term than arrived

Economy / news
Estimated net migration turned negative in May as more people left the country long term than arrived
Departure sign

Population growth from migration stalled in May, with slightly more people leaving the country long term than arrived here.

Statistics NZ estimates 9013 people arrived in this country long term in May, while 9111 departed long term, giving a net loss of 99 people for the month.

However a net loss of population from migration is not unusual in the month of May, with a net loss of 1395 people in May last year and a net loss of 31 people in May 2024.

There is still a strong outflow of New Zealand citizens leaving the country, with an estimated 5199, departing long term in May, while 1461, returned to this country after an extended stay overseas, giving a net loss of 3738 NZ citizens for the month.

That was almost entirely balanced by an estimated net gain of 3640 non-NZ citizens for the month.

While May's migration numbers were flat overall, there is strong population growth form migration on an annual basis.

Statistics NZ estimates there was a net population gain 18,813 people in the 12 months to May this year, up by 78% compared to the net gain of 10,550 in the 12 months to May 2025.

In the 12 months to May this year there was a net loss of 36,832 NZ citizens and a net gain of 55,645 non-NZ citizens.

India was the biggest source of migrants in the 12 months to May this year, with a net gain of 11,110 Indian citizens, followed by 9477 citizens of China, 7834 citizens of the Philippines, 4270 from Sri Lanka and 1717 from the USA.

There was a net gain of just 869 Australian citizens during the year while more UK citizens left this country long term than arrived with a net loss of 282 citizens of that country.

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14 Comments

Good. 

The less, the better. 

Indeed, the less, the wealthier the remainder are, per head. 

Translated: Economics is wrong. 

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9

But but ....who will rent all the specu houses?

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8

AI generated bots

Virtual wealth personified

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3

Have already seen a few articles about the use of AI to create mass accounts to chalk up watch time in the likes of youtube, and music streaming services that are monetised. Crazy stuff, but clearly many people are looking at every turn to game the system using it.

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3

If the game is rigged, don't play.

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0

Warren Buffet also seems to take this approach currently with Berkshires' high cash reserves.

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0

Given the 'be afraid when others are greedy' half of his dictum, I'm just waiting for the splat at the end of the AI bubble.

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1

However a net loss of population from migration is not unusual in the month of May, with a net loss of 1395 people in May last year

Nothing to see here folks.

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2

The only thing of notice is that the slump in migration in the past years is not driven by a coherent, progressive, forward-looking government population strategy

It's driven by people either not wanting to live here or not being able to find jobs

I find that quite sad 

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6

What slump in migration ?

"Statistics NZ estimates there was a net population gain 18,813 people in the 12 months to May this year, up by 78% compared to the net gain of 10,550 in the 12 months to May 2025."

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0

The figures show we are continuing to lose our best and brightest, the ambitious, the recently trained and qualified. Essentially our future, the people who will have families, jobs, buys houses and contribute to NZ society like their parents did. These young kiwis are leaving, only returning near retirement after having paid tax in another country. New Zealand is replacing these people with unskilled immigrants from third world countries: cleaners, drivers and cooks while our doctors, nurses, teachers have left.

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4

I've had that conversation with friends whose kids are finishing degrees here and the consensus seems to be that, outside a few niche areas, they're generally planning on leaving so there is the ability to get on to a real career path.

This is an awfully small pond and poor salaries aside, the perception at entry-level in the professions seems to that no-one is really hiring as the state of the economy and AI are doing real damage to entry level jobs, many professions are already overcrowded, and progression relies upon who, not what, you know.

Good article (paywalled) from MIT Tech review about that vital entry level jobs market as they have a lot better data than we do, and will be well ahead in the changes - but we have to address the same set of issues to address the loss of our ambitious and talented and society gets less capable becasue of short-term planning. https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/05/26/1137865/its-time-to-address…

And, unless you're driven, have a vocation or very good, maybe get a trade rather than a degree if you want to stay here?

 

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1

No worries, a Labour govt will just massively increase the number of public servants with otherwise unemployable degrees  funded by public debt again.

And TOP will pay the rest of the population  UBIs funded by theft of other people's property.

"The problem with socialists is that they eventually run out of other people's money"

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1

The trouble with myopic thinkers is that they think money is wealth.

It isn't, and increasingly is getting more 'isn't'. 

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1